MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 7 Bets · Aug 9

Cam Schlittler o6.5 Ks (-115)

Schlittler carries a 39.4% K rate over his last 3 starts with strikeout totals of 12, 8, and 6, and even his worst outing (3 IP, 5 walks) still produced 6. ATL sits at a 21.4% K rate vs RHP over their last 12, enough contact softness for a swing-and-miss arm this dominant to clear 6.5 in a normal 5-inning outing. The line is priced as if his short-leash last start caps him, but the strikeout floor is high enough that 7+ is the expectation.

Found at 4:12 AM ET

NYM @ PIT u8.0 (-104)

PIT is dreadful at 58 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 12 facing Manaea, and NYM checks in at just 93 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 12 against Jones, who owns a 3.15 xERA in that window. Both bullpens are elite (NYM 2.06, PIT 2.10 ERA over their last 12), so late innings stay quiet. Two weak offenses and two strong relief corps make 8 a soft number.

Found at 4:12 AM ET

Jesus Luzardo o6.5 Ks (+100)

Luzardo carries a 25.3% K rate over his last 3 with strikeout totals of 9, 5, and 7 while averaging 7.1 IP per start, so the workload alone gets him near this number. TOR sits at 54 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 12, an overmatched lineup that lets him work deep and pile up whiffs. Even money on a pitcher averaging 7 strikeouts against one of the weakest offenses on the board is value.

Found at 4:12 AM ET

COL @ STL o9.5 (+104)

Lorenzen brings a 6.81 xERA with 46.7% hard contact over his last 3 and averages just 3.6 IP, while McGreevy counters with a 7.11 xERA, 61.4% hard contact and a 15.9% barrel rate over his last 3. Both offenses are league-average (COL 99, STL 96 wRC+ over their last 12) and will face stressed bullpens by the fourth inning given how short these starters go. A total of 9.5 undersells a matchup of two of the worst-throwing starters on the slate.

Found at 4:12 AM ET

BAL @ TEX u8.0 (-104)

Rocker owns a 2.94 xERA over his last 3 and faces a BAL lineup at just 70 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 12, while TEX comes in at only 70 wRC+ vs LHP over the same span against Povich. Two of the coldest offenses on the board meet a strong strikeout arm, and BAL's bullpen (3.14 xERA over its last 12) keeps the back end quiet. The number is set as if these lineups are league-average when both are near the bottom.

Found at 4:12 AM ET

Kumar Rocker o5.5 Ks (+116)

Rocker has struck out 6, 7, and 5 over his last 3 starts on a 24.7% K rate, and BAL swings through pitches at a 23.6% clip vs RHP over its last 12. He works 6 IP per start with a 2.94 xERA, so the volume and matchup both support 6+. Getting plus money on a total he clears in two of his last three is value.

Found at 4:12 AM ET

Randy Vasquez u2.5 Ks (-146)

Vasquez has a 4.2% K rate over his last 3 starts with strikeout totals of 0 and 1 in his two most recent outings — he simply does not miss bats. HOU makes contact at a 21.2% K rate vs RHP over its last 12, so there is no swing-happy element to lift him. Whether he goes deep or gets pulled early, reaching 3 strikeouts is out of character for a pitcher this reliant on balls in play.

Found at 4:12 AM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

CIN @

WSN

12:15 PM · Nationals ParkHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Brady Singer R

xERA3.47 (good)ERA3.18K%20.0 (avg)

More Stats

HH%36.5 (avg)Barrel%1.9 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs101BB%10.7

WSN vs RHP

wRC+108 (avg)K%22.7 (avg)HH%41.3 (above avg)Whiff%24.9

Brad Lord

xERA?ERA?K%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?

CIN

No data

Bullpens · Last 12

CIN

xERA 3.65 (good)ERA 2.452d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)

WSN

xERA 4.17 (avg)ERA 3.322d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCIN-108-1.5 (+150)O9.5 (+100)WSN+101+1.5 (-172)U9.0 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCIN-116-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-140)WSN-108+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (+108)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UCIN4.5 (-115/-110)WSN4.5 (+102/-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UBrady Singer4.5 (+104 / -109)17.5 (-125 / +102)Brad Lord——

Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

W6.010165333

Jul 29vs

L4.110037444

Jul 22@

W6.210166133

Jul 17@

W7.09664022

Jul 9vs

L7.18954111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Brady Singer

IPERAKHBB

vs WSN2.716.981.55.51.5(2)

at WSN2.130.001.05.02.0(1)

Trends · CIN

CIN are 1-4 vs WSN this season (5 games).
CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
CIN are 3-2 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
CIN are 2-3 in Brady Singer's last 5 away starts.
CIN average 3.6 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
CIN average 4.6 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
CIN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CIN are 1-4 to the over in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
CIN are 1-1 to the over in Brady Singer's last 2 away starts.

Trends · WSN

WSN are 4-1 vs CIN this season (5 games).
WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.

Over / Under

WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.

Weather · Hot

91°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 6 mph NW

APF 105 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 4

WSN — Brad Lord: first start of the season — no stats available yet
CIN bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CIN — Brady Singer: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
CIN — Brady Singer: 2026-07-29: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Washington's starter has no track record this season and Cincinnati's lineup data against his hand is unavailable, leaving too little to price anything confidently.

