AI Picks · 13 Bets · Aug 15
TBR Team Total o3.5 (-128)
Tampa Bay sits at 161 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 144 over its last 12 — an established elite offense, not a fluke — against Bradish, who carries a 4.41 xERA, 11.6% barrel and 39.5% hard-hit over his last 3. Anything he escapes runs into a Baltimore bullpen at 5.90 ERA over its last 12. Four-plus runs for this lineup in this matchup is priced short of its real probability.
Found at 3:56 AM ET
SDP ML (+105)
Cantillo has been demolished on contact — 64.3% hard-hit and 21.4% barrel over his last 3, lasting just 3.3 IP/gs — and he draws a San Diego lineup at 206 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 (130 over its last 12), backed by a bullpen at 2.39 xERA over its last 12. Vasquez owns a 2.34 xERA over his last 3 against a Cleveland lineup at 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 that will hand off to a bullpen sitting at 5.00 xERA. Getting the stronger team at a plus price is the mispricing.
Found at 3:56 AM ET
Joey Cantillo u14.5 Outs (+130)
Cantillo has averaged 3.3 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 1.0-inning outing last time, and he faces a San Diego lineup at 206 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 while allowing 64.3% hard contact over that span. A line at 14.5 outs asks for nearly five innings he has not reached, and the plus price on the under is well below his true likelihood of an early exit.
Found at 3:56 AM ET
Jesus Luzardo o6.5 Ks (-109)
Luzardo has a 28.6% K rate over his last 3 with 8 strikeouts per start and 7.1 IP/gs, and Minnesota strikes out at 27.0% vs LHP over its last 6, so both the rate and the length line (18.5 outs) support the number. A strong swing-and-miss arm going deep against a high-whiff lineup makes 6.5 an under-set total near even money.
Found at 3:56 AM ET
SDP Team Total o3.5 (-136)
Joey Cantillo is a batting-practice arm right now — 64.3% hard contact and 21.4% barrels over his last 3 with just 3.3 IP/gs, a 4.82 xERA, and a 1-inning outing last time. San Diego is crushing left-handed pitching at 222 wRC+ over its last 6 and a still-elite 125 over its last 12, and Cantillo's early hooks expose a Cleveland bullpen at 4.95 xERA and 6.15 ERA. Even regressing the heater, this offense clears 3.5 against a pitcher this hittable and a relief corps this weak.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
MIN Team Total o3.5 (-111)
Minnesota mashes left-handed pitching at 152 wRC+ over their last 6 and 140 over their last 12 — an elite, established read, not a fluke — and they host Jesus Luzardo at Target Field, a hitter's park where they've averaged 6.2 runs behind their starter. Even against a quality arm, a lineup this locked in vs lefties clearing 4 runs at this price is the edge.
Found at 4:21 PM ET
J. Misiorowski o8.5 Ks (-102)
Misiorowski has struck out 12, 10, and 9 over his last 3 starts on a 48.4% K rate, including 12 in his one start against the Dodgers this year. His outs line of 17.5 matches his 6.0 IP/gs, and even Los Angeles at a moderate 21.7% K rate over its last 6 cannot dent a strikeout arm operating at this level — the number sits below his floor over three straight starts.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
MIL ML (-123)
Misiorowski brings a 1.41 xERA and 48.4% K rate over his last 3 against a Dodgers lineup whose 105 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 masks a 72 mark over its last 12 — a heater against the exact arm that struck them out 12 times in his lone meeting. Justin Wrobleski counters with an 8.15 xERA, 46.8% hard contact, and 19.1% barrels over his last 3, giving Milwaukee's bullpen a 2.13 ERA to protect. At -123 the market discounts how lopsided the run-prevention edge is.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
BOS ML (-120)
Sonny Gray owns this lineup — 2.24 ERA across his last 3 starts vs Pittsburgh with 8, 6, and 7 strikeouts, backed by a 2.61 xERA over his last 3 overall. Jared Jones has been a fire hazard at a 9.69 ERA over his last 3 including 8 earned in 3 innings last time, a 4.73 xERA and 44.4% hard contact, and Pittsburgh has scored just 2.0 runs per home game behind its starters going 0-5. At -120 the price treats this as a coin flip when the starting-pitching gap is enormous.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
Sonny Gray o5.5 Ks (+110)
Gray has struck out 8, 6, and 7 across his last 3 starts against Pittsburgh specifically, going at least 6.1 innings each time, and his outs line of 17.5 gives him the length to get there again. His 21.5% K rate over his last 3 meets a Pittsburgh lineup at a moderate 20.5% K rate over its last 6, and at plus money the market is underpricing a strikeout number he has cleared in three straight looks at this exact opponent.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
Reid Detmers o6.5 Ks (+134)
Detmers carries a 32.8% K rate over his last 3 with 9, 5 and 6 strikeouts, and Kansas City whiffs at 25.2% vs LHP over its last 6, so both signals point up. At plus money against a lineup that misses this often, the over is priced as a coin flip when his rate and matchup make it better than that.
Found at 3:56 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
CHW Team Total u3.5 (-115)
Troy Melton has been elite — 2.49 xERA and 0.00 ERA over his last 3, and a 1.38 ERA across 2 starts against the White Sox with a 1.05 ERA at home over 3 starts. Chicago's 128 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 is a mirage against a 97 mark over its last 12, a heater ripe to regress against exactly the kind of arm that has already shut them down. The line is priced off the recent surge rather than the true level of this lineup against a pitcher who owns them.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-128)
Michael McGreevy is getting hammered — a 6.77 xERA over his last 3 with 53.5% hard contact, just 3.9 IP/gs, and a 7.89 ERA across 3 starts against the Cubs. Chicago sits at 136 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (108 over its last 12) and has scored 8.0 runs per home game behind its starters, and McGreevy's early exits hand the ball to a Cardinals bullpen at 4.57 xERA. The 4.5 line undersells what a strong lineup does to a pitcher surrendering hard contact at this rate in a short outing.
