AI Picks · 10 Bets · Aug 17
DET ML (-118)
Mlodzinski has been unusable over his last 3 with a 7.43 xERA, a 55% hard-hit rate, and outings of 3.0 and 2.1 innings, while Valdez brings a serviceable 4.44 xERA and goes deep at 6.6 IP per start, and dominated Pittsburgh for 11 strikeouts in his lone meeting. Detroit's bat is cold at 71 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 but that sits against 108 over its last 12, a slump inside a real lineup facing the worst starter on the slate. A price barely better than a coin flip badly underrates this pitching mismatch.
Found at 4:11 AM ET
DET Team Total o4.5 (+114)
Detroit's bats sit at 118 wRC+ over their last 6 and a matching 115 over their last 12 vs RHP, an established above-average offense, and they face Mlodzinski's 7.43 xERA, 54.8% hard-hit rate and 4.2 IP/gs over his last 3 — he lasted just 2.1 innings his last time out. Getting plus money on a settled good lineup against one of the worst arms on the board is a price that undersells how early and often Detroit gets to the runs here.
Found at 6:57 PM ET
ARI F5 ML (+122)
Bratt owns a 2.49 xERA over his last 3 facing a Boston lineup at -14 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 (55 over its last 12), a bat that has produced 1.6 runs per game and gone 0-5 in its starter's last five outings. Bello is making his first start in 74 days with two relief outings mixed in and is unlikely to be fully stretched, while Arizona carries an established 127 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (121 over its last 12) into the matchup. Taking the first five removes Arizona's weaker bullpen from the equation, and getting plus money on the better lineup against a rusty arm is the value the ML doesn't offer.
Found at 4:11 AM ET
Mitch Bratt o3.5 Ks (-138)
Boston is whiffing at a 32.1% clip over their last 6 vs LHP while sitting at just 21 wRC+, and Bratt brings a 22.7% K rate over his last 3 who has gone 5, 7 and 6 innings in those starts. His recent modest strikeout totals came against low-K Cleveland and Colorado lineups, so they understate what he does against a far more strikeout-prone Boston order — 3.5 is a low bar against this contact profile.
Found at 6:57 PM ET
Bailey Ober u3.5 Ks (-120)
Ober owns a 9.6% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts and has totaled just 3, 0 and 4 punchouts in those outings, averaging 2.3 per start. Even with a deep outs line of 17.5 giving him the innings, a barely-there whiff rate against an Atlanta lineup that makes plenty of contact leaves 3.5 as an ask above his current level.
Found at 10:20 AM ET
CHW Team Total o3.5 (-104)
Chicago's White Sox are crushing left-handers, posting a 193 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 152 over their last 12, so even the regressed read is elite. Imanaga brings a 4.71 xERA and a 14.3% barrel rate over his last 3 into that buzzsaw, and this same lineup tagged him for 12 hits and 7 earned in 3 innings the last time they met. A team total of 3.5 at even money undervalues one of the best platoon matchups on the board.
Found at 10:20 AM ET
Tomoyuki Sugano u3.5 Ks (+122)
Sugano misses few bats at a 14.5% strikeout rate over his last 3, posting just 2 and 3 Ks in two of those outings, and the Dodgers have hammered him for an 8.84 ERA across three meetings while he averaged only 2.3 strikeouts and 3.7 innings against them. A contact-oriented Los Angeles lineup that squares him up tends to chase him early, shortening his outing and his whiff chances, so plus money on the under is the value.
Found at 4:11 AM ET
Blake Snell o6.5 Ks (-145)
Snell carries a dominant 37.5% strikeout rate over his last 3 and struck out 11 Rockies in his one prior meeting with them. Colorado has slumped to 29 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and its 21.2% strikeout rate offers no protection against that kind of swing-and-miss, and his outs line of 17.5 gives him the innings to clear the number. The market is shading toward his limited recent workload, but the whiff profile against this lineup carries the over.
Found at 4:11 AM ET
Line Warning: 6.5 Ks is -145; 7+ Ks is also live here at +115 or better.
Games In Progress / Completed
BAL @ TBR o8.0 (-102)
Tampa Bay carries an elite, established 158 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (146 over its last 12) with a tiny 9.9% strikeout rate against Brandon Young's average 4.11 xERA over his last 3, while Baltimore brings 124 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 (117 over its last 12) against McClanahan, who owns a 46% hard-hit rate and 13% walk rate over his last 3 and is coming off an 18-day layoff and a 49-pitch outing. Neither bullpen offers relief — Baltimore's relievers sit at a 5.66 ERA over their last 12. With two strong lineups, two vulnerable starters, and a starter who isn't stretched out, a number of only 8.0 is too low for this run environment.