ATH @

BOS

1:35 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

J.T. Ginn R

xERA3.13 (good)ERA5.94K%27.1 (good)

More Stats

HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%11.4

BOS vs RHP

wRC+150 (elite)K%17.5 (above avg)HH%33.9 (below avg)Whiff%22.7

Brayan Bello R

xERA2.57 (elite)ERA0.00K%17.6 (avg)

More Stats

HH%23.1 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs9.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs38BB%5.9

ATH vs RHP

wRC+81 (below avg)K%18.3 (above avg)HH%37.1 (avg)Whiff%20.6

Bullpens · Last 12

ATH

xERA 4.85 (below avg)ERA 7.302d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

BOS

xERA 1.86 (elite)ERA 1.312d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalATH+218+1.5 (+113)O10.5 (+100)BOS-235-1.5 (-125)U10.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalATH+168+0.5 (+114)O5.5 (+106)BOS-215-0.5 (-148)U5.5 (-138)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UATH3.5 (-125/+100)BOS5.5 (-130/+105)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UJ.T. Ginn—16.5 (-115 / -125)Brayan Bello——

J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4@

L6.09155233

Jul 18vs

W6.18271300

Jul 12@

L4.18676388

Jul 7@

L4.06142222

Jul 1vs

W6.010443511

Brayan Bello · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6vs

W2.0*2813101

Aug 4vs

W3.0*2820000

Jul 31@

W4.0*5833100

Jul 22vs

L5.1*8554100

Jul 12@

W4.1*5552011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

J.T. Ginn

IPERAKHBB

vs BOS6.03.003.05.01.0(1)

at BOS6.03.003.05.01.0(1)

Brayan Bello

IPERAKHBB

vs ATH4.06.753.05.02.0(1)

home starts—

Trends · ATH

ATH are 2-4 vs BOS this season (6 games).
ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
ATH are 2-3 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
ATH are 1-4 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 away starts.
ATH average 5.8 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
ATH average 4.4 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
ATH are 2-3 to the over in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
ATH are 1-2 to the over in J.T. Ginn's last 3 away starts.

Trends · BOS

BOS are 4-2 vs ATH this season (6 games).
BOS are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
BOS are 0-5 in Brayan Bello's last 5 starts.
BOS are 0-3 in Brayan Bello's last 3 home starts.
BOS average 1.6 runs/game in Brayan Bello's last 5 starts.
BOS average 3.0 runs/game in Brayan Bello's last 3 home starts.

Over / Under

BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

90°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 12 mph WSW

APF 106 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

ATH bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
ATH — J.T. Ginn: 2026-07-12: 8 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATH — J.T. Ginn: recent opponents high-K: CHW 27%, CIN 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
BOS — Brayan Bello: 66 days since last start (2026-06-04) — may not be fully stretched out
BOS — Brayan Bello: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-06, 2026-08-04 — may affect pitch count or availability
BOS — Brayan Bello: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today

AI Analysis

Boston's elite bat vs right-handers is the real edge, but Bello's 66-day layoff and short-leash risk inject too much variance, and the moneyline price is already steep.

ATL @

NYY✓

1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Grant Holmes R

xERA4.89 (below avg)ERA3.45K%21.2 (avg)

More Stats

HH%40.4 (below avg)Barrel%14.9 (below avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs77BB%7.6

NYY vs RHP

wRC+66 (poor)K%29.3 (poor)HH%44.7 (above avg)Whiff%27.7

Cam Schlittler R

xERA2.44 (elite)ERA2.70K%39.4 (elite)

More Stats

HH%43.8 (below avg)Barrel%9.4 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs92BB%9.1

ATL vs RHP

wRC+104 (avg)K%21.4 (avg)HH%41.2 (above avg)Whiff%21.5

Bullpens · Last 12

ATL

xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 5.182d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)

NYY

xERA 3.91 (avg)ERA 4.942d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalATL+132+1.5 (-167)O8.5 (-102)NYY-140-1.5 (+146)U8.5 (-115)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalATL+136+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-113)NYY-172-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (-115)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL3.5 (-122/-104)1.5 (-125/-105)NYY4.5 (+108/-125)2.5 (-105/-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UGrant Holmes4.5 (-150 / +121)14.5 (-162 / +122)Cam Schlittler6.5 (-115 / -102)17.5 (-150 / +142)

Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

W6.07255100

Jul 30vs

W4.26945233

Jul 24@

W5.09156233

Jul 19vs

W5.07427233

Jul 8@

W5.09053100

Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 3vs

L3.08364544

Jul 29@

L6.19382111

Jul 24@

W7.199123000

Jul 19vs

L4.19886033

Jul 11@

W6.29964422

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Grant Holmes

IPERAKHBB

vs NYY6.04.502.07.02.0(1)

at NYY—

Cam Schlittler

IPERAKHBB

vs ATL—

home starts3.710.546.35.72.0(3)

Trends · ATL

ATL are 0-2 vs NYY this season (2 games).
ATL are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
ATL are 5-0 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
ATL are 3-2 in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.
ATL average 5.4 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
ATL average 4.6 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

ATL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
ATL are 2-3 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
ATL are 1-1 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 2 away starts.

