MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 4 Bets · Aug 11

Sean Burke o7.5 Ks (+120)

Burke is missing bats at a 35.8 K% over his last 3 with 10, 10 and 4 strikeouts, and CIN whiffs at a 29.1 K% vs RHP over their last 12 — both signals point up. Chicago's bullpen is stressed (8.0 IP over the past 2 days), so the manager has reason to let Burke wear a deep pitch count rather than pull him. At plus money the line undersells a high-strikeout arm against one of the most strikeout-prone lineups he'll see.

Found at 4:34 AM ET

Bailey Ober u4.5 Ks (-124)

Ober owns a 7.3 K% over his last 3 with strikeout totals of 2, 3 and 0, the lowest bat-missing rate on the board by a wide margin. His outs line sits at a normal 16.5, so this is not a short-outing distortion — it is simply an arm that lets hitters put the ball in play. Against a BAL group that isn't a heavy-whiff lineup, the number of punchouts required to clear 4.5 is well beyond anything he's produced recently.

Found at 4:34 AM ET

HOU -1.5 (-113)

Hunter Brown carries a 2.45 xERA over his last 3 with a 29.0 K% and faces a middling SFG lineup at 97 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 12, and Houston's bullpen (1.90 xERA over its last 12) is built to protect a lead. Whisenhunt has been shelled — 6.72 xERA, 56% hard-hit and 3.9 IP/gs over his last 3 — while HOU's lineup sits at 109 wRC+ vs LHP, pointing to Houston scoring early and often. The market has this priced as a straight ML at -194; the runline at -113 pays the same conviction at a fraction of the cost because a Whisenhunt start rarely stays a one-run game.

Found at 4:34 AM ET

Blake Snell u6.5 Ks (-142)

Snell hasn't started a game in 94 days and threw just 77 pitches over 3.0 innings his last time out, so he'll be on a tight leash today with the club needing only a few innings before turning to a bullpen it has leaned on. Even at his 27.8 K% he cannot accumulate seven strikeouts in the workload a rusty, un-stretched starter will be given. The market is pricing his stuff rather than his innings, and the innings cap is the whole story here.

Found at 4:34 AM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

CLE @

DET

6:40 PM · Comerica ParkRainy

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Tanner Bibee R

xERA3.54 (good)ERA3.79K%23.4 (good)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs102BB%3.9

DET vs RHP

wRC+146 (elite)K%19.4 (above avg)HH%36.6 (avg)Whiff%20.1

Drew Anderson R

xERA3.63 (good)ERA2.84K%16.0 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%36.8 (avg)Barrel%10.5 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs31BB%8.0

CLE vs RHP

wRC+98 (avg)K%18.8 (above avg)HH%33.8 (below avg)Whiff%21.2

Bullpens · Last 12

CLE

xERA 4.48 (avg)ERA 5.912d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)

DET

xERA 3.21 (good)ERA 3.192d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCLE+105-1.5 (+172)O8.5 (-110)DET-122-1.5 (+160)U8.5 (-108)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCLE+105+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-128)DET-128-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-102)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE3.5 (-140/+116)2.5 (+124/-160)DET4.5 (+114/-135)2.5 (+105/-135)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTanner Bibee4.5 (-108 / -101)17.5 (-135 / +102)Drew Anderson3.5 (+111 / -132)12.5 (+150 / -202)

Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5vs

L5.298104034

Jul 31vs

L7.110033122

Jul 25@

L6.010759233

Jul 20vs

W6.09556122

Jul 11@

W6.29435411

Drew Anderson · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5@

L3.24203100

Aug 2@

W1.1*2221000

Jul 29vs

L1.1*3021122

Jul 27vs

L1.2*2201000

Jul 23vs

W1.0*1812011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tanner Bibee

IPERAKHBB

vs DET7.01.716.03.71.7(3)

at DET7.00.867.03.71.3(3)

Drew Anderson

IPERAKHBB

vs CLE4.20.007.02.02.0(1)

home starts—

Trends · CLE

CLE are 6-1 vs DET this season (7 games).
CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
CLE are 2-3 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
CLE are 3-2 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.
CLE average 4.6 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
CLE average 3.4 runs/game in Tanner Bibee's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CLE are 3-2 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 5 starts.
CLE are 0-2 to the over in Tanner Bibee's last 2 away starts.

Trends · DET

DET are 1-6 vs CLE this season (7 games).
DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
DET are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
DET are 1-2 in Drew Anderson's last 3 starts.
DET are 0-1 in Drew Anderson's last 1 home starts.
DET average 4.3 runs/game in Drew Anderson's last 3 starts.
DET average 2.0 runs/game in Drew Anderson's last 1 home starts.

Over / Under

DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.

Weather · Rainy

72°F, Heavy Rain, Wind 11 mph N

APF 102 — Neutral · Rain possible (45%)

Flags · 6

DET — Drew Anderson: small sample (6.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
CLE bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
DET bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
DET — Drew Anderson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-02, 2026-07-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
DET — Drew Anderson: last start: 42 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
WEATHER: rain risk 45% — game delay or conditions may affect performance

AI Analysis

A 45% rain risk plus Drew Anderson's tiny sample and unclear workload make this uninvestable.