Found at 4:11 AM ET
Brandon Young u3.5 Ks (+102)
Tampa Bay strikes out just 9.9% of the time vs RHP over its last 6, the lowest-contact profile on the board, and Young is only a modest strikeout arm at an 18.1% rate over his last 3. His recent K totals of 5, 4, and 4 came against far more strikeout-prone lineups than this one, so those numbers overstate what he'll get here. A team that puts nearly everything in play caps his whiff output well below the posted number, and plus money on the under is the mispricing.
Found at 4:11 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
STL @ 
CIN1:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkRainy
STL @ CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Quinn Mathews L
xERA3.30 (good)ERA3.60K%12.5 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%22.2 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs96BB%12.5
CIN vs LHP · last 6
wRC+112 (avg)12+25K%30.0 (poor)HH%16.7 (poor)Whiff%13.3
Kent Emanuel L
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
STL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+152 (elite)12+133K%19.7 (above avg)HH%34.8 (below avg)Whiff%22.3
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.65 (below avg)ERA 3.432d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 2.97 (elite)ERA 6.052d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-1100—O3.5 (+580)CIN+900—U3.5 (-900)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-120-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-144)CIN+100+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL4.5 (-122/-104)2.5 (-105/-125)CIN4.5 (+108/-130)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UQuinn Mathews4.5 (-105 / +100)13.5 (-110 / -101)Kent Emanuel——
Quinn Mathews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ W4.09572311
W4.09572311Aug 1@ 
L5.09736322
L5.09736322Kent Emanuel · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L5.09645322
L5.09645322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Quinn Mathews
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.02.257.02.03.0(1)
at CIN4.02.257.02.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ W4.09572311
W4.09572311Kent Emanuel
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.03.604.05.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L5.09645322
L5.09645322home starts5.03.604.05.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L5.09645322
L5.09645322Trends · STL
- STL are 6-5 vs CIN this season (11 games).
- STL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 0-2 in Quinn Mathews's last 2 starts.
- STL are 0-2 in Quinn Mathews's last 2 away starts.
- STL average 0.5 runs/game in Quinn Mathews's last 2 starts.
- STL average 0.5 runs/game in Quinn Mathews's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 5-6 vs STL this season (11 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 0-1 in Kent Emanuel's last 1 starts.
- CIN are 0-1 in Kent Emanuel's last 1 home starts.
- CIN average 0.0 runs/game in Kent Emanuel's last 1 starts.
- CIN average 0.0 runs/game in Kent Emanuel's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Rainy
78°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph NW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly · Rain possible (34%)
Flags · 5
- STL — Quinn Mathews: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- STL — Quinn Mathews: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- CIN — Kent Emanuel: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- STL — Quinn Mathews: 16 days since last start (2026-08-01) — may not be fully stretched out
- WEATHER: rain risk 34% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
BAL @ 
TBR✓6:05 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
BAL @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Brandon Young R
xERA4.11 (avg)ERA4.50K%18.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.0 (avg)Barrel%6.0 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs85BB%9.7
TBR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+158 (elite)12+141K%11.6 (elite)HH%35.1 (avg)Whiff%14.7
Shane McClanahan L
xERA4.30 (avg)ERA4.15K%16.4 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%46.0 (poor)Barrel%8.1 (avg)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs54BB%12.7
BAL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+152 (elite)12+145K%26.1 (below avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)Whiff%24.2
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 3.47 (good)ERA 4.352d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 4.46 (avg)ERA 5.072d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+148+1.5 (-158)O7.5 (-115)TBR-158-1.5 (+135)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL+132+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-102)TBR-166-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (-130/+100)TBR4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Young3.5 (-145 / +115)17.5 (+100 / -114)Shane McClanahan4.5 (-106 / -111)—
Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ L3.05423111
L3.05423111Aug 11@ 
W6.010446312
W6.010446312Aug 6vs 
L4.19846233
L4.19846233Jul 31vs 
W5.29455244
W5.29455244Jul 25vs 
W6.19464211
W6.19464211Shane McClanahan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L3.04322011
L3.04322011Jul 30vs 
W3.04930211
W3.04930211Jul 24vs 
W5.07132211
W5.07132211Jul 19@ 
L5.08735356
L5.08735356Jul 8vs 
W6.18554000
W6.18554000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Young
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR3.03.002.03.01.0(1)
at TBR3.03.002.03.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ L3.05423111
L3.05423111Shane McClanahan
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL4.43.443.73.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L3.04322011
L3.04322011May 25@ L5.18433200
