MLB Game Overviews

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Updated 20:18 UTC · Odds Updated 20:15 UTC

AI Picks · 7 Bets · Aug 16
Bryan Woo o5.5 Ks (-122)
Woo has struck out 6, 7, and 9 in his three most recent meetings with Houston (7.3 K/gs vs them) and carries a 27.3 K% over his last 3 starts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him the full six innings to get there, and he owns a 2.12 ERA at this park across 3 starts. The market is pricing Houston's low 18.8 team K% over its last 6 over Woo's established, repeated ability to miss bats against this specific roster.
Found at 3:57 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
BAL Team Total o3.5 (-113)
Baltimore sits at 140 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 109 over its last 12 with a 50.4 HH%, an established and hot bat against right-handers. Freddy Peralta has a 4.96 xERA over his last 3 starts, has averaged only 4.6 IP/gs, and gave up 7 ER in one of them. With Peralta not going deep and a Tampa bullpen that has run a 4.84 ERA over its last 12, the price undervalues how many runs this lineup should put up against a struggling righty.
Found at 3:57 AM ET
MIA @ CIN u9.0 (+100)
Eury Perez carries a 2.03 xERA over his last 3 and has held Cincinnati to a 2.70 ERA across his last 2 meetings, facing a CIN lineup at just 54 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6. Miami is a disaster against left-handers at 18 wRC+ with a 45.5 K% over its last 6, and Nick Lodolo owns a 1.80 ERA at home and 2.41 across 2 starts vs Miami. Both bullpens are fresh and effective (CIN 1.92 xERA, MIA 3.59 over their last 12), so the number should sit lower than 9 given two frozen offenses and matching starter edges.
Found at 3:57 AM ET
SDP ML (-108)
Mize has handled this CLE lineup with a 2.46 ERA across his last 3 meetings including a scoreless 7-inning start at this park, and CLE sits at just 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a passive 14.3% strikeout rate. SDP brings an established 131 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 (120 over their last 12) and the far better bullpen (2.27 xERA vs 4.23 over the last 12). Priced as a coin flip, SDP is the stronger side on both run prevention and offense.
Found at 10:15 AM ET
CLE Team Total u3.5 (+105)
Cleveland's bats sit at 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 98 over their last 12 — below average in both windows — and Mize has held this exact lineup to 0, 3 and 2 earned runs across his last 3 meetings with them (2.46 ERA, 6.1 IP/gs). Behind him is a San Diego bullpen at 2.27 xERA over its last 12, and Cleveland is 2-8 at home over its last 10. A +105 price on the under implies this cold lineup clears 3.5 more often than not, which overstates what it has done against this arm and this staff.
Found at 4:18 PM ET
STL Moneyline (+142)
Hunter Dobbins brings a 2.92 xERA over his last 3 and works deep into games, while Edward Cabrera has a 4.35 xERA with a 50 HH% and 12.9 BB% over his last 3, has not started in 54 days, and owns a 12.23 ERA across his last 3 home starts. Cabrera's home collapse plus rust against a Dobbins edge that goes overlooked because St. Louis sits at 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 makes +142 too long for a game closer to a coin flip.
Found at 3:57 AM ET
Logan Henderson o5.5 Ks (+114)
Henderson has struck out 7, 8, and 7 over his last 3 starts on a 32.4% K rate, and his outs line of 16.5 gives him the innings to clear this. LAD sits at a moderate 21.2% strikeout rate vs RHP over their last 6, not contact-heavy enough to derail an arm missing bats at this level. At plus money the market is underpricing a pitcher who has topped this number in every recent outing.