PIT @

MIA

6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Paul Skenes R

xERA4.49 (avg)ERA8.16K%35.8 (elite)

More Stats

HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%15.6 (poor)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs99BB%14.9

MIA vs RHP

wRC+107 (avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%37.4 (avg)Whiff%24.1

Eury Perez R

xERA2.50 (elite)ERA4.00K%22.4 (avg)

More Stats

HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%3.8 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs97BB%6.6

PIT vs RHP

wRC+100 (avg)K%24.4 (below avg)HH%36.1 (avg)Whiff%25.5

Bullpens · Last 12

PIT

xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 2.602d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)

MIA

xERA 2.98 (elite)ERA 2.632d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPIT-118-1.5 (+146)O7.0 (-110)MIA+104+1.5 (-175)U7.0 (-108)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPIT-122-0.5 (+122)O3.5 (-120)MIA-102+0.5 (-160)U3.5 (-108)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (-111/-115)1.5 (-125/-105)MIA3.5 (+118/-140)1.5 (-110/-120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UPaul Skenes6.5 (-132 / +114)17.5 (-102 / -110)Eury Perez6.5 (+100 / -127)16.5 (-125 / -105)

Paul Skenes · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5@

L5.09362433

Jul 31@

L4.010077455

Jul 25vs

L5.1105116255

Jul 19@

W7.010087211

Jul 12vs

W5.18273122

Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5@

L5.09197244

Jul 30@

L6.09763212

Jul 25vs

L7.010427133

Jul 19@

L6.09391300

Jul 11vs

L6.09968222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Paul Skenes

IPERAKHBB

vs MIA5.53.248.53.51.5(2)

at MIA5.13.537.03.02.0(1)

Eury Perez

IPERAKHBB

vs PIT3.012.005.04.02.0(1)

home starts5.73.143.06.01.0(3)

Trends · PIT

PIT are 1-2 vs MIA this season (3 games).
PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
PIT are 2-3 in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
PIT are 1-4 in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.
PIT average 6.0 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
PIT average 4.6 runs/game in Paul Skenes's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
PIT are 3-2 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 5 starts.
PIT are 1-2 to the over in Paul Skenes's last 3 away starts.

Trends · MIA

MIA are 2-1 vs PIT this season (3 games).
MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
MIA are 0-5 in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
MIA are 2-3 in Eury Perez's last 5 home starts.
MIA average 1.4 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
MIA average 2.6 runs/game in Eury Perez's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

MIA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
MIA are 3-2 to the over in Eury Perez's last 5 starts.
MIA are 1-1 to the over in Eury Perez's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 7

PIT — Paul Skenes: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
PIT — Paul Skenes: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
PIT — Paul Skenes: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
PIT bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIA — Eury Perez: 2026-08-05: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIA — Eury Perez: low-K outing 2026-07-25 (2 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day

AI Analysis

Skenes' ERA overstates the damage but his command issues and short outings against Perez's elite recent form leave the low total and the side fairly priced.

CHC @

WSN

6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Shota Imanaga L

xERA3.35 (good)ERA1.53K%23.2 (good)

More Stats

HH%28.8 (elite)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs91BB%1.5

WSN vs LHP

wRC+69 (poor)K%23.3 (avg)HH%29.8 (poor)Whiff%27.1

Jake Irvin R

xERA3.53 (good)ERA4.11K%19.6 (avg)

More Stats

HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%15.0 (below avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs75BB%8.9

CHC vs RHP

wRC+90 (below avg)K%21.5 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)Whiff%18.9

Bullpens · Last 12

CHC

xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 2.952d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

WSN

xERA 3.79 (avg)ERA 2.822d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCHC-166-1.5 (-102)O9.0 (-105)WSN+143+1.5 (-115)U9.0 (-106)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCHC-176-0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-140)WSN+140+0.5 (-106)U4.5 (+108)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UCHC5.5 (+114/-145)WSN3.5 (-120/+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UShota Imanaga5.5 (+100 / -122)17.5 (-170 / +127)Jake Irvin4.5 (+133 / -162)15.5 (+140 / -180)

Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5vs

W5.08968011

Jul 31vs

L6.210164022

Jul 25@

W6.08444100

Jul 19vs

W7.09946100

Jul 10@

L5.010257111

Jake Irvin · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5@

W5.18333222

Jul 30@

L5.06113255

May 23@

W5.08070100

May 18vs

L4.07466123

May 13@

W3.08644456

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Shota Imanaga

IPERAKHBB

vs WSN5.07.207.06.02.0(1)

at WSN—

Jake Irvin

IPERAKHBB

vs CHC4.48.244.05.32.3(3)

home starts4.75.794.36.72.0(3)

Trends · CHC

CHC are 1-2 vs WSN this season (3 games).
CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
CHC are 3-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
CHC are 2-3 in Shota Imanaga's last 5 away starts.
CHC average 5.6 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
CHC average 5.6 runs/game in Shota Imanaga's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CHC are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CHC are 2-3 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 5 starts.
CHC are 1-1 to the over in Shota Imanaga's last 2 away starts.

Trends · WSN

WSN are 2-1 vs CHC this season (3 games).
WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
WSN are 3-2 in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
WSN are 1-4 in Jake Irvin's last 5 home starts.
WSN average 6.2 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 starts.
WSN average 4.8 runs/game in Jake Irvin's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
WSN are 1-2 to the over in Jake Irvin's last 3 starts.

Weather · Hot

94°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph WNW

APF 106 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 5

WSN — Jake Irvin: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
CHC bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
WSN bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CHC — Shota Imanaga: recent opponents high-K: PIT 26%, NYY 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
WSN — Jake Irvin: 2026-07-30: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Imanaga is the better arm against a weak Washington lineup, but Chicago is already -166 and his strikeout number was inflated by recent high-whiff opponents, so nothing offers an edge.

SEA @

NYY

7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Bryan Woo R

xERA4.27 (avg)ERA5.29K%24.7 (good)

More Stats

HH%42.5 (below avg)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs92BB%6.9

NYY vs RHP

wRC+70 (poor)K%27.6 (below avg)HH%44.6 (above avg)Whiff%26.8

Ryan Weathers L

xERA3.12 (good)ERA0.48K%23.9 (good)

More Stats

HH%41.7 (below avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs97BB%7.0

SEA vs LHP

wRC+94 (below avg)K%23.1 (avg)HH%37.6 (avg)Whiff%22.0

Bullpens · Last 12

SEA

xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 6.032d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)

NYY

xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 4.792d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSEA+110+1.5 (-184)O8.5 (-104)NYY-130-1.5 (+155)U8.0 (-108)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSEA+105+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-108)NYY-122-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-120)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-125/+106)1.5 (-135/+105)NYY4.5 (+122/-145)2.5 (+130/-166)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UBryan Woo6.5 (+122 / -150)17.5 (-112 / -114)Ryan Weathers6.5 (+121 / -150)17.5 (-130 / +110)

Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5vs

W7.09153100

Jul 30@

L5.09185255

Jul 25@

L5.09559255

Jul 18vs

W6.09876223

Jul 7@

L5.08759134

Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

W6.08864100

Jul 30@

L7.010643300

Jul 25@

W5.29776111

Jul 20vs

W4.29957255

Jul 10@

W5.19166011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Bryan Woo

IPERAKHBB

vs NYY6.61.365.53.01.0(2)

at NYY7.12.545.02.02.0(1)

Ryan Weathers

IPERAKHBB

vs SEA4.12.207.04.02.0(1)

home starts4.75.705.75.71.7(3)

Trends · SEA

SEA are 1-2 vs NYY this season (3 games).
SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
SEA have lost 4 straight.
SEA are 2-3 in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
SEA are 0-5 in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.
SEA average 3.2 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
SEA average 2.8 runs/game in Bryan Woo's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

SEA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
SEA are 2-3 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 5 starts.
SEA are 1-2 to the over in Bryan Woo's last 3 away starts.

Trends · NYY

NYY are 2-1 vs SEA this season (3 games).
NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 4-1 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
NYY are 2-3 in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.
NYY average 3.8 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
NYY average 3.0 runs/game in Ryan Weathers's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
NYY are 1-4 to the over in Ryan Weathers's last 5 starts.
NYY are 1-2 to the over in Ryan Weathers's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

87°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 5 mph NW

APF 104 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 3

SEA bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-07-25: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
NYY — Ryan Weathers: recent opponents low-K: PHI 19%, STL 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher

AI Analysis

Woo owning the Yankees and their poor 70 wRC+ vs RHP is tempting, but Seattle's leaky bullpen and road futility make the plus-money price a fair coinflip.

BOS @

TOR

7:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Patrick Sandoval L

xERA4.07 (avg)ERA2.45K%22.4 (avg)

More Stats

HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs88BB%11.9

TOR vs LHP

wRC+44 (poor)K%24.3 (below avg)HH%21.3 (poor)Whiff%24.6

Dylan Cease R

xERA1.63 (elite)ERA0.41K%37.2 (elite)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs7.3 IP/gsH/gs2.0PC/gs107BB%9.0

BOS vs RHP

wRC+154 (elite)K%16.5 (above avg)HH%35.0 (avg)Whiff%22.8

Bullpens · Last 12

BOS

xERA 2.13 (elite)ERA 2.122d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)

TOR

xERA 3.57 (good)ERA 3.182d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBOS+128+1.5 (-174)O7.0 (-110)TOR-145-1.5 (+155)U7.0 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBOS+148+0.5 (-108)O3.5 (-128)TOR-175-0.5 (-120)U3.5 (-102)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS3.5 (+122/-140)1.5 (+105/-135)TOR3.5 (-118/+100)2.5 (+120/-154)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UPatrick Sandoval4.5 (+124 / -135)15.5 (+112 / -148)Dylan Cease7.5 (-132 / +116)18.5 (+148 / -183)

Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 4vs

W5.08956422

Jul 29@

W5.09275222

Jul 24vs

W4.28435200

Jul 18vs

W5.07659145

Jul 9@

W4.16555111

Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6@

L7.0104102100

Jul 31vs

W6.09673311

Jul 25@

W9.0120121300

Jul 20vs

L6.010177135

Jul 8@

W8.0118111300

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Patrick Sandoval

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR4.20.003.05.02.0(1)

at TOR—

Dylan Cease

IPERAKHBB

vs BOS6.41.888.04.03.3(3)

home starts5.44.448.04.73.0(3)

Trends · BOS

BOS are 3-7 vs TOR this season (10 games).
BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
BOS are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
BOS are 5-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
BOS are 2-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 2 away starts.
BOS average 6.6 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts.
BOS average 3.0 runs/game in Patrick Sandoval's last 2 away starts.

Over / Under

BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
BOS are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
BOS are 2-2 to the over in Patrick Sandoval's last 4 starts.

Trends · TOR

TOR are 7-3 vs BOS this season (10 games).
TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
TOR are 3-2 in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.
TOR average 4.4 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
TOR average 3.0 runs/game in Dylan Cease's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

TOR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
TOR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
TOR are 3-2 to the over in Dylan Cease's last 5 starts.
TOR are 2-1 to the over in Dylan Cease's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

76°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph E

APF 103 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 3

BOS bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TOR bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today

AI Analysis

Cease is a wall by xERA but Boston's elite contact lineup and his 104-pitch last outing make the strikeout over a trap, and the rest of the board is priced correctly.

