AI Picks · 10 Bets · Aug 14
Sandy Alcantara o5.5 Ks (-106)
Cincinnati is striking out at a 32.9% clip against right-handed pitching over its last 6 while scuffling to a 77 wRC+, exactly the whiff-prone profile a strikeout over feeds on. Alcantara has a 23.7 K% over his last 3 with 5, 5, and 8 punchouts, and he goes deep — 6.7 IP/gs — with the outs line set at 18.5, giving him the length to clear the number. A high-K opponent plus a durable arm makes 5.5 too low at even money.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
PIT Team Total u3.5 (-125)
Pittsburgh cannot hit left-handed pitching, sitting at a 59 wRC+ over its last 6 and 61 over its last 12 vs LHP — an established, not streaky, weakness, with a 30.9 K% over that span. Bennett carries a 2.62 xERA over his last 3 that his 5.19 ERA badly understates, meaning the market is pricing a pitcher who has actually been much better. Behind him Boston's bullpen owns a 2.34 xERA over its last 12. A punchless lineup against a quietly excellent starter and an elite bullpen should struggle to reach four runs.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
TBR Team Total o4.5 (+105)
Tampa Bay has been mashing right-handed pitching, at a 161 wRC+ over its last 6 and 144 over its last 12 — both elite and pointing the same way. Bassitt is a contact-oriented arm (11.9 K% over his last 3, 10.4 Barrel%) who hasn't started in 72 days and threw only 56 pitches his last time out, so he isn't stretched and figures for a short leash, and TBR has scored 5 and 3 earned in his last two meetings against them. Once he exits, Baltimore's bullpen sits at a 5.90 ERA over its last 12. Getting plus money on a top-form lineup against a rusty pitcher and a leaking bullpen is the value.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
Chris Bassitt u3.5 Ks (+146)
Bassitt has generated just 4, 2, and 1 strikeouts over his last 3 starts on an 11.9 K% and faces a Tampa Bay lineup that puts everything in play at a 13.1 K% over its last 6 vs RHP. Coming off a 56-pitch outing after 72 days idle, he projects for a short, contact-heavy afternoon with few whiffs available. Getting plus money on the under when both the pitcher's swing-and-miss and the opponent's contact profile point the same way is a clear overlay.
Found at 4:30 PM ET
Michael King u4.5 Ks (+124)
Cleveland is the single hardest lineup on the board to strike out at a 10.2 K% over its last 6 vs RHP, roughly half the rate of the low-K clubs (COL 19%, ARI 18%) King has faced recently while posting 6, 5, and 6 punchouts. Against a lineup that makes this much contact, even a 25.0 K% arm over ~5.7 innings projects to only 2-3 strikeouts. The plus-money under sits well above a realistic total against the softest whiff matchup available.
Found at 4:30 PM ET
Gerrit Cole o5.5 Ks (+126)
Cole has a 28.4% strikeout rate over his last 3 with punchout totals of 7, 5, and 9, and his 18.5-out line gives him the length to pile them up. Toronto's 19.8% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6 is ordinary, not a contact wall, so nothing about this matchup suppresses his rate. Getting plus money on a total his recent form clears in two of three outings is a mispriced number on an ace working deep.
Found at 10:48 AM ET
George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+126)
Kirby's bat-missing has vanished — a 12.1% strikeout rate over his last 3 with just 3, 3, and 2 punchouts in those starts. Houston makes solid contact at a 20.0% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6, offering no help getting there. Reaching five would mean nearly doubling his recent per-start output, and plus money on the under is a gift given how few whiffs he is generating right now.
Found at 10:48 AM ET
SFG Team Total u3.5 (+105)
San Francisco has been historically helpless against left-handed pitching, posting a -28 wRC+ over its last 6 and just 16 over its last 12 vs LHP with a 36.2 K% — both windows catastrophic. Freeland brings a 3.15 xERA over his last 3 into a pitcher-friendly park. Getting plus money on the under for a lineup that essentially cannot score against lefties, facing a solid one, is a clear mispricing.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
Landen Roupp u5.5 Ks (-110)
Roupp has managed only 1, 6, and 3 strikeouts over his last 3 on a 15.4 K%, and his 18.5 BB% keeps him to short outings that cap his chances at whiffs. Colorado makes steady contact at an 18.8 K% over its last 6 vs RHP, so a 5.5 line sits more than two strikeouts above his recent average with little length to bridge the gap.
