AI Picks · 6 Bets · Oct 3
2u Picks
1u Picks
ATL Team Total u3.5 (-140)
ATL @ LAD · 4:00 PM ET
ATL's offense is running cold against lefties, posting a below-average 82 wRC+ over its last 6 games vs LHP (94 over the last 12), and today they face Tarik Skubal, who has been dominant with a 2.26 xERA and 1.89 ERA over his last 3 starts, including back-to-back outings of 0 earned runs. Skubal's own bullpen is fresh with no stress over the last two days, removing the escape valve a shaky ATL offense would need late. The market has ATL's total priced at only 55% to stay under 3.5, which undersells how thoroughly Skubal has shut down opponents recently and how poor ATL has looked against left-handed pitching.
Found at 8:20 AM ET
Tarik Skubal o6.5 Strikeouts (-119)
ATL @ LAD · 4:00 PM ET
Skubal has averaged 7.3 strikeouts over his last 3 starts (9, 3, 10) and carries a 34.8% Whiff rate that outpaces his already-elite 30.6% K%, suggesting his strikeout output still has room to climb. ATL's lineup is striking out at an elevated 24.6% clip over its last 6 games vs lefties, and Skubal is averaging 6.3 innings per start with his last outing going 7 full innings on just 75 pitches, giving him the length to reach this number. The 53% no-vig price undervalues a pitcher who has topped this line in two of his last three outings against a strikeout-prone opposing lineup.
Found at 8:20 AM ET
MIL Team Total o3.5 (-140)
SDP @ MIL · 8:30 PM ET
MIL is scoring well against lefties right now at 119 wRC+ over its last 6 games, backed by a strong home run environment at 5.4 runs per game over its last 10 and last 5. Robbie Ray has a 5.65 ERA over his last 3 starts with a 10.9% walk rate, and his one outing that went well (3.1 IP) was actually the shortest, showing little control over length. Clearing 4 runs is well within what MIL's lineup has been doing recently, and the 56% no-vig price undervalues how often MIL has been reaching this mark at home lately.
Found at 8:20 AM ET
J. Misiorowski u8.5 Strikeouts (+120)
SDP @ MIL · 8:30 PM ET
Misiorowski has averaged just 4.4 innings per start over his last 3 outings (5.0, 3.0, 5.1 IP) on low pitch counts (82, 44, 68), and his strikeout totals in those starts were 7, 4 and 5 - he has not come within 1.5 strikeouts of this number in any of his last three outings. Despite an elite 32.6% K rate, the length simply has not been there to reach 8.5 punchouts, and nothing on his recent usage pattern suggests a sudden jump to 6-plus innings today. The 50% no-vig price treats this as a coin flip when his actual recent box scores argue clearly for the under.
Found at 8:20 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
Parker Messick u17.5 Outs (-140)
CHW @ CLE · 1:01 PM ET
Messick has averaged just 4.7 innings per start over his last 3 outings (6.0, 5.0, 3.0 IP), and only one of those three outings actually cleared 17.5 outs. His most recent start lasted only 3.0 innings on 64 pitches, a clear marker of recent fragility or a quick hook. CLE's bullpen carries no stress over the past two days and is fully capable of covering extra innings, so there is no incentive to stretch him further than his recent pattern suggests, and the 55% no-vig price still leaves room given two of his last three starts fell well short of this number.
Found at 8:20 AM ET
CHW Team Total o2.5 (-145)
CHW @ CLE · 1:01 PM ET
CHW's offense is elite against lefties right now, posting a 160 wRC+ over its last 6 games and 147 over its last 12 vs LHP, a consistent two-window read rather than a one-week spike. They've averaged 9.2 runs per game over their last 10 and 5.3 on the road over their last 5. Even accounting for Messick's history of limiting them to 1-3 earned runs in three starts this season, clearing 2.5 runs is a modest bar for a lineup scoring at this rate, and the 56% no-vig price undersells how hot this offense has been.