L5.18433200May 18vs W5.09066244
W5.09066244home starts3.72.452.71.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L3.04322011
L3.04322011Jul 30vs W3.04930211
W3.04930211Jul 24vs W5.07132211
W5.07132211Trends · BAL
- BAL are 6-3 vs TBR this season (9 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 4.0 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 6.2 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 0-5 to the over in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-2 to the over in Brandon Young's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 3-6 vs BAL this season (9 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 4-1 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Shane McClanahan's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 4.4 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.4 runs/game in Shane McClanahan's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 1-3 to the over in Shane McClanahan's last 4 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Shane McClanahan's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 8
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- BAL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BAL — Brandon Young: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: 18 days since last start (2026-07-30) — may not be fully stretched out
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: last start: 49 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TBR — Shane McClanahan: 2026-07-19: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
BAL @ TBR o8.0 (-102)
Tampa Bay carries an elite, established 158 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (146 over its last 12) with a tiny 9.9% strikeout rate against Brandon Young's average 4.11 xERA over his last 3, while Baltimore brings 124 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 (117 over its last 12) against McClanahan, who owns a 46% hard-hit rate and 13% walk rate over his last 3 and is coming off an 18-day layoff and a 49-pitch outing. Neither bullpen offers relief — Baltimore's relievers sit at a 5.66 ERA over their last 12. With two strong lineups, two vulnerable starters, and a starter who isn't stretched out, a number of only 8.0 is too low for this run environment.
Brandon Young u3.5 Ks (+102)
Tampa Bay strikes out just 9.9% of the time vs RHP over its last 6, the lowest-contact profile on the board, and Young is only a modest strikeout arm at an 18.1% rate over his last 3. His recent K totals of 5, 4, and 4 came against far more strikeout-prone lineups than this one, so those numbers overstate what he'll get here. A team that puts nearly everything in play caps his whiff output well below the posted number, and plus money on the under is the mispricing.
STL @ CIN6:40 PM · Great American Ball Park
STL @ CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Andre Pallante R
xERA4.74 (below avg)ERA1.53K%12.9 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%3.8 (elite)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs70BB%11.4
CIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+59 (poor)12+78K%24.3 (below avg)HH%41.5 (above avg)Whiff%27.4
Rhett Lowder R
xERA3.36 (good)ERA3.12K%17.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%29.1 (elite)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs68BB%4.3
STL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+89 (below avg)12+116K%22.0 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)Whiff%22.6
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.65 (below avg)ERA 3.432d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 2.97 (elite)ERA 6.052d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-118-1.5 (+130)O9.0 (-112)CIN+110+1.5 (-150)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-120-0.5 (+104)O4.5 (-140)CIN+106+0.5 (-135)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL4.5 (-115/-110)2.5 (-105/-125)CIN4.5 (+114/-140)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UAndre Pallante4.5 (-102 / -116)Rhett Lowder4.5 (+122 / -154)
Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ L0.0902000
L0.0902000Aug 11vs W6.09724300
W6.09724300Aug 5@ W5.110343311
W5.110343311Jul 30vs 
L6.19037222
L6.19037222Jul 25vs W7.09082100
W7.09082100Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L1.01401100
L1.01401100Aug 12@ 
L5.19447122
L5.19447122Aug 5vs 
W6.09534222
W6.09534222Jul 30vs 
W6.09055022
W6.09055022Jul 24@ W5.07641222
W5.07641222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN4.30.693.72.00.7(3)
at CIN3.72.453.03.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ L0.0902000
L0.0902000Jul 25vs W7.09082100
W7.09082100May 23@ W6.09332111
W6.09332111Aug 31@ L5.09566425
L5.09566425Rhett Lowder
IPERAKHBB
vs STL3.02.002.71.02.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L1.01401100
L1.01401100Jul 24@ W5.07641222
W5.07641222Jun 7@ L3.07041500
L3.07041500home starts4.32.772.73.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L1.01401100
L1.01401100Aug 5vs W6.09534222
W6.09534222Jul 30vs W6.09055022
W6.09055022Trends · STL
- STL are 6-5 vs CIN this season (11 games).
- STL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 4-1 in Andre Pallante's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 4.2 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL average 8.8 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-1 to the over in Andre Pallante's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 5-6 vs STL this season (11 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-2 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 2.6 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 3.2 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 1-4 to the over in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-2 to the over in Rhett Lowder's last 3 home starts.
