AI Picks · 7 Bets · Aug 13
DET Team Total o3.5 (-128)
Detroit's lineup carries a 159 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 12 and has hit Parker Messick both times they've faced him, tagging him for 4ER and 3R in five innings each meeting despite his elite 2.13 xERA over his last 3. Cleveland's bullpen has been a sieve at 5.83 ERA over its last 12, so anything Messick leaves behind gets amplified, and Detroit is averaging 5.8 runs at home in this pitcher's recent starts. The market is pricing Messick's shiny rate line and ignoring that this specific lineup has consistently reached him.
Found at 4:54 AM ET
Keider Montero u3.5 Ks (+134)
Montero owns an 11.0 K% over his last 3 and has punched out just 1, 2 and 5 for a 2.7 average, sitting well under this 3.5 line. Cleveland makes plenty of contact with an 18.1 K% vs RHP over their last 12, and Montero got only 1 strikeout across 5 innings the last time he saw them. Getting plus money on the under against a low-strikeout arm facing a contact lineup is a mispriced number.
Found at 4:54 AM ET
Braxton Ashcraft u5.5 Ks (+105)
Ashcraft has struck out exactly 5 in each of his last 3 starts, sitting right below this 5.5 line, and Miami makes reasonable contact with a 21.4 K% vs RHP over their last 12. At 5.3 IP/gs he rarely buys the extra inning needed for a sixth strikeout, and he fanned just 4 in 5 innings against this club earlier. Plus money on the under against a pitcher this consistently parked at 5 is the value.
Found at 4:54 AM ET
SEA Team Total u3.5 (-120)
Seattle carries a 60 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 68 over their last 12, an established, not streaky, offensive slump. They face Max Fried, who owns a 1.85 xERA over his last 3 and has smothered this exact lineup in two prior meetings (0.75 ERA, holding them to 1 ER and 0 ER across 6 IP each). The market's number lets a lineup this cold reach four runs against an ace who has already proven he shuts them down.
Found at 10:53 AM ET
Andrew Abbott u4.5 Ks (+106)
Abbott carries a 12.2 K% over his last 3 and has averaged just 3.0 Ks per start (4, 1, 4) even while facing high-strikeout lineups in PIT (31%) and ATH (33%). Today's White Sox lineup makes more contact than those, and his 14.9 BB% keeps at-bats going without producing whiffs. Pricing the under at plus money on an arm this incapable of missing bats is the mispricing.
Found at 10:53 AM ET
Max Scherzer u4.5 Ks (+130)
Scherzer has a 22.0 K% over his last 3 and has averaged only 4.3 Ks per start while working short outings (4.7 IP/gs), and his outs line sits at just 15.5. He draws a Boston lineup striking out a slate-low 15.9% over its last 6 vs LHP, an even tougher contact profile than the STL and PHI lineups he just faced. A short-outing, modest-whiff arm against the best contact team on the board should land under, and the under is priced as an underdog at +130.
Found at 10:53 AM ET
LAD Team Total o4.5 (+112)
The Dodgers own a 135 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 12 and draw Shane Drohan, who carries a 6.88 ERA and a 10.2 Barrel% over his last 3 while surrendering elite hard contact. Los Angeles is averaging 5.8 runs at home in recent starts and has scored in every home outing lately. Plus money on a top lineup against a lefty getting squared up is more value than the number implies.