Found at 10:15 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
BAL @ TBR
12:15 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Trevor Rogers L
xERA2.58 (elite)ERA4.50K%27.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%2.9
TBR vs LHP · last 6
wRC+106 (avg)12+86K%20.0 (avg)HH%21.9 (poor)Whiff%19.1
Freddy Peralta R
xERA4.96 (below avg)ERA7.90K%17.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%10.4 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs82BB%6.3
BAL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+145 (elite)12+108K%23.9 (avg)HH%50.5 (elite)Whiff%24.3
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 4.24 (avg)ERA 5.662d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 4.50 (avg)ERA 4.742d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+131+1.5 (-175)O7.5 (-102)TBR-138-1.5 (+155)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL+105+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (+114)TBR-130-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (-125/-105)TBR3.5 (-132/+105)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrevor Rogers4.5 (+118 / -137)17.5 (-130 / +118)Freddy Peralta6.5 (+132 / -154)16.5 (-106 / +120)
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ TBRW6.09867122
Aug 10@ MINL4.07944222
Aug 5vs LAAW6.09393022
Jul 29@ DETW6.09468047
Jul 24vs ATLL7.08866022
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs BALL4.27621322
Aug 10@ ATHW6.09856133
Aug 4@ COLW3.27139177
Jul 26vs LADW4.09336223
Jul 20@ MILL5.110768277
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.16.514.06.71.7(3)
at TBR5.16.514.06.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ TBRW6.09867122
May 18@ TBRL3.28838278
Jul 20@ TBRW6.09135222
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL4.24.292.01.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs BALL4.27621322
home starts4.14.393.73.33.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs BALL4.27621322
Jul 26vs LADW4.09336223
Jul 11vs BOSL4.19263522
Weather · Dome
Flags · 3
  • TBR bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • BAL — Trevor Rogers: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • TBR — Freddy Peralta: 2026-08-04: 7 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 20) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
BAL Team Total o3.5 (-113)
Baltimore sits at 140 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 109 over its last 12 with a 50.4 HH%, an established and hot bat against right-handers. Freddy Peralta has a 4.96 xERA over his last 3 starts, has averaged only 4.6 IP/gs, and gave up 7 ER in one of them. With Peralta not going deep and a Tampa bullpen that has run a 4.84 ERA over its last 12, the price undervalues how many runs this lineup should put up against a struggling righty.
ARI @ ATL
1:35 PM · Truist ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Michael Soroka R
xERA4.29 (avg)ERA0.73K%24.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs55BB%6.7
ATL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+53 (poor)12+81K%27.5 (below avg)HH%41.8 (above avg)Whiff%25.6
Bryce Elder R
xERA4.32 (avg)ERA4.50K%13.0 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%44.1 (below avg)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs88BB%10.4
ARI vs RHP · last 6
wRC+127 (above avg)12+121K%16.3 (above avg)HH%32.1 (below avg)Whiff%17.6
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 3.082d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 3.682d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+114+1.5 (-190)O9.0 (+102)ATL-122-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-102+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-144)ATL-115-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+105/-135)ATL4.5 (+104/-125)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Soroka4.5 (+105 / -122)15.5 (-141 / +108)Bryce Elder3.5 (-146 / +118)17.5 (-106 / -124)
Michael Soroka · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ ATLL5.28056122
Aug 10vs COLW4.17743300
Jun 19vs MINW1.0902000
Jun 13@ CINL7.09372011
Jun 7vs WSNW7.010063211
Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs ARIW6.07554111
Aug 10vs NYML5.0105410377
Aug 5vs MIAW7.08431211
Jul 31vs WSNW6.09334311
Jul 25@ BALL5.09884412
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Soroka
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL4.73.174.04.71.7(3)
at ATL4.63.914.55.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ ATLL5.28056122
Apr 4vs ATLW5.09134311
May 13@ ATLL4.08144122
Bryce Elder
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI6.50.696.54.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs ARIW6.07554111
Apr 4@ ARIL7.08984102
home starts6.04.504.05.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs ARIW6.07554111
Aug 10vs NYML5.0105410377
Aug 5vs MIAW7.08431211
Weather · Hot
94°F, Wind 7 mph NW
Flags · 7
  • ARI — Michael Soroka: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • ATL — Bryce Elder: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • ARI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • ARI — Michael Soroka: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • ATL — Bryce Elder: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • ATL — Bryce Elder: 2026-08-10: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 7 mph from the NW — supports the over and HR props
