AI Picks · 7 Bets · Aug 21
Chris Sale o7.5 Ks (-105)
Sale carries a 39.4% K rate over his last 3 with 9, 8 and 9 strikeouts in those outings, and he has torn through this lineup for 11 and 7 Ks in his two most recent meetings. Milwaukee runs a 26.5% K rate vs LHP over its last 6, giving him whiff volume to work with, and even with a shorter leash after 108 pitches his 6-inning floor at that rate clears 8; the near-even price undervalues a pitcher averaging 8.7 Ks a start.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
Freddy Peralