AI Picks · 2 Bets · Oct 12
2u Picks
1u Picks
Foster Griffin o3.5 Strikeouts (-112)
CLE @ TBR · 8:00 PM ET
Griffin struck out 4, 5 and 7 batters in his last three outings, clearing 3.5 in every single one of them even in the start where he was yanked after 2.1 innings. His 32.8% strikeout rate and 27.6% whiff rate over that stretch are both well above average, and his own bat-missing ability travels regardless of how long he's left in the game. The market has this at a pick'em price despite a perfect recent track record against the number.
Found at 8:53 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
LAD -1.5 (+135)
LAD @ MIL · 5:10 PM ET
Yamamoto has a 1.59 xERA over his last three starts with excellent 18.4% hard-hit and 32.1% whiff rates, and he has gone 7, 7 and 6 innings in that stretch; his two meetings with Milwaukee this season (both within the last two months) were 1 ER over 7 IP and 1 ER over 6 IP with 9 strikeouts. Henderson, by contrast, has gone exactly 5 innings in each of his last three starts, and Milwaukee's bullpen behind him is carrying an elevated 4.7 innings of stress over the past two days, so LAD gets extended access to a tired pen most nights. That combination supports a multi-run LAD win more than the plus-money price on the run line reflects.
Found at 8:53 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
LAD @ 
MIL✓5:00 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
LAD @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA1.59 (elite)ERA1.35 (elite)K%27.6 (good)Whiff%32.1 (elite)BB%5.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%18.4 (elite)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs90
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%21.3 (avg)Whiff%19.5 (above)BB%8.5 (avg)HH%43.9 (above)
L12
wRC+96 (avg)K%27.9 (below)Whiff%23.3 (avg)BB%10.3 (above)HH%39.1 (avg)
Logan Henderson R
xERA3.55 (good)ERA3.00 (good)K%23.1 (good)Whiff%24.4 (good)BB%10.8 (below)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs90
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+106 (avg)K%16.6 (above)Whiff%20.6 (above)BB%13.7 (elite)HH%41.2 (above)
L12
wRC+109 (avg)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%22.3 (avg)BB%10.6 (above)HH%41.3 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 1.47 (elite)ERA 1.33 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 1.69 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-195-1.5 (+108)O7.5 (-122)MIL+170+1.5 (-130)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-132-0.5 (+114)O3.5 (-118)MIL+114+0.5 (-148)U3.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD3.5 (-106/-120)1.5 (-135/+105)MIL2.5 (-135/+112)1.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UY. Yamamoto6.5 (-125 / +101)17.5 (-148 / +120)Logan Henderson5.5 (-107 / -111)15.5 (+113 / -146)
Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26vs 
L6.08845124
L6.08845124Sep 15 '26@ 
W7.09171200
W7.09171200Sep 9 '26vs W7.090103111
W7.090103111Sep 2 '26vs 
L7.09385244
L7.09385244Aug 27 '26@ 
L6.110584111
L6.110584111Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26@ 
W5.08734311
W5.08734311Sep 16 '26@ 
W5.08786133
W5.08786133Sep 9 '26vs 
W5.09562101
W5.09562101Sep 3 '26@ L7.010273022
L7.010273022Aug 28 '26vs 
W7.09171011
W7.09171011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL4.43.41good4.05.01.7(3)
at MIL3.65.00below1.55.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14 '26vs W6.09794211
W6.09794211May 24 '26@ W7.09237111
W7.09237111Jul 7 '25@ L0.24104235
L0.24104235Logan Henderson
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.00.75elite6.52.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16 '26@ W7.09363111
W7.09363111May 22 '26vs W5.08572300
W5.08572300home starts6.01.00elite5.72.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 9 '26vs W5.09562101
W5.09562101Aug 28 '26vs W7.09171011
W7.09171011Aug 22 '26vs W6.010045211
W6.010045211Trends · LAD
- LAD are 3-5 vs MIL this season (8 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-3 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 5.0 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.6 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 0-10 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 0-10 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 2-3 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 0-2 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 5-3 vs LAD this season (8 games).