Trends · NYY

NYY are 2-0 vs ATL this season (2 games).
NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 1-4 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
NYY are 1-4 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.
NYY average 3.0 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
NYY average 3.4 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 2-3 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
NYY are 2-0 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

90°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 10 mph WNW

APF 105 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 3

ATL — Grant Holmes: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
ATL — Grant Holmes: last start: 72 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
NYY — Cam Schlittler: 2026-08-03: 4 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

Cam Schlittler o6.5 Ks (-115)

NYM @

PIT✓

1:35 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Sean Manaea L

xERA5.51 (poor)ERA2.50K%18.4 (avg)

More Stats

HH%41.2 (below avg)Barrel%13.7 (below avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs91BB%11.8

PIT vs LHP

wRC+58 (poor)K%23.5 (avg)HH%25.6 (poor)Whiff%25.7

Jared Jones R

xERA3.15 (good)ERA3.94K%21.2 (avg)

More Stats

HH%41.7 (below avg)Barrel%10.4 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs81BB%6.1

NYM vs RHP

wRC+93 (below avg)K%24.5 (below avg)HH%41.1 (above avg)Whiff%22.7

Bullpens · Last 12

NYM

xERA 2.44 (elite)ERA 2.062d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

PIT

xERA 2.46 (elite)ERA 2.102d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalNYM+128+1.5 (-178)O8.0 (-115)PIT-136-1.5 (+160)U8.0 (-104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalNYM+120+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-104)PIT-150-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-125)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (-122/-104)1.5 (-130/+100)PIT4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/USean Manaea5.5 (+126 / -156)17.5 (-108 / -120)Jared Jones5.5 (+124 / -141)15.5 (+131 / -175)

Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4@

W6.010077522

Jul 29vs

W6.08945222

Jul 24vs

L6.08436211

Jul 18@

L4.29977244

Jul 9vs

W7.09766123

Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4@

L4.08348133

Jul 29vs

L6.07754233

Jul 24vs

L6.08352111

Jul 18@

W5.07493111

Jul 8vs

L6.07780000

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Jared Jones

IPERAKHBB

vs NYM—

home starts6.02.006.02.01.0(3)

Trends · NYM

NYM are 3-2 vs PIT this season (5 games).
NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
NYM are 3-2 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
NYM are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 away starts.
NYM average 3.8 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
NYM average 3.4 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

NYM are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYM are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
NYM are 1-4 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
NYM are 1-2 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 3 away starts.

Trends · PIT

PIT are 2-3 vs NYM this season (5 games).
PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
PIT are 1-4 in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
PIT are 1-4 in Jared Jones's last 5 home starts.
PIT average 2.2 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
PIT average 3.6 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
PIT are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
PIT are 1-4 to the over in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
PIT are 1-2 to the over in Jared Jones's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

82°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph WSW

APF 102 — Neutral

Flags · 4

NYM — Sean Manaea: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
NYM bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
PIT bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
NYM — Sean Manaea: recent opponents low-K: LAD 18%, ATL 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher

NYM @ PIT u8.0 (-104)

TOR @

PHI✓

1:35 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Shane Bieber R

xERA5.10 (below avg)ERA4.05K%14.8 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%31.8 (good)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs72BB%13.1

PHI vs RHP

wRC+113 (avg)K%17.8 (above avg)HH%43.7 (above avg)Whiff%19.0

Jesus Luzardo L

xERA3.12 (good)ERA2.95K%25.3 (good)

More Stats

HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs7.1 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs101BB%7.2

TOR vs LHP

wRC+54 (poor)K%19.7 (above avg)HH%26.3 (poor)Whiff%20.0

Bullpens · Last 12

TOR

xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 3.562d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)

PHI

xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 4.382d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTOR+179+1.5 (-126)O8.5 (-102)PHI-190-1.5 (+110)U8.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTOR+186+1.5 (-152)O4.5 (-115)PHI-230-1.5 (+116)U4.5 (-113)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (+108/-125)1.5 (+105/-135)PHI4.5 (-113/-105)2.5 (-110/-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UShane Bieber3.5 (-138 / +112)15.5 (+111 / -148)Jesus Luzardo6.5 (+100 / -125)18.5 (+145 / -180)

Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 3@

W5.28769211

Jul 28@

L0.24201644

Jul 23vs

W7.08633011

Jul 18vs

W6.08063200

Jul 10@

W4.29746322

Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

W8.09874200

Jul 29@

L6.110056366

Jul 24vs

L7.010594111

Jul 18vs

W5.09072211

Jul 9@

W7.096112200

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Jesus Luzardo

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR3.711.105.06.53.0(2)

home starts6.70.907.73.31.7(3)

Trends · TOR

TOR are 3-2 vs PHI this season (5 games).
TOR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
TOR are 4-1 in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
TOR are 2-2 in Shane Bieber's last 4 away starts.
TOR average 3.6 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
TOR average 3.5 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 4 away starts.

Over / Under

TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
TOR are 1-4 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
TOR are 1-2 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 3 away starts.

Trends · PHI

PHI are 2-3 vs TOR this season (5 games).
PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
PHI are 3-2 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
PHI are 4-1 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.
PHI average 3.6 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
PHI average 5.4 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

PHI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
PHI are 1-4 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
PHI are 0-3 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hot

91°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 8 mph W

APF 106 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 4

TOR — Shane Bieber: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
TOR bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TOR — Shane Bieber: 2026-07-28: 4 ER in 0.2 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
PHI — Jesus Luzardo: 2026-07-29: 6 ER in 6.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

Jesus Luzardo o6.5 Ks (+100)

LAA @

MIA

1:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

G. Rodriguez R

xERA5.91 (poor)ERA5.06K%22.7 (avg)

More Stats

HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%15.6 (poor)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs92BB%7.6

MIA vs RHP

wRC+101 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%37.0 (avg)Whiff%24.1