Found at 4:54 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
CLE @ 
DET✓1:10 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
CLE @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Parker Messick L
xERA2.13 (elite)ERA1.89K%26.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%32.1 (good)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs94BB%2.7
DET vs LHP · last 6
wRC+164 (elite)12+149K%20.8 (avg)HH%38.2 (avg)Whiff%16.9
Keider Montero R
xERA4.01 (avg)ERA4.96K%11.0 (poor)
More Stats
HH%38.6 (avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs83BB%8.2
CLE vs RHP · last 6
wRC+116 (above avg)12+112K%16.1 (above avg)HH%33.6 (below avg)Whiff%16.5
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 4.77 (below avg)ERA 6.002d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 3.482d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-114-1.5 (+140)O8.0 (-110)DET+106+1.5 (-162)U8.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-135-0.5 (+104)O4.5 (+100)DET+110+0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE4.5 (+112/-140)1.5 (-166/+130)DET3.5 (-125/-102)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UParker Messick5.5 (+102 / -127)17.5 (-148 / +120)Keider Montero2.5 (-172 / +139)16.5 (+110 / -120)
Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7@ 
W7.09784122
W7.09784122Aug 1vs 
L4.19166112
L4.19166112Jul 26@ 
L7.29466011
L7.29466011Jul 21vs 
W5.28864012
W5.28864012Jul 10@ 
W6.09111411
W6.09111411Keider Montero · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7@ 
L6.08255355
L6.08255355Aug 2@ 
W6.08622200
W6.08622200Jul 27vs 
L4.18019146
L4.18019146Jul 22@ 
W5.18183011
W5.18183011Jul 17@ 
W3.1*4351000
W3.1*4351000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Parker Messick
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.05.406.55.02.0(2)
at DET5.03.606.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 19@ W5.08164323
W5.08164323Sep 25vs L5.08976144
L5.08976144Keider Montero
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.05.401.02.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 19vs L5.08512433
L5.08512433home starts4.18.781.09.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs L4.18019146
L4.18019146Trends · CLE
- CLE are 7-2 vs DET this season (9 games).
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Parker Messick's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 4.8 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Parker Messick's last 3 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-7 vs CLE this season (9 games).
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 3-2 in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET are 3-2 in Keider Montero's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 6.2 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET average 5.8 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 2-2 to the over in Keider Montero's last 4 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- CLE bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- DET bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE — Parker Messick: recent opponents low-K: TBR 18%, ARI 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- DET — Keider Montero: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-17, 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- DET — Keider Montero: 2026-07-27: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
DET Team Total o3.5 (-128)
Detroit's lineup carries a 159 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 12 and has hit Parker Messick both times they've faced him, tagging him for 4ER and 3R in five innings each meeting despite his elite 2.13 xERA over his last 3. Cleveland's bullpen has been a sieve at 5.83 ERA over its last 12, so anything Messick leaves behind gets amplified, and Detroit is averaging 5.8 runs at home in this pitcher's recent starts. The market is pricing Messick's shiny rate line and ignoring that this specific lineup has consistently reached him.
Keider Montero u3.5 Ks (+134)
Montero owns an 11.0 K% over his last 3 and has punched out just 1, 2 and 5 for a 2.7 average, sitting well under this 3.5 line. Cleveland makes plenty of contact with an 18.1 K% vs RHP over their last 12, and Montero got only 1 strikeout across 5 innings the last time he saw them. Getting plus money on the under against a low-strikeout arm facing a contact lineup is a mispriced number.
PIT @ MIA✓1:10 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
PIT @ MIA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Braxton Ashcraft R
xERA2.58 (elite)ERA5.06K%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.1 (good)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs81BB%6.2
MIA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+139 (elite)12+106K%21.2 (avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)Whiff%23.6
Tyler Phillips R
xERA5.28 (poor)ERA3.21K%20.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%55.8 (poor)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs67BB%5.1
PIT vs RHP · last 6
wRC+100 (avg)12+85K%20.0 (avg)HH%30.6 (below avg)Whiff%23.1
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 2.822d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 2.88 (elite)ERA 2.702d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-119-1.5 (+135)O8.0 (-110)MIA+112+1.5 (-152)U8.0 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-135-0.5 (-102)O4.5 (+100)MIA+116+0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT4.5 (+110/-135)1.5 (-160/+124)MIA3.5 (-113/-105)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBraxton Ashcraft5.5 (-121 / -102)17.5 (-107 / -110)Tyler Phillips3.5 (-140 / +119)14.5 (-124 / +104)
Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6@ 
L5.08254144
L5.08254144Aug 1@ 
W5.06952111
W5.06952111Jul 26vs W6.09357244
W6.09357244Jul 20@ 
L3.07429178
L3.07429178Jul 11vs W5.09865255
W5.09865255Tyler Phillips · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs L4.06145111
L4.06145111Aug 1@ 
W5.06536022
W5.06536022Jul 27vs 
W5.07653222
W5.07653222Jul 21@ 
L4.16825123
L4.16825123Jul 12vs L1.02612122
L1.02612122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Braxton Ashcraft
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.03.604.05.02.0(1)
at MIA—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 12vs L5.09045222
L5.09045222Tyler Phillips
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT—
home starts3.34.503.33.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs L4.06145111
L4.06145111Jul 27vs W5.07653222
W5.07653222Jul 12vs L1.02612122
L1.02612122Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-4 vs MIA this season (5 games).
