MLB Game Overviews

Boston sits at an elite 154 wRC+ over their last 12 vs right-handers with a low 17.2% strikeout rate, a lineup that puts the ball in play and punishes it. Taillon has been battered for a 7.95 xERA, 20% barrel rate, and 10.22 ERA over his last 3 while averaging only 4.1 innings, pushing this early to a Toronto bullpen already stretched. At -106 the market underprices a top offense against a collapsing arm.

Boston's 154 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 12 is the strongest offense on the slate, and Taillon has been hammered for a 20% barrel rate and 7.95 xERA over his last 3 while lasting just 4.1 innings a start. Gray backs it with a 3.67 xERA over his last 3, and Boston's bullpen has been dominant at a 2.11 xERA over their last 12. At +105 the run line pays plus money for a team that should win this by multiple runs.

Scott carries a 30.3% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts and has punched out at least 6 in each (6, 7, 7). Atlanta has struck out at a 23.3% clip over their last 12 vs right-handers, enough contact-shy swing-and-miss to keep his total climbing. With New York's bullpen taxed, he is set up to work deep rather than get an early hook. At +106 the number sits a half-strikeout below his recent floor.

Kremer carries a 15.9% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts with just 5, 4, and 2 punchouts and only 5 innings a start. Even against Minnesota's 20.1% strikeout rate over their last 12 vs right-handers, a 6-strikeout day is well outside his recent form. The 5.5 line is a full strikeout above anything he has posted, leaving the under the correct side.

Rogers owns a 28.0% K rate over his last 3 starts and has recorded 6, 6, and 9 strikeouts in them — and those totals came against Atlanta (16% K) and Detroit (19% K), lineups that make far more contact than Minnesota's 22.9% K rate vs LHP over its last 12. He averages 6.3 IP over his last 3, giving him the length to clear a low number. The market set this at 4.5 as if his recent Ks are unrepeatable, but the opponent here fans more, not less.

Gore holds a 25.0% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts, including a 9-strikeout outing, and the Angels have whiffed at a 27.7% clip over their last 12 vs left-handers. That is one of the highest strikeout-rate lineups on the board facing an arm that misses bats and works 6 innings a start. At +116 the plus money rewards an over that the elevated opponent K-rate supports.

The Angels post a 63 wRC+ vs LHP with a 26.8% K rate over their last 12, the weakest lineup here, and they draw MacKenzie Gore and his 2.84 xERA and 25.0% K rate over his last 3. Los Angeles has scored just 2.0 runs per home game behind its starter and lost all five of its last starts. Against an elite lefty, 3.5 runs is more than this anemic group has been managing.

Mize owns a 15.2% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts and has managed just 5, 3, and 1 punchouts while averaging only 4.2 innings a start. Milwaukee's 21.8% strikeout rate over their last 12 vs right-handers is not high enough to lift a low-K arm who rarely finishes five innings. At +118 the under is plus money against a pitcher whose recent output never sniffed this number.