Weather
79°F, Wind 5 mph NW
Flags · 2
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WEATHER: rain chance 34% — monitor for delays
MIA @ PHI6:40 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
MIA @ PHIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Janson Junk R
xERA4.20 (avg)ERA1.93K%12.3 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs45BB%7.0
PHI vs RHP · last 6
wRC+113 (avg)12+115K%19.6 (above avg)HH%38.3 (avg)Whiff%19.0
C. Sanchez L
xERA2.74 (elite)ERA1.06K%35.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%2.8 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs66BB%10.3
MIA vs LHP · last 6
wRC+78 (poor)12+87K%16.1 (above avg)HH%35.0 (avg)Whiff%19.6
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.36 (good)ERA 4.382d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.18 (good)ERA 4.342d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+228+1.5 (+100)O8.5 (-102)PHI-245-1.5 (-115)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+215+1.5 (-138)O4.5 (-110)PHI-270-1.5 (+106)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA3.5 (+120/+112)1.5 (+105/-135)PHI4.5 (-132/+105)2.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJanson Junk3.5 (+137 / -170)14.5 (-182 / +142)C. Sanchez6.5 (-136 / +107)18.5 (+110 / -139)
Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ L0.2710000
L0.2710000Aug 12vs W6.08124112
W6.08124112Aug 6@ L3.04715122
L3.04715122Jul 31@ 
W5.07943201
W5.07943201Jul 26vs 
L4.27567011
L4.27567011C. Sanchez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L1.01010000
L1.01010000Aug 11@ L6.08974000
L6.08974000Aug 6vs 
W5.09866222
W5.09866222Aug 1@ W6.099112500
W6.099112500Jul 26vs W6.010166333
W6.010166333SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Janson Junk
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI3.21.893.73.30.0(3)
at PHI2.22.052.52.50.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17@ L0.2710000
L0.2710000May 4vs L5.19265011
L5.19265011Sep 25@ L4.26145011
L4.26145011C. Sanchez
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.00.604.03.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L1.01010000
L1.01010000Sep 23vs L7.09163100
L7.09163100Sep 5@ W7.08256111
W7.08256111home starts4.03.754.34.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 17vs L1.01010000
L1.01010000Aug 6vs W5.09866222
W5.09866222Jul 26vs W6.010166333
W6.010166333Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-5 vs PHI this season (10 games).
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 4.8 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.6 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 4-1 to the over in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-0 to the over in Janson Junk's last 2 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 5-5 vs MIA this season (10 games).
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 4-1 in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 5-0 in C. Sanchez's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 6.6 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 10.2 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 2-3 to the over in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 2-0 to the over in C. Sanchez's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
86°F, Clear, Wind 2 mph NW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- MIA bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PHI bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PHI — C. Sanchez: recent opponents high-K: BAL 26%, WSN 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
DET @ PIT✓7:05 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
DET @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Framber Valdez L
xERA4.44 (avg)ERA2.75K%16.7 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%46.7 (poor)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs98BB%10.7
PIT vs LHP · last 6
wRC+140 (elite)12+105K%22.8 (avg)HH%43.5 (above avg)Whiff%23.0
C. Mlodzinski R
xERA7.43 (poor)ERA9.72K%14.3 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%54.8 (poor)Barrel%9.7 (avg)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs56BB%11.9
DET vs RHP · last 6
wRC+118 (above avg)12+115K%19.2 (above avg)HH%32.2 (below avg)Whiff%20.2
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 3.322d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 2.87 (elite)ERA 3.592d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-102-1.5 (+152)O8.5 (-105)PIT-103+1.5 (-179)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-115-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-122)PIT-104+0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UDET4.5 (+114/-135)1.5 (-160/+124)PIT3.5 (-142/+114)1.5 (-166/+130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFramber Valdez5.5 (+121 / -150)17.5 (-125 / +110)C. Mlodzinski2.5 (-159 / +132)12.5 (+131 / -175)
Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs L5.210236544
L5.210236544Aug 6@ 
W7.09555200
W7.09555200Aug 1@ W7.09669222
W7.09669222Jul 26vs 
L5.09744323
L5.09744323Jul 21@ L0.24215266
L0.24215266C. Mlodzinski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ L2.15915344
L2.15915344Aug 7vs L3.06317155
L3.06317155Aug 1@ W3.0*4741100
W3.0*4741100Jul 29vs 
L3.0*3012000
L3.0*3012000Jul 26vs W2.0*3323011
W2.0*3323011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Framber Valdez
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT7.02.5711.04.03.0(1)
at PIT7.02.5711.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 5@ W7.099114322
W7.099114322C. Mlodzinski
IPERAKHBB
vs DET—
home starts3.015.001.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs L3.06317155
L3.06317155Trends · DET
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 5.8 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET average 5.4 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 3-2 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-0 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 2 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-1 in C. Mlodzinski's last 4 home starts.