Ryan Gusto R

xERA3.67 (good)ERA5.02K%20.0 (avg)

More Stats

HH%53.3 (poor)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs73BB%5.0

LAA vs RHP

wRC+70 (poor)K%25.4 (below avg)HH%37.6 (avg)Whiff%26.6

Bullpens · Last 12

LAA

xERA 3.68 (good)ERA 3.512d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

MIA

xERA 3.85 (avg)ERA 4.042d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalLAA+132+1.5 (-163)O8.5 (-106)MIA-138-1.5 (+146)U8.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalLAA+124+0.5 (-115)O4.5 (-125)MIA-154-0.5 (-113)U4.5 (-104)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (-125/-102)1.5 (-145/+114)MIA4.5 (+108/-120)2.5 (-105/-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UG. Rodriguez5.5 (+115 / -140)17.5 (+100 / -115)Ryan Gusto4.5 (-149 / +117)14.5 (-160 / +121)

G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4@

L7.09863122

Jul 29vs

L5.09865222

Jul 24@

L4.08036255

Jul 18vs

L4.08737166

Jul 10@

W5.17906133

Ryan Gusto · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4@

L6.08355011

Jul 29vs

W5.07939266

Jul 24vs

L3.15742111

Jul 21@

L2.0*2420000

Jul 18@

L2.1*3823012

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ryan Gusto

IPERAKHBB

vs LAA5.07.206.55.00.5(2)

home starts4.07.783.55.51.5(2)

Trends · LAA

LAA are 1-1 vs MIA this season (2 games).
LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
LAA are 1-4 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
LAA are 2-2 in G. Rodriguez's last 4 away starts.
LAA average 3.0 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
LAA average 4.5 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 4 away starts.

Over / Under

LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
LAA are 2-3 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
LAA are 1-2 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 3 away starts.

Trends · MIA

MIA are 1-1 vs LAA this season (2 games).
MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
MIA are 2-3 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
MIA are 3-2 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 home starts.
MIA average 4.2 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
MIA average 4.0 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
MIA are 2-2 to the over in Ryan Gusto's last 4 starts.

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 8

LAA — G. Rodriguez: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
MIA — Ryan Gusto: HH% 53% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
LAA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
LAA — G. Rodriguez: 2026-07-24: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIA — Ryan Gusto: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-21, 2026-07-18 — may affect pitch count or availability
MIA — Ryan Gusto: 2026-07-29: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIA — Ryan Gusto: recent opponents low-K: SDP 19%, PHI 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher

AI Analysis

Miami should be favored against a home-run-prone LAA starter, but the strikeout prop that fits the matchup is priced too rich and the side offers no edge.

CHC @

KCR

2:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot, Windy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Matthew Boyd L

xERA3.79 (avg)ERA2.18K%14.1 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%24.2 (elite)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs93BB%7.1

KCR vs LHP

wRC+103 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)Whiff%24.2

Randy Dobnak R

xERA3.84 (avg)ERA0.53K%12.3 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%5.8 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs89BB%7.7

CHC vs RHP

wRC+89 (below avg)K%20.2 (avg)HH%41.8 (above avg)Whiff%19.2

Bullpens · Last 12

CHC

xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 2.932d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

KCR

xERA 4.76 (below avg)ERA 4.972d stress Stressed (7.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCHC-150-1.5 (+101)O10.0 (-112)KCR+142+1.5 (-115)U10.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCHC-160-0.5 (-118)O5.5 (-108)KCR+130+0.5 (-110)U5.5 (-120)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC5.5 (-108/-110)2.5 (-130/+100)KCR4.5 (+108/-130)2.5 (+114/-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMatthew Boyd4.5 (-140 / +114)17.5 (-152 / +125)Randy Dobnak2.5 (-149 / +117)15.5 (+119 / -159)

Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 3vs

W6.29239145

Jul 29@

L7.08954200

Jul 24@

W7.09747311

Jul 18vs

W6.09143111

Jul 12@

W6.19236144

Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

W5.09013311

Jul 29@

W7.010144100

Jul 23@

L5.07634100

Jul 18vs

W4.19634411

Jul 8@

L5.2*9523300

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Matthew Boyd

IPERAKHBB

vs KCR7.00.006.04.01.0(1)

at KCR—

Randy Dobnak

IPERAKHBB

vs CHC—

home starts4.51.982.03.53.5(2)

Trends · CHC

CHC are 1-1 vs KCR this season (2 games).
CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
CHC are 4-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
CHC are 4-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 away starts.
CHC average 5.8 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
CHC average 4.4 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CHC are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CHC are 2-3 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
CHC are 1-2 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 3 away starts.

Trends · KCR

KCR are 1-1 vs CHC this season (2 games).
KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
KCR are 3-1 in Randy Dobnak's last 4 starts.
KCR are 2-0 in Randy Dobnak's last 2 home starts.
KCR average 5.2 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 4 starts.
KCR average 7.0 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 2 home starts.

Over / Under

KCR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
KCR are 2-3 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
KCR are 1-1 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Hot, Windy

95°F, Clear, Wind 17 mph SSW

APF 106 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

KCR — Randy Dobnak: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
CHC bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
KCR bullpen stressed (7.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
KCR — Randy Dobnak: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-08, 2026-07-02 — may affect pitch count or availability
KCR — Randy Dobnak: recent opponents low-K: DET 19%, MIN 16%, MIN 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
WEATHER: wind Blowing Out 17 mph from the SSW — factor into total and HR expectations

AI Analysis

A 17 mph wind blowing out and two low-strikeout contact pitchers make the run environment genuinely unpredictable at an already-inflated total of 10.