- PIT are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 5.2 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 5.8 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 to the over in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-2 to the over in Braxton Ashcraft's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 4-1 vs PIT this season (5 games).
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA have won 4 straight.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 4.4 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 3.6 runs/game in Tyler Phillips's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-3 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-1 to the over in Tyler Phillips's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: 2026-08-06: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- PIT — Braxton Ashcraft: recent opponents high-K: CIN 33%, MIL 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- MIA — Tyler Phillips: last start: 61 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
Braxton Ashcraft u5.5 Ks (+105)
Ashcraft has struck out exactly 5 in each of his last 3 starts, sitting right below this 5.5 line, and Miami makes reasonable contact with a 21.4 K% vs RHP over their last 12. At 5.3 IP/gs he rarely buys the extra inning needed for a sixth strikeout, and he fanned just 4 in 5 innings against this club earlier. Plus money on the under against a pitcher this consistently parked at 5 is the value.
SEA @ NYY✓1:35 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly
SEA @ NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Logan Gilbert R
xERA3.34 (good)ERA3.72K%20.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%9.1
NYY vs RHP · last 6
wRC+99 (avg)12+92K%26.7 (below avg)HH%44.2 (above avg)Whiff%24.6
Max Fried L
xERA1.85 (elite)ERA2.45K%32.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%30.3 (good)Barrel%3.0 (elite)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs78BB%8.9
SEA vs LHP · last 6
wRC+60 (poor)12+68K%24.1 (below avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Whiff%23.4
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.34 (avg)ERA 8.152d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 3.75 (good)ERA 3.672d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+128+1.5 (-178)O7.5 (-115)NYY-137-1.5 (+147)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+135+0.5 (-125)O3.5 (-140)NYY-156-0.5 (-104)U3.5 (+108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-104/-120)1.5 (+100/-130)NYY3.5 (-145/+114)1.5 (-166/+130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Gilbert6.5 (-146 / +117)17.5 (-166 / +130)Max Fried5.5 (-138 / +114)17.5 (-166 / +126)
Logan Gilbert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs L6.29564422
L6.29564422Aug 1vs W7.09665133
W7.09665133Jul 26@ 
W5.29345233
W5.29345233Jul 19vs W6.095104133
W6.095104133Jul 11@ L6.29659244
L6.29659244Max Fried · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs 
W6.19073200
W6.19073200Aug 1@ L5.17872111
L5.17872111Jul 27@ W3.06645233
W3.06645233Jul 22vs W5.05771100
W5.05771100May 13@ L3.06125133
L3.06125133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Gilbert
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY5.17.945.56.52.5(2)
at NYY5.17.065.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 31vs L5.19567355
L5.19567355Jul 8@ L5.18856245
L5.18856245Max Fried
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA6.00.755.53.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 31@ W7.09063100
W7.09063100May 13@ L5.09154211
L5.09154211home starts5.41.676.73.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs W6.19073200
W6.19073200Jul 22vs W5.05771100
W5.05771100May 3vs W5.110766333
W5.110766333Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-4 vs NYY this season (5 games).
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA have lost 6 straight.
- SEA are 3-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 3-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 3.6 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 5.0 runs/game in Logan Gilbert's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 2-3 to the over in Logan Gilbert's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-1 to the over in Logan Gilbert's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 4-1 vs SEA this season (5 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Max Fried's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Max Fried's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Max Fried's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 4.0 runs/game in Max Fried's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-2 to the over in Max Fried's last 4 starts.
- NYY are 0-2 to the over in Max Fried's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph WNW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 1
- NYY — Max Fried: 2026-07-27: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SEA Team Total u3.5 (-120)
Seattle carries a 60 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 68 over their last 12, an established, not streaky, offensive slump. They face Max Fried, who owns a 1.85 xERA over his last 3 and has smothered this exact lineup in two prior meetings (0.75 ERA, holding them to 1 ER and 0 ER across 6 IP each). The market's number lets a lineup this cold reach four runs against an ace who has already proven he shuts them down.