BOS @ PIT
1:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Patrick Sandoval L
xERA4.92 (below avg)ERA3.38K%22.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%28.3 (elite)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs87BB%12.5
PIT vs LHP · last 6
wRC+106 (avg)12+92K%31.6 (poor)HH%45.8 (elite)Whiff%27.9
Lake Bachar
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
BOS
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 1.99 (elite)ERA 3.352d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 2.57 (elite)ERA 3.202d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS+1160PIT-2100
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-115-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (-106)PIT-104+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+116/-145)2.5 (+124/-160)PIT3.5 (-128/+100)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPatrick Sandoval4.5 (-150 / +124)15.5 (+130 / +128)Lake Bachar
Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ PITL4.08969377
Aug 11@ TORL6.08448324
Aug 4vs CHWW5.08956422
Jul 29@ ATHW5.09275222
Jul 24vs TORW4.28435200
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Patrick Sandoval
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT4.015.756.09.03.0(1)
at PIT4.015.756.09.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ PITL4.08969377
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • BOS — Patrick Sandoval: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • PIT — Lake Bachar: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • BOS bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • PIT bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
NYY @ TOR
1:37 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Ryan Weathers L
xERA2.76 (elite)ERA0.48K%20.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs96BB%10.1
TOR vs LHP · last 6
wRC+87 (below avg)12+68K%13.9 (elite)HH%17.1 (poor)Whiff%13.7
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.33 (elite)ERA2.00K%33.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%2.5 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs104BB%11.1
NYY vs RHP · last 6
wRC+67 (poor)12+79K%24.7 (below avg)HH%50.4 (elite)Whiff%22.8
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 3.672d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.18 (good)ERA 3.722d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-310-1.5 (+1320)O3.5 (+174)TOR+320+1.5 (-10000)U3.5 (-225)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+116+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-106)TOR-145-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY3.5 (+114/-140)1.5 (+105/-135)TOR3.5 (+106/-125)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Weathers4.5 (-140 / +114)17.5 (-108 / -110)Dylan Cease8.5 (-115 / -105)18.5 (+157 / +154)
Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ TORW7.19546111
Aug 11vs SEAW5.210642311
Aug 4vs STLW6.08864100
Jul 30@ CHWL7.010643300
Jul 25@ PHIW5.29776111
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs NYYL6.1104102322
Aug 11vs BOSW5.010475433
Aug 6@ CHCL7.0104102100
Jul 31vs STLW6.09673311
Jul 25@ BOSW9.0120121300
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Weathers
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.46.634.36.00.7(3)
at TOR5.65.623.05.51.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ TORW7.19546111
Jun 12@ TORL4.18225166
May 18vs TORW5.19077055
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY5.84.169.32.33.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs NYYL6.1104102322
May 19@ NYYL5.010094455
May 7@ NYYL6.28991211
home starts5.73.168.03.33.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs NYYL6.1104102322
Aug 11vs BOSW5.010475433
Jul 31vs STLW6.09673311
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • NYY bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • NYY — Ryan Weathers: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
CHW @ DET
1:40 PM · Comerica ParkRainy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Sean Burke R
xERA3.86 (avg)ERA1.56K%32.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%56.1 (poor)Barrel%12.2 (below avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs86BB%5.9
DET vs RHP · last 6
wRC+71 (poor)12+108K%21.7 (avg)HH%30.4 (below avg)Whiff%19.8
Drew Anderson R
xERA4.25 (avg)ERA1.00K%17.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)IP/gs4.5 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs62BB%8.6
CHW vs RHP · last 6
wRC+133 (elite)12+111K%22.3 (avg)HH%44.0 (above avg)Whiff%21.1
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 3.902d stress Stressed (7.7 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.00 (elite)ERA 2.552d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW-250-1.5 (+350)O12.5 (+106)DET+290+1.5 (-420)U12.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-118-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (+100)DET-105+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-140/+110)1.5 (-160/+124)DET3.5 (-130/+112)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USean Burke5.5 (-128 / +109)17.5 (-110 / -112)Drew Anderson4.5 (+105 / -125)13.5 (-123 / -107)
Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ DETW4.17225344
Aug 11vs CINL7.09483011
Aug 5@ BOSL4.19145222
Jul 30vs NYYW6.091103200
Jul 25vs HOUL6.0102104123
Drew Anderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs CHWL5.07454233
Aug 11vs CLEW4.07044211
Aug 5@ SEAL3.24203100
Aug 2@ ATHW1.1*2221000
Jul 29vs BALL1.1*3021122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Burke
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.43.894.35.02.0(3)
at DET4.18.782.05.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ DETW4.17225344
May 31vs DETW5.19363211
Jun 5vs DETW7.09657122
Drew Anderson
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.05.405.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs CHWL5.07454233
home starts4.54.004.54.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs CHWL5.07454233
Aug 11vs CLEW4.07044211
Weather · Rainy
78°F, Light Drizzle, Wind 9 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (62%)
Flags · 8
  • CHW — Sean Burke: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHW — Sean Burke: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • CHW bullpen stressed (7.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • DET bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • DET — Drew Anderson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-02, 2026-07-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • DET — Drew Anderson: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • DET — Drew Anderson: recent opponents low-K: HOU 18%, CLE 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • WEATHER: rain risk 62% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
SDP @ CLE
1:40 PM · Progressive FieldRainy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Casey Mize R
xERA4.27 (avg)ERA6.46K%14.9 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%13.5 (below avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs82BB%7.5
CLE vs RHP · last 6
wRC+88 (below avg)12+98K%14.3 (elite)HH%33.0 (below avg)Whiff%15.3
Tanner Bibee R
xERA2.91 (elite)ERA4.66K%22.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%4.0
SDP vs RHP · last 6
wRC+131 (elite)12+120K%17.2 (above avg)HH%46.7 (elite)Whiff%22.8
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.27 (elite)ERA 3.262d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 4.332d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-105-1.5 (+148)O8.5 (+102)CLE+100+1.5 (-178)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-110-0.5 (+125)O4.5 (-106)CLE-112+0.5 (-164)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP4.5 (+114/+114)1.5 (-154/+120)CLE3.5 (-128/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCasey Mize4.5 (+132 / -158)16.5 (-109 / -121)Tanner Bibee4.5 (+119 / -132)17.5 (-150 / +116)
Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs MILW6.08365222
Aug 5@ ARIL3.17719388
Jul 25vs KCRL6.08533011
Jul 19@ LAAL3.17455111
Jul 11vs PHIL5.29755234
Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ DETL6.19645256
Aug 5vs NYML5.298104034
Jul 31vs ARIL7.110033122
Jul 25@ TBRL6.010759233
Jul 20vs MINW6.09556122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.12.465.35.01.0(3)
at CLE7.00.004.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 21vs CLEL6.29544022
Sep 16vs CLEL5.18787133
Jul 5@ CLEW7.010244200
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP
home starts6.13.446.04.30.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs NYML5.298104034
Jul 31vs ARIL7.110033122
Jul 20vs MINW6.09556122
Weather · Rainy
82°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph SW
APF 101 — Neutral · Rain possible (23%)
Flags · 7
  • SDP — Casey Mize: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • SDP — Casey Mize: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • CLE bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SDP — Casey Mize: 2026-08-05: 8 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 23) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • CLE — Tanner Bibee: 2026-08-11: 5 ER in 6.1 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • CLE — Tanner Bibee: high-K outing 2026-08-05 (10 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
  • WEATHER: rain risk 23% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
SDP ML (-108)
Mize has handled this CLE lineup with a 2.46 ERA across his last 3 meetings including a scoreless 7-inning start at this park, and CLE sits at just 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a passive 14.3% strikeout rate. SDP brings an established 131 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 (120 over their last 12) and the far better bullpen (2.27 xERA vs 4.23 over the last 12). Priced as a coin flip, SDP is the stronger side on both run prevention and offense.
CLE Team Total u3.5 (+105)
Cleveland's bats sit at 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 98 over their last 12 — below average in both windows — and Mize has held this exact lineup to 0, 3 and 2 earned runs across his last 3 meetings with them (2.46 ERA, 6.1 IP/gs). Behind him is a San Diego bullpen at 2.27 xERA over its last 12, and Cleveland is 2-8 at home over its last 10. A +105 price on the under implies this cold lineup clears 3.5 more often than not, which overstates what it has done against this arm and this staff.
MIA @ CIN
1:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Eury Perez R
xERA2.03 (elite)ERA2.50K%30.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.2 (below avg)Barrel%4.5 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs97BB%8.3
CIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+53 (poor)12+96K%25.8 (below avg)HH%37.0 (avg)Whiff%26.0
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIA
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.28 (good)ERA 4.152d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 5.092d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-589-1.5 (+410)O3.5 (+162)CIN+550+1.5 (-620)U3.5 (-196)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-125-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-122)CIN+102+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (-104/-120)2.5 (+120/-154)CIN3.5 (-140/+112)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez6.5 (-111 / -110)17.5 (-130 / +103)TBD
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ CINW6.010052500
Aug 11vs PITW7.010073200
Aug 5@ ATLL5.09197244
Jul 30@ NYML6.09763212
Jul 25vs SDPL7.010427133
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.31.696.33.32.3(3)
at CIN5.50.826.52.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ CINW6.010052500
Apr 8vs CINW5.09566224
Jul 8@ CINW5.08882011
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 9 mph W
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
  • CIN — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • MIA bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • CIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • MIA — Eury Perez: 2026-08-05: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIA @ CIN u9.0 (+100)
Eury Perez carries a 2.03 xERA over his last 3 and has held Cincinnati to a 2.70 ERA across his last 2 meetings, facing a CIN lineup at just 54 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6. Miami is a disaster against left-handers at 18 wRC+ with a 45.5 K% over its last 6, and Nick Lodolo owns a 1.80 ERA at home and 2.41 across 2 starts vs Miami. Both bullpens are fresh and effective (CIN 1.92 xERA, MIA 3.59 over their last 12), so the number should sit lower than 9 given two frozen offenses and matching starter edges.
WSN @ NYM
1:40 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Jake Irvin R
xERA5.15 (below avg)ERA7.90K%13.8 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%16.3 (poor)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs90BB%10.3
NYM vs RHP · last 6
wRC+196 (elite)12+140K%20.6 (avg)HH%48.3 (elite)Whiff%26.0
Christian Scott R
xERA2.80 (elite)ERA4.80K%29.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%4.7 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs89BB%5.8
WSN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+102 (avg)12+103K%21.0 (avg)HH%34.0 (below avg)Whiff%21.7
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 5.16 (below avg)ERA 4.752d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 2.912d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+4600O7.5 (+1280)NYM-6000U7.5 (-2000)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+140+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-118)NYM-166-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (-113/-113)1.5 (-135/+105)NYM4.5 (-110/-115)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Irvin4.5 (+134 / -164)15.5 (+122 / +124)Christian Scott5.5 (-126 / +102)15.5 (-112 / -118)
Jake Irvin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ NYML6.09868344
Aug 11vs CHCL3.18844255
Aug 5@ PHIW5.18333222
Jul 30@ ATLL5.06113255
May 23@ ATLW5.08070100
Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs WSNW6.19075233
Aug 10@ ATLW4.08267144
Aug 5@ CLEW5.09676233
Jul 29vs ATLL6.09875111
Jul 22@ MILL3.28964333
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jake Irvin
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.04.775.76.72.0(3)
at NYM5.45.595.06.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ NYML6.09868344
May 18vs NYML4.07466123
Sep 21@ NYMW5.19356222
Jun 11@ NYML5.010045344
Christian Scott
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.05.356.04.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs WSNW6.19075233
May 18@ WSNW4.08154333
home starts5.72.116.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs WSNW6.19075233
Jul 29vs ATLL6.09875111
Jul 8vs KCRW5.09053100
Weather · Neutral Conditions
81°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 14 mph S
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 6
  • WSN — Jake Irvin: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.16 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • WSN bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • NYM bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • NYM — Christian Scott: 2026-08-10: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • NYM — Christian Scott: recent opponents high-K: ATL 28%, ATL 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
PHI @ MIN
2:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Andrew Painter R
xERA3.38 (good)ERA2.93K%26.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%2.7 (elite)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs83BB%11.5
MIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+101 (avg)12+90K%24.7 (below avg)HH%38.7 (avg)Whiff%27.3
Dean Kremer R
xERA3.23 (good)ERA5.63K%20.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs89BB%9.4
PHI vs RHP · last 6
wRC+108 (avg)12+113K%17.6 (above avg)HH%40.8 (above avg)Whiff%17.6
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 4.43