CLE @

CHW

2:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Joey Cantillo L

xERA3.92 (avg)ERA4.97K%27.9 (good)

More Stats

HH%55.0 (poor)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs81BB%6.6

CHW vs LHP

wRC+103 (avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%40.8 (above avg)Whiff%22.9

Davis Martin R

xERA5.36 (poor)ERA9.56K%13.7 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%44.6 (below avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs95BB%5.5

CLE vs RHP

wRC+77 (poor)K%20.7 (avg)HH%29.9 (poor)Whiff%22.4

Bullpens · Last 12

CLE

xERA 3.84 (avg)ERA 4.932d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

CHW

xERA 3.30 (good)ERA 2.532d stress Stressed (8.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCLE-104-1.5 (+150)O8.5 (+100)CHW-102+1.5 (-181)U8.5 (-113)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCLE-110-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-106)CHW-106+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-122)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE4.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (+130/-166)CHW3.5 (-132/+114)2.5 (+120/-154)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UJoey Cantillo5.5 (-123 / +100)15.5 (+115 / -147)Davis Martin3.5 (-132 / +104)15.5 (-118 / -112)

Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

L5.08157225

Jul 29@

W4.08984100

Jul 24@

L3.27448155

Jul 19vs

L5.08077344

Jul 12@

W5.08596211

Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4@

L5.091110299

Jul 29vs

W6.010665244

Jul 24vs

L5.08836044

Jul 18@

L5.28554211

Jul 8vs

L4.08426255

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Joey Cantillo

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW5.24.374.55.51.0(2)

at CHW5.24.374.55.51.0(2)

Davis Martin

IPERAKHBB

vs CLE4.44.811.75.33.0(3)

home starts5.07.803.75.71.3(3)

Trends · CLE

CLE are 4-5 vs CHW this season (9 games).
CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
CLE are 2-3 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
CLE are 3-2 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 away starts.
CLE average 3.4 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
CLE average 4.6 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CLE are 3-2 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
CLE are 2-1 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 3 away starts.

Trends · CHW

CHW are 5-4 vs CLE this season (9 games).
CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
CHW are 1-4 in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
CHW are 3-2 in Davis Martin's last 5 home starts.
CHW average 2.6 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
CHW average 3.0 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CHW are 3-2 to the over in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
CHW are 2-1 to the over in Davis Martin's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

85°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph SSW

APF 101 — Neutral

Flags · 6

CLE — Joey Cantillo: HH% 55% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
CLE — Joey Cantillo: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
CHW — Davis Martin: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
CLE bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
CHW bullpen stressed (8.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CLE — Joey Cantillo: 2026-07-24: 5 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Two mediocre offenses meet two hittable starters in a near-even pick'em with nothing priced far enough off its fair value to bet.

MIN @

MIL

2:10 PM · American Family FieldRainy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Connor Prielipp L

xERA3.52 (good)ERA3.94K%25.4 (good)

More Stats

HH%47.5 (poor)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs81BB%11.1

MIL vs LHP

wRC+109 (avg)K%31.5 (poor)HH%42.9 (above avg)Whiff%31.6

J. Misiorowski R

xERA1.09 (elite)ERA1.69K%48.3 (elite)

More Stats

HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%3.7 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs77BB%3.5

MIN vs RHP

wRC+88 (below avg)K%16.3 (above avg)HH%43.7 (above avg)Whiff%19.4

Bullpens · Last 12

MIN

xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 3.632d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

MIL

xERA 3.02 (good)ERA 4.252d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIN+228+1.5 (-105)O7.5 (+103)MIL-240-1.5 (-110)U7.5 (-118)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIN+235+1.5 (-140)O3.5 (-144)MIL-280-1.5 (+108)U3.5 (+110)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIN2.5 (-110/-108)0.5 (-188/+145)MIL4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UConnor Prielipp5.5 (+114 / -122)15.5 (+135 / -154)J. Misiorowski8.5 (-120 / +109)17.5 (-207 / +154)

Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 1@

L5.18854433

Jul 26vs

W5.27252111

Jul 8vs

W5.08364233

Jun 28vs

W6.093106022

Jun 19@

L6.09749336

J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 2@

L7.083102122

Jul 26vs

W5.083121011

Jul 20vs

W4.06564101

Jul 7@

W7.0103113033

Jul 2vs

L5.082105015

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Connor Prielipp

IPERAKHBB

vs MIL6.01.508.03.02.0(1)

at MIL—

J. Misiorowski

IPERAKHBB

vs MIN6.03.006.01.01.0(1)

home starts4.71.299.33.30.3(3)

Trends · MIN

MIN are 2-3 vs MIL this season (5 games).
MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
MIN are 3-2 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
MIN are 1-4 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 away starts.
MIN average 5.6 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
MIN average 4.4 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
MIN are 2-3 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.

Trends · MIL

MIL are 3-2 vs MIN this season (5 games).
MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
MIL are 3-2 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
MIL average 5.0 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
MIL average 6.6 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

MIL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
MIL are 2-3 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
MIL are 1-2 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Rainy

84°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph SW

APF 101 — Neutral · Rain possible (38%)

Flags · 5

MIN — Connor Prielipp: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
MIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIL — J. Misiorowski: recent opponents high-K: COL 26%, LAA 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
WEATHER: rain risk 38% — game delay or conditions may affect performance

AI Analysis

Milwaukee is clearly the better side but a -240 price and 38% rain risk erase any value on the moneyline or spread.