Found at 4:30 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
CHC Team Total o4.5 (+100)
The Cubs are crushing left-handed pitching at a 160 wRC+ over their last 6 and 162 over their last 12 — elite and fully established. Liberatore is a modest lefty (3.13 xERA but only 4.9 IP/gs over his last 3) whom Chicago squared up for 8 hits and 3 runs in 3.2 innings his last time facing them. His short outings hand the game to a St. Louis bullpen carrying a 4.70 xERA over its last 12. Even money on the league's hottest lineup against a hittable lefty and a soft bullpen is the price to take.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
STL @
CHC✓2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
STL @
CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
M. Liberatore L
xERA3.13 (good)ERA4.91K%23.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs91BB%7.9
CHC vs LHP · last 6
wRC+151 (elite)12+162K%27.8 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)Whiff%21.4
Clay Holmes R
xERA4.41 (avg)ERA6.43K%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs82BB%9.2
STL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+105 (avg)12+107K%18.5 (above avg)HH%37.0 (avg)Whiff%20.1
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.70 (below avg)ERA 4.022d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 3.58 (good)ERA 3.292d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+1580+2.5 (+225)O3.5 (-160)CHC-2800-2.5 (-260)U3.5 (+125)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+150+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (+100)CHC-168-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (+105/-132)1.5 (-110/-120)CHC4.5 (+106/-125)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UM. Liberatore4.5 (+113 / -128)15.5 (+136 / -159)Clay Holmes3.5 (-132 / +114)15.5 (+103 / -137)
M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14@
L5.19562122
L5.19562122Aug 8vs
L5.09439255
L5.09439255Aug 2@
W6.08571100
W6.08571100Jul 27vs
L3.26758233
L3.26758233Jul 21@
L5.19579255
L5.19579255Clay Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs
W6.28031100
W6.28031100Aug 8@
L4.07016244
L4.07016244May 15vs
L4.19587244
L4.19587244May 9@
L5.210365222
L5.210365222May 3@
W6.29964311
W6.29964311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.45.414.74.71.7(3)
at CHC5.04.174.33.32.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14@
L5.19562122
L5.19562122Jul 27vs
L3.26758233
L3.26758233Jul 5@
L5.07834234
L5.07834234Jul 5@
W5.09444422
W5.09444422Clay Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.82.593.74.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs
W6.28031100
W6.28031100Mar 30@
W5.29054322
W5.29054322May 2@
W6.09238033
W6.09238033home starts5.42.215.73.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs
W6.28031100
W6.28031100May 15vs
L4.19587244
L4.19587244Apr 28vs
W6.09463100
W6.09463100Trends · STL
- STL are 5-5 vs CHC this season (10 games).
- STL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 3.8 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 4.2 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 0-3 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 5-5 vs STL this season (10 games).
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 0-1 in Clay Holmes's last 1 starts.
- CHC average 3.0 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph E
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- CHC — Clay Holmes: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-08-08: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHC — Clay Holmes: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CHC — Clay Holmes: low-K outing 2026-08-08 (1 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- CHC — Clay Holmes: recent opponents low-K: ARI 18%, KCR 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
CHC Team Total o4.5 (+100)
The Cubs are crushing left-handed pitching at a 160 wRC+ over their last 6 and 162 over their last 12 — elite and fully established. Liberatore is a modest lefty (3.13 xERA but only 4.9 IP/gs over his last 3) whom Chicago squared up for 8 hits and 3 runs in 3.2 innings his last time facing them. His short outings hand the game to a St. Louis bullpen carrying a 4.70 xERA over its last 12. Even money on the league's hottest lineup against a hittable lefty and a soft bullpen is the price to take.
MIA @
CIN✓6:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
MIA @
CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Sandy Alcantara R
xERA2.69 (elite)ERA0.00K%23.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.7 (below avg)Barrel%7.4 (good)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs102BB%5.3
CIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+68 (poor)12+109K%26.9 (below avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Whiff%29.3
Chase Burns R
xERA3.31 (good)ERA3.86K%27.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.5 (below avg)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs91BB%10.1
MIA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+128 (above avg)12+97K%22.8 (avg)HH%42.2 (above avg)Whiff%23.2
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.75 (avg)ERA 4.102d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 2.26 (elite)ERA 4.642d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+104-1.5 (+168)O8.0 (-105)CIN-112+1.5 (-200)U8.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+106+0.5 (-146)O3.5 (-135)CIN-125-0.5 (+112)U3.5 (+104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA3.5 (-125/+105)1.5 (-135/+105)CIN3.5 (-125/+105)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USandy Alcantara6.5 (+127 / +110)18.5 (+100 / -121)Chase Burns6.5 (-105 / -115)17.5 (-112 / -104)
Sandy Alcantara · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
W7.010883100
W7.010883100Aug 2@
W6.010254200
W6.010254200Jul 28vs
W7.09754100
W7.09754100Jul 22@
L7.010839155
L7.010839155Jul 17@
L6.010473411
L6.010473411Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@
L5.19666355
L5.19666355Aug 2vs
W6.08892211
W6.08892211Jul 28vs
L5.08945215
L5.08945215Jul 21@
W5.09163200
W5.09163200Jul 8vs
W5.010623633
W5.010623633SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sandy Alcantara
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN6.45.184.75.72.0(3)
at CIN5.010.804.09.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 7vs
L8.19563222
L8.19563222Jul 9@
L5.010849266
L5.010849266Apr 23vs
L6.010245233
L6.010245233Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA—
home starts5.32.815.03.33.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs
W6.08892211
W6.08892211Jul 28vs
L5.08945215
L5.08945215Jul 8vs
W5.010623633
W5.010623633Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-2 vs CIN this season (4 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 2.6 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.4 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 1-4 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 0-3 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-2 vs MIA this season (4 games).
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-2 in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 4.2 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 7.6 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 3-2 to the over in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-0 to the over in Chase Burns's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph ENE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- MIA — Sandy Alcantara: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CIN — Chase Burns: 2026-08-08: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Sandy Alcantara o5.5 Ks (-106)
Cincinnati is striking out at a 32.9% clip against right-handed pitching over its last 6 while scuffling to a 77 wRC+, exactly the whiff-prone profile a strikeout over feeds on. Alcantara has a 23.7 K% over his last 3 with 5, 5, and 8 punchouts, and he goes deep — 6.7 IP/gs — with the outs line set at 18.5, giving him the length to clear the number. A high-K opponent plus a durable arm makes 5.5 too low at even money.
BOS @
PIT✓6:40 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
BOS @
PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Jake Bennett L
xERA2.62 (elite)ERA5.19K%17.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.9 (good)Barrel%3.6 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs88BB%9.2
PIT vs LHP · last 6
wRC+94 (below avg)12+75K%27.4 (below avg)HH%37.8 (avg)Whiff%26.6
Bubba Chandler R
xERA4.51 (below avg)ERA3.45K%19.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs91BB%9.1
BOS vs RHP · last 6
wRC+97 (avg)12+143K%16.2 (above avg)HH%31.3 (below avg)Whiff%23.0
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 1.89 (elite)ERA 2.932d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 2.59 (elite)ERA 2.682d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-116-1.5 (+135)O8.0 (-105)PIT+112+1.5 (-156)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-125-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-108)PIT+102+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+114/-138)2.5 (+120/-154)PIT3.5 (-115/-113)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Bennett4.5 (+114 / -132)17.5 (+100 / -125)Bubba Chandler4.5 (+116 / -131)15.5 (+117 / -155)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
L5.18855344
L5.18855344Aug 2@
W5.28846233
W5.28846233Jul 28@
L6.18846233
L6.18846233Jul 22vs
W5.28349033
W5.28349033Jul 17vs
W6.06531100
W6.06531100Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
W6.08553100
W6.08553100Aug 3@
W5.29654423
W5.29654423Jul 28vs
L4.09137135
L4.09137135Jul 22@
L6.18452100
L6.18452100Jul 11vs
W4.29765322
W4.29765322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS—
home starts4.73.174.75.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
W6.08553100
W6.08553100Jul 28vs
L4.09137135
L4.09137135Jul 11vs
W4.29765322
W4.29765322Trends · BOS
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 4.0 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.6 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 1-2 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 4-1 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 4.0 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 5.4 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 to the over in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-1 to the over in Bubba Chandler's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph W
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- PIT bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Jake Bennett: recent opponents high-K: ATH 33%, ATH 33% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
PIT Team Total u3.5 (-125)
Pittsburgh cannot hit left-handed pitching, sitting at a 59 wRC+ over its last 6 and 61 over its last 12 vs LHP — an established, not streaky, weakness, with a 30.9 K% over that span. Bennett carries a 2.62 xERA over his last 3 that his 5.19 ERA badly understates, meaning the market is pricing a pitcher who has actually been much better. Behind him Boston's bullpen owns a 2.34 xERA over its last 12. A punchless lineup against a quietly excellent starter and an elite bullpen should struggle to reach four runs.
CHW @
DET6:40 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
CHW @
DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
DET
No data
Jackson Jobe R
xERA2.90 (elite)ERA0.00K%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs1.0PC/gs71BB%6.2
CHW vs RHP · last 6
wRC+103 (avg)12+88K%26.2 (below avg)HH%38.2 (avg)Whiff%21.1
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 3.272d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 2.612d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+124+1.5 (-170)O8.5 (-118)DET-128-1.5 (+150)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+110+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (-125)DET-130-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (-104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-145/+114)2.5 (+124/-160)DET4.5 (+102/-120)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTBD——Jackson Jobe4.5 (-116 / -108)14.5 (-154 / +125)
Jackson Jobe · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@
W5.07141100
W5.07141100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jackson Jobe
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.03.604.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 6vs
W5.08644323
W5.08644323home starts4.83.754.74.73.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 28vs
W4.29547333
W4.29547333May 23vs
L5.08934222
L5.08934222May 12vs
W5.210073511
W5.210073511Trends · CHW
- CHW are 3-3 vs DET this season (6 games).
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- CHW are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-3 vs CHW this season (6 games).
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 1-0 in Jackson Jobe's last 1 starts.
- DET average 8.0 runs/game in Jackson Jobe's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 5 mph SE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- CHW — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- DET — Jackson Jobe: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- CHW bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- DET — Jackson Jobe: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Chicago starts an unlisted pitcher with no data and Detroit's Jobe has thrown just 5 innings over his recent starts, leaving nothing quantifiable to bet.
BAL @
TBR✓7:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
BAL @
TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Chris Bassitt R
xERA4.12 (avg)ERA4.73K%11.9 (poor)
More Stats
HH%27.1 (elite)Barrel%10.4 (avg)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs65BB%5.1
TBR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+161 (elite)12+144K%13.1 (elite)HH%33.8 (below avg)Whiff%18.1
Steven Matz
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
BAL
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 5.902d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 4.16 (avg)ERA 4.152d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+142+1.5 (-160)O8.5 (-101)TBR-151-1.5 (+134)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL+134+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-118)TBR-166-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-130/+100)TBR4.5 (+102/-130)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChris Bassitt3.5 (+123 / +146)15.5 (+113 / +100)Steven Matz——
Chris Bassitt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 3@
L3.05616233
L3.05616233May 28vs
L6.08024111
L6.08024111May 22vs
W4.1*5846033
W4.1*5846033May 16@
L5.08246144
L5.08246144May 10vs
W6.0*9464111
W6.0*9464111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chris Bassitt
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR4.46.093.78.02.0(3)
at TBR4.08.892.58.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 18@
L4.18938233
L4.18938233May 25@
L4.08229255
L4.08229255May 14vs
W5.29667211
W5.29667211Trends · BAL
- BAL are 3-3 vs TBR this season (6 games).
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 2-3 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 5.4 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 3-3 vs BAL this season (6 games).
- TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR have won 9 straight.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 7
- TBR — Steven Matz: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- BAL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: 72 days since last start (2026-06-03) — may not be fully stretched out
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-22, 2026-05-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: last start: 56 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: 2026-06-03: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TBR Team Total o4.5 (+105)
Tampa Bay has been mashing right-handed pitching, at a 161 wRC+ over its last 6 and 144 over its last 12 — both elite and pointing the same way. Bassitt is a contact-oriented arm (11.9 K% over his last 3, 10.4 Barrel%) who hasn't started in 72 days and threw only 56 pitches his last time out, so he isn't stretched and figures for a short leash, and TBR has scored 5 and 3 earned in his last two meetings against them. Once he exits, Baltimore's bullpen sits at a 5.90 ERA over its last 12. Getting plus money on a top-form lineup against a rusty pitcher and a leaking bullpen is the value.
Chris Bassitt u3.5 Ks (+146)
Bassitt has generated just 4, 2, and 1 strikeouts over his last 3 starts on an 11.9 K% and faces a Tampa Bay lineup that puts everything in play at a 13.1 K% over its last 6 vs RHP. Coming off a 56-pitch outing after 72 days idle, he projects for a short, contact-heavy afternoon with few whiffs available. Getting plus money on the under when both the pitcher's swing-and-miss and the opponent's contact profile point the same way is a clear overlay.
SDP @
CLE✓7:10 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
SDP @
CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Michael King R
xERA3.04 (good)ERA4.24K%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%22.2 (elite)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs98BB%8.8
CLE vs RHP · last 6
wRC+89 (below avg)12+95K%10.2 (elite)HH%30.6 (below avg)Whiff%13.4
Gavin Williams R
xERA1.68 (elite)ERA1.96K%44.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%9.4 (avg)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs97BB%6.2
SDP vs RHP · last 6
wRC+114 (avg)12+115K%16.8 (above avg)HH%38.6 (avg)Whiff%20.5
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.39 (elite)ERA 3.222d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 5.00 (below avg)ERA 6.382d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+111-1.5 (+184)O7.0 (-115)CLE-116-1.5 (+172)U7.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+105+0.5 (-146)O3.5 (-135)CLE-128-0.5 (+112)U3.5 (+104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (-115/-115)CLE3.5 (-108/-115)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael King4.5 (+123 / +124)17.5 (-102 / -115)Gavin Williams7.5 (+124 / -149)17.5 (-200 / +150)
Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
W6.09363111
W6.09363111Aug 3@
L5.010455433
L5.010455433Jul 28vs
W6.09866144
W6.09866144Jul 22@
L6.010475411
L6.010475411Jul 17@
L5.09744211
L5.09744211Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@
L5.210273222
L5.210273222Aug 2vs
W5.289101100
W5.289101100Jul 28@
L7.0101123122
L7.0101123122Jul 23vs
L7.097112000
L7.097112000Jul 18vs
L6.084117055
L6.084117055SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.00.0011.02.01.0(1)
at CLE—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 1vs
W5.088112100
W5.088112100Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP—
home starts6.12.4710.73.30.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs
W5.289101100
W5.289101100Jul 23vs
L7.097112000
L7.097112000Jul 18vs
L6.084117055
L6.084117055Trends · SDP
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have won 5 straight.
- SDP are 2-3 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 0-5 in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 4.8 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 3.6 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 3-2 to the over in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-1 to the over in Michael King's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 2.0 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 2.2 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 0-3 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph NNE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- CLE bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.00 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- SDP bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — Michael King: recent opponents low-K: COL 19%, ARI 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CLE — Gavin Williams: recent opponents high-K: CIN 27%, CHW 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Michael King u4.5 Ks (+124)
Cleveland is the single hardest lineup on the board to strike out at a 10.2 K% over its last 6 vs RHP, roughly half the rate of the low-K clubs (COL 19%, ARI 18%) King has faced recently while posting 6, 5, and 6 punchouts. Against a lineup that makes this much contact, even a 25.0 K% arm over ~5.7 innings projects to only 2-3 strikeouts. The plus-money under sits well above a realistic total against the softest whiff matchup available.