CIN @ CHW✓2:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
CIN @ CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Andrew Abbott L
xERA4.92 (below avg)ERA4.08K%12.2 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs95BB%14.9
CHW vs LHP · last 6
wRC+136 (elite)12+104K%24.8 (below avg)HH%41.5 (above avg)Whiff%24.3
Davis Martin R
xERA7.07 (poor)ERA10.50K%14.3 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%9.5 (avg)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs73BB%8.9
CIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+77 (poor)12+103K%32.9 (poor)HH%38.7 (avg)Whiff%30.4
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 2.18 (elite)ERA 4.172d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 3.12 (good)ERA 2.552d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+120+1.5 (-184)O8.5 (-105)CHW-123-1.5 (+161)U8.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+108+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-113)CHW-130-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-122/+114)2.5 (+130/-166)CHW4.5 (+114/-135)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Abbott4.5 (-133 / +106)15.5 (-113 / -114)Davis Martin4.5 (-124 / +100)15.5 (+124 / +110)
Andrew Abbott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs W6.28847233
W6.28847233Aug 1vs L5.09813533
L5.09813533Jul 26@ 
W6.010043422
W6.010043422Jul 20@ L6.010064201
L6.010064201Jul 12vs L4.07934344
L4.07934344Davis Martin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W1.02312112
W1.02312112Aug 4@ 
L5.091110299
L5.091110299Jul 29vs W6.010665244
W6.010665244Jul 24vs L5.08836044
L5.08836044Jul 18@ 
L5.28554211
L5.28554211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Abbott
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.01.507.04.00.0(1)
at CHW—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 13vs L6.09674011
L6.09674011Davis Martin
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN6.21.455.07.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 14@ W6.29557011
W6.29557011home starts4.06.753.34.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W1.02312112
W1.02312112Jul 29vs W6.010665244
W6.010665244Jul 24vs L5.08836044
L5.08836044Trends · CIN
- CIN are 1-1 vs CHW this season (2 games).
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-2 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 3.2 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.6 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-1 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 1-1 vs CIN this season (2 games).
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 3-2 in Davis Martin's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 3.6 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 3.6 runs/game in Davis Martin's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 3-2 to the over in Davis Martin's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 2-1 to the over in Davis Martin's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph E
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- CIN — Andrew Abbott: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- CIN bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CIN — Andrew Abbott: recent opponents high-K: PIT 31%, ATH 33% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- CHW — Davis Martin: last start: 23 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CHW — Davis Martin: recent opponents low-K: BOS 16%, CLE 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
Andrew Abbott u4.5 Ks (+106)
Abbott carries a 12.2 K% over his last 3 and has averaged just 3.0 Ks per start (4, 1, 4) even while facing high-strikeout lineups in PIT (31%) and ATH (33%). Today's White Sox lineup makes more contact than those, and his 14.9 BB% keeps at-bats going without producing whiffs. Pricing the under at plus money on an arm this incapable of missing bats is the mispricing.
BOS @ TOR✓3:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
BOS @ TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Payton Tolle L
xERA2.12 (elite)ERA2.60K%41.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.2 (below avg)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%4.4
TOR vs LHP · last 6
wRC+64 (poor)12+60K%22.7 (avg)HH%16.7 (poor)Whiff%25.1
Max Scherzer R
xERA3.75 (avg)ERA2.57K%22.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs81BB%6.8
BOS vs RHP · last 6
wRC+118 (above avg)12+144K%15.9 (elite)HH%34.1 (below avg)Whiff%22.0
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 2.34 (elite)ERA 2.922d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 3.082d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-153-1.5 (+105)O8.0 (-109)TOR+142+1.5 (-125)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-188-0.5 (-122)O4.5 (+108)TOR+148+0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (-102/-120)2.5 (+105/-135)TOR3.5 (+112/-130)1.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPayton Tolle5.5 (-111 / -103)17.5 (-104 / -125)Max Scherzer4.5 (+134 / +130)15.5 (+125 / +122)
Payton Tolle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs W6.084142011
W6.084142011Aug 1@ 
W6.08879222
W6.08879222Jul 27@ W5.19075122
W5.19075122Jul 20vs W5.28898144
W5.28898144Jul 12@ W3.26673111
W3.26673111Max Scherzer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ W5.18445022
W5.18445022Aug 2vs L6.08454111
L6.08454111Jul 27@ 
W2.27544311
W2.27544311Jun 10vs L3.18245355
L3.18245355Apr 24vs L2.18206377
L2.18206377SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Payton Tolle
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR4.65.875.03.53.0(2)
at TOR4.26.434.03.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 16vs L5.09064233
L5.09064233Apr 28@ L4.26843433
L4.26843433Max Scherzer
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS5.07.205.010.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24vs L5.086510044
L5.086510044home starts3.710.453.05.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L6.08454111
L6.08454111Jun 10vs L3.18245355
L3.18245355Apr 24vs L2.18206377
L2.18206377Trends · BOS
- BOS are 3-9 vs TOR this season (12 games).