Found at 10:16 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
CHW @ 
DET✓1:10 PM · Comerica Park
CHW @ DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Anthony Kay L
xERA3.46 (good)ERA2.55K%18.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.6 (below avg)Barrel%10.7 (avg)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs86BB%4.0
DET vs LHP · last 6
wRC+107 (avg)12+130K%22.4 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)Whiff%19.8
Troy Melton R
xERA2.49 (elite)ERA0.00K%19.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%28.8 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs92BB%7.0
CHW vs RHP · last 6
wRC+128 (above avg)12+97K%22.8 (avg)HH%39.6 (avg)Whiff%20.4
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.57 (good)ERA 3.842d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.402d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+127+1.5 (-179)O7.5 (-118)DET-134-1.5 (+152)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+135+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-102)DET-160-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-111/-115)1.5 (-120/-110)DET3.5 (-148/+120)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAnthony Kay4.5 (+115 / -141)15.5 (+120 / -153)Troy Melton5.5 (+116 / -142)17.5 (-130 / +102)
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W5.18646133
W5.18646133Aug 8vs 
W6.08346122
W6.08346122Aug 2@ 
W6.18937100
W6.18937100Jul 28vs 
L5.19775133
L5.19775133Jul 22@ 
W5.07945222
W5.07945222Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L4.18749133
L4.18749133Aug 9@ 
W6.09254101
W6.09254101Aug 4@ 
W7.09743200
W7.09743200Jul 28vs 
W7.09253200
W7.09253200Jul 23vs 
W5.09055422
W5.09055422SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs DET5.03.563.56.01.0(2)
at DET5.15.294.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W5.18646133
W5.18646133May 30vs W5.08436111
W5.08436111Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.72.633.35.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L4.18749133
L4.18749133Jun 20vs W6.08451311
W6.08451311May 29@ L7.08916111
L7.08916111home starts5.42.804.75.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L4.18749133
L4.18749133Jul 28vs W7.09253200
W7.09253200Jul 23vs W5.09055422
W5.09055422Trends · CHW
- CHW are 5-3 vs DET this season (8 games).
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 4-1 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 3-2 in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 6.6 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 6.6 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 3-2 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 2-1 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 3 away starts.
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-5 vs CHW this season (8 games).
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 5-0 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 4-1 in Troy Melton's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 6.2 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET average 5.8 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 2-3 to the over in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-1 to the over in Troy Melton's last 3 home starts.
Weather
80°F, Wind 7 mph SSE
Flags · 3
- CHW — Anthony Kay: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CHW bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- WEATHER: wind blowing IN 7 mph from the SSE — suppresses the over and HR props
CHW Team Total u3.5 (-115)
Troy Melton has been elite — 2.49 xERA and 0.00 ERA over his last 3, and a 1.38 ERA across 2 starts against the White Sox with a 1.05 ERA at home over 3 starts. Chicago's 128 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 is a mirage against a 97 mark over its last 12, a heater ripe to regress against exactly the kind of arm that has already shut them down. The line is priced off the recent surge rather than the true level of this lineup against a pitcher who owns them.
STL @ 
CHC✓2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
STL @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Michael McGreevy R
xERA6.77 (poor)ERA9.26K%18.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%53.5 (poor)Barrel%11.6 (below avg)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs98BB%8.5
CHC vs RHP · last 6
wRC+136 (elite)12+108K%20.9 (avg)HH%38.4 (avg)Whiff%16.3
Matthew Boyd L
xERA4.89 (below avg)ERA2.61K%13.2 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%27.7 (elite)Barrel%9.2 (avg)IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs96BB%7.2
STL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+114 (avg)12+100K%20.3 (avg)HH%31.9 (below avg)Whiff%23.4
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.57 (below avg)ERA 3.73
CHC
xERA 3.56 (good)ERA 3.322d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-1120-3.5 (-142)O12.5 (-117)CHC+1100+3.5 (+124)U12.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+138+0.5 (-106)O5.5 (+112)CHC-174-0.5 (-122)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (-128/+100)1.5 (-145/+114)CHC4.5 (-128/+105)2.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael McGreevy3.5 (+104 / -130)14.5 (-145 / +118)Matthew Boyd4.5 (-106 / -110)17.5 (-110 / -110)
Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W6.010265203
W6.010265203Aug 9vs 
W5.210248233
W5.210248233Aug 3@ W4.19154122
W4.19154122Jul 28vs L1.26328277
L1.26328277Jul 23vs 
L6.19537344
L6.19537344Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L5.19725377
L5.19725377Aug 9@ W7.09835322
W7.09835322Aug 3vs 
W6.29239145
W6.29239145Jul 29@ L7.08954200
L7.08954200Jul 24@ 
W7.09747311
W7.09747311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael McGreevy
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC3.87.893.76.32.0(3)
at CHC5.12.654.55.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W6.010265203
W6.010265203Jul 28vs L1.26328277
L1.26328277Sep 27@ L4.28836233
L4.28836233Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.75.263.35.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L5.19725377
L5.19725377Jul 29@ L7.08954200
L7.08954200Aug 8@ L5.09237033
L5.09237033home starts5.86.243.05.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L5.19725377
L5.19725377Aug 3vs W6.29239145
W6.29239145Jul 18vs 
W6.09143111
W6.09143111Trends · STL
- STL are 5-6 vs CHC this season (11 games).
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 6.6 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 5.6 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 4-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 6-5 vs STL this season (11 games).
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 4-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 5-0 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.
- CHC average 6.2 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 8.0 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 2-3 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-1 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph S
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- STL — Michael McGreevy: HH% 53% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL — Michael McGreevy: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- STL — Michael McGreevy: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-128)
Michael McGreevy is getting hammered — a 6.77 xERA over his last 3 with 53.5% hard contact, just 3.9 IP/gs, and a 7.89 ERA across 3 starts against the Cubs. Chicago sits at 136 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (108 over its last 12) and has scored 8.0 runs per home game behind its starters, and McGreevy's early exits hand the ball to a Cardinals bullpen at 4.57 xERA. The 4.5 line undersells what a strong lineup does to a pitcher surrendering hard contact at this rate in a short outing.