MIN
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 3.79
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI+290+1.5 (-210)O11.5 (+130)MIN-343-1.5 (+172)U11.5 (-161)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-110+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-146)MIN-114-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (-120/-105)2.5 (+105/-135)MIN4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Painter3.5 (-134 / +106)15.5 (+130 / -154)Dean Kremer4.5 (+117 / -136)15.5 (-101 / -125)
Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ MINL5.09426355
Aug 10@ STLW5.19362322
Aug 5vs WSNL4.06343111
Jul 31@ BALL6.08263322
Jun 17vs MIAL2.05636266
Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs PHIW5.18965244
Aug 10vs BALW7.08971111
Aug 5@ KCRL5.08823211
Jul 28@ DETL4.08148388
Jul 22@ BOSL6.08758166
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Painter
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.09.002.06.03.0(1)
at MIN5.09.002.06.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ MINL5.09426355
Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.56.496.06.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs PHIW5.18965244
Aug 5@ PHIL6.010368144
home starts5.74.745.74.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs PHIW5.18965244
Aug 10vs BALW7.08971111
Jul 8vs CHCL5.09246144
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 10 mph NW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
  • PHI — Andrew Painter: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • MIN — Dean Kremer: 2026-07-28: 8 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
STL @ CHC
3:15 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CHC
No data
Edward Cabrera R
xERA4.35 (avg)ERA5.52K%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs77BB%12.9
STL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+87 (below avg)12+102K%19.3 (above avg)HH%40.4 (above avg)Whiff%19.1
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.83 (below avg)ERA 3.292d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 3.482d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-150-1.5 (+120)O10.5 (-131)CHC+142+1.5 (-142)U10.5 (+110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+140+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-138)CHC-172-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (-120/-105)1.5 (-140/+110)CHC4.5 (-122/+100)2.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTBDEdward Cabrera4.5 (+123 / +122)12.5 (-135 / +102)
Edward Cabrera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs STLL3.16425233
Jun 23@ NYMW5.09943422
Jun 16vs COLL4.16733255
Jun 11@ COLW5.18355222
Jun 5vs SFGL3.28068188
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Edward Cabrera
IPERAKHBB
vs STL4.45.454.06.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs STLL3.16425233
Aug 19vs STLL4.199611146
Jul 28@ STLL6.09444312
home starts3.513.853.75.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs STLL3.16425233
Jun 16vs COLL4.16733255
Jun 5vs SFGL3.28068188
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph WNW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
  • STL — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • CHC bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: 54 days since last start (2026-06-23) — may not be fully stretched out
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: 2026-06-16: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
STL Moneyline (+142)
Hunter Dobbins brings a 2.92 xERA over his last 3 and works deep into games, while Edward Cabrera has a 4.35 xERA with a 50 HH% and 12.9 BB% over his last 3, has not started in 54 days, and owns a 12.23 ERA across his last 3 home starts. Cabrera's home collapse plus rust against a Dobbins edge that goes overlooked because St. Louis sits at 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 makes +142 too long for a game closer to a coin flip.
TEX @ ATH
4:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Cody Bradford L
xERA4.33 (avg)ERA2.38K%13.0 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%41.7 (below avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs52BB%6.5
ATH vs LHP · last 6
wRC+137 (elite)12+90K%22.2 (avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)Whiff%27.0
Jacob Lopez L
xERA1.96 (elite)ERA2.60K%31.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%22.7 (elite)Barrel%4.5 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs64BB%5.7
TEX vs LHP · last 6
wRC+55 (poor)12+100K%21.4 (avg)HH%46.8 (elite)Whiff%22.5
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 4.372d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.01 (below avg)ERA 6.752d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX+115+1.5 (-186)O9.5 (+105)ATH-128-1.5 (+152)U9.5 (-133)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-125-0.5 (-106)O5.5 (-102)ATH+112+0.5 (-122)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX5.5 (+110/-130)2.5 (-110/-120)ATH4.5 (+104/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCody Bradford4.5 (+124 / -145)17.5 (-111 / -118)Jacob Lopez4.5 (-130 / +104)16.5 (+106 / +100)
Cody Bradford · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ ATHL0.21101000
Aug 11@ LAAL7.07515133
Aug 5vs SFGW4.17055200
Jacob Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs TEXL1.01220000
Aug 10vs TBRL7.09355122
Aug 5@ CINL5.08794122
Jul 29vs BOSL5.19787212
Jul 24@ MINW5.09141400
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cody Bradford
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH0.20.000.01.00.0(1)