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS have lost 5 straight.
- BOS are 5-0 in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 4-1 in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 5.8 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 3.8 runs/game in Payton Tolle's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 to the over in Payton Tolle's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 0-3 to the over in Payton Tolle's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 9-3 vs BOS this season (12 games).
- TOR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 2-3 in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 0-5 in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
- TOR average 4.2 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.0 runs/game in Max Scherzer's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 1-2 to the over in Max Scherzer's last 3 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- BOS bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TOR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Payton Tolle: recent opponents high-K: ATH 33%, ATH 33% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TOR — Max Scherzer: recent opponents low-K: STL 19%, PHI 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
Max Scherzer u4.5 Ks (+130)
Scherzer has a 22.0 K% over his last 3 and has averaged only 4.3 Ks per start while working short outings (4.7 IP/gs), and his outs line sits at just 15.5. He draws a Boston lineup striking out a slate-low 15.9% over its last 6 vs LHP, an even tougher contact profile than the STL and PHI lineups he just faced. A short-outing, modest-whiff arm against the best contact team on the board should land under, and the under is priced as an underdog at +130.
CHC @ WSN4:05 PM · Nationals ParkHot
CHC @ WSNMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Kevin Gausman R
xERA2.59 (elite)ERA2.89K%18.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%1.7 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs96BB%4.0
WSN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+119 (above avg)12+106K%23.2 (avg)HH%44.8 (above avg)Whiff%27.1
Cade Cavalli R
xERA4.69 (below avg)ERA3.50K%18.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%12.7 (below avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs96BB%6.8
CHC vs RHP · last 6
wRC+127 (above avg)12+112K%20.4 (avg)HH%36.2 (avg)Whiff%15.9
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 3.84 (avg)ERA 3.152d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
WSN
xERA 4.81 (below avg)ERA 3.672d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-142-1.5 (+115)O8.5 (-115)WSN+136+1.5 (-134)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-128-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-106)WSN+105+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC4.5 (-115/-105)2.5 (+114/-145)WSN3.5 (-122/-104)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKevin Gausman4.5 (-154 / +124)17.5 (-150 / +124)Cade Cavalli5.5 (+118 / -140)15.5 (-125 / +101)
Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7@ 
W7.09644122
W7.09644122Aug 1vs W5.29449111
W5.29449111Jul 26@ L6.09865133
L6.09865133Jul 21vs L3.19019245
L3.19019245Jul 12@ 
L6.010384333
L6.010384333Cade Cavalli · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs W6.010087233
W6.010087233Aug 2@ L6.09036123
L6.09036123Jul 28vs W6.09836223
W6.09836223Jul 22@ 
W6.09084200
W6.09084200Jul 17@ W6.09594022
W6.09594022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cade Cavalli
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC3.25.625.03.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 26@ W3.27553323
W3.27553323home starts6.03.505.35.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs W6.010087233
W6.010087233Jul 28vs W6.09836223
W6.09836223Jul 12vs L6.08554122
L6.08554122Trends · CHC
- CHC are 3-2 vs WSN this season (5 games).
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 2-0 in Kevin Gausman's last 2 starts.
- CHC are 1-0 in Kevin Gausman's last 1 away starts.
- CHC average 11.0 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 2 starts.
- CHC average 6.0 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-3 vs CHC this season (5 games).
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 4-1 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-3 in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
- WSN average 9.2 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 5.2 runs/game in Cade Cavalli's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Cade Cavalli's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 to the over in Cade Cavalli's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
93°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph W
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CHC bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WSN bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC — Kevin Gausman: recent opponents low-K: BOS 16%, STL 19%, KCR 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WSN — Cade Cavalli: recent opponents high-K: ATL 28%, CIN 33% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Both lineups hit well vs RHP over their recent windows and both prices sit close to fair, leaving no clear edge on the total or either side.