NYM @

ATL

7:15 PM · Truist ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Nolan McLean R

xERA4.81 (below avg)ERA4.67K%26.6 (good)

More Stats

HH%41.2 (below avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs96BB%8.9

ATL vs RHP

wRC+92 (below avg)K%24.7 (below avg)HH%43.9 (above avg)Whiff%22.2

Martin Perez L

xERA2.76 (elite)ERA1.80K%22.4 (avg)

More Stats

HH%36.6 (avg)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs67BB%6.9

NYM vs LHP

wRC+130 (elite)K%30.1 (poor)HH%44.8 (above avg)Whiff%24.3

Bullpens · Last 12

NYM

xERA 2.79 (elite)ERA 2.202d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

ATL

xERA 3.44 (good)ERA 3.462d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalNYM+110+1.5 (-188)O8.5 (-108)ATL-126-1.5 (+159)U8.5 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalNYM+100+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (-114)ATL-114-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-114)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (-140/+114)1.5 (-145/+114)ATL4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+120/-154)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UNolan McLean5.5 (-150 / +126)17.5 (-126 / +100)Martin Perez4.5 (+130 / +124)14.5 (-161 / +121)

Nolan McLean · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6@

W5.09488355

Jul 30vs

W6.19966222

Jul 25vs

L6.09677224

Jul 19@

W6.093102200

Jul 10vs

L6.09875202

Martin Perez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6vs

W3.03530100

Aug 1vs

W7.07861200

Jul 27@

L5.08748133

Jul 22vs

W4.07531400

Jul 5vs

L4.17716245

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Nolan McLean

IPERAKHBB

vs ATL5.73.186.04.01.7(3)

at ATL6.52.776.04.50.5(2)

Martin Perez

IPERAKHBB

vs NYM4.75.073.06.01.3(3)

home starts4.70.004.00.72.3(3)

Trends · NYM

NYM are 7-5 vs ATL this season (12 games).
NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
NYM are 3-2 in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
NYM are 5-0 in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.
NYM average 5.6 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
NYM average 8.2 runs/game in Nolan McLean's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
NYM are 3-2 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 5 starts.
NYM are 1-2 to the over in Nolan McLean's last 3 away starts.

Trends · ATL

ATL are 5-7 vs NYM this season (12 games).
ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
ATL are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
ATL are 3-2 in Martin Perez's last 5 home starts.
ATL average 7.6 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
ATL average 7.6 runs/game in Martin Perez's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
ATL are 4-1 to the over in Martin Perez's last 5 starts.
ATL are 3-0 to the over in Martin Perez's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

90°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph W

APF 103 — Neutral

Flags · 4

NYM bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
ATL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
NYM — Nolan McLean: 2026-08-06: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATL — Martin Perez: last start: 35 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

AI Analysis

New York's elite 130 wRC+ vs LHP against a Perez who has struggled with them historically is a real edge, but the plus-money ML and the total already reflect it closely enough to pass.

BAL @

MIN✓

7:40 PM · Target FieldHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Brandon Young R

xERA4.19 (avg)ERA4.41K%21.7 (avg)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs95BB%8.7

MIN vs RHP

wRC+80 (below avg)K%17.5 (above avg)HH%42.4 (above avg)Whiff%19.8

Bailey Ober R

xERA4.43 (avg)ERA5.06K%7.3 (poor)

More Stats

HH%31.7 (good)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs81BB%4.4

BAL vs RHP

wRC+93 (below avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%41.5 (above avg)Whiff%24.3

Bullpens · Last 12

BAL

xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 4.932d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)

MIN

xERA 2.96 (elite)ERA 2.332d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalBAL-102-1.5 (+154)O9.5 (-105)MIN-112+1.5 (-184)U9.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalBAL-112-0.5 (+116)O5.5 (+102)MIN-112+0.5 (-152)U5.5 (-132)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL4.5 (-115/-110)2.5 (-105/-125)MIN4.5 (-111/-110)2.5 (-105/-125)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Young4.5 (+124 / -149)17.5 (-108 / -120)Bailey Ober4.5 (+114 / -124)16.5 (-125 / -103)

Brandon Young · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6vs

L4.19846233

Jul 31vs

W5.29455244

Jul 25vs

W6.19464211

Jul 19@

W7.09575111

Jul 10vs

W7.08558133

Bailey Ober · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6@

W6.07406033

Jul 30vs

W6.07934223

Jul 22@

W4.08928144

Jul 17@

W5.18875222

Jul 9vs

L5.07453111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Bailey Ober

IPERAKHBB

vs BAL4.44.773.34.71.7(3)

home starts5.33.383.04.31.7(3)

Trends · BAL

BAL are 2-2 vs MIN this season (4 games).
BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
BAL are 4-1 in Brandon Young's last 5 away starts.
BAL average 4.0 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
BAL average 7.8 runs/game in Brandon Young's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
BAL are 1-4 to the over in Brandon Young's last 5 starts.
BAL are 1-1 to the over in Brandon Young's last 2 away starts.

Trends · MIN

MIN are 2-2 vs BAL this season (4 games).
MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
MIN are 4-1 in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
MIN are 4-1 in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.
MIN average 5.0 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 starts.
MIN average 4.2 runs/game in Bailey Ober's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

MIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
MIN are 1-3 to the over in Bailey Ober's last 4 starts.
MIN are 0-2 to the over in Bailey Ober's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Hot

90°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 3 mph ESE

APF 108 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 5

BAL bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIN bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIN — Bailey Ober: last start: 74 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
MIN — Bailey Ober: 2026-07-22: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIN — Bailey Ober: recent opponents low-K: CLE 19%, KCR 16%, KCR 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher

Bailey Ober u4.5 Ks (-124)

CIN @

CHW✓

7:40 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Nick Lodolo L

xERA5.34 (poor)ERA1.69K%17.6 (avg)

More Stats

HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs90BB%13.2

CHW vs LHP

wRC+89 (below avg)K%24.8 (below avg)HH%38.3 (avg)Whiff%24.1

Sean Burke R

xERA3.55 (good)ERA2.20K%35.8 (elite)

More Stats

HH%47.2 (poor)Barrel%8.3 (avg)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs95BB%7.5

CIN vs RHP

wRC+121 (above avg)K%29.1 (poor)HH%41.4 (above avg)Whiff%26.2

Bullpens · Last 12

CIN

xERA 3.18 (good)ERA 4.172d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

CHW

xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 1.872d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCIN+140+1.5 (-154)O8.5 (+102)CHW-155-1.5 (+135)U8.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCIN+140+0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-106)CHW-160-0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-122)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-104/-115)1.5 (-125/-105)CHW4.5 (+100/-128)2.5 (+114/-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UNick Lodolo4.5 (-110 / -105)14.5 (-163 / +122)Sean Burke7.5 (+120 / +124)17.5 (-112 / +100)

Nick Lodolo · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 11vs

L5.07845322

Jul 5vs

W6.09746211

Jun 29@

L5.09641400

Jun 23vs

L4.07562100

Jun 17vs

L4.290211277

Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5@

L4.19145222

Jul 30vs

W6.091103200

Jul 25vs

L6.0102104123

Jul 19@

W6.29852100

Jul 10vs

W7.09894011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Nick Lodolo

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW5.15.294.07.02.0(1)

at CHW—

Sean Burke

IPERAKHBB

vs CIN—

home starts6.31.429.73.71.0(3)

Trends · CIN

CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
CIN are 1-4 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
CIN are 1-3 in Nick Lodolo's last 4 away starts.
CIN average 2.0 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
CIN average 4.8 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 4 away starts.

Over / Under

CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
CIN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CIN are 0-3 to the over in Nick Lodolo's last 3 starts.

Trends · CHW

CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
CHW are 3-2 in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
CHW are 3-2 in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.
CHW average 4.0 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
CHW average 4.0 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CHW are 1-4 to the over in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
CHW are 1-2 to the over in Sean Burke's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

74°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph WSW

APF 100 — Neutral

Flags · 7

CIN — Nick Lodolo: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
CHW — Sean Burke: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
CIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
CHW bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
CIN — Nick Lodolo: 31 days since last start (2026-07-11) — may not be fully stretched out
CIN — Nick Lodolo: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
CIN — Nick Lodolo: recent opponents high-K: MIL 39%, BAL 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

Sean Burke o7.5 Ks (+120)

PHI @

STL

7:45 PM · Busch StadiumHot

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

C. Sanchez L

xERA3.47 (good)ERA2.65K%30.3 (elite)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs99BB%13.2

STL vs LHP

wRC+97 (avg)K%17.9 (above avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)Whiff%17.3

Andre Pallante R

xERA3.37 (good)ERA1.45K%20.8 (avg)

More Stats

HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs94BB%8.3

PHI vs RHP

wRC+109 (avg)K%14.9 (elite)HH%40.0 (above avg)Whiff%18.3

Bullpens · Last 12

PHI

xERA 3.26 (good)ERA 4.542d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

STL

xERA 4.03 (avg)ERA 3.972d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalPHI-170-1.5 (+100)O8.5 (+100)STL+146+1.5 (-115)U8.0 (-103)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalPHI-160-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-102)STL+132+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-128)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (-115/-110)2.5 (+105/-135)STL3.5 (+106/-130)1.5 (-130/+100)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UC. Sanchez5.5 (-142 / +122)18.5 (+112 / -135)Andre Pallante3.5 (+110 / -137)16.5 (-113 / -117)

C. Sanchez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6vs

W5.09866222

Aug 1@

W6.099112500

Jul 26vs

W6.010166333

Jul 20vs

W5.19977023

Jul 11@

W7.0103710122

Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5@

W5.110343311

Jul 30vs

L6.19037222

Jul 25vs

W7.09082100

Jul 19@

L5.18835233

Jul 9vs

L5.09728266

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

C. Sanchez

IPERAKHBB

vs STL6.02.235.56.02.5(2)

at STL6.11.483.08.02.0(1)

Andre Pallante

IPERAKHBB

vs PHI7.00.004.02.02.0(1)

home starts6.03.984.35.71.7(3)

Trends · PHI

PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
PHI are 5-0 in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
PHI are 3-2 in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.
PHI average 7.4 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
PHI average 4.0 runs/game in C. Sanchez's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
PHI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
PHI are 2-3 to the over in C. Sanchez's last 5 starts.
PHI are 0-3 to the over in C. Sanchez's last 3 away starts.

Trends · STL

STL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
STL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
STL are 2-3 in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
STL are 2-3 in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.
STL average 4.6 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
STL average 3.4 runs/game in Andre Pallante's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
STL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
STL are 2-3 to the over in Andre Pallante's last 5 starts.
STL are 1-2 to the over in Andre Pallante's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hot

99°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 9 mph SW

APF 103 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 5

PHI — C. Sanchez: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
PHI bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
PHI — C. Sanchez: recent opponents high-K: NYY 25%, BAL 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
STL — Andre Pallante: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
STL — Andre Pallante: recent opponents high-K: CIN 29%, NYY 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

AI Analysis

Two good starters facing average offenses with Philadelphia already at -170, and Pallante's strikeout under against a contact-heavy lineup lands right at expectation rather than beyond it.

TEX @

LAA

9:38 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Cody Bradford L

xERA2.95 (elite)ERA0.00K%25.0 (good)

More Stats

HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs70BB%10.0

LAA vs LHP

wRC+63 (poor)K%26.8 (below avg)HH%34.9 (below avg)Whiff%21.5

Ryan Johnson R

xERA8.46 (poor)ERA10.22K%12.9 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%18.6 (poor)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs78BB%14.5

TEX vs RHP

wRC+68 (poor)K%26.4 (below avg)HH%34.7 (below avg)Whiff%24.8

Bullpens · Last 12

TEX

xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 4.082d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)

LAA

xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 4.712d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTEX-142-1.5 (+115)O9.0 (-118)LAA+120+1.5 (-136)U9.0 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTEX-166-0.5 (-115)O5.5 (+108)LAA+132+0.5 (-113)U5.5 (-140)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UTEX4.5 (-132/+105)LAA3.5 (-145/+114)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UCody Bradford4.5 (-143 / +114)17.5 (-102 / -129)Ryan Johnson4.5 (+130 / -157)15.5 (-113 / -117)

Cody Bradford · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5vs

W4.17055200

Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6@

W4.27813511

Jul 31vs

L4.18836355

Jul 25@

L3.16948188

Jul 19vs

W5.09152311

Jul 11@

L5.07513333

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Ryan Johnson

IPERAKHBB

vs TEX—

home starts4.45.504.74.72.3(3)

Trends · TEX

TEX are 3-4 vs LAA this season (7 games).
TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
TEX are 1-0 in Cody Bradford's last 1 starts.
TEX average 6.0 runs/game in Cody Bradford's last 1 starts.

Over / Under

TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
TEX are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.

Trends · LAA

LAA are 4-3 vs TEX this season (7 games).
LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
LAA are 2-3 in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
LAA are 2-2 in Ryan Johnson's last 4 home starts.
LAA average 2.8 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
LAA average 3.8 runs/game in Ryan Johnson's last 4 home starts.

Over / Under

LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
LAA are 2-3 to the over in Ryan Johnson's last 5 starts.
LAA are 1-2 to the over in Ryan Johnson's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

77°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph SW

APF 103 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 8

TEX — Cody Bradford: small sample (4.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
TEX — Cody Bradford: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
LAA — Ryan Johnson: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
LAA — Ryan Johnson: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
TEX bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
LAA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TEX — Cody Bradford: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
LAA — Ryan Johnson: last start: 78 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

AI Analysis

Johnson is dreadful but Texas counters with a poor 68 wRC+ vs RHP and a tiny-sample starter of their own, so the offsetting uncertainty leaves nothing clean.

COL @

ARI

9:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Tomoyuki Sugano R

xERA6.08 (poor)ERA3.18K%14.5 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%41.1 (below avg)Barrel%14.3 (below avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs87BB%4.3

ARI vs RHP

wRC+94 (below avg)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%38.5 (avg)Whiff%20.5

Mitch Bratt L

xERA3.05 (good)ERA3.18K%19.7 (avg)

More Stats

HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs89BB%16.9

COL vs LHP

wRC+105 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%28.1 (poor)Whiff%21.1

Bullpens · Last 12

COL

xERA 4.53 (below avg)ERA 5.362d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)

ARI

xERA 3.56 (good)ERA 5.262d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCOL+150+1.5 (-136)O9.5 (+102)ARI-178-1.5 (+125)U9.5 (-120)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCOL+135+0.5 (-114)O5.5 (+104)ARI-156-0.5 (-114)U5.5 (-135)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (-138/+114)2.5 (+120/-154)ARI5.5 (+110/+108)2.5 (-140/+110)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UTomoyuki Sugano2.5 (-130 / +108)15.5 (+107 / -143)Mitch Bratt4.5 (+128 / -147)15.5 (-114 / -117)

Tomoyuki Sugano · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5vs

L5.08535233

Jul 31vs

W6.28325011

Jul 24@

W5.19356122

Jul 18vs

W6.17736033

Jun 26@

L5.08528177

Mitch Bratt · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5vs

W7.09291300

Jul 31@

W5.08223411

Jul 25@

L5.09237555

Jul 20vs

L4.28448122

Jul 12@

W3.05803333

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Tomoyuki Sugano

IPERAKHBB

vs ARI5.63.212.06.51.5(2)

at ARI6.22.903.06.01.0(1)

Mitch Bratt

IPERAKHBB

vs COL—

home starts5.61.616.54.52.0(2)

Trends · COL

COL are 2-6 vs ARI this season (8 games).
COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
COL are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
COL are 3-2 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
COL are 3-2 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 away starts.
COL average 5.2 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 starts.
COL average 9.0 runs/game in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

COL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
COL are 0-4 to the over in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 4 starts.

Trends · ARI

ARI are 6-2 vs COL this season (8 games).
ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
ARI are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
ARI are 3-2 in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
ARI are 1-1 in Mitch Bratt's last 2 home starts.
ARI average 4.8 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
ARI average 6.0 runs/game in Mitch Bratt's last 2 home starts.

Over / Under

ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
ARI are 2-3 to the over in Mitch Bratt's last 5 starts.
ARI are 1-2 to the over in Mitch Bratt's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Roof Closed

Flags · 5

COL — Tomoyuki Sugano: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
ARI — Mitch Bratt: BB% 17% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
ARI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
ARI — Mitch Bratt: 2026-07-25: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ARI — Mitch Bratt: high-K outing 2026-08-05 (9 Ks vs avg 4.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat

AI Analysis

Sugano's flattering run total masks a poor 6.08 xERA over his last 3, but he faces a below-average ARI lineup, and Bratt's walk problems against an average Colorado group leave the prices fair on both sides.