Found at 8:20 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
CHW @ 
CLE✓1:00 PM · Progressive FieldPitcher Friendly
CHW @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
David Sandlin RO
xERA3.95 (avg)ERA4.76 (below)K%23.9 (good)Whiff%25.0 (good)BB%4.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs76
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+151 (elite)K%12.5 (elite)Whiff%15.5 (elite)BB%17.7 (elite)HH%38.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+124 (above)K%16.2 (above)Whiff%18.7 (above)BB%12.0 (elite)HH%39.4 (avg)
Parker Messick L
xERA3.60 (good)ERA3.21 (good)K%24.2 (good)Whiff%21.8 (avg)BB%3.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%52.3 (poor)Barrel%6.8 (good)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs82
CHW vs LHP
L6
wRC+160 (elite)K%17.5 (above)Whiff%22.2 (avg)BB%3.8 (poor)HH%45.9 (elite)
L12
wRC+147 (elite)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%22.1 (avg)BB%11.2 (elite)HH%47.8 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 4.48 (avg)ERA 3.62 (good)
CLE
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 2.83 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+115+1.5 (-240)O5.5 (+116)CLE-142-1.5 (+182)U4.5 (+111)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+124+0.5 (-128)O3.5 (-128)CLE-154-0.5 (-102)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW2.5 (-145/+116)1.5 (+100/-130)CLE3.5 (-111/-115)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavid Sandlin——Parker Messick6.5 (+100 / -116)17.5 (+112 / -140)
David Sandlin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24 '26@ 
W6.08575011
W6.08575011Sep 18 '26vs 
L4.07447155
L4.07447155Sep 13 '26@ 
L5.27052003
L5.27052003Aug 7 '26vs L5.1*9647266
L5.1*9647266Jun 26 '26vs W6.09163311
W6.09163311Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ L3.06426111
L3.06426111Sep 22 '26@ 
W5.09655111
W5.09655111Sep 16 '26vs W6.08687033
W6.08687033Sep 11 '26@ 
W5.19553211
W5.19553211Sep 5 '26vs L6.0103127233
L6.0103127233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Parker Messick
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW6.03.00good6.35.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 16 '26vs W6.08687033
W6.08687033Aug 7 '26@ W7.09784122
W7.09784122Jul 4 '26vs L5.010035311
L5.010035311home starts6.03.50good8.36.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 16 '26vs W6.08687033
W6.08687033Sep 5 '26vs L6.0103127233
L6.0103127233Aug 30 '26vs W6.010555211
W6.010555211Trends · CHW
- CHW are 7-6 vs CLE this season (13 games).
- CHW are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-3 in David Sandlin's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 in David Sandlin's last 3 away starts.
- CHW average 9.2 runs/game in David Sandlin's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 5.3 runs/game in David Sandlin's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 2-1 to the over in David Sandlin's last 3 starts.
- CHW are 1-1 to the over in David Sandlin's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 6-7 vs CHW this season (13 games).
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 3-2 in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Parker Messick's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-1 to the over in Parker Messick's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
64°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph NE
APF 97 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 8
- OPENER: CHW start Hagen Smith (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.2 IP (longest 2.0)), with David Sandlin (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — CLE's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- CHW — David Sandlin: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-07, 2026-06-07
- CHW — David Sandlin: 2026-09-18: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.75 ERA equivalent
- CHW — David Sandlin: recent opponents high-K: STL 32%, DET 26%
- CLE — Parker Messick: last start: 64 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- CLE — Parker Messick: low-K outing 2026-09-27 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- CLE — Parker Messick: recent opponents low-K: CHW 18%, KCR 17%
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
Parker Messick u17.5 Outs (-140)
Messick has averaged just 4.7 innings per start over his last 3 outings (6.0, 5.0, 3.0 IP), and only one of those three outings actually cleared 17.5 outs. His most recent start lasted only 3.0 innings on 64 pitches, a clear marker of recent fragility or a quick hook. CLE's bullpen carries no stress over the past two days and is fully capable of covering extra innings, so there is no incentive to stretch him further than his recent pattern suggests, and the 55% no-vig price still leaves room given two of his last three starts fell well short of this number.
CHW Team Total o2.5 (-145)
CHW's offense is elite against lefties right now, posting a 160 wRC+ over its last 6 games and 147 over its last 12 vs LHP, a consistent two-window read rather than a one-week spike. They've averaged 9.2 runs per game over their last 10 and 5.3 on the road over their last 5. Even accounting for Messick's history of limiting them to 1-3 earned runs in three starts this season, clearing 2.5 runs is a modest bar for a lineup scoring at this rate, and the 56% no-vig price undersells how hot this offense has been.