- PIT average 3.4 runs/game in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 6.5 runs/game in C. Mlodzinski's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-0 to the over in C. Mlodzinski's last 2 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph NW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- DET — Framber Valdez: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: small sample (8.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: HH% 55% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- DET bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PIT bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- DET — Framber Valdez: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-01, 2026-07-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: last start: 59 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
DET ML (-118)
Mlodzinski has been unusable over his last 3 with a 7.43 xERA, a 55% hard-hit rate, and outings of 3.0 and 2.1 innings, while Valdez brings a serviceable 4.44 xERA and goes deep at 6.6 IP per start, and dominated Pittsburgh for 11 strikeouts in his lone meeting. Detroit's bat is cold at 71 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 but that sits against 108 over its last 12, a slump inside a real lineup facing the worst starter on the slate. A price barely better than a coin flip badly underrates this pitching mismatch.
DET Team Total o4.5 (+114)
Detroit's bats sit at 118 wRC+ over their last 6 and a matching 115 over their last 12 vs RHP, an established above-average offense, and they face Mlodzinski's 7.43 xERA, 54.8% hard-hit rate and 4.2 IP/gs over his last 3 — he lasted just 2.1 innings his last time out. Getting plus money on a settled good lineup against one of the worst arms on the board is a price that undersells how early and often Detroit gets to the runs here.
ARI @ BOS✓7:10 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
ARI @ BOS✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Mitch Bratt L
xERA2.49 (elite)ERA1.50K%22.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%4.7 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs84BB%12.1
BOS vs LHP · last 6
wRC+21 (poor)12+55K%32.1 (poor)HH%17.6 (poor)Whiff%30.8
Alec Gamboa
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
ARI
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.28 (avg)ERA 3.792d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 2.19 (elite)ERA 3.552d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+121+1.5 (-170)O9.0 (+100)BOS-130-1.5 (+146)U9.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+114+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (-118)BOS-142-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI4.5 (+114/+116)1.5 (-154/+120)BOS4.5 (-102/-115)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMitch Bratt3.5 (-138 / +111)14.5 (-154 / +120)Alec Gamboa——
Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs 
L6.07844122
L6.07844122Aug 5vs W7.09291300
W7.09291300Jul 31@ W5.08223411
W5.08223411Jul 25@ L5.09237555
L5.09237555Jul 20vs L4.28448122
L4.28448122Trends · ARI
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 2-3 in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-1 in Mitch Bratt's last 4 away starts.
- ARI average 4.2 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 5.2 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 2-3 to the over in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in Mitch Bratt's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
74°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph S
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- BOS — Alec Gamboa: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- BOS bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: low-K outing 2026-07-31 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: high-K outing 2026-08-05 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- ARI — Mitch Bratt: recent opponents low-K: CLE 15%, COL 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
ARI F5 ML (+122)
Bratt owns a 2.49 xERA over his last 3 facing a Boston lineup at -14 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 (55 over its last 12), a bat that has produced 1.6 runs per game and gone 0-5 in its starter's last five outings. Bello is making his first start in 74 days with two relief outings mixed in and is unlikely to be fully stretched, while Arizona carries an established 127 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (121 over its last 12) into the matchup. Taking the first five removes Arizona's weaker bullpen from the equation, and getting plus money on the better lineup against a rusty arm is the value the ML doesn't offer.
Mitch Bratt o3.5 Ks (-138)
Boston is whiffing at a 32.1% clip over their last 6 vs LHP while sitting at just 21 wRC+, and Bratt brings a 22.7% K rate over his last 3 who has gone 5, 7 and 6 innings in those starts. His recent modest strikeout totals came against low-K Cleveland and Colorado lineups, so they understate what he does against a far more strikeout-prone Boston order — 3.5 is a low bar against this contact profile.