WSN @
NYM7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
WSN @
NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA3.28 (good)ERA2.25K%15.9 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs8.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs78BB%11.1
NYM vs LHP · last 6
wRC+71 (poor)12+133K%21.5 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)Whiff%23.6
Robert Stock R
xERA4.97 (below avg)ERA10.13K%19.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%29.6 (elite)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs75BB%12.2
WSN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+120 (above avg)12+104K%21.8 (avg)HH%42.2 (above avg)Whiff%24.9
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.92 (below avg)ERA 3.822d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 3.572d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+106+1.5 (-198)O8.5 (-110)NYM-114-1.5 (+180)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN-108+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-120)NYM-116-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN4.5 (+114/+116)2.5 (+120/-154)NYM4.5 (+114/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Alvarez4.5 (+115 / -135)14.5 (-132 / +101)Robert Stock3.5 (-142 / +121)14.5 (-125 / -102)
Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
W5.17323111
W5.17323111Aug 3@
L6.18153322
L6.18153322Jul 27vs
L4.1*8034311
L4.1*8034311Jul 20@
W4.17426333
W4.17426333Jul 12vs
L2.0*4024133
L2.0*4024133Robert Stock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@
L3.08049588
L3.08049588Aug 2vs
L5.07043011
L5.07043011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Alvarez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM3.111.614.07.01.0(1)
at NYM3.111.614.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19@
L3.18147146
L3.18147146Robert Stock
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN—
home starts5.01.804.03.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs
L5.07043011
L5.07043011Trends · WSN
- WSN are 4-3 vs NYM this season (7 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 4.4 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 4.0 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 3-4 vs WSN this season (7 games).
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 0-2 in Robert Stock's last 2 starts.
- NYM are 0-1 in Robert Stock's last 1 home starts.
- NYM average 0.0 runs/game in Robert Stock's last 2 starts.
- NYM average 0.0 runs/game in Robert Stock's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 0-2 to the over in Robert Stock's last 2 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SSE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- NYM — Robert Stock: small sample (8.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- NYM — Robert Stock: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- WSN bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: last start: 73 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent opponents low-K: COL 17%, CIN 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- NYM — Robert Stock: 2026-08-08: 8 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 24) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Stock's ugly numbers come on a tiny sample and the Mets' 71 wRC+ over the last 6 vs LHP is a sharp drop from 133 over the last 12, so the correction risk cuts against fading either way.
ARI @
ATL7:15 PM · Truist ParkHot
ARI @
ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA2.05 (elite)ERA0.00K%11.8 (poor)
More Stats
HH%27.0 (elite)Barrel%3.2 (elite)IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs95BB%5.3
ATL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+79 (poor)12+108K%28.1 (poor)HH%46.3 (elite)Whiff%25.3
Chris Sale L
xERA2.01 (elite)ERA3.00K%41.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%4.4
ARI vs LHP · last 6
wRC+173 (elite)12+146K%14.6 (elite)HH%33.3 (below avg)Whiff%13.6
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.11 (avg)ERA 3.952d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 3.762d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+180+1.5 (-125)O8.0 (-106)ATL-191-1.5 (+105)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+164+0.5 (+106)O4.5 (+100)ATL-195-0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI3.5 (+114/-140)1.5 (-115/-115)ATL4.5 (-104/-115)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Pfaadt3.5 (-109 / -113)17.5 (-104 / -127)Chris Sale6.5 (-105 / -106)17.5 (-174 / +142)
Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
L7.09322200
L7.09322200Aug 3vs
W6.29035101
W6.29035101Jul 28@
W7.010146100
W7.010146100Jul 23@
W6.08717222
W6.08717222Jul 18vs
W5.18736022
W5.18736022Chris Sale · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@
L6.010385233
L6.010385233Jul 29@
W6.09492000
W6.09492000Jul 23vs
W6.098115133
W6.098115133Jul 17vs
W7.08962000
W7.08962000Jul 10@
L3.04352100
L3.04352100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL4.47.503.37.01.7(3)
at ATL3.018.002.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 5vs
W4.27926233
W4.27926233Jun 5@
W3.07426266
W3.07426266Apr 27vs
W6.010069123
W6.010069123Chris Sale
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.51.647.04.03.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 4vs
L6.0103103411
L6.0103103411Apr 25@
W5.010445211
W5.010445211home starts6.03.006.74.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs
W6.098115133
W6.098115133Jul 17vs
W7.08962000
W7.08962000Jul 4vs
W5.09837233
W5.09837233Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-2 vs ATL this season (4 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 5.8 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 7.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 3-2 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-0 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 2-2 vs ARI this season (4 games).
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 5.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 8.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 3-2 to the over in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-0 to the over in Chris Sale's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
94°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph WNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent opponents low-K: SDP 17%, LAD 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- ATL — Chris Sale: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
Arizona's elite form vs lefties (173 over the last 6, 146 over the last 12) collides with a Sale who owns a 1.64 ERA across two starts against them, leaving no clean edge on the total or either side at these prices.