NYY @ 
TOR3:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
NYY @ TORMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Cam Schlittler R
xERA2.66 (elite)ERA3.31K%39.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.8 (below avg)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs82BB%9.4
TOR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+126 (above avg)12+98K%17.9 (above avg)HH%32.4 (below avg)Whiff%15.9
Braydon Fisher
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYY
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 3.892d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 3.882d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-120-1.5 (+172)O6.5 (-101)TOR+110+1.5 (-225)U6.5 (-125)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-200-0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-140)TOR+162+0.5 (+100)U3.5 (+108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY4.5 (+108/-135)2.5 (+120/-154)TOR2.5 (-145/+122)1.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCam Schlittler6.5 (+120 / -138)18.5 (+145 / +175)Braydon Fisher——
Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ L3.26853211
L3.26853211Aug 9vs 
L7.096113011
L7.096113011Aug 3vs L3.08364544
L3.08364544Jul 29@ L6.19382111
L6.19382111Jul 24@ 
W7.199123000
W7.199123000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cam Schlittler
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.42.226.35.72.7(3)
at TOR5.12.375.05.33.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ L3.26853211
L3.26853211Jun 13@ W7.010176411
W7.010176411May 20vs L6.010678222
L6.010678222Jul 22@ W5.09037322
W5.09037322Trends · NYY
- NYY are 4-4 vs TOR this season (8 games).
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 1-4 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 3.6 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-2 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 4-4 vs NYY this season (8 games).
- TOR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
74°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph E
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- TOR — Braydon Fisher: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- NYY bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: 2026-08-03: 4 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
COL @ SFG4:05 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
COL @ SFGMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Michael Lorenzen R
xERA9.12 (poor)ERA9.53K%4.9 (poor)
More Stats
HH%45.1 (poor)Barrel%11.8 (below avg)IP/gs3.8 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs62BB%11.5
SFG vs RHP · last 6
wRC+66 (poor)12+105K%22.2 (avg)HH%35.8 (avg)Whiff%24.5
Logan Webb R
xERA2.25 (elite)ERA1.35K%18.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%29.3 (elite)Barrel%3.5 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs70BB%4.0
COL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+97 (avg)12+120K%18.1 (above avg)HH%37.7 (avg)Whiff%23.7
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.55 (below avg)ERA 4.54
SFG
xERA 4.19 (avg)ERA 4.37
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+200+1.5 (-110)O7.5 (-110)SFG-230-1.5 (-110)U7.5 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+156+0.5 (+100)O4.5 (+112)SFG-188-0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (+112/-135)1.5 (-105/-125)SFG4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Lorenzen3.5 (+120 / -144)15.5 (+119 / +126)Logan Webb5.5 (+100 / -127)20.5 (+108 / -133)
Michael Lorenzen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ L0.21400100
L0.21400100Aug 9@ L4.19718324
L4.19718324Aug 3vs L3.07507377
L3.07507377Jul 28@ 
L4.09328133
L4.09328133Jul 21vs 
W3.28057166
W3.28057166Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L1.01410000
L1.01410000Aug 9vs L8.010024111
L8.010024111Aug 3@ W6.09685100
W6.09685100Jul 29vs 
W6.09645122
W6.09645122Jul 24vs 
W6.09946244
W6.09946244SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Lorenzen
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG2.84.291.03.32.0(3)
at SFG3.12.872.04.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ L0.21400100
L0.21400100Jul 12@ L5.07915311
L5.07915311May 29vs W3.27025233
W3.27025233May 20@ L4.29757123
L4.29757123Logan Webb
IPERAKHBB
vs COL2.78.892.74.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L1.01410000
L1.01410000Jul 3@ L3.076211277
L3.076211277May 29@ L4.18653311
L4.18653311home starts5.01.802.33.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L1.01410000
L1.01410000Aug 9vs L8.010024111
L8.010024111Jul 29vs W6.09645122
W6.09645122Trends · COL
- COL are 6-5 vs SFG this season (11 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 1-4 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-3 in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 5.8 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.8 runs/game in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 4-1 to the over in Michael Lorenzen's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-1 to the over in Michael Lorenzen's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 5-6 vs COL this season (11 games).
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 3-2 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 3-2 in Logan Webb's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 6.4 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 5.8 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 3-2 to the over in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 2-1 to the over in Logan Webb's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
66°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 8 mph W
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: HH% 45% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: avg 3.8 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- COL — Michael Lorenzen: recent opponents low-K: SDP 17%, TBR 11%, STL 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
WSN @ 
NYM4:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
WSN @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Brad Lord
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYM
No data
Sean Manaea L
xERA4.18 (avg)ERA2.37K%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below avg)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs68BB%9.1
WSN vs LHP · last 6
wRC+163 (elite)12+118K%22.2 (avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)Whiff%23.4
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 5.12 (below avg)ERA 4.242d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 4.04 (avg)ERA 3.20
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+150+1.5 (-154)O7.5 (+109)NYM-170-1.5 (+125)U7.5 (-125)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+120+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-102)NYM-140-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-135/+105)NYM4.5 (+120/-145)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrad Lord3.5 (+128 / -151)11.5 (-114 / -116)Sean Manaea5.5 (-133 / +116)17.5 (-136 / +110)
Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L1.01420000
L1.01420000Aug 9@ W7.091113011
W7.091113011Aug 4@ W6.010077522
W6.010077522Jul 29vs W6.08945222
W6.08945222Jul 24vs L6.08436211
L6.08436211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN2.06.752.52.00.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L1.01420000
L1.01420000Sep 21vs L3.05034033
L3.05034033home starts4.32.083.03.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L1.01420000
L1.01420000Jul 29vs W6.08945222
W6.08945222Jul 24vs L6.08436211
L6.08436211Trends · WSN
- WSN are 4-4 vs NYM this season (8 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 4-4 vs WSN this season (8 games).
- NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 home starts.
- NYM average 4.6 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 3.6 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 0-5 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-2 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
84°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph NNW
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- WSN — Brad Lord: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- NYM — Sean Manaea: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- NYM — Sean Manaea: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.12 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- WSN bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- NYM — Sean Manaea: recent opponents low-K: ATL 16%, CLE 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
BAL @ TBR✓6:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
BAL @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Kyle Bradish R
xERA4.41 (avg)ERA5.27K%19.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%11.6 (below avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs81BB%5.2
TBR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+156 (elite)12+145K%11.0 (elite)HH%34.4 (below avg)Whiff%14.3
Ian Seymour L
xERA3.24 (good)ERA1.62K%29.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.2 (below avg)Barrel%11.4 (below avg)IP/gs8.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs86BB%4.5
BAL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+135 (elite)12+98K%22.9 (avg)HH%37.5 (avg)Whiff%21.6
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 6.52
TBR
xERA 4.38 (avg)ERA 4.84
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+132+1.5 (-180)O7.5 (+102)TBR-141-1.5 (+152)U7.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL+124+0.5 (-128)O3.5 (-146)TBR-152-0.5 (-102)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (+108/-130)1.5 (-110/-120)TBR3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Bradish4.5 (-104 / -120)17.5 (-105 / -118)Ian Seymour6.5 (-122 / +118)17.5 (+110 / -128)
Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ L6.09845012
L6.09845012Aug 2vs L3.05332222
L3.05332222Jul 27@ W4.293410155
W4.293410155Jul 22@ 
W6.08944111
W6.08944111Jul 11vs W6.29652211
W6.29652211Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ W6.09875211
W6.09875211Aug 3@ W6.09097022
W6.09097022Jul 29vs W4.2*7142100
W4.2*7142100Jul 23@ L6.0*8775122
L6.0*8775122Jul 18@ L3.06142233
L3.06142233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.52.434.54.52.5(2)
at TBR5.13.536.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 25vs W6.09235211
W6.09235211May 19@ L5.110264322
L5.110264322Ian Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL—
home starts4.18.787.55.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 12vs L3.17836356
L3.17836356Jul 7vs W5.194125033
W5.194125033Trends · BAL
- BAL are 4-3 vs TBR this season (7 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 4.0 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 4.4 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 3-4 vs BAL this season (7 games).
- TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 3-2 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 6.2 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 1-4 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 4
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: 2026-07-27: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: recent opponents low-K: DET 18%, PHI 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-29, 2026-07-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TBR — Ian Seymour: 2026-07-18: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TBR Team Total o3.5 (-128)
Tampa Bay sits at 161 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 144 over its last 12 — an established elite offense, not a fluke — against Bradish, who carries a 4.41 xERA, 11.6% barrel and 39.5% hard-hit over his last 3. Anything he escapes runs into a Baltimore bullpen at 5.90 ERA over its last 12. Four-plus runs for this lineup in this matchup is priced short of its real probability.
MIA @ 
CIN6:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
MIA @ CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Ryan Gusto R
xERA3.87 (avg)ERA5.40K%18.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.0 (below avg)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs74BB%4.6
CIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+54 (poor)12+92K%22.9 (avg)HH%36.6 (avg)Whiff%25.0
Brady Singer R
xERA4.44 (avg)ERA3.31K%15.8 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%1.8 (elite)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs101BB%10.5
MIA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+104 (avg)12+87K%25.4 (below avg)HH%44.3 (above avg)Whiff%23.2
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.59 (good)ERA 4.192d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 1.92 (elite)ERA 4.102d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-102-1.5 (+150)O9.5 (+102)CIN-105+1.5 (-177)U9.0 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-112+0.5 (-156)O5.5 (+110)CIN-112-0.5 (+120)U5.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (-113/-113)2.5 (+100/-130)CIN4.5 (+100/-120)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Gusto4.5 (+100 / -118)14.5 (-122 / -109)Brady Singer5.5 (+114 / +116)17.5 (-118 / +104)
Ryan Gusto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W4.06043122
W4.06043122Aug 4@ L6.08355011
L6.08355011Jul 29vs W5.07939266
W5.07939266Jul 24vs L3.15742111
L3.15742111Jul 21@ 
L2.0*2420000
L2.0*2420000Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ L6.010338133
L6.010338133Aug 4vs 
W6.010165333
W6.010165333Jul 29vs L4.110037444
L4.110037444Jul 22@ W6.210166133
W6.210166133Jul 17@ W7.09664022
W7.09664022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA4.46.144.77.00.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 8@ L2.273310056
L2.273310056Jul 7vs L5.09637122
L5.09637122Apr 23@ W6.08884022
W6.08884022home starts5.74.194.75.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs W6.010165333
W6.010165333Jul 29vs L4.110037444
L4.110037444Jul 9vs L7.18954111
L7.18954111Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-3 vs CIN this season (5 games).
- MIA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 1-3 in Ryan Gusto's last 4 away starts.
- MIA average 5.6 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 2.8 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 2-2 to the over in Ryan Gusto's last 4 starts.
- MIA are 1-1 to the over in Ryan Gusto's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 3-2 vs MIA this season (5 games).
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 3.8 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 1.4 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 1-4 to the over in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-2 to the over in Brady Singer's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Clear, Wind 1 mph NNW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- CIN bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-21, 2026-07-18 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: last start: 60 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: 2026-07-29: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: recent opponents high-K: ATL 29%, LAA 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- CIN — Brady Singer: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CIN — Brady Singer: 2026-07-29: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Cincinnati's ugly 54 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 is a slump inside a 92 last-12 lineup due to correct, so there's no reliable edge to press in a hitter's park.