SDP @ NYM7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
SDP @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Walker Buehler R
xERA3.53 (good)ERA3.14K%14.3 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs84BB%7.9
NYM vs RHP · last 6
wRC+177 (elite)12+152K%23.0 (avg)HH%47.1 (elite)Whiff%27.7
Nolan McLean R
xERA3.99 (avg)ERA4.15K%23.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs93BB%9.7
SDP vs RHP · last 6
wRC+126 (above avg)12+132K%17.2 (above avg)HH%45.3 (elite)Whiff%24.6
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.33 (elite)ERA 2.902d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.87 (avg)ERA 2.792d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+111+1.5 (-190)O8.0 (-105)NYM-119-1.5 (+163)U8.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+128+0.5 (-115)O4.5 (-102)NYM-160-0.5 (-113)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (-120/-105)1.5 (-125/-105)NYM3.5 (-140/+116)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWalker Buehler3.5 (-156 / +125)15.5 (+130 / -172)Nolan McLean5.5 (-140 / +116)17.5 (-144 / +120)
Walker Buehler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs 
W6.09853211
W6.09853211Aug 6@ W4.07636111
W4.07636111Aug 1vs 
W4.17918233
W4.17918233Jul 26@ W5.19274223
W5.19274223Jul 21@ W5.29032522
W5.29032522Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ L6.08531211
L6.08531211Aug 6@ W5.09488355
W5.09488355Jul 30vs W6.19966222
W6.19966222Jul 25vs 
L6.09677224
L6.09677224Jul 19@ W6.093102200
W6.093102200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Walker Buehler
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM2.10.004.00.02.0(1)
at NYM—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 20vs W2.15240200
W2.15240200Nolan McLean
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP6.01.505.03.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 6@ L6.010153311
L6.010153311home starts6.01.996.76.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30vs W6.19966222
W6.19966222Jul 25vs L6.09677224
L6.09677224Jul 10vs L6.09875202
L6.09875202Trends · SDP
- SDP are 1-2 vs NYM this season (3 games).
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 5-0 in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 4-1 in Walker Buehler's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 7.0 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 5.4 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 4-1 to the over in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 1-1 to the over in Walker Buehler's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 2-1 vs SDP this season (3 games).
- NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-4 in Nolan McLean's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 5.2 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 2.4 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 2-3 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-1 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph NE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- SDP bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — Walker Buehler: recent opponents low-K: SFG 18%, ARI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- NYM — Nolan McLean: 2026-08-06: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Two strong offenses against decent starters with good bullpens behind them leave the total fairly set at 8, and New York's elite recent wRC+ clashes with a home scoring dip that makes the priced-up team total and sides too close to back.
ATH @ KCR7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumHitter Friendly
ATH @ KCRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Mason Barnett R
xERA4.38 (avg)ERA8.78K%21.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.0 (elite)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs74BB%11.3
KCR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+52 (poor)12+70K%24.4 (below avg)HH%35.1 (avg)Whiff%18.9
Michael Wacha R
xERA2.87 (elite)ERA2.45K%17.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.9 (avg)Barrel%6.9 (good)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs96BB%4.0
ATH vs RHP · last 6
wRC+118 (above avg)12+97K%16.4 (above avg)HH%32.2 (below avg)Whiff%21.3
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 4.38 (avg)ERA 6.022d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 5.17 (below avg)ERA 4.052d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+165+1.5 (-125)O9.0 (-105)KCR-177-1.5 (+108)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+154+0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-146)KCR-188-0.5 (-140)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH3.5 (-125/-102)1.5 (-140/+110)KCR4.5 (-136/+110)2.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMason Barnett3.5 (+115 / -142)14.5 (+106 / -135)Michael Wacha4.5 (+104 / -127)18.5 (+113 / -148)
Mason Barnett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs L4.06705356
L4.06705356Aug 6@ L4.18275355
L4.18275355Jul 30vs L5.07364133
L5.07364133Jul 25@ L3.1*5424122
L3.1*5424122Jul 10@ L1.0*2403133
L1.0*2403133Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ L6.29657033
L6.29657033Aug 6vs L5.29413311
L5.29413311Jul 31@ L6.09975013
L6.09975013Jul 25@ W7.09636222
W7.09636222Jul 20vs W6.09653211
W6.09653211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Mason Barnett
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.25.193.03.02.0(1)
at KCR—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 26vs W5.29733233
W5.29733233Michael Wacha
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH5.45.035.06.33.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 29@ L5.010558444
L5.010558444Sep 27@ W6.08352300
W6.08352300Jun 13vs L5.19359255
L5.19359255home starts5.73.144.34.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs L5.29413311
L5.29413311Jul 20vs W6.09653211
W6.09653211Jul 4vs L6.010578144
L6.010578144Trends · ATH
- ATH are 2-1 vs KCR this season (3 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 0-3 in Mason Barnett's last 3 starts.
- ATH are 0-1 in Mason Barnett's last 1 away starts.
- ATH average 4.3 runs/game in Mason Barnett's last 3 starts.
- ATH average 5.0 runs/game in Mason Barnett's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 1-2 to the over in Mason Barnett's last 3 starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 1-2 vs ATH this season (3 games).