NYY @
TOR✓7:15 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
NYY @
TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Gerrit Cole R
xERA2.98 (elite)ERA1.45K%28.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.8 (below avg)Barrel%2.1 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs93BB%6.8
TOR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+126 (above avg)12+99K%19.8 (above avg)HH%28.6 (poor)Whiff%19.2
Shane Bieber R
xERA6.27 (poor)ERA7.50K%15.9 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%9.5 (avg)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs75BB%17.5
NYY vs RHP · last 6
wRC+95 (avg)12+92K%27.5 (below avg)HH%41.4 (above avg)Whiff%24.6
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 3.642d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 4.052d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-136-1.5 (+120)O8.0 (-104)TOR+132+1.5 (-135)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-156-0.5 (-108)O4.5 (+104)TOR+130+0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-135)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY4.5 (+110/-125)2.5 (+120/-154)TOR3.5 (+100/-128)1.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole5.5 (+126 / -158)18.5 (+148 / -186)Shane Bieber5.5 (+134 / -151)16.5 (-115 / +110)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
W7.08296022
W7.08296022Aug 2@
W5.29954311
W5.29954311Jul 28@
W6.09974200
W6.09974200Jul 22vs
L7.093114033
L7.093114033Jul 17vs
L6.010384122
L6.010384122Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@
L5.29746355
L5.29746355Aug 3@
W5.28769211
W5.28769211Jul 28@
L0.24201644
L0.24201644Jul 23vs
W7.08633011
W7.08633011Jul 18vs
W6.08063200
W6.08063200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane Bieber
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY—
home starts6.01.494.33.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs
W7.08633011
W7.08633011Jul 18vs
W6.08063200
W6.08063200Jun 28vs
L5.19245422
L5.19245422Trends · NYY
- NYY are 4-3 vs TOR this season (7 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 2.8 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 1.8 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 1-4 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 0-3 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-4 vs NYY this season (7 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-2 in Shane Bieber's last 4 home starts.
- TOR average 3.8 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.2 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 2-3 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 0-2 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph SSE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- TOR — Shane Bieber: BB% 17% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: recent opponents high-K: CHW 26%, ATL 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Gerrit Cole o5.5 Ks (+126)
Cole has a 28.4% strikeout rate over his last 3 with punchout totals of 7, 5, and 9, and his 18.5-out line gives him the length to pile them up. Toronto's 19.8% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6 is ordinary, not a contact wall, so nothing about this matchup suppresses his rate. Getting plus money on a total his recent form clears in two of three outings is a mispriced number on an ace working deep.
SEA @
HOU✓8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
SEA @
HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
George Kirby R
xERA4.11 (avg)ERA4.50K%12.1 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs86BB%4.5
HOU vs RHP · last 6
wRC+40 (poor)12+123K%20.0 (avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)Whiff%24.5
Peter Lambert R
xERA3.11 (good)ERA3.45K%25.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%9.0
SEA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+70 (poor)12+85K%24.2 (below avg)HH%44.8 (above avg)Whiff%25.1
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.52 (below avg)ERA 7.902d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 1.392d stress Stressed (8.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+106-1.5 (+176)O8.5 (+100)HOU-114+1.5 (-200)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+100+0.5 (-146)O4.5 (-106)HOU-120-0.5 (+112)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-135/+110)1.5 (-145/+114)HOU3.5 (-140/+116)2.5 (+130/-166)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGeorge Kirby4.5 (-158 / +126)17.5 (-134 / +101)Peter Lambert4.5 (-154 / +125)17.5 (-118 / -110)
George Kirby · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
L5.09924211
L5.09924211Aug 2vs
W7.09435100
W7.09435100Jul 27@
L4.06637077
L4.06637077Jul 20vs
W6.08063100
W6.08063100Jul 8@
L6.08678022
L6.08678022Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@
L5.09735323
L5.09735323Aug 2vs
W5.28383222
W5.28383222Jul 28@
W5.09067122
W5.09067122Jul 22vs
W6.08936222
W6.08936222Jul 17vs
L6.0104103311
L6.0104103311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
George Kirby
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU6.11.486.76.31.0(3)
at HOU4.73.806.06.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 11@
W5.09977211
W5.09977211Apr 13vs
W7.29967122
W7.29967122Sep 20@
W6.010075000
W6.010075000May 22@
L3.27246155
L3.27246155Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA7.03.866.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 11vs
L7.09666133
L7.09666133home starts5.72.627.04.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs
W5.28383222
W5.28383222Jul 22vs
W6.08936222
W6.08936222Jul 17vs
L6.0104103311
L6.0104103311Trends · SEA
- SEA are 7-1 vs HOU this season (8 games).
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 2-3 in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-4 in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 1.6 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-2 to the over in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-1 to the over in George Kirby's last 2 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 1-7 vs SEA this season (8 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 3.8 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 4.0 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 0-5 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 0-3 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- SEA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- HOU bullpen stressed (8.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SEA — George Kirby: 2026-07-27: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+126)
Kirby's bat-missing has vanished — a 12.1% strikeout rate over his last 3 with just 3, 3, and 2 punchouts in those starts. Houston makes solid contact at a 20.0% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6, offering no help getting there. Reaching five would mean nearly doubling his recent per-start output, and plus money on the under is a gift given how few whiffs he is generating right now.