at ATH0.20.000.01.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ ATHL0.21101000
Jacob Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX3.03.003.51.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs TEXL1.01220000
Apr 16vs TEXL5.08553422
home starts4.42.065.04.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs TEXL1.01220000
Aug 10vs TBRL7.09355122
Jul 29vs BOSL5.19787212
Weather · Hitter Friendly
87°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 5 mph NW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.01 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • TEX — Cody Bradford: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
COL @ SFG
4:05 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Gabriel Hughes R
xERA3.81 (avg)ERA9.42K%18.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs60BB%9.1
SFG vs RHP · last 6
wRC+89 (below avg)12+93K%20.6 (avg)HH%40.8 (above avg)Whiff%24.6
Blade Tidwell R
xERA2.64 (elite)ERA3.55K%20.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs69BB%5.5
COL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+80 (below avg)12+94K%21.3 (avg)HH%37.4 (avg)Whiff%24.0
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.65 (below avg)ERA 4.192d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 4.20 (avg)ERA 4.172d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+230+1.5 (-104)O8.5 (-110)SFG-235-1.5 (-110)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+110+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-102)SFG-135-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (-120/-105)1.5 (-140/+110)SFG4.5 (+114/+120)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGabriel Hughes3.5 (-158 / +129)15.5 (+122 / -140)Blade Tidwell4.5 (-115 / -109)16.5 (-118 / -113)
Gabriel Hughes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ SFGL1.01612011
Aug 10@ ARIL4.08835377
Aug 4vs TBRL5.17774255
Jul 29@ SDPL5.07626133
Jul 22vs WSNL5.08855111
Blade Tidwell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs COLL1.01000100
Aug 10vs HOUL5.29664111
Aug 4@ TEXL5.010036122
Apr 28@ PHIL2.0*4724122
Apr 23vs LADL2.0*2521100
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gabriel Hughes
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG1.09.001.02.00.0(1)
at SFG1.09.001.02.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ SFGL1.01612011
Blade Tidwell
IPERAKHBB
vs COL1.00.000.00.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs COLL1.01000100
home starts3.11.453.02.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs COLL1.01000100
Aug 10vs HOUL5.29664111
Weather · Neutral Conditions
69°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 3
  • COL bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • COL — Gabriel Hughes: recent opponents low-K: SDP 17%, TBR 10%, ARI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • SFG — Blade Tidwell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-28, 2026-04-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
KCR @ LAA
4:07 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Noah Cameron L
xERA2.02 (elite)ERA2.08K%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.6 (elite)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs7.2 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs71BB%6.4
LAA vs LHP · last 6
wRC+88 (below avg)12+77K%18.2 (above avg)HH%37.9 (avg)Whiff%24.5
Ryan Johnson R
xERA6.98 (poor)ERA4.73K%15.0 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%42.5 (below avg)Barrel%22.5 (poor)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs59BB%16.7
KCR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+26 (poor)12+68K%26.2 (below avg)HH%31.7 (below avg)Whiff%20.5
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.76 (below avg)ERA 4.402d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.71 (elite)ERA 4.432d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+105-1.5 (+160)O7.5 (-112)LAA-110-1.5 (+168)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR-130-0.5 (+100)O4.5 (-140)LAA+108+0.5 (-130)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR4.5 (+100/-120)2.5 (+105/-135)LAA4.5 (+120/-148)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNoah Cameron5.5 (-154 / +123)17.5 (-130 / -102)Ryan Johnson3.5 (-158 / +131)15.5 (+128 / -157)
Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ LAAL0.2500000
Aug 10@ LADL5.210126244
Aug 5vs MINW8.010693111
Jul 30@ MINL8.09771200
Jul 24@ DETL7.0*9782300
Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs KCRL1.01500000
Aug 11vs TEXW4.18453211
Aug 6@ BALW4.27813511
Jul 31vs MILL4.18836355
Jul 25@ SFGL3.16948188
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA3.84.783.74.32.7(3)
at LAA0.20.000.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ LAAL0.2500000
Apr 24vs LAAW6.18868333
Sep 4vs LAAW5.09355533
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR1.00.000.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs KCRL1.01500000
home starts3.15.872.73.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs KCRL1.01500000
Aug 11vs TEXW4.18453211
Jul 31vs MILL4.18836355
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: Barrel% 22% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: BB% 17% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • KCR bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • LAA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-24 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: low-K outing 2026-08-10 (2 Ks vs avg 6.0) — stuff was flat that day
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: recent opponents high-K: MIN 32%, MIN 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: 2026-07-31: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIL @ LAD
4:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Logan Henderson R
xERA2.20 (elite)ERA2.50K%32.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs89BB%5.9
LAD vs RHP · last 6
wRC+95 (avg)12+68K%21.2 (avg)HH%32.0 (below avg)Whiff%23.3
Tarik Skubal L
xERA3.30 (good)ERA4.08K%25.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.3 (below avg)Barrel%10.9 (avg)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs62BB%7.1
MIL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+86 (below avg)12+101K%28.6 (poor)HH%46.7 (elite)Whiff%27.4
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.71 (elite)ERA 2.292d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 3.762d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+170+1.5 (-146)O7.5 (+104)LAD-172-1.5 (+120)U7.5 (-130)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL+160+0.5 (-104)O3.5 (-128)LAD-198-0.5 (-125)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL2.5 (-150/+120)1.5 (+124/-160)LAD3.5 (-145/+116)1.5 (-166/+130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Henderson5.5 (+114 / -138)16.5 (-112 / +104)Tarik Skubal7.5 (+110 / -137)18.5 (+157 / +170)
Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ SDPL6.19175133
Aug 4vs PITW6.08384122
Jul 28@ SFGW5.29372200
Jul 22vs NYMW5.08095022
Jul 17vs MIAW5.07343011
Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs MILL0.1501000
Aug 10vs KCRW5.09564233
Aug 4@ CHCL6.08564222
Jul 29vs BALL6.29264133
Jul 24vs KCRW7.191124211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Henderson
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD5.00.007.02.03.0(1)
at LAD
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 22vs LADW5.08572300
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL4.42.754.74.00.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs MILL0.1501000
Apr 23vs MILW6.09457044
Apr 14@ MILW7.09194000
home starts3.84.784.03.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs MILL0.1501000
Aug 10vs KCRW5.09564233
Jul 29vs BALL6.29264133
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
  • MIL bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • LAD — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: BAL 26%, CHC 29%, KCR 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Logan Henderson o5.5 Ks (+114)
Henderson has struck out 7, 8, and 7 over his last 3 starts on a 32.4% K rate, and his outs line of 16.5 gives him the innings to clear this. LAD sits at a moderate 21.2% strikeout rate vs RHP over their last 6, not contact-heavy enough to derail an arm missing bats at this level. At plus money the market is underpricing a pitcher who has topped this number in every recent outing.
SEA @ HOU
7:20 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.82 (avg)ERA2.65K%27.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%7.3 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs91BB%6.1
HOU vs RHP · last 6
wRC+69 (poor)12+100K%18.2 (above avg)HH%39.1 (avg)Whiff%23.2
Hunter Brown R
xERA3.31 (good)ERA4.32K%24.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%26.7 (elite)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%10.1
SEA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+140 (elite)12+102K%20.3 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)Whiff%24.1
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.38 (avg)ERA 8.592d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.87 (elite)ERA 2.832d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+114+1.5 (-201)O8.0 (-105)HOU-118-1.5 (+172)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+102+0.5 (-152)O3.5 (-128)HOU-128-0.5 (+116)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-120/-105)1.5 (-115/-115)HOU3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryan Woo5.5 (-115 / -104)17.5 (-172 / +135)Hunter Brown5.5 (-118 / +102)17.5 (-130 / -102)
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ NYYL5.09253100
Aug 5vs DETW7.09153100
Jul 30@ LADL5.09185255
Jul 25@ TEXL5.09559255
Jul 18vs SFGW6.09876223
Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ SFGL5.08945333
Aug 5vs TORL6.09383233
Jul 31vs TEXW5.210456222
Jul 25@ CHWW7.09072000
Jul 19vs BALL4.29243644
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.73.187.33.71.3(3)
at HOU5.72.127.05.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 12@ HOUW6.010494222
Sep 19@ HOUW5.06771100
Jul 20vs HOUL6.09166145
May 24@ HOUL6.093510022
Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.32.816.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19vs SEAL6.09995222
Jul 20@ SEAW4.08976233
Apr 9@ SEAL6.09832000
home starts5.15.265.74.03.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs TORL6.09383233
Jul 31vs TEXW5.210456222
Jul 19vs BALL4.29243644
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 4
  • SEA — Bryan Woo: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • SEA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • HOU bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-07-30: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Bryan Woo o5.5 Ks (-122)
Woo has struck out 6, 7, and 9 in his three most recent meetings with Houston (7.3 K/gs vs them) and carries a 27.3 K% over his last 3 starts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him the full six innings to get there, and he owns a 2.12 ERA at this park across 3 starts. The market is pricing Houston's low 18.8 team K% over its last 6 over Woo's established, repeated ability to miss bats against this specific roster.