COL @

STL✓

2:15 PM · Busch StadiumHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Michael Lorenzen R

xERA6.81 (poor)ERA13.50K%12.3 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs83BB%8.8

STL vs RHP

wRC+96 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%41.9 (above avg)Whiff%21.0

Michael McGreevy R

xERA7.11 (poor)ERA9.49K%16.7 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%61.4 (poor)Barrel%15.9 (poor)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs83BB%10.0

COL vs RHP

wRC+99 (avg)K%25.6 (below avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)Whiff%25.4

Bullpens · Last 12

COL

xERA 3.95 (avg)ERA 4.692d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)

STL

xERA 3.44 (good)ERA 4.182d stress Normal (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCOL+147+1.5 (-144)O9.5 (+104)STL-158-1.5 (+130)U9.5 (-120)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCOL+132+0.5 (-108)O5.5 (+112)STL-166-0.5 (-120)U5.5 (-146)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL4.5 (+114/+116)2.5 (+124/-160)STL4.5 (-130/+114)2.5 (-135/+105)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMichael Lorenzen3.5 (+134 / -161)15.5 (+116 / -154)Michael McGreevy3.5 (-132 / +110)17.5 (-117 / -113)

Michael Lorenzen · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 3vs

L3.07507377

Jul 28@

L4.09328133

Jul 21vs

W3.28057166

Jul 12@

L5.07915311

Jul 7@

W6.09556323

Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 3@

W4.19154122

Jul 28vs

L1.26328277

Jul 23vs

L6.19537344

Jul 17@

W6.19456112

Jul 8vs

W6.19065111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Michael Lorenzen

IPERAKHBB

vs STL2.228.642.07.01.0(1)

at STL2.228.642.07.01.0(1)

Michael McGreevy

IPERAKHBB

vs COL6.52.771.57.00.0(2)

home starts4.58.063.76.72.0(3)

Trends · COL

COL are 1-1 vs STL this season (2 games).
COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
COL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
COL are 2-3 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
COL are 2-3 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 away starts.
COL average 5.8 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
COL average 4.8 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
COL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
COL are 3-2 to the over in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
COL are 1-2 to the over in Michael Lorenzen's last 3 away starts.

Trends · STL

STL are 1-1 vs COL this season (2 games).
STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
STL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
STL are 3-2 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
STL are 1-4 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.
STL average 6.2 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
STL average 2.6 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

STL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
STL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
STL are 3-2 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
STL are 2-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hot

92°F, Overcast, Wind 13 mph S

APF 102 — Neutral

Flags · 6

COL — Michael Lorenzen: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
COL — Michael Lorenzen: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
COL — Michael Lorenzen: avg 3.6 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
STL — Michael McGreevy: HH% 61% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
STL — Michael McGreevy: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
COL — Michael Lorenzen: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

COL @ STL o9.5 (+104)

BAL @

TEX✓

2:35 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Cade Povich L

xERA5.01 (below avg)ERA5.54K%21.1 (avg)

More Stats

HH%48.7 (poor)Barrel%10.3 (avg)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs69BB%8.8

TEX vs LHP

wRC+70 (poor)K%27.7 (below avg)HH%42.0 (above avg)Whiff%27.1

Kumar Rocker R

xERA2.94 (elite)ERA2.50K%24.7 (good)

More Stats

HH%26.5 (elite)Barrel%4.1 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs84BB%8.2

BAL vs RHP

wRC+70 (poor)K%23.6 (avg)HH%38.3 (avg)Whiff%23.1

Bullpens · Last 12

BAL

xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 3.952d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)

TEX

xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 4.852d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBAL+121+1.5 (-181)O8.5 (-104)TEX-128-1.5 (+158)U8.0 (-104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBAL+105+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-115)TEX-124-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-113)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (-125/+104)1.5 (-160/+124)TEX4.5 (+120/-140)2.5 (+110/-140)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UCade Povich4.5 (-113 / -107)15.5 (+106 / -141)Kumar Rocker5.5 (+116 / -144)16.5 (-101 / -120)

Cade Povich · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

W6.08877100

May 7@

L3.04313233

May 1@

L4.07747255

Apr 12vs

W6.29755011

Apr 5@

L5.2*8724322

Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 2@

L5.188510233

Jul 27vs

W6.28874222

Jul 21vs

W6.07561200

Jul 11vs

L5.29168277

Jul 5vs

L4.18545133

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Kumar Rocker

IPERAKHBB

vs BAL—

home starts5.84.666.34.32.0(3)

Trends · BAL

BAL are 1-4 vs TEX this season (5 games).
BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
BAL are 2-2 in Cade Povich's last 4 starts.
BAL are 0-2 in Cade Povich's last 2 away starts.
BAL average 3.5 runs/game in Cade Povich's last 4 starts.
BAL average 2.5 runs/game in Cade Povich's last 2 away starts.