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Michael Wacha's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 3.0 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 2.6 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 0-2 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph NNE
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- ATH — Mason Barnett: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.17 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- ATH — Mason Barnett: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-25, 2026-07-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATH — Mason Barnett: last start: 67 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Wacha's low strikeout rate points under against Oakland's contact-heavy lineup, but he has struck out exactly 5 in each of his last 3 meetings with them, and neither side of the game offers a clean enough edge at these prices.
ATL @ MIN✓7:40 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
ATL @ MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Martin Perez L
xERA2.26 (elite)ERA0.00K%19.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs1.7PC/gs65BB%10.5
MIN vs LHP · last 6
wRC+149 (elite)12+126K%31.4 (poor)HH%41.5 (above avg)Whiff%20.2
Bailey Ober R
xERA5.41 (poor)ERA5.00K%9.6 (poor)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below avg)Barrel%14.3 (below avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs84BB%4.1
ATL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+71 (poor)12+77K%22.2 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)Whiff%21.2
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 4.292d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 2.92 (elite)ERA 3.462d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-122-1.5 (+130)O9.0 (-115)MIN+116+1.5 (-149)U9.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-128-0.5 (+106)O5.5 (-102)MIN+102+0.5 (-138)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL4.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (-115/-115)MIN4.5 (+116/-145)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMartin Perez3.5 (-106 / -114)15.5 (+124 / -159)Bailey Ober3.5 (+100 / -118)17.5 (-102 / -130)
Martin Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs W6.08224300
W6.08224300Aug 6vs W3.03530100
W3.03530100Aug 1vs W7.07861200
W7.07861200Jul 27@ L5.08748133
L5.08748133Jul 22vs W4.07531400
W4.07531400Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs L6.010048155
L6.010048155Aug 6@ W6.07406033
W6.07406033Jul 30vs W6.07934223
W6.07934223Jul 22@ W4.08928144
W4.08928144Jul 17@ W5.18875222
W5.18875222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Martin Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN6.00.009.00.03.0(1)
at MIN—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 31vs W6.09390300
W6.09390300Bailey Ober
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL—
home starts5.74.244.05.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs L6.010048155
L6.010048155Jul 30vs W6.07934223
W6.07934223Jul 9vs L5.07453111
L5.07453111Trends · ATL
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 6.6 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.2 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 4-1 to the over in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 4-1 in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 5.0 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 3.2 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 1-4 to the over in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 0-3 to the over in Bailey Ober's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph WSW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- MIN — Bailey Ober: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIN — Bailey Ober: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATL bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN — Bailey Ober: 2026-08-11: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Bailey Ober u3.5 Ks (-120)
Ober owns a 9.6% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts and has totaled just 3, 0 and 4 punchouts in those outings, averaging 2.3 per start. Even with a deep outs line of 17.5 giving him the innings, a barely-there whiff rate against an Atlanta lineup that makes plenty of contact leaves 3.5 as an ask above his current level.
CHW @ CHC✓8:05 PM · Wrigley FieldPitcher Friendly
CHW @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Luis Castillo R
xERA5.48 (poor)ERA5.63K%25.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs88BB%7.5
CHC vs RHP · last 6
wRC+111 (avg)12+108K%21.5 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)Whiff%19.5
Shota Imanaga L
xERA4.71 (below avg)ERA3.86K%25.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.7 (good)Barrel%14.3 (below avg)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs92BB%0.0
CHW vs LHP · last 6
wRC+193 (elite)12+152K%21.2 (avg)HH%45.6 (elite)Whiff%18.2
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 3.772d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 4.44 (avg)ERA 4.062d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+146+1.5 (-150)O8.5 (+100)CHC-155-1.5 (+129)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+135+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-113)CHC-164-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-106/-115)1.5 (-125/-105)CHC4.5 (+102/-130)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULuis Castillo4.5 (-125 / -101)16.5 (-110 / -111)Shota Imanaga5.5 (-120 / -104)17.5 (-150 / +121)
Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W7.0104101200
W7.0104101200Aug 6@ L4.07156155
L4.07156155Jul 28@ W5.090211255
W5.090211255Jul 21vs L7.010134233
L7.010134233Jul 10@ L5.09149144
L5.09149144Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ W4.28656044
W4.28656044Aug 5vs W5.08968011
W5.08968011Jul 31vs L6.210164022
L6.210164022Jul 25@ W6.08444100
W6.08444100Jul 19vs W7.09946100
W7.09946100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shota Imanaga
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW3.021.002.012.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 25@ L3.085212077
L3.085212077home starts6.11.485.36.00.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs W5.08968011
W5.08968011Jul 31vs L6.210164022
L6.210164022Jul 19vs W7.09946100
W7.09946100Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-1 vs CHC this season (3 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-1 in Luis Castillo's last 3 starts.
