MLB Game Overviews

Tampa's bats have run at a 126 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 12 while striking out just 18.1%, and they draw Jack Perkins, who owns an 8.36 ERA over his last 3 with a 15% barrel rate and a 10.00 ERA across his last 3 home starts. Behind him sits an Oakland bullpen at a 7.92 ERA over its last 12, in a park that plays to a 107 factor. The number sits at a modest over/under despite Tampa averaging 5.6 runs on the road over their last 10 — the market is underpricing how little run prevention this staff offers.

Rasmussen has punched out 9, 10, and 8 over his last 3 starts, a 38.6% K rate, and his 17.5-out line gives him the innings to work, sitting at 6.7 IP over those same 3 starts. Oakland strikes out at a 21.6% clip against righties over their last 12, enough contact-avoidance to feed the whiff. Getting plus money on a pitcher averaging nine strikeouts a night is a clear mispricing of his current form.

Houston's bats have been elite against right-handers over the last 12 at a 137 wRC+ with a 19.7% strikeout rate, and Adrian Houser takes the mound having thrown just 29 pitches in his last outing 57 days ago — a starter unlikely to be stretched past a few innings. That funnels this game into a San Francisco bullpen carrying a 4.48 xERA over its last 12. An elite offense against a short-leashed starter and a leaky pen makes the over on this team total the play.

Detroit's lineup has been elite against left-handers over its last 12 at a 152 wRC+ with a low 18.9% strikeout rate, and it faces Foster Griffin, a lefty with a 4.87 xERA and 7.88 ERA over his last 3 who was rocked for 5 earned in 4 innings his last time out. The Tigers have averaged 5.8 runs over their last 10. Against a lefty this hittable, crossing four runs is more likely than the number implies.

Seattle sits at 79 wRC+ and the Yankees at 70 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 12 — two struggling lineups. Bryce Miller carries a 3.45 xERA over his last 3 despite a shiny surface ERA, and Will Warren owns a 1.76 ERA with 6.5 K per start across two meetings with the Mariners. Two weak offenses under a number this size, at even money, is value on the under.

Boston's offense has been elite against right-handers over its last 12 at a 144 wRC+ with a low 16.9% strikeout rate, facing a Jose Soriano who was tagged for 7 earned in 3.2 innings the last time these clubs met. Ranger Suarez has thrown three straight scoreless starts against Toronto (6.3 IP, 7.3 K per start), and the Jays have hit just 43 wRC+ against lefties over their last 12. With Boston's bullpen humming at a 1.74 xERA over its last 12 and the club 5-0 in its starter's last five, -125 undervalues the two-sided edge.

Toronto has been dreadful against left-handed pitching over its last 12 at a 43 wRC+ with a 24.1% strikeout rate, and Ranger Suarez has held them scoreless across three consecutive meetings while averaging 6.3 innings. Boston's bullpen at a 1.74 xERA over its last 12 offers no relief for the Jays late. The market is not fully accounting for how badly this lineup has matched up with this arm.

Atlanta's lineup has been elite against left-handers over the last 12 games at a 154 wRC+ with just a 17.2% strikeout rate, and it faces Zac Thornton, a lefty with a 4.58 xERA, a 42.9% hard-hit rate, and a 63-pitch hook last time out. On the other side Tyler Mahle carries a 2.67 xERA over his last 3 and a 0.49 ERA across his last 3 home starts to smother a Mets attack sitting at 106 wRC+. Atlanta is 9-1 at home over its last 10; at plus money the runline pays for a comfortable win the market is only pricing as a coin-flip margin.

Mahle has struck out 9 in each of his last two starts and carries a 30.9% K rate over his last 3, with a 16.5-out line giving him room at his 5.9 IP recent workload. The Mets whiff at a 23.5% rate against righties over their last 12, a group that supports the miss. A 30%-K arm in this kind of form at plus money on a 5.5 line is value the market has not caught up to.

Cincinnati has hit 121 wRC+ against righties over its last 12 and draws Luis Castillo, who carries a 5.94 xERA and 7.31 ERA over his last 3, a 14.1% K rate, and a 7.30 ERA across two meetings with the Reds this year. Rhett Lowder counters with a 3.56 xERA over his last 3 against a White Sox lineup at just 86 wRC+ versus righties. Chicago is the favorite despite owning the worse pitcher and the worse bat matchup, so the road dog getting plus money through the first five is the value.

Both lineups are cold — Texas at 68 wRC+ and the Angels at 58 wRC+ against righties over their last 12 — and Cal Quantrill brings a 2.36 xERA over his last 3 to shut down the worst of the two. George Klassen is wild but works so short (2.9 IP over his last 3) that the Angels' offense is the limiting factor on total scoring. Two of the weakest bats on the board sitting under a number near 9 is a total set too high.