MLB Game Overviews

Jobe has struck out 7, 8, and 9 batters in his last three starts, clearing 5.5 easily every time, backed by a 35.3% K% and 30.4% Whiff% over that span that both rank among the best on the board. He has also gone at least 15 outs in each of those starts (peaking at 19), so length is not a limiting factor against the 15.5 outs line. Despite this level of consistency and dominance, the market prices the under as the favorite at 56%, a full mismatch with three straight starts that comfortably cleared this number.

Williams has struck out 11, 7, and 9 batters over his last three starts, clearing 6.5 comfortably in all three, powered by a 38.0% K% and a 41.7% Whiff% that are both elite over that span. His outs are not a concern either — he averaged 18 outs per start over that stretch, well above the 17.5 outs line, so the length is there to support the rate. Kansas City's offense is only average vs RHP (21.5% K rate over its last 6), yet the market still prices the over at just 53%, well below what his actual per-start totals have supported all season.

Lodolo has gone 7.0 and 7.0 innings in his last two starts (21 outs each), and Toronto's lineup vs LHP is both low-strikeout (11.1% over its last 6) and low-walk (5.6%), a contact-heavy, efficient-at-bat profile that lets a starter work deep into games. Cincinnati's own bullpen is carrying elevated 2-day stress (8.3 IP), giving the club extra incentive to stretch him. The market's 49% no-vig price on the over undervalues his demonstrated recent depth against a lineup built to keep his pitch count down.

Burke has struck out 6, 2, and 5 batters over his last three starts, never clearing 6.5 outright, and Colorado's offense carries only a middling 24.7% K rate vs RHP over its last 6 games. His last outing that produced a big strikeout total came in a shortened, disaster start (1.1 IP, 7 ER) that skews the average, not a sign of a repeatable rate against a lineup with an average strikeout profile. The market's 46% no-vig price on the under is too shy given his actual per-outing totals.

Casey Mize has been terrible over his last 3 starts, a 6.82 ERA with a 12.5% walk rate and a 40.4% hard-hit rate, and he has never solved this Arizona club, allowing an 8.74 ERA with two of his three career meetings this season including a start where he lasted 3.0 IP and allowed 5 runs. Arizona's offense is average vs RHP over its last 6 (101 wRC+) but climbs to 112 over the last 12, and San Diego's bullpen behind Mize is carrying elevated stress (10.0 IP over 2 days). The market prices Arizona to clear 3.5 runs only 46% of the time despite a starter this compromised and a bullpen already taxed behind him.

Boston's lineup strikes out at a 28.8% clip vs RHP over its last 6 games, and Holmes' own Whiff% (24.0% over his last 3 starts) runs well above his K% (16.4%), signaling his strikeout rate is due to climb. He has posted 2, 6, and 4 Ks in his last three outings, and the market's 44% no-vig price on the over undervalues a pitcher facing one of the more strikeout-prone lineups on the board at a plus-money numbe.