SDP @ CLE✓7:10 PM · Progressive Field
SDP @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Wandy Peralta
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CLE
No data
Joey Cantillo L
xERA4.82 (below avg)ERA2.70K%34.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%64.3 (poor)Barrel%21.4 (poor)IP/gs3.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs67BB%6.4
SDP vs LHP · last 6
wRC+222 (elite)12+125K%18.6 (above avg)HH%35.5 (avg)Whiff%18.8
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.22 (elite)ERA 3.14
CLE
xERA 4.95 (below avg)ERA 6.152d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+108-1.5 (+172)O8.5 (-105)CLE-116-1.5 (+168)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+114+0.5 (-132)O4.5 (-118)CLE-130-0.5 (+102)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (-145/+114)1.5 (-154/+120)CLE4.5 (+114/-145)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UWandy Peralta——Joey Cantillo5.5 (+110 / -138)15.5 (+120 / +123)
Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ L1.03133011
L1.03133011Aug 4vs L5.08157225
L5.08157225Jul 29@ W4.08984100
W4.08984100Jul 24@ L3.27448155
L3.27448155Jul 19vs L5.08077344
L5.08077344SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Joey Cantillo
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP—
home starts5.04.805.35.73.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs L5.08157225
L5.08157225Jul 19vs L5.08077344
L5.08077344Jul 1vs W5.09343522
W5.09343522Trends · SDP
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have won 6 straight.
Over / Under
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 3.0 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-1 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 3 home starts.
Weather
76°F, Wind 3 mph NE
Flags · 7
- SDP — Wandy Peralta: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: HH% 64% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: Barrel% 21% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: avg 3.3 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- CLE bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: last start: 31 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: 2026-08-09: 1 ER in 1.0 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SDP ML (+105)
Cantillo has been demolished on contact — 64.3% hard-hit and 21.4% barrel over his last 3, lasting just 3.3 IP/gs — and he draws a San Diego lineup at 206 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 (130 over its last 12), backed by a bullpen at 2.39 xERA over its last 12. Vasquez owns a 2.34 xERA over his last 3 against a Cleveland lineup at 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 that will hand off to a bullpen sitting at 5.00 xERA. Getting the stronger team at a plus price is the mispricing.
Joey Cantillo u14.5 Outs (+130)
Cantillo has averaged 3.3 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 1.0-inning outing last time, and he faces a San Diego lineup at 206 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 while allowing 64.3% hard contact over that span. A line at 14.5 outs asks for nearly five innings he has not reached, and the plus price on the under is well below his true likelihood of an early exit.
SDP Team Total o3.5 (-136)
Joey Cantillo is a batting-practice arm right now — 64.3% hard contact and 21.4% barrels over his last 3 with just 3.3 IP/gs, a 4.82 xERA, and a 1-inning outing last time. San Diego is crushing left-handed pitching at 222 wRC+ over its last 6 and a still-elite 125 over its last 12, and Cantillo's early hooks expose a Cleveland bullpen at 4.95 xERA and 6.15 ERA. Even regressing the heater, this offense clears 3.5 against a pitcher this hittable and a relief corps this weak.
SEA @ HOU7:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
SEA @ HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Emerson Hancock R
xERA2.67 (elite)ERA4.60K%18.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%3.5 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs8.3PC/gs94BB%5.3
HOU vs RHP · last 6
wRC+67 (poor)12+108K%18.8 (above avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Whiff%23.6
Hayden Wesneski R
xERA4.83 (below avg)ERA3.86K%16.0 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs80BB%8.0
SEA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+107 (avg)12+92K%17.6 (above avg)HH%39.7 (avg)Whiff%21.6
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.47 (avg)ERA 7.852d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 2.11
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+110+1.5 (-190)O8.5 (-115)HOU-118-1.5 (+168)U8.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+102+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-128)HOU-128-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA4.5 (+110/+118)2.5 (+124/-160)HOU4.5 (+108/-130)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEmerson Hancock4.5 (-107 / -113)17.5 (-102 / +101)Hayden Wesneski4.5 (+125 / -158)15.5 (+114 / -140)
Emerson Hancock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs L4.29639122
L4.29639122Aug 4vs L6.09468234
L6.09468234Jul 29@ L5.09258133
L5.09258133Jul 22vs L6.09535122
L6.09535122Jul 12@ W1.21920100
W1.21920100Hayden Wesneski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ W7.08345233
W7.08345233Aug 4vs W6.07844222
W6.07844222Jul 29@ W5.27947233
W5.27947233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Emerson Hancock
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.54.914.06.51.0(2)
at HOU6.04.503.09.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 10vs W5.08854233
W5.08854233May 23@ W6.09239033
W6.09239033Hayden Wesneski
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA7.02.575.03.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 7@ L7.08253022
L7.08253022home starts5.73.716.05.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs W6.07844222
W6.07844222Apr 19vs W5.08546122
W5.08546122Apr 13vs W6.093105033
W6.093105033Trends · SEA
- SEA are 7-2 vs HOU this season (9 games).
- SEA are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 1-4 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-3 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 2.8 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 4.4 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 0-4 to the over in Emerson Hancock's last 4 starts.
- SEA are 0-2 to the over in Emerson Hancock's last 2 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 2-7 vs SEA this season (9 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-0 in Hayden Wesneski's last 3 starts.
- HOU are 1-0 in Hayden Wesneski's last 1 home starts.
- HOU average 6.7 runs/game in Hayden Wesneski's last 3 starts.
- HOU average 7.0 runs/game in Hayden Wesneski's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-0 to the over in Hayden Wesneski's last 3 starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 1
- SEA — Emerson Hancock: recent opponents low-K: DET 18%, TBR 11% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Hancock's elite 2.67 xERA meets a Houston lineup slumping to 67 wRC+ over their last 6 but 108 over their last 12, and Seattle's disastrous bullpen makes any side untrustworthy.