TBR @

ATH

9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Nick Martinez R

xERA3.99 (avg)ERA3.06K%16.4 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs79BB%0.0

ATH vs RHP

wRC+72 (poor)K%21.3 (avg)HH%34.8 (below avg)Whiff%22.7

Mason Barnett R

xERA3.11 (good)ERA7.11K%26.3 (good)

More Stats

HH%28.6 (elite)Barrel%11.4 (below avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs6.5PC/gs70BB%8.8

TBR vs RHP

wRC+114 (avg)K%19.9 (above avg)HH%35.4 (avg)Whiff%20.4

Bullpens · Last 12

TBR

xERA 3.34 (good)ERA 3.062d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

ATH

xERA 5.02 (below avg)ERA 6.752d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTBR-162-1.5 (+100)O10.0 (-109)ATH+139+1.5 (-120)U10.0 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTBR-160-0.5 (-118)O5.5 (-122)ATH+128+0.5 (-110)U5.5 (-106)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UTBR5.5 (-106/-115)ATH4.5 (+105/-132)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UNick Martinez3.5 (+113 / -140)17.5 (-110 / -111)Mason Barnett3.5 (+111 / -122)13.5 (-134 / +101)

Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5@

W5.27546000

Jul 31vs

L6.07727066

Jul 25vs

W6.08454000

Jul 20@

W6.08206111

Jul 10vs

W5.17014122

Mason Barnett · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6@

L4.18275355

Jul 30vs

L5.07364133

Jul 25@

L3.1*5424122

Jul 10@

L1.0*2403133

Jul 8@

L1.0*2600200

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Mason Barnett

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR—

home starts5.05.406.04.01.0(1)

Trends · TBR

TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
TBR have won 7 straight.
TBR are 4-1 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
TBR are 4-1 in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.
TBR average 4.4 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
TBR are 2-3 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
TBR are 1-2 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 3 away starts.

Trends · ATH

ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
ATH are 0-2 in Mason Barnett's last 2 starts.
ATH are 0-1 in Mason Barnett's last 1 home starts.
ATH average 4.5 runs/game in Mason Barnett's last 2 starts.
ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Mason Barnett's last 1 home starts.

Over / Under

ATH are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
ATH are 0-2 to the over in Mason Barnett's last 2 starts.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

88°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph SW

APF 108 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 5

ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.02 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
TBR — Nick Martinez: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
TBR — Nick Martinez: 2026-07-31: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATH — Mason Barnett: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-25, 2026-07-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props

AI Analysis

Tampa Bay is the clear side but the ML is already up at -162, and while the Athletics' bullpen is a mess, Barnett's strong underlying numbers keep the runline and total from offering value.

MIL @

SDP

9:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Kyle Harrison L

xERA2.46 (elite)ERA4.63K%31.2 (elite)

More Stats

HH%51.6 (poor)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs70BB%4.2

SDP vs LHP

wRC+102 (avg)K%19.6 (above avg)HH%46.5 (elite)Whiff%20.4

Walker Buehler R

xERA4.02 (avg)ERA3.95K%18.0 (avg)

More Stats

HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs82BB%8.2

MIL vs RHP

wRC+103 (avg)K%21.9 (avg)HH%43.4 (above avg)Whiff%24.4

Bullpens · Last 12

MIL

xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 3.832d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

SDP

xERA 2.15 (elite)ERA 3.002d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalMIL-140-1.5 (+125)O7.5 (-110)SDP+120+1.5 (-140)U7.5 (-108)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalMIL-166-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (+112)SDP+134+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-146)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (+110/+116)2.5 (+114/-145)SDP3.5 (+114/-130)1.5 (-120/-110)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UKyle Harrison5.5 (+114 / -134)15.5 (+105 / -137)Walker Buehler4.5 (+102 / -121)14.5 (-147 / +111)

Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5vs

W5.069101100

Jul 8@

L4.07024033

Jul 3@

W2.27235133

Jun 27vs

L5.09293122

Jun 20@

L6.18574022

Walker Buehler · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6@

W4.07636111

Aug 1vs

W4.17918233

Jul 26@

W5.19274223

Jul 21@

W5.29032522

Jul 11vs

W2.06513444

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Kyle Harrison

IPERAKHBB

vs SDP4.54.955.07.00.5(2)

at SDP—

Walker Buehler

IPERAKHBB

vs MIL—

home starts3.711.352.06.02.3(3)

Trends · MIL

MIL are 2-2 vs SDP this season (4 games).
MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
MIL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
MIL are 2-3 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
MIL are 3-2 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 away starts.
MIL average 3.4 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
MIL average 6.2 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

MIL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
MIL are 2-3 to the over in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
MIL are 1-1 to the over in Kyle Harrison's last 2 away starts.

Trends · SDP

SDP are 2-2 vs MIL this season (4 games).
SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
SDP are 5-0 in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
SDP are 4-1 in Walker Buehler's last 5 home starts.
SDP average 6.4 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
SDP average 5.4 runs/game in Walker Buehler's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
SDP are 3-2 to the over in Walker Buehler's last 5 starts.
SDP are 2-1 to the over in Walker Buehler's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

75°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph W

APF 99 — Neutral

Flags · 10

MIL — Kyle Harrison: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
MIL — Kyle Harrison: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
MIL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SDP bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
MIL — Kyle Harrison: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
MIL — Kyle Harrison: 2026-07-03: 3 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIL — Kyle Harrison: low-K outing 2026-07-08 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
MIL — Kyle Harrison: high-K outing 2026-08-05 (10 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
SDP — Walker Buehler: last start: 76 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
SDP — Walker Buehler: recent opponents low-K: SFG 18%, ARI 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher

AI Analysis

Both starters go short with high hard-contact rates handing the ball to two strong bullpens, and the average offenses keep the total and a fairly-priced side without an edge.