PHI @ MIN7:30 PM · Field of Dreams · NEUTRAL SITE
PHI @ MINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Aaron Nola R
xERA3.58 (good)ERA3.24K%24.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs96BB%10.1
MIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+91 (below avg)12+91K%19.9 (above avg)HH%34.6 (below avg)Whiff%25.7
Taj Bradley R
xERA3.31 (good)ERA4.24K%25.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%52.2 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs98BB%12.0
PHI vs RHP · last 6
wRC+83 (below avg)12+107K%17.7 (above avg)HH%36.8 (avg)Whiff%19.1
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.35 (good)ERA 4.472d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 3.492d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-103-1.5 (+155)O8.5 (-110)MIN-104+1.5 (-185)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI+100+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-118)MIN-120-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (+118/-135)1.5 (-166/+130)MIN4.5 (+114/+112)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAaron Nola5.5 (+126 / -161)16.5 (-112 / -115)Taj Bradley5.5 (-128 / +111)17.5 (-122 / +100)
Aaron Nola · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs L5.09786222
L5.09786222Aug 3vs W6.09756233
W6.09756233Jul 28@ L5.29345311
L5.29345311Jul 22vs L5.18547155
L5.18547155Jul 16vs L6.09766433
L6.09766433Taj Bradley · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ L5.09775233
L5.09775233Aug 2@ L6.09427433
L6.09427433Jul 28vs W6.0102103322
W6.0102103322Jul 23@ W7.010952311
W7.010952311Jul 18@ L5.09467355
L5.09467355SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Aaron Nola
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN8.01.129.02.00.0(1)
at MIN—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26vs W8.09092011
W8.09092011Taj Bradley
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI—
home starts6.72.258.74.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs W6.0102103322
W6.0102103322Jul 12vs W7.09966222
W7.09966222Jul 7vs W7.0101103011
W7.0101103011Trends · PHI
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 1-4 in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-3 in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 3.4 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 3.6 runs/game in Aaron Nola's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-2 to the over in Aaron Nola's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 2-3 in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 5-0 in Taj Bradley's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 3.4 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 4.8 runs/game in Taj Bradley's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 1-4 to the over in Taj Bradley's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 0-3 to the over in Taj Bradley's last 3 home starts.
Weather
69°F, Wind 11 mph NE
Flags · 6
- PHI — Aaron Nola: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIN — Taj Bradley: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PHI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIN — Taj Bradley: low-K outing 2026-08-02 (2 Ks vs avg 6.3) — stuff was flat that day
- WEATHER: rain chance 43% — monitor for delays
- NEUTRAL SITE: played at Field of Dreams (Dyersville) — not MIN's home park. Park factor and any home-park assumption do not apply here.
AI Analysis
A neutral-site pick'em between two below-average recent offenses with a 43% rain chance offers no clean angle and threatens pitcher props with delays.
TEX @ LAA10:07 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
TEX @ LAAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Jacob deGrom R
xERA3.77 (avg)ERA4.73K%25.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%47.5 (poor)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs90BB%9.7
LAA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+59 (poor)12+50K%28.5 (poor)HH%34.1 (below avg)Whiff%24.1
Walbert Urena R
xERA3.64 (good)ERA3.14K%24.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.3 (good)Barrel%2.9 (elite)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs77BB%13.8
TEX vs RHP · last 6
wRC+49 (poor)12+69K%24.1 (below avg)HH%36.0 (avg)Whiff%24.3
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 4.00 (avg)ERA 4.572d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.21 (good)ERA 3.932d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-148-1.5 (+112)O7.5 (-105)LAA+138+1.5 (-131)U7.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-160-0.5 (-110)O3.5 (-146)LAA+128+0.5 (-118)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX4.5 (+114/-140)1.5 (-154/+120)LAA3.5 (+118/-145)1.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJacob deGrom6.5 (-120 / +101)17.5 (-108 / -114)Walbert Urena4.5 (-142 / +119)15.5 (+105 / -131)
Jacob deGrom · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W5.08893111
W5.08893111Aug 1@ L3.19137555
L3.19137555Jul 26vs L5.09047011
L5.09047011Jul 20vs L4.29767255
L4.29767255Jul 7vs W5.08075222
W5.08075222Walbert Urena · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ L2.15024344
L2.15024344Aug 2vs W6.09073300
W6.09073300Jul 27vs L6.09152211
L6.09152211Jul 21vs W6.09856111
W6.09856111Jul 8@ W4.09031500
W4.09031500SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jacob deGrom
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA4.36.925.74.72.3(3)
at LAA4.49.625.36.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 7vs W5.08075222
W5.08075222May 22@ L3.06536366
L3.06536366Aug 25vs L5.09073222
L5.09073222Jul 28@ L5.19187155
L5.19187155Jul 7@ L5.09555233
L5.09555233Walbert Urena
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX4.51.004.53.04.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8@ W4.09031500
W4.09031500May 23vs W5.09365311
W5.09365311home starts6.01.005.73.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W6.09073300
W6.09073300Jul 27vs L6.09152211
L6.09152211Jul 21vs W6.09856111
W6.09856111Trends · TEX
- TEX are 3-6 vs LAA this season (9 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in Jacob deGrom's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 4.8 runs/game in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.0 runs/game in Jacob deGrom's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 4-1 to the over in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-1 to the over in Jacob deGrom's last 2 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 6-3 vs TEX this season (9 games).