PHI @ MIN✓7:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
PHI @ MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA2.74 (elite)ERA3.38K%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs7.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs99BB%7.1
MIN vs LHP · last 6
wRC+152 (elite)12+140K%27.0 (below avg)HH%36.4 (avg)Whiff%17.7
Connor Prielipp L
xERA3.65 (good)ERA3.94K%27.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%7.9 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs85BB%11.3
PHI vs LHP · last 6
wRC+97 (avg)12+111K%25.9 (below avg)HH%36.4 (avg)Whiff%30.0
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.58 (good)ERA 4.372d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 3.40 (good)ERA 3.862d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-126-1.5 (+125)O8.0 (-115)MIN+119+1.5 (-150)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-140-0.5 (-108)O4.5 (+102)MIN+122+0.5 (-120)U4.5 (-132)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (+110/-135)2.5 (+120/-154)MIN3.5 (-111/-110)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJesus Luzardo6.5 (+102 / -125)17.5 (-183 / +146)Connor Prielipp5.5 (+116 / -140)15.5 (+105 / -134)
Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W7.0100124122
W7.0100124122Aug 4vs W8.09874200
W8.09874200Jul 29@ L6.110056366
L6.110056366Jul 24vs L7.010594111
L7.010594111Jul 18vs W5.09072211
W5.09072211Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ L5.09675233
L5.09675233Aug 1@ L5.18854433
L5.18854433Jul 26vs W5.27252111
W5.27252111Jul 8vs W5.08364233
W5.08364233Jun 28vs W6.093106022
W6.093106022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Connor Prielipp
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI—
home starts5.43.337.04.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs W5.27252111
W5.27252111Jul 8vs W5.08364233
W5.08364233Jun 28vs W6.093106022
W6.093106022Trends · PHI
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 3-2 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 4-1 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 4.8 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 6.4 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 2-3 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-2 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-2 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 3-2 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 5.2 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 6.2 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 2-3 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-1 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
80°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph S
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PHI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PHI — Jesus Luzardo: 2026-07-29: 6 ER in 6.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: recent opponents high-K: SEA 27%, MIL 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Jesus Luzardo o6.5 Ks (-109)
Luzardo has a 28.6% K rate over his last 3 with 8 strikeouts per start and 7.1 IP/gs, and Minnesota strikes out at 27.0% vs LHP over its last 6, so both the rate and the length line (18.5 outs) support the number. A strong swing-and-miss arm going deep against a high-whiff lineup makes 6.5 an under-set total near even money.
MIN Team Total o3.5 (-111)
Minnesota mashes left-handed pitching at 152 wRC+ over their last 6 and 140 over their last 12 — an elite, established read, not a fluke — and they host Jesus Luzardo at Target Field, a hitter's park where they've averaged 6.2 runs behind their starter. Even against a quality arm, a lineup this locked in vs lefties clearing 4 runs at this price is the edge.
ARI @ ATL7:15 PM · Truist ParkHot
ARI @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
E. Rodriguez L
xERA3.41 (good)ERA3.05K%17.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%34.3 (good)Barrel%3.0 (elite)IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs107BB%3.5
ATL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+142 (elite)12+146K%15.9 (elite)HH%50.0 (elite)Whiff%19.5
Grant Holmes R
xERA4.40 (avg)ERA1.62K%16.9 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs73BB%7.7
ARI vs RHP · last 6
wRC+113 (avg)12+104K%16.5 (above avg)HH%30.8 (below avg)Whiff%17.1
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.50 (good)ERA 2.84
ATL
xERA 3.59 (good)ERA 3.76
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+123+1.5 (-175)O9.0 (-109)ATL-130-1.5 (+146)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+102+0.5 (-138)O5.5 (+102)ATL-128-0.5 (+106)U5.5 (-132)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)ATL4.5 (-104/-115)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UE. Rodriguez4.5 (+120 / -151)17.5 (-131 / +100)Grant Holmes3.5 (-140 / +114)14.5 (-170 / +130)
E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W7.011595222
W7.011595222Aug 4vs L5.2102411057
L5.2102411057Jul 29@ W8.010525100
W8.010525100Jul 24@ W6.09847322
W6.09847322Jul 19vs W2.26837255
W2.26837255Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ W6.07723200
W6.07723200Aug 4vs W6.07255100
W6.07255100Jul 30vs W4.26945233
W4.26945233Jul 24@ W5.09156233
W5.09156233Jul 19vs W5.07427233
W5.07427233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
E. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL7.00.003.04.01.0(1)
at ATL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 3vs L7.09034100
L7.09034100Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI4.85.664.03.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 3@ W6.08541300
W6.08541300Jun 5vs L3.16444233
L3.16444233Apr 26@ W5.29345366
W5.29345366home starts5.13.553.75.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs W6.07255100
W6.07255100Jul 30vs W4.26945233
W4.26945233Jul 19vs W5.07427233
W5.07427233Trends · ARI
- ARI are 3-2 vs ATL this season (5 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 5-0 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 4.4 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 4.8 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 2-3 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 2-3 vs ARI this season (5 games).
- ATL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 5-0 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 5.2 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 4.8 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 2-3 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-2 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
94°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph NW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: last start: 115 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: 2026-08-04: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: low-K outing 2026-07-29 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: high-K outing 2026-08-09 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- ATL — Grant Holmes: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Rodriguez's 3.41 xERA over his last 3 against Atlanta's established elite 142/146 wRC+ vs LHP pulls in opposite directions, and every posted number already reflects that standoff.