HOU @

SFG✓

9:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Hunter Brown R

xERA2.45 (elite)ERA2.41K%29.0 (elite)

More Stats

HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs96BB%5.8

SFG vs RHP

wRC+97 (avg)K%18.3 (above avg)HH%29.1 (poor)Whiff%18.8

C. Whisenhunt L

xERA6.72 (poor)ERA10.80K%23.7 (good)

More Stats

HH%55.6 (poor)Barrel%13.9 (below avg)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs74BB%15.2

HOU vs LHP

wRC+109 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%36.6 (avg)Whiff%25.3

Bullpens · Last 12

HOU

xERA 1.90 (elite)ERA 1.412d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

SFG

xERA 4.53 (below avg)ERA 4.182d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalHOU-194-1.5 (-113)O8.0 (-105)SFG+168+1.5 (-105)U8.0 (-114)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalHOU-220-0.5 (-140)O4.5 (+100)SFG+172+0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-130)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UHOU4.5 (-115/-110)SFG2.5 (-154/+120)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UHunter Brown5.5 (-120 / +112)17.5 (-120 / -105)C. Whisenhunt——

Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5vs

L6.09383233

Jul 31vs

W5.210456222

Jul 25@

W7.09072000

Jul 19vs

L4.29243644

Jul 10@

L6.09844533

C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 5@

L3.17045344

Jul 31@

L3.17437466

Jul 26vs

L5.07875244

Jul 9vs

W5.28743422

Jun 17@

W5.08526222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

C. Whisenhunt

IPERAKHBB

vs HOU—

home starts5.15.334.74.33.0(3)

Trends · HOU

HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
HOU are 2-3 in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
HOU are 2-2 in Hunter Brown's last 4 away starts.
HOU average 4.8 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
HOU average 4.0 runs/game in Hunter Brown's last 4 away starts.

Over / Under

HOU are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
HOU are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
HOU are 3-2 to the over in Hunter Brown's last 5 starts.
HOU are 2-1 to the over in Hunter Brown's last 3 away starts.

Trends · SFG

SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
SFG are 2-3 in C. Whisenhunt's last 5 starts.
SFG are 1-1 in C. Whisenhunt's last 2 home starts.
SFG average 3.6 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 5 starts.
SFG average 5.5 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 2 home starts.

Over / Under

SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
SFG are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
SFG are 2-2 to the over in C. Whisenhunt's last 4 starts.
SFG are 2-0 to the over in C. Whisenhunt's last 2 home starts.

Weather · Neutral Conditions

61°F, Overcast, Wind 14 mph W

APF 97 — Neutral

Flags · 8

SFG — C. Whisenhunt: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
SFG — C. Whisenhunt: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
SFG — C. Whisenhunt: BB% 15% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
SFG — C. Whisenhunt: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
SFG bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
HOU — Hunter Brown: recent opponents high-K: CHW 28%, TEX 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
SFG — C. Whisenhunt: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
SFG — C. Whisenhunt: recent opponents high-K: LAA 27%, TEX 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups

HOU -1.5 (-113)

KCR @

LAD✓

10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12

Michael Wacha R

xERA3.77 (avg)ERA1.93K%14.7 (below avg)

More Stats

HH%42.4 (below avg)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs96BB%6.7

LAD vs RHP

wRC+86 (below avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)Whiff%21.6

Blake Snell L

xERA3.58 (good)ERA12.00K%27.8 (good)

More Stats

HH%18.2 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs3.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs77BB%11.1

KCR vs LHP

wRC+96 (avg)K%19.6 (above avg)HH%32.5 (below avg)Whiff%23.9

Bullpens · Last 12

KCR

xERA 4.86 (below avg)ERA 6.342d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

LAD

xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 4.502d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalKCR+220+1.5 (+105)O8.5 (+100)LAD-270-1.5 (-120)U8.0 (-101)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalKCR+220+1.5 (-132)O4.5 (-108)LAD-280-1.5 (+102)U4.5 (-120)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR2.5 (-154/+122)1.5 (+114/-145)LAD4.5 (-132/+105)2.5 (-125/-105)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMichael Wacha4.5 (+110 / -130)17.5 (-150 / +105)Blake Snell6.5 (+112 / -142)—

Michael Wacha · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 6vs

L5.29413311

Jul 31@

L6.09975013

Jul 25@

W7.09636222

Jul 20vs

W6.09653211

Jul 9@

L4.210456366

Blake Snell · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 9vs

L3.07756245

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Blake Snell

IPERAKHBB

vs KCR—

home starts5.32.259.33.32.0(3)

Trends · KCR

KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
KCR are 2-3 in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.
KCR average 2.8 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
KCR average 2.0 runs/game in Michael Wacha's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
KCR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
KCR are 1-4 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts.
KCR are 1-2 to the over in Michael Wacha's last 3 away starts.

Trends · LAD

LAD are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
LAD are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
LAD are 0-1 in Blake Snell's last 1 starts.
LAD are 0-1 in Blake Snell's last 1 home starts.
LAD average 2.0 runs/game in Blake Snell's last 1 starts.
LAD average 2.0 runs/game in Blake Snell's last 1 home starts.

Over / Under

LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.

Weather · Hitter Friendly

72°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph WSW

APF 103 — Hitter Friendly

Flags · 6

LAD — Blake Snell: small sample (3.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
LAD — Blake Snell: avg 3.0 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
KCR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
LAD bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
LAD — Blake Snell: 94 days since last start (2026-05-09) — may not be fully stretched out
LAD — Blake Snell: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook

Blake Snell u6.5 Ks (-142)