MLB Game Overviews

Baltimore sits at 140 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 109 over its last 12 with a 50.4 HH%, an established and hot bat against right-handers. Freddy Peralta has a 4.96 xERA over his last 3 starts, has averaged only 4.6 IP/gs, and gave up 7 ER in one of them. With Peralta not going deep and a Tampa bullpen that has run a 4.84 ERA over its last 12, the price undervalues how many runs this lineup should put up against a struggling righty.

Eury Perez carries a 2.03 xERA over his last 3 and has held Cincinnati to a 2.70 ERA across his last 2 meetings, facing a CIN lineup at just 54 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6. Miami is a disaster against left-handers at 18 wRC+ with a 45.5 K% over its last 6, and Nick Lodolo owns a 1.80 ERA at home and 2.41 across 2 starts vs Miami. Both bullpens are fresh and effective (CIN 1.92 xERA, MIA 3.59 over their last 12), so the number should sit lower than 9 given two frozen offenses and matching starter edges.

Mize has handled this CLE lineup with a 2.46 ERA across his last 3 meetings including a scoreless 7-inning start at this park, and CLE sits at just 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a passive 14.3% strikeout rate. SDP brings an established 131 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 (120 over their last 12) and the far better bullpen (2.27 xERA vs 4.23 over the last 12). Priced as a coin flip, SDP is the stronger side on both run prevention and offense.

Cleveland's bats sit at 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 98 over their last 12 — below average in both windows — and Mize has held this exact lineup to 0, 3 and 2 earned runs across his last 3 meetings with them (2.46 ERA, 6.1 IP/gs). Behind him is a San Diego bullpen at 2.27 xERA over its last 12, and Cleveland is 2-8 at home over its last 10. A +105 price on the under implies this cold lineup clears 3.5 more often than not, which overstates what it has done against this arm and this staff.

Hunter Dobbins brings a 2.92 xERA over his last 3 and works deep into games, while Edward Cabrera has a 4.35 xERA with a 50 HH% and 12.9 BB% over his last 3, has not started in 54 days, and owns a 12.23 ERA across his last 3 home starts. Cabrera's home collapse plus rust against a Dobbins edge that goes overlooked because St. Louis sits at 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 makes +142 too long for a game closer to a coin flip.

Henderson has struck out 7, 8, and 7 over his last 3 starts on a 32.4% K rate, and his outs line of 16.5 gives him the innings to clear this. LAD sits at a moderate 21.2% strikeout rate vs RHP over their last 6, not contact-heavy enough to derail an arm missing bats at this level. At plus money the market is underpricing a pitcher who has topped this number in every recent outing.