KCR @
LAA9:38 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
KCR @
LAAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Seth Lugo R
xERA3.81 (avg)ERA4.76K%13.7 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%31.5 (good)Barrel%1.8 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs91BB%11.0
LAA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+67 (poor)12+66K%29.9 (poor)HH%30.9 (below avg)Whiff%26.4
G. Rodriguez R
xERA4.10 (avg)ERA3.94K%29.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs93BB%10.3
KCR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+79 (poor)12+89K%14.0 (elite)HH%39.2 (avg)Whiff%16.7
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.69 (below avg)ERA 5.152d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.63 (elite)ERA 3.882d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR-108-1.5 (+141)O8.5 (-108)LAA+101+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR-114-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-120)LAA-110+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR4.5 (+110/-130)2.5 (+124/-160)LAA3.5 (-140/+114)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo4.5 (-132 / +117)17.5 (-120 / -106)G. Rodriguez5.5 (+128 / -158)15.5 (-123 / -107)
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
W6.09055133
W6.09055133Aug 2@
L5.09935555
L5.09935555Jul 28@
L6.08426211
L6.08426211Jul 22vs
W7.09453233
W7.09453233Jul 17vs
W6.09034212
W6.09034212G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@
L4.08384434
L4.08384434Aug 4@
L7.09863122
L7.09863122Jul 29vs
L5.09865222
L5.09865222Jul 24@
L4.08036255
L4.08036255Jul 18vs
L4.08737166
L4.08737166SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.110.333.014.01.0(1)
at LAA—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 26vs
W6.197314177
W6.197314177G. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR—
home starts3.78.113.35.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29vs
L5.09865222
L5.09865222Jul 18vs
L4.08737166
L4.08737166Jun 14vs
L2.14713222
L2.14713222Trends · KCR
- KCR are 3-0 vs LAA this season (3 games).
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR have lost 4 straight.
- KCR are 3-2 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 4.2 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 4.6 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 0-3 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-3 vs KCR this season (3 games).
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 0-5 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-5 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 2.8 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 2.6 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 2-3 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-1 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- LAA — G. Rodriguez: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR — Seth Lugo: 2026-08-02: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both lineups are poor vs RHP (79 and 67 over the last 6) but the total and near-even moneyline already capture two flawed offenses, with no price out of line.
TEX @
ATH9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
TEX @
ATHMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Kumar Rocker R
xERA4.42 (avg)ERA6.60K%24.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%10.6 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs82BB%8.6
ATH vs RHP · last 6
wRC+99 (avg)12+86K%20.6 (avg)HH%31.6 (below avg)Whiff%23.7
Gage Jump L
xERA3.44 (good)ERA4.60K%32.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%25.7 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs93BB%17.1
TEX vs LHP · last 6
wRC+98 (avg)12+117K%27.0 (below avg)HH%50.0 (elite)Whiff%28.5
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 4.272d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 4.79 (below avg)ERA 8.662d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-106-1.5 (+144)O9.5 (-104)ATH-102+1.5 (-170)U9.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-105+0.5 (-148)O5.5 (+108)ATH-118-0.5 (+114)U5.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX4.5 (-118/-105)2.5 (+105/-135)ATH4.5 (-102/-120)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKumar Rocker4.5 (+117 / -128)15.5 (-103 / -129)Gage Jump6.5 (+110 / +120)15.5 (-129 / -103)
Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs
L3.06957266
L3.06957266Aug 2@
L5.188510233
L5.188510233Jul 27vs
W6.28874222
W6.28874222Jul 21vs
W6.07561200
W6.07561200Jul 11vs
L5.29168277
L5.29168277Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@
W6.0100116222
W6.0100116222Aug 2vs
L3.28854666
L3.28854666Jul 28vs
W6.09073400
W6.09073400Jul 22@
L4.28358466
L4.28358466Jul 17vs
L3.28784234
L3.28784234SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH3.87.113.75.72.3(3)
at ATH2.711.674.05.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 26vs
L6.08436222
L6.08436222Apr 15@
L4.29764422
L4.29764422Apr 23@
L1.26327155
L1.26327155Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX—
home starts4.16.536.73.74.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs
L3.28854666
L3.28854666Jul 28vs
W6.09073400
W6.09073400Jul 17vs
L3.28784234
L3.28784234Trends · TEX
- TEX are 3-4 vs ATH this season (7 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 5.6 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.2 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 4-1 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 4-3 vs TEX this season (7 games).
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-4 in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 3-2 to the over in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-1 to the over in Gage Jump's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph WSW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- ATH — Gage Jump: BB% 17% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 2026-08-09: 6 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-08-02: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Gage Jump: recent opponents high-K: BOS 32%, BOS 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Two shaky, short-outing starters into two poor bullpens is exactly what the 9.5 total already reflects, and both lineups sit near league average with no mispriced side.