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 3-2 in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 3-2 in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in Walbert Urena's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 3-2 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-2 to the over in Walbert Urena's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- TEX — Jacob deGrom: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- LAA — Walbert Urena: BB% 14% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- TEX bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TEX — Jacob deGrom: 2026-08-01: 5 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAA — Walbert Urena: last start: 50 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- LAA — Walbert Urena: 2026-08-08: 4 ER in 2.1 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Two of the worst offenses on the board (49 and 59 wRC+ vs RHP) meet with a low total already posted, so the market has already accounted for the weak run environment.
MIL @ LAD✓10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
MIL @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Shane Drohan L
xERA4.00 (avg)ERA6.88K%23.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.8 (avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs91BB%9.6
LAD vs LHP · last 6
wRC+129 (above avg)12+141K%20.0 (avg)HH%38.5 (avg)Whiff%22.5
Roki Sasaki R
xERA2.34 (elite)ERA2.45K%29.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.1 (good)Barrel%2.2 (elite)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs90BB%8.3
MIL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+83 (below avg)12+82K%25.2 (below avg)HH%43.3 (above avg)Whiff%22.2
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.36 (elite)ERA 2.142d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 4.402d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+131+1.5 (-175)O8.5 (-105)LAD-138-1.5 (+146)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL+118+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-115)LAD-145-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL3.5 (-118/+100)1.5 (-140/+110)LAD4.5 (+114/-130)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane Drohan4.5 (+100 / -120)17.5 (+103 / -110)Roki Sasaki5.5 (-132 / +105)16.5 (+105 / -135)
Shane Drohan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs L5.09449466
L5.09449466Jul 31@ W6.08674122
W6.08674122Jul 24vs L6.09266255
L6.09266255Jul 18vs W6.09095133
W6.09095133Jul 11@ L6.18365033
L6.18365033Roki Sasaki · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7@ L6.08654122
L6.08654122Jul 30vs W5.19075322
W5.19075322Jul 24@ W7.09493211
W7.09493211Jul 17@ W5.29455101
W5.29455101Jul 8vs W6.07854133
W6.07854133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Roki Sasaki
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.03.604.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 23@ W5.08744223
W5.08744223home starts4.77.025.05.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30vs W5.19075322
W5.19075322Jul 8vs W6.07854133
W6.07854133Jul 2vs W3.08837266
W3.08837266Trends · MIL
- MIL are 1-2 vs LAD this season (3 games).
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 2-3 in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in Shane Drohan's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 6.0 runs/game in Shane Drohan's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 to the over in Shane Drohan's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in Shane Drohan's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-1 vs MIL this season (3 games).
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 5-0 in Roki Sasaki's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 3.8 runs/game in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 5.8 runs/game in Roki Sasaki's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 0-5 to the over in Roki Sasaki's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-2 to the over in Roki Sasaki's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
71°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- LAD bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIL — Shane Drohan: recent opponents low-K: COL 17%, LAA 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
LAD Team Total o4.5 (+112)
The Dodgers own a 135 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 12 and draw Shane Drohan, who carries a 6.88 ERA and a 10.2 Barrel% over his last 3 while surrendering elite hard contact. Los Angeles is averaging 5.8 runs at home in recent starts and has scored in every home outing lately. Plus money on a top lineup against a lefty getting squared up is more value than the number implies.