ATL @ 
LAD✓4:00 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHot
ATL @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
JR Ritchie RO
xERA4.74 (below)ERA6.46 (poor)K%21.4 (avg)Whiff%19.5 (avg)BB%10.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%10.6 (avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs85
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+97 (avg)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%24.9 (avg)BB%10.2 (above)HH%41.1 (above)
L12
wRC+129 (above)K%19.8 (above)Whiff%23.5 (avg)BB%11.3 (elite)HH%40.9 (above)
Tarik Skubal L
xERA2.26 (elite)ERA1.89 (elite)K%30.6 (elite)Whiff%34.8 (elite)BB%4.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%23.4 (elite)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs84
ATL vs LHP
L6
wRC+82 (below)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%23.4 (avg)BB%9.2 (avg)HH%32.6 (below)
L12
wRC+94 (below)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%24.2 (avg)BB%6.9 (below)HH%36.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 4.52 (below)ERA 3.97 (avg)2d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 1.65 (elite)ERA 1.84 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL+190+1.5 (-105)O8.5 (+100)LAD-212-1.5 (-101)U8.5 (-117)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL+194+1.5 (-154)O4.5 (-110)LAD-250-1.5 (+118)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL3.5 (+114/-140)1.5 (+105/-135)LAD4.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJR Ritchie——Tarik Skubal6.5 (-138 / +120)17.5 (-195 / +147)
JR Ritchie · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ 
L5.28727244
L5.28727244Sep 22 '26vs 
L5.08684311
L5.08684311Sep 16 '26@ 
L4.28257266
L4.28257266Aug 2 '26vs 
W4.08144322
W4.08144322Jul 21 '26vs 
L3.2*6843333
L3.2*6843333Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
W7.075103000
W7.075103000Sep 19 '26vs W5.08638244
W5.08638244Sep 14 '26@ W7.09093100
W7.09093100Sep 8 '26vs W7.19454222
W7.19454222Sep 3 '26vs W5.2102610122
W5.2102610122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL7.02.57elite7.05.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 29 '26@ L7.09175022
L7.09175022home starts5.84.16avg4.77.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19 '26vs W5.08638244
W5.08638244Sep 8 '26vs W7.19454222
W7.19454222Sep 3 '26vs W5.2102610122
W5.2102610122Trends · ATL
- ATL are 5-1 vs LAD this season (6 games).
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 1-4 in JR Ritchie's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 0-5 in JR Ritchie's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 3.4 runs/game in JR Ritchie's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.4 runs/game in JR Ritchie's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 1-2 to the over in JR Ritchie's last 3 starts.
- ATL are 1-1 to the over in JR Ritchie's last 2 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 1-5 vs ATL this season (6 games).
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 5-0 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 4.4 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 4.4 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 1-4 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-2 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
102°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 5 mph ESE
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- OPENER: ATL start Dylan Dodd (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.1 IP (longest 2.0)), with JR Ritchie (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — LAD's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
- ATL bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g)
- ATL — JR Ritchie: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-21, 2026-07-18
- ATL — JR Ritchie: 2026-09-16: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.36 ERA equivalent
- ATL — JR Ritchie: low-K outing 2026-09-27 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: last start: 75 pitches over 7.0 IP news ↗
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: 2026-09-19: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: CIN 38%, SFG 30%, SFG 30%
ATL Team Total u3.5 (-140)
ATL's offense is running cold against lefties, posting a below-average 82 wRC+ over its last 6 games vs LHP (94 over the last 12), and today they face Tarik Skubal, who has been dominant with a 2.26 xERA and 1.89 ERA over his last 3 starts, including back-to-back outings of 0 earned runs. Skubal's own bullpen is fresh with no stress over the last two days, removing the escape valve a shaky ATL offense would need late. The market has ATL's total priced at only 55% to stay under 3.5, which undersells how thoroughly Skubal has shut down opponents recently and how poor ATL has looked against left-handed pitching.
Tarik Skubal o6.5 Strikeouts (-119)
Skubal has averaged 7.3 strikeouts over his last 3 starts (9, 3, 10) and carries a 34.8% Whiff rate that outpaces his already-elite 30.6% K%, suggesting his strikeout output still has room to climb. ATL's lineup is striking out at an elevated 24.6% clip over its last 6 games vs lefties, and Skubal is averaging 6.3 innings per start with his last outing going 7 full innings on just 75 pitches, giving him the length to reach this number. The 53% no-vig price undervalues a pitcher who has topped this line in two of his last three outings against a strikeout-prone opposing lineup.