- CHW are 0-1 in Luis Castillo's last 1 away starts.
- CHW average 7.3 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 3 starts.
- CHW average 11.0 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 1-2 vs CHW this season (3 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 7.2 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 4.0 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 3-2 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-2 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
71°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph S
APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 8
- CHW — Luis Castillo: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHC — Shota Imanaga: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CHW — Luis Castillo: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CHW — Luis Castillo: 2026-08-06: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHW — Luis Castillo: low-K outing 2026-07-28 (2 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
- CHW — Luis Castillo: high-K outing 2026-08-12 (10 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- CHC — Shota Imanaga: 2026-08-11: 4 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHC — Shota Imanaga: recent opponents high-K: LAD 27%, WSN 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
CHW Team Total o3.5 (-104)
Chicago's White Sox are crushing left-handers, posting a 193 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 152 over their last 12, so even the regressed read is elite. Imanaga brings a 4.71 xERA and a 14.3% barrel rate over his last 3 into that buzzsaw, and this same lineup tagged him for 12 hits and 7 earned in 3 innings the last time they met. A team total of 3.5 at even money undervalues one of the best platoon matchups on the board.
LAD @ COL✓8:40 PM · Coors FieldHot
LAD @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Blake Snell L
xERA2.28 (elite)ERA5.00K%37.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%13.6 (elite)Barrel%4.5 (elite)IP/gs4.5 IP/gsH/gs4.5PC/gs80BB%7.5
COL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+78 (poor)12+80K%17.5 (above avg)HH%26.7 (poor)Whiff%17.8
Tomoyuki Sugano R
xERA4.09 (avg)ERA3.06K%14.5 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%10.5 (avg)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%2.9
LAD vs RHP · last 6
wRC+78 (poor)12+69K%21.7 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)Whiff%24.0
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 3.602d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.70 (below avg)ERA 3.752d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-260-1.5 (-170)O11.0 (+100)COL+244+1.5 (+144)U11.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-238-1.5 (+100)O5.5 (-118)COL+190+1.5 (-130)U5.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD6.5 (-115/-110)3.5 (+100/-130)COL3.5 (-130/+104)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBlake Snell7.5 (+117 / +128)17.5 (-108 / -110)Tomoyuki Sugano2.5 (-156 / +131)15.5 (+135 / +119)
Blake Snell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs W6.084103111
W6.084103111May 9vs L3.07756245
L3.07756245Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ W6.09356022
W6.09356022Aug 5vs L5.08535233
L5.08535233Jul 31vs W6.28325011
W6.28325011Jul 24@ W5.19356122
W5.19356122Jul 18vs W6.17736033
W6.17736033SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Blake Snell
IPERAKHBB
vs COL6.00.0011.02.02.0(1)
at COL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 10vs W6.0104112200
W6.0104112200Tomoyuki Sugano
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD3.78.842.37.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 27@ L4.28336133
L4.28336133Apr 17vs L4.09139255
L4.09139255Sep 7vs L3.06717034
L3.06717034home starts5.83.642.75.30.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs L5.08535233
L5.08535233Jul 31vs W6.28325011
W6.28325011Jul 18vs W6.17736033
W6.17736033Trends · LAD
- LAD are 7-3 vs COL this season (10 games).
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 1-1 in Blake Snell's last 2 starts.
- LAD average 3.5 runs/game in Blake Snell's last 2 starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · COL
- COL are 3-7 vs LAD this season (10 games).
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 4-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 4.2 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.4 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 0-5 to the over in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
- COL are 0-3 to the over in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
93°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 5 mph ESE
APF 116 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- COL bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD — Blake Snell: 2026-05-09: 4 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: recent opponents low-K: TBR 12%, ARI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 116) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
Tomoyuki Sugano u3.5 Ks (+122)
Sugano misses few bats at a 14.5% strikeout rate over his last 3, posting just 2 and 3 Ks in two of those outings, and the Dodgers have hammered him for an 8.84 ERA across three meetings while he averaged only 2.3 strikeouts and 3.7 innings against them. A contact-oriented Los Angeles lineup that squares him up tends to chase him early, shortening his outing and his whiff chances, so plus money on the under is the value.
Blake Snell o6.5 Ks (-145)
Snell carries a dominant 37.5% strikeout rate over his last 3 and struck out 11 Rockies in his one prior meeting with them. Colorado has slumped to 29 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and its 21.2% strikeout rate offers no protection against that kind of swing-and-miss, and his outs line of 17.5 gives him the innings to clear the number. The market is shading toward his limited recent workload, but the whiff profile against this lineup carries the over.