Over / Under

BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · TEX

TEX are 4-1 vs BAL this season (5 games).
TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
TEX have won 4 straight.
TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.
TEX average 5.2 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
TEX average 5.0 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
TEX are 4-1 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
TEX are 3-0 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 4

BAL — Cade Povich: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
BAL bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
BAL — Cade Povich: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-05 — may affect pitch count or availability
BAL — Cade Povich: 2026-05-01: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

BAL @ TEX u8.0 (-104)

Kumar Rocker o5.5 Ks (+116)

DET @

SFG

4:05 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Troy Melton R

xERA3.15 (good)ERA0.95K%19.2 (avg)

More Stats

HH%27.5 (elite)Barrel%3.9 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs93BB%11.0

SFG vs RHP

wRC+112 (avg)K%17.6 (above avg)HH%29.8 (poor)Whiff%19.1

Logan Webb R

xERA2.95 (elite)ERA3.00K%22.2 (avg)

More Stats

HH%34.6 (good)Barrel%5.8 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs97BB%5.6

DET vs RHP

wRC+157 (elite)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%38.6 (avg)Whiff%18.9

Bullpens · Last 12

DET

xERA 3.73 (good)ERA 4.142d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

SFG

xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 2.592d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalDET-114-1.5 (+146)O7.5 (-102)SFG+106+1.5 (-170)U7.5 (-114)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalDET-120-0.5 (+120)O3.5 (-144)SFG-104+0.5 (-156)U3.5 (+110)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UDET3.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (-135/+105)SFG3.5 (+100/-120)1.5 (-130/+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTroy Melton4.5 (-140 / +127)17.5 (-122 / +100)Logan Webb4.5 (-162 / +128)18.5 (-104 / -127)

Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4@

W7.09743200

Jul 28vs

W7.09253200

Jul 23vs

W5.09055422

Jul 17@

W5.29494411

Jul 8vs

W5.19194101

Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 3@

W6.09685100

Jul 29vs

W6.09645122

Jul 24vs

W6.09946244

Jul 18@

L6.210052133

Jul 8vs

L7.010625255

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Logan Webb

IPERAKHBB

vs DET6.04.5010.07.01.0(1)

home starts6.35.213.35.31.7(3)

Trends · DET

DET are 1-1 vs SFG this season (2 games).
DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
DET are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
DET are 5-0 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
DET are 4-1 in Troy Melton's last 5 away starts.
DET average 6.8 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
DET average 5.2 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
DET are 2-3 to the over in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
DET are 0-2 to the over in Troy Melton's last 2 away starts.

Trends · SFG

SFG are 1-1 vs DET this season (2 games).
SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
SFG are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
SFG are 3-2 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
SFG are 4-1 in Logan Webb's last 5 home starts.
SFG average 6.2 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
SFG average 6.6 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
SFG are 4-1 to the over in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
SFG are 3-0 to the over in Logan Webb's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

79°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph W

APF 100 — Neutral

Flags · 3

DET bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
SFG bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SFG — Logan Webb: recent opponents high-K: LAA 25%, TEX 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

AI Analysis

Detroit's elite offense vs right-handers runs into a strong Webb, and the pitcher-friendly park keeps the total honest with no side offering value.

LAD @

ARI

4:10 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Justin Wrobleski L

xERA6.19 (poor)ERA7.02K%24.7 (good)

More Stats

HH%46.0 (poor)Barrel%18.0 (poor)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs94BB%5.5

ARI vs LHP

wRC+118 (above avg)K%24.0 (below avg)HH%36.2 (avg)Whiff%24.3

E. Rodriguez L

xERA3.34 (good)ERA3.20K%11.9 (poor)

More Stats

HH%30.0 (elite)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs102BB%4.8

LAD vs LHP

wRC+126 (above avg)K%18.4 (above avg)HH%45.1 (elite)Whiff%20.0

Bullpens · Last 12

LAD

xERA 4.55 (below avg)ERA 6.492d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)

ARI

xERA 4.07 (avg)ERA 6.002d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalLAD-146-1.5 (+118)O9.0 (+100)ARI+125+1.5 (-140)U8.5 (+104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalLAD-135-0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-115)ARI+122+0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-113)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD4.5 (-118/-105)2.5 (+105/-135)ARI3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UJustin Wrobleski3.5 (-164 / +130)17.5 (-154 / +130)E. Rodriguez3.5 (-150 / +122)17.5 (-141 / +106)

Justin Wrobleski · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 3@

L4.19147377

Jul 28vs

L6.010277055

Jul 21@

W6.18975111

Jul 7vs

L7.09496211

Jun 30@

W7.0110117033

E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

L5.2102411057

Jul 29@

W8.010525100

Jul 24@

W6.09847322

Jul 19vs

W2.26837255

Jul 10@

W6.08757122

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Justin Wrobleski

IPERAKHBB

vs ARI6.00.004.06.00.0(1)

at ARI6.00.004.06.00.0(1)

E. Rodriguez

IPERAKHBB

vs LAD5.71.594.35.31.3(3)

home starts4.58.063.37.70.7(3)

Trends · LAD

LAD are 6-6 vs ARI this season (12 games).
LAD are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
LAD are 2-3 in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
LAD are 4-1 in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 away starts.
LAD average 5.0 runs/game in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
LAD average 7.2 runs/game in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
LAD are 3-2 to the over in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
LAD are 2-1 to the over in Justin Wrobleski's last 3 away starts.

Trends · ARI

ARI are 6-6 vs LAD this season (12 games).
ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
ARI are 3-2 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
ARI average 5.4 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
ARI average 5.4 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

ARI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
ARI are 3-2 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
ARI are 2-1 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 6

LAD — Justin Wrobleski: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
LAD — Justin Wrobleski: Barrel% 18% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
LAD bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
LAD — Justin Wrobleski: 2026-08-03: 7 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ARI — E. Rodriguez: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
ARI — E. Rodriguez: 2026-08-04: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Both left-handers face lineups hitting well against left-handed pitching and both bullpens have been leaky, but the prices already reflect a wide-open scoring environment with no clear mispriced side or total.

