MLB Game Overviews

New York is elite vs RHP at 130 wRC+ over their last 6 and 143 over their last 12, and King has been battered by this exact lineup — 12.00 ERA across his last 2 meetings (8 ER, then 4 ER) and a 24.00 ERA in his one start at this park. King's shiny 2.94 xERA over his last 3 is masking a specific, repeated failure against a lineup fully capable of clearing four runs on its own.

Burns carries a 2.20 xERA over his last 3 with a 32.4 K% and a 1.00 ERA across his last 3 home starts, while STL sits at just 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 98 over their last 12. St. Louis has averaged 3.0 runs across Liberatore's recent starts, and at plus money the market is treating this weak, contact-neutral lineup as more dangerous against an elite arm than the matchup supports.

Messick owns a 2.34 xERA over his last 3 with a 1.89 ERA across his last 3 home starts, and San Francisco is at just 62 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and an alarming 47 over their last 12 — an established, not streaky, inability to hit left-handed pitching. At plus money on the under, the price undervalues how thoroughly this offense has struggled against exactly this profile.

Milwaukee has cratered to 59 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 and 80 over their last 12, and they draw Gilbert, who owns a 3.49 xERA over his last 3, goes deep at 6.6 IP/gs, and struck out 10 of them in his only meeting. A slumping lineup against a strong, length-eating arm makes four-plus runs a stretch the price hasn't fully accounted for.