MIL @
LAD10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
MIL @
LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Robert Gasser L
xERA4.65 (below avg)ERA3.45K%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs82BB%6.0
LAD vs LHP · last 6
wRC+87 (below avg)12+121K%23.9 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)Whiff%23.2
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA2.60 (elite)ERA1.83K%17.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs101BB%9.0
MIL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+78 (poor)12+86K%24.2 (below avg)HH%41.5 (above avg)Whiff%26.2
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.53 (elite)ERA 2.382d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 4.072d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+166+1.5 (-137)O7.5 (-114)LAD-174-1.5 (+125)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL+170+0.5 (+104)O4.5 (+108)LAD-210-0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL3.5 (+112/-140)1.5 (+105/-135)LAD4.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URobert Gasser4.5 (+113 / -140)15.5 (-110 / -111)Y. Yamamoto6.5 (-128 / +109)18.5 (+110 / -142)
Robert Gasser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
W4.29437233
W4.29437233Aug 1@
W5.07664211
W5.07664211Jul 25vs
W6.07745022
W6.07745022Jul 19vs
W5.08653011
W5.08653011Jul 12@
L3.05838077
L3.05838077Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@
W5.210763300
W5.210763300Aug 1vs
L8.09634133
L8.09634133Jul 25@
W6.010055311
W6.010055311Jul 19@
W9.010274022
W9.010274022Jul 11vs
L6.010365466
L6.010365466SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Robert Gasser
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD4.18.784.04.04.0(1)
at LAD—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 23vs
L4.18944444
L4.18944444Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL3.65.001.55.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 24@
W7.09237111
W7.09237111Jul 7@
L0.24104235
L0.24104235home starts7.03.866.34.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 1vs
L8.09634133
L8.09634133Jul 11vs
L6.010365466
L6.010365466Jul 4vs
W7.0100103200
W7.0100103200Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-2 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 3-2 in Robert Gasser's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 4.6 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 6.4 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-2 vs MIL this season (4 games).
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-3 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.6 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 3-2 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-2 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
72°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- MIL — Robert Gasser: recent opponents low-K: COL 17%, LAA 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: last start: 107 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: recent opponents low-K: BOS 16%, ARI 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Yamamoto's elite 2.60 xERA is fully baked into the -174 favorite and Milwaukee's cold 78 wRC+ vs RHP is reflected in the total, leaving no value.
COL @
SFG✓10:15 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
COL @
SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Kyle Freeland L
xERA3.15 (good)ERA3.38K%16.2 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs101BB%7.5
SFG vs LHP · last 6
wRC+-28 (poor)12+16K%36.2 (poor)HH%44.4 (above avg)Whiff%37.6
Landen Roupp R
xERA4.40 (avg)ERA6.59K%15.4 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%21.4 (elite)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs89BB%18.5
COL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+99 (avg)12+110K%18.8 (above avg)HH%38.2 (avg)Whiff%24.6
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.36 (avg)ERA 4.192d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 4.26 (avg)ERA 4.242d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+116+1.5 (-198)O7.5 (-110)SFG-124-1.5 (+164)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+106+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (+112)SFG-132-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (-111/-115)1.5 (-130/+100)SFG3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Freeland5.5 (+130 / -158)17.5 (-158 / +121)Landen Roupp5.5 (-108 / -110)17.5 (-120 / +101)
Kyle Freeland · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@
W4.110135313
W4.110135313Aug 2vs
W9.011585211
W9.011585211Jul 26@
L5.18726155
L5.18726155Jul 20vs
L6.09147244
L6.09147244Jul 11@
L6.09296044
L6.09296044Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
L5.18532511
L5.18532511Aug 2@
L4.29966455
L4.29966455Jul 28vs
L3.28414344
L3.28414344Jul 22@
L6.09174022
L6.09174022Jul 17@
W7.09722300
W7.09722300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Freeland
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG4.06.754.33.70.3(3)
at SFG6.05.006.05.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@
L6.09296044
L6.09296044Sep 27@
L6.08743133
L6.08743133Sep 2vs
L0.0802022
L0.0802022May 1@
W6.09157233
W6.09157233Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs COL—
home starts5.43.313.03.03.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
L5.18532511
L5.18532511Jul 28vs
L3.28414344
L3.28414344Jul 6vs
W8.010453211
W8.010453211Trends · COL
- COL are 5-5 vs SFG this season (10 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 2-3 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-4 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 4.6 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.8 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Freeland's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 5-5 vs COL this season (10 games).
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 3.4 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.8 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 4-0 to the over in Landen Roupp's last 4 starts.
- SFG are 2-0 to the over in Landen Roupp's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
60°F, Clear, Wind 13 mph WNW
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- SFG — Landen Roupp: BB% 18% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- COL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- COL — Kyle Freeland: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- COL — Kyle Freeland: 2026-07-26: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- COL — Kyle Freeland: recent opponents high-K: MIL 32%, KCR 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- SFG — Landen Roupp: recent opponents low-K: SDP 17%, DET 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
SFG Team Total u3.5 (+105)
San Francisco has been historically helpless against left-handed pitching, posting a -28 wRC+ over its last 6 and just 16 over its last 12 vs LHP with a 36.2 K% — both windows catastrophic. Freeland brings a 3.15 xERA over his last 3 into a pitcher-friendly park. Getting plus money on the under for a lineup that essentially cannot score against lefties, facing a solid one, is a clear mispricing.
Landen Roupp u5.5 Ks (-110)
Roupp has managed only 1, 6, and 3 strikeouts over his last 3 on a 15.4 K%, and his 18.5 BB% keeps him to short outings that cap his chances at whiffs. Colorado makes steady contact at an 18.8 K% over its last 6 vs RHP, so a 5.5 line sits more than two strikeouts above his recent average with little length to bridge the gap.