TBR @

SEA

4:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Ian Seymour L

xERA2.61 (elite)ERA2.16K%30.8 (elite)

More Stats

HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%11.6 (below avg)IP/gs16.7 IP/gsH/gs14.0PC/gs83BB%3.1

SEA vs LHP

wRC+95 (avg)K%23.4 (avg)HH%34.5 (below avg)Whiff%20.4

Emerson Hancock R

xERA2.87 (elite)ERA4.24K%18.7 (avg)

More Stats

HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs94BB%5.3

TBR vs RHP

wRC+118 (above avg)K%21.4 (avg)HH%37.6 (avg)Whiff%20.3

Bullpens · Last 12

TBR

xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 3.042d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

SEA

xERA 4.33 (avg)ERA 5.942d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)

Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 3@

W6.09097022

Jul 29vs

W4.2*7142100

Jul 23@

L6.0*8775122

Jul 18@

L3.06142233

Jul 12vs

L3.17836356

Emerson Hancock · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

L6.09468234

Jul 29@

L5.09258133

Jul 22vs

L6.09535122

Jul 12@

W1.21920100

Jul 5vs

W7.09252200

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ian Seymour

IPERAKHBB

vs SEA3.114.523.06.03.0(1)

at SEA—

Emerson Hancock

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR1.20.002.00.01.0(1)

home starts6.32.374.75.01.7(3)

Trends · TBR

TBR are 4-1 vs SEA this season (5 games).
TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
TBR have won 5 straight.
TBR are 3-2 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
TBR are 2-1 in Ian Seymour's last 3 away starts.
TBR average 6.4 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
TBR average 8.0 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 3 away starts.

Over / Under

TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
TBR are 1-4 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
TBR are 1-2 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 3 away starts.

Trends · SEA

SEA are 1-4 vs TBR this season (5 games).
SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.
SEA average 3.4 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
SEA average 2.2 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

SEA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
SEA are 1-3 to the over in Emerson Hancock's last 4 starts.

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

71°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph NW

APF 91 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 4

TBR bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
SEA bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-29, 2026-07-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 91) — park suppresses offense, favor the under

AI Analysis

No betting lines are available for this game.

HOU @

SDP✓

8:20 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Cristian Javier R

xERA2.68 (elite)ERA2.25K%23.9 (good)

More Stats

HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs12.0 IP/gsH/gs11.0PC/gs58BB%0.0

SDP vs RHP

wRC+127 (above avg)K%18.6 (above avg)HH%36.1 (avg)Whiff%20.4

Randy Vasquez R

xERA2.41 (elite)ERA0.68K%4.2 (poor)

More Stats

HH%26.8 (elite)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs61BB%8.3

HOU vs RHP

wRC+142 (elite)K%21.2 (avg)HH%40.2 (above avg)Whiff%24.7

Bullpens · Last 12

HOU

xERA 2.28 (elite)ERA 2.282d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)

SDP

xERA 2.28 (elite)ERA 3.182d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalHOU+105-1.5 (+158)O8.5 (-115)SDP-118-1.5 (+158)U8.5 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalHOU-110+0.5 (-152)O5.5 (+100)SDP-114-0.5 (+116)U5.5 (-130)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UHOU4.5 (+114/-145)SDP4.5 (+118/-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UCristian Javier3.5 (+120 / -136)14.5 (-140 / +106)Randy Vasquez2.5 (-146 / +130)14.5 (-117 / +100)

Cristian Javier · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 3vs

L6.08527033

Jul 27@

W5.0*7073000

Jul 19vs

L1.0*2021000

Jul 12@

L3.06044333

Jul 8@

L1.0*3001200

Randy Vasquez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4@

W6.08012100

Jul 30vs

L4.2*6513100

Jul 25@

W2.23701211

Jul 22@

L0.2*1914022

Jul 19@

W3.0*3223000

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Randy Vasquez

IPERAKHBB

vs HOU—

home starts4.09.003.08.02.0(1)

Trends · HOU

HOU are 1-1 vs SDP this season (2 games).
HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
HOU are 1-4 in Cristian Javier's last 5 starts.
HOU are 0-3 in Cristian Javier's last 3 away starts.
HOU average 4.4 runs/game in Cristian Javier's last 5 starts.
HOU average 3.3 runs/game in Cristian Javier's last 3 away starts.

Over / Under

HOU are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
HOU are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
HOU are 1-1 to the over in Cristian Javier's last 2 starts.

Trends · SDP

SDP are 1-1 vs HOU this season (2 games).
SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
SDP are 3-2 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
SDP are 2-3 in Randy Vasquez's last 5 home starts.
SDP average 7.8 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 starts.
SDP average 3.8 runs/game in Randy Vasquez's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
SDP are 3-0 to the over in Randy Vasquez's last 3 starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

75°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph SW

APF 99 — Neutral

Flags · 6

HOU bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SDP bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
HOU — Cristian Javier: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-19 — may affect pitch count or availability
HOU — Cristian Javier: recent opponents high-K: COL 26%, TEX 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
SDP — Randy Vasquez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-30, 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
SDP — Randy Vasquez: 2026-07-02: 4 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

Randy Vasquez u2.5 Ks (-146)