NYY @ 
TBR6:30 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
NYY @ TBRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Gerrit Cole R
xERA3.97 (avg)ERA5.06 (below)K%27.3 (good)Whiff%14.2 (below)BB%4.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs91
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+121 (above)K%23.6 (avg)Whiff%19.5 (above)BB%7.4 (below)HH%43.6 (above)
L12
wRC+86 (below)K%26.8 (below)Whiff%19.9 (above)BB%7.8 (below)HH%36.7 (avg)
Drew Rasmussen R
xERA2.44 (elite)ERA0.96 (elite)K%25.4 (good)Whiff%26.9 (good)BB%7.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.2 (elite)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs94
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+159 (elite)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%29.3 (poor)BB%11.6 (elite)HH%50.0 (elite)
L12
wRC+103 (avg)K%26.6 (below)Whiff%28.2 (poor)BB%9.6 (above)HH%39.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 3.27 (good)
TBR
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 2.54 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY+114+1.5 (-199)O7.0 (-105)TBR-130-1.5 (+172)U6.5 (+114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+124+0.5 (-132)O3.5 (-122)TBR-148-0.5 (+102)U3.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY3.5 (+116/-140)1.5 (+100/-130)TBR3.5 (-106/-120)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole5.5 (+134 / +123)16.5 (-136 / +104)Drew Rasmussen6.5 (+115 / -135)16.5 (-120 / +108)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26vs W5.210583322
W5.210583322Sep 18 '26@ 
W6.09064022
W6.09064022Sep 12 '26vs 
L4.17749055
L4.17749055Sep 6 '26@ L7.08436044
L7.08436044Sep 1 '26@ 
W5.19058133
W5.19058133Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '26@ W6.2114111311
W6.2114111311Sep 17 '26vs 
W5.07634200
W5.07634200Sep 11 '26vs 
W7.09248011
W7.09248011Sep 5 '26@ 
W7.09773011
W7.09773011Aug 30 '26vs W6.09764222
W6.09764222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gerrit Cole
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.82.60elite5.34.02.3(3)
at TBR6.14.43avg6.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26vs W5.210583322
W5.210583322Jul 8 '26@ L6.19767133
L6.19767133May 22 '26vs L6.07222300
L6.07222300Drew Rasmussen
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY5.14.12avg6.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '26@ W6.2114111311
W6.2114111311Jul 9 '26vs L2.16127066
L2.16127066May 24 '26@ L7.09265100
L7.09265100home starts6.01.50elite4.35.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 17 '26vs W5.07634200
W5.07634200Sep 11 '26vs W7.09248011
W7.09248011Aug 30 '26vs W6.09764222
W6.09764222Trends · NYY
- NYY are 6-8 vs TBR this season (14 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 6.0 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 5.2 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 4-1 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-0 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 8-6 vs NYY this season (14 games).
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 5-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.2 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-1 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 7
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: K% 27.3 (last 3 starts) runs well above what Whiff% 14.2 supports
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: last start: 105 pitches over 5.2 IP news ↗
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: 2026-09-12: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.23 ERA equivalent
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: 11 days since last start (2026-09-22) news ↗
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: last start: 114 pitches over 6.2 IP news ↗
- TBR — Drew Rasmussen: high-K outing 2026-09-22 (11 Ks vs avg 6.0 over his last 3)
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
AI Analysis
Rasmussen's 2.44 xERA over his last 3 starts is far better than Cole's 3.97, and TBR's own bullpen (2.66 xERA) is sharper than NYY's, but Cole has actually held this same TBR lineup to 0, 3, and 2 runs across three starts this season, the most recent just 10 days ago, which offsets his shaky overall contact numbers (48.9% hard-hit rate, 11.1% barrel) and keeps the moneyline, run line, and TBR's team total all fairly priced rather than mispriced. The 7.0 game total already reflects a mismatch between an elite arm and a hittable one, so there's no gap to the posted number either direction. On the props, Cole's 5.5 strikeout line already prices in that his 27.3% K% over his last 3 is running well above a 14.2% whiff rate and due to regress, and his 16.5 outs line matches his actual recent depth (13, 18, and 17 outs in his last three). Rasmussen's 6.5 K line is inflated by one 11-strikeout outlier two starts ago sandwiched between outings of just 4 and 3 Ks, and his 16.5 outs line is muddled by a 2.1-inning disaster the last time he faced this exact NYY lineup, so neither of his props clears with confidence either.