- MIL are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 5-0 in Logan Henderson's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.2 runs/game in Logan Henderson's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-3 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in Logan Henderson's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
85°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph SW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
LAD -1.5 (+135)
Yamamoto has a 1.59 xERA over his last three starts with excellent 18.4% hard-hit and 32.1% whiff rates, and he has gone 7, 7 and 6 innings in that stretch; his two meetings with Milwaukee this season (both within the last two months) were 1 ER over 7 IP and 1 ER over 6 IP with 9 strikeouts. Henderson, by contrast, has gone exactly 5 innings in each of his last three starts, and Milwaukee's bullpen behind him is carrying an elevated 4.7 innings of stress over the past two days, so LAD gets extended access to a tired pen most nights. That combination supports a multi-run LAD win more than the plus-money price on the run line reflects.
CLE @ 
TBR✓8:00 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
CLE @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Foster Griffin L
xERA3.08 (good)ERA2.84 (elite)K%32.8 (elite)Whiff%27.6 (good)BB%3.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%2.9 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs8.5PC/gs76
TBR vs LHP
L6
wRC+87 (below)K%24.1 (below)Whiff%20.3 (above)BB%9.6 (above)HH%43.6 (above)
L12
wRC+66 (poor)K%21.6 (avg)Whiff%21.0 (avg)BB%6.8 (below)HH%38.2 (avg)
Drew Rasmussen R
xERA2.47 (elite)ERA0.46 (elite)K%34.3 (elite)Whiff%36.6 (elite)BB%10.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%28.2 (elite)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs94
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+95 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)Whiff%21.9 (avg)BB%11.7 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%18.1 (above)Whiff%19.2 (above)BB%13.1 (elite)HH%37.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 2.86 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 2.62 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+144+1.5 (-150)O7.0 (+101)TBR-169-1.5 (+130)U6.5 (+105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+144+0.5 (-114)O3.5 (-113)TBR-175-0.5 (-114)U3.5 (-115)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE2.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (+120/-154)TBR3.5 (-111/-105)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFoster Griffin3.5 (-107 / -111)13.5 (+104 / -120)Drew Rasmussen5.5 (-114 / -111)17.5 (-125 / -102)
Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26@ 
L6.083710011
L6.083710011Sep 15 '26vs 
W4.08355222
W4.08355222Sep 9 '26@ 
L2.16247288
L2.16247288Sep 4 '26vs 
W6.09238233
W6.09238233Aug 29 '26vs 
L5.08244122
L5.08244122Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '26@ 
W6.2114111311
W6.2114111311Sep 17 '26vs 
W5.07634200
W5.07634200Sep 11 '26vs 
W7.09248011
W7.09248011Sep 5 '26@ W7.09773011
W7.09773011Aug 30 '26vs W6.09764222
W6.09764222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Drew Rasmussen
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.71.06elite5.73.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26 '26vs W7.08791100
W7.08791100Apr 29 '26@ L5.09166123
L5.09166123Sep 7 '25vs L5.08223300
L5.08223300home starts6.01.50elite4.35.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 17 '26vs W5.07634200
W5.07634200Sep 11 '26vs W7.09248011
W7.09248011Aug 30 '26vs W6.09764222
W6.09764222Trends · CLE
- CLE are 1-5 vs TBR this season (6 games).
- CLE are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-3 in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-2 in Foster Griffin's last 4 away starts.
- CLE average 3.8 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 4.5 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Foster Griffin's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Foster Griffin's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 5-1 vs CLE this season (6 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 5-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.2 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 8
- TBR offense: K% 24.1 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 20.3 supports
- CLE — Foster Griffin: 19 days since last start (2026-09-23) news ↗
- CLE — Foster Griffin: 2026-09-09: 8 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 34); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.00 ERA equivalent
- CLE — Foster Griffin: recent opponents high-K: BAL 29%, CHW 35%, BOS 26%
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: 20 days since last start (2026-09-22) news ↗
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: last start: 114 pitches over 6.2 IP news ↗
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: high-K outing 2026-09-22 (11 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: recent opponents high-K: HOU 31%, NYY 27%
Foster Griffin o3.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Griffin struck out 4, 5 and 7 batters in his last three outings, clearing 3.5 in every single one of them even in the start where he was yanked after 2.1 innings. His 32.8% strikeout rate and 27.6% whiff rate over that stretch are both well above average, and his own bat-missing ability travels regardless of how long he's left in the game. The market has this at a pick'em price despite a perfect recent track record against the number.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.