BOS @ PIT✓7:15 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
BOS @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Sonny Gray R
xERA2.61 (elite)ERA2.84K%21.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.2 (avg)Barrel%1.8 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs93BB%6.3
PIT vs RHP · last 6
wRC+115 (above avg)12+96K%20.5 (avg)HH%33.3 (below avg)Whiff%21.4
Jared Jones R
xERA4.73 (below avg)ERA9.69K%18.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below avg)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs76BB%9.2
BOS vs RHP · last 6
wRC+97 (avg)12+145K%17.0 (above avg)HH%31.3 (below avg)Whiff%22.1
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 2.19 (elite)ERA 3.452d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 3.062d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-112-1.5 (+146)O7.5 (-113)PIT+108+1.5 (-170)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-115-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (+112)PIT+106+0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+120/+105)1.5 (-145/+114)PIT3.5 (-113/-113)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USonny Gray5.5 (+102 / -113)17.5 (-170 / +138)Jared Jones4.5 (-132 / +110)14.5 (-192 / +154)
Sonny Gray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ L6.09946122
L6.09946122Aug 5vs W6.08383200
W6.08383200Jul 30@ W7.09757244
W7.09757244Jul 25vs L5.075310055
L5.075310055Jul 19vs W6.09155411
W6.09155411Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs L3.06936388
L3.06936388Aug 4@ L4.08348133
L4.08348133Jul 29vs L6.07754233
L6.07754233Jul 24vs L6.08352111
L6.08352111Jul 18@ W5.07493111
W5.07493111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sonny Gray
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT6.72.247.03.31.7(3)
at PIT5.54.055.04.00.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 27vs L7.08773312
L7.08773312Jul 2@ L6.17865144
L6.17865144May 7vs W7.08982100
W7.08982100Apr 8@ W5.07143011
W5.07143011Jared Jones
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS—
home starts5.07.204.34.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs L3.06936388
L3.06936388Jul 29vs L6.07754233
L6.07754233Jul 24vs L6.08352111
L6.08352111Trends · BOS
- BOS are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 3-2 in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 4-1 in Sonny Gray's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 3.2 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 5.0 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 to the over in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 1-2 to the over in Sonny Gray's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 1-4 in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 0-5 in Jared Jones's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 2.4 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 2.0 runs/game in Jared Jones's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 1-4 to the over in Jared Jones's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 1-2 to the over in Jared Jones's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph NE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- PIT — Jared Jones: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- BOS bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PIT bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PIT — Jared Jones: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
BOS ML (-120)
Sonny Gray owns this lineup — 2.24 ERA across his last 3 starts vs Pittsburgh with 8, 6, and 7 strikeouts, backed by a 2.61 xERA over his last 3 overall. Jared Jones has been a fire hazard at a 9.69 ERA over his last 3 including 8 earned in 3 innings last time, a 4.73 xERA and 44.4% hard contact, and Pittsburgh has scored just 2.0 runs per home game behind its starters going 0-5. At -120 the price treats this as a coin flip when the starting-pitching gap is enormous.
Sonny Gray o5.5 Ks (+110)
Gray has struck out 8, 6, and 7 across his last 3 starts against Pittsburgh specifically, going at least 6.1 innings each time, and his outs line of 17.5 gives him the length to get there again. His 21.5% K rate over his last 3 meets a Pittsburgh lineup at a moderate 20.5% K rate over its last 6, and at plus money the market is underpricing a strikeout number he has cleared in three straight looks at this exact opponent.
MIL @ LAD✓7:15 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
MIL @ LAD✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
J. Misiorowski R
xERA1.41 (elite)ERA3.00K%48.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs87BB%3.1
LAD vs RHP · last 6
wRC+105 (avg)12+72K%21.7 (avg)HH%33.9 (below avg)Whiff%22.8
Justin Wrobleski L
xERA8.15 (poor)ERA9.88K%20.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%46.8 (poor)Barrel%19.1 (poor)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs90BB%8.8
MIL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+103 (avg)12+102K%30.9 (poor)HH%39.1 (avg)Whiff%28.5
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.45 (elite)ERA 2.132d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 3.15 (good)ERA 3.892d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-119-1.5 (+138)O7.5 (+100)LAD+112+1.5 (-165)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-174-0.5 (-114)O3.5 (-138)LAD+138+0.5 (-114)U3.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL3.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (-166/+130)LAD3.5 (+110/-130)1.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJ. Misiorowski8.5 (-120 / -104)17.5 (-172 / +139)Justin Wrobleski4.5 (-160 / +134)17.5 (-113 / -117)
J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W6.09494133
W6.09494133Aug 2@ L7.083102122
L7.083102122Jul 26vs W5.083121011
W5.083121011Jul 20vs W4.06564101
W4.06564101Jul 7@ W7.0103113033
W7.0103113033Justin Wrobleski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ L3.17636334
L3.17636334Aug 3@ L4.19147377
L4.19147377Jul 28vs L6.010277055
L6.010277055Jul 21@ W6.18975111
W6.18975111Jul 7vs L7.09496211
L7.09496211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.01.5012.04.01.0(1)
at LAD—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8vs W6.091124111
W6.091124111Justin Wrobleski
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.09.004.08.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 22@ L5.010048255
L5.010048255home starts6.32.847.05.30.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28vs L6.010277055
L6.010277055Jul 7vs L7.09496211
L7.09496211Jun 16vs W6.06753000
W6.06753000Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-3 vs LAD this season (5 games).
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 3-2 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 3.0 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 1-4 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 3-2 vs MIL this season (5 games).
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 1-4 in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-3 in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 3.6 runs/game in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 2-3 to the over in Justin Wrobleski's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-1 to the over in Justin Wrobleski's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- LAD — Justin Wrobleski: HH% 47% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- LAD — Justin Wrobleski: Barrel% 19% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAD — Justin Wrobleski: last start: 76 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- LAD — Justin Wrobleski: recent opponents high-K: SEA 27%, CHC 31% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
J. Misiorowski o8.5 Ks (-102)
Misiorowski has struck out 12, 10, and 9 over his last 3 starts on a 48.4% K rate, including 12 in his one start against the Dodgers this year. His outs line of 17.5 matches his 6.0 IP/gs, and even Los Angeles at a moderate 21.7% K rate over its last 6 cannot dent a strikeout arm operating at this level — the number sits below his floor over three straight starts.
MIL ML (-123)
Misiorowski brings a 1.41 xERA and 48.4% K rate over his last 3 against a Dodgers lineup whose 105 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 masks a 72 mark over its last 12 — a heater against the exact arm that struck them out 12 times in his lone meeting. Justin Wrobleski counters with an 8.15 xERA, 46.8% hard contact, and 19.1% barrels over his last 3, giving Milwaukee's bullpen a 2.13 ERA to protect. At -123 the market discounts how lopsided the run-prevention edge is.
KCR @ LAA✓9:38 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
KCR @ LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Randy Dobnak R
xERA4.06 (avg)ERA2.65K%12.3 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%42.4 (below avg)Barrel%5.1 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs95BB%6.9
LAA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+94 (below avg)12+78K%26.7 (below avg)HH%33.0 (below avg)Whiff%26.1
Reid Detmers L
xERA4.32 (avg)ERA3.60K%32.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%48.6 (poor)Barrel%14.3 (below avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs84BB%9.8
KCR vs LHP · last 6
wRC+93 (below avg)12+91K%25.2 (below avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)Whiff%23.4
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.76 (below avg)ERA 5.09
LAA
xERA 2.78 (elite)ERA 4.242d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+138+1.5 (-163)O8.0 (-103)LAA-146-1.5 (+142)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+140+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-102)LAA-175-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (+100/-120)1.5 (-115/-115)LAA4.5 (+116/-135)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URandy Dobnak3.5 (+132 / -151)15.5 (+100 / -112)Reid Detmers6.5 (+114 / -132)17.5 (-120 / -109)
Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs L5.094410144
L5.094410144Aug 4vs W5.09013311
W5.09013311Jul 29@ W7.010144100
W7.010144100Jul 23@ L5.07634100
L5.07634100Jul 18vs W4.19634411
W4.19634411Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs L6.08863411
L6.08863411Aug 5@ L4.08154133
L4.08154133Jul 28vs L5.08494122
L5.08494122Jul 22vs L5.18562211
L5.18562211Jul 17vs L6.08674000
L6.08674000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.05.405.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 26@ L5.09355133
L5.09355133home starts5.42.247.03.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs L6.08863411
L6.08863411Jul 28vs L5.08494122
L5.08494122Jul 22vs L5.18562211
L5.18562211Trends · KCR
- KCR are 4-0 vs LAA this season (4 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 3-2 in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-1 in Randy Dobnak's last 2 away starts.
- KCR average 4.6 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 3.5 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 2-3 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-4 vs KCR this season (4 games).
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 0-5 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-5 in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 1.2 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 1.2 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 1-4 to the over in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-3 to the over in Reid Detmers's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- LAA — Reid Detmers: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- LAA — Reid Detmers: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: 2026-08-09: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Reid Detmers o6.5 Ks (+134)
Detmers carries a 32.8% K rate over his last 3 with 9, 5 and 6 strikeouts, and Kansas City whiffs at 25.2% vs LHP over its last 6, so both signals point up. At plus money against a lineup that misses this often, the over is priced as a coin flip when his rate and matchup make it better than that.
TEX @ ATH9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
TEX @ ATHMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA2.56 (elite)ERA1.96K%30.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%31.8 (good)Barrel%11.4 (below avg)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs99BB%6.9
ATH vs LHP · last 6
wRC+133 (elite)12+87K%21.2 (avg)HH%26.7 (poor)Whiff%22.6
J.T. Ginn R
xERA3.18 (good)ERA1.96K%18.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs89BB%9.5
TEX vs RHP · last 6
wRC+46 (poor)12+51K%22.5 (avg)HH%34.9 (below avg)Whiff%22.4
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.60 (good)ERA 5.242d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 4.83 (below avg)ERA 6.85
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-150-1.5 (+104)O9.5 (+100)ATH+147+1.5 (-118)U9.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-145-0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-146)ATH+116+0.5 (-122)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX5.5 (+105/+110)2.5 (-115/-115)ATH3.5 (-138/+110)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMacKenzie Gore6.5 (+130 / -138)17.5 (-102 / -115)J.T. Ginn4.5 (-102 / -115)16.5 (-116 / -102)
MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ W5.110394211
W5.110394211Aug 4vs W6.09943300
W6.09943300Jul 29@ L7.09593033
L7.09593033Jul 24vs W5.09657233
W5.09657233Jul 18@ W5.28776155
W5.28776155J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ W6.09525213
W6.09525213Aug 4@ L6.09155233
L6.09155233Jul 18vs W6.18271300
W6.18271300Jul 12@ L4.18676388
L4.18676388Jul 7@ L4.06142222
L4.06142222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH4.19.594.07.03.3(3)
at ATH4.24.295.03.06.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 25vs W5.010676333
W5.010676333Apr 14@ L4.29453622
L4.29453622Aug 5vs L3.060012188
L3.060012188J.T. Ginn
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX4.74.444.03.32.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 26@ W3.14623100
W3.14623100Apr 15vs W5.17832422
W5.17832422Aug 31vs L6.09575255
L6.09575255home starts5.72.095.33.33.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 18vs W6.18271300
W6.18271300Jul 1vs W6.010443511
W6.010443511Jun 20vs L5.19856334
L5.19856334Trends · TEX
- TEX are 3-5 vs ATH this season (8 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 1-9 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX have lost 4 straight.
- TEX are 4-1 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 4.2 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.2 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 3-2 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-2 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 5-3 vs TEX this season (8 games).
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 4-1 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 5.2 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 8.0 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-1 to the over in J.T. Ginn's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- TEX bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TEX — MacKenzie Gore: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
Texas is dead at the plate (46 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6) but Oakland's hot 133/87 vs-LHP split is a heater over an unreliable base and both bullpens are dreadful, leaving no clean side or total.