SDP @ 
MIL✓8:30 PM · American Family Field (Roof Closed)
SDP @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Robbie Ray L
xERA4.09 (avg)ERA5.65 (poor)K%20.3 (avg)Whiff%20.3 (avg)BB%10.9 (below)
More Stats
HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%2.3 (elite)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs89
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+119 (above)K%19.6 (above)Whiff%14.9 (elite)BB%7.8 (below)HH%44.7 (above)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (above)BB%10.3 (above)HH%38.7 (avg)
J. Misiorowski R
xERA2.28 (elite)ERA0.00 (elite)K%32.6 (elite)Whiff%36.4 (elite)BB%6.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.5 (good)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs65
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+126 (above)K%22.5 (avg)Whiff%23.9 (avg)BB%8.6 (avg)HH%39.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+135 (elite)K%21.5 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)BB%8.0 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 4.14 (avg)ERA 2.81 (elite)
MIL
xERA 3.77 (avg)ERA 2.44 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+178+1.5 (-125)O7.0 (-105)MIL-210-1.5 (+105)U6.5 (+118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+200+0.5 (+118)O3.5 (-132)MIL-260-0.5 (-154)U3.5 (+102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP2.5 (-120/-104)1.5 (+150/-195)MIL3.5 (-145/+114)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URobbie Ray3.5 (-148 / +117)11.5 (-110 / -120)J. Misiorowski8.5 (+124 / -136)17.5 (-125 / +103)
Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 23 '26@ W3.18427111
W3.18427111Sep 16 '26@ 
W6.08863233
W6.08863233Sep 11 '26@ W5.09454455
W5.09454455Sep 5 '26vs L2.16815455
L2.16815455Aug 30 '26@ L6.09343311
L6.09343311J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs W5.16852200
W5.16852200Sep 20 '26@ 
W3.04441000
W3.04441000Sep 15 '26@ 
W5.08275100
W5.08275100Sep 8 '26vs W6.19394211
W6.19394211Sep 2 '26@ W4.09255455
W4.09255455SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Robbie Ray
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL4.74.50below2.74.33.3(3)
at MIL5.05.40poor0.06.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12 '26vs W4.08442322
W4.08442322Aug 24 '25@ W5.08006433
W5.08006433Apr 21 '25vs W5.09245322
W5.09245322J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP7.00.00elite10.04.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 13 '26vs L7.093104000
L7.093104000home starts5.70.52elite6.73.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs W5.16852200
W5.16852200Sep 8 '26vs W6.19394211
W6.19394211Aug 21 '26vs W6.09664200
W6.09664200Trends · SDP
- SDP are 4-2 vs MIL this season (6 games).
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have won 4 straight.
- SDP are 3-2 in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 4-1 in Robbie Ray's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 5.2 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 6.0 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 3-2 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-1 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-4 vs SDP this season (6 games).
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL have won 5 straight.
- MIL are 5-0 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 5-0 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 1-4 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 0-2 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- SDP — Robbie Ray: 2026-09-11: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.70 ERA equivalent
- MIL — J. Misiorowski: last start: 68 pitches over 5.1 IP news ↗
- MIL — J. Misiorowski: recent opponents high-K: PIT 27%, BAL 29%, STL 32%
MIL Team Total o3.5 (-140)
MIL is scoring well against lefties right now at 119 wRC+ over its last 6 games, backed by a strong home run environment at 5.4 runs per game over its last 10 and last 5. Robbie Ray has a 5.65 ERA over his last 3 starts with a 10.9% walk rate, and his one outing that went well (3.1 IP) was actually the shortest, showing little control over length. Clearing 4 runs is well within what MIL's lineup has been doing recently, and the 56% no-vig price undervalues how often MIL has been reaching this mark at home lately.
J. Misiorowski u8.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Misiorowski has averaged just 4.4 innings per start over his last 3 outings (5.0, 3.0, 5.1 IP) on low pitch counts (82, 44, 68), and his strikeout totals in those starts were 7, 4 and 5 - he has not come within 1.5 strikeouts of this number in any of his last three outings. Despite an elite 32.6% K rate, the length simply has not been there to reach 8.5 punchouts, and nothing on his recent usage pattern suggests a sudden jump to 6-plus innings today. The 50% no-vig price treats this as a coin flip when his actual recent box scores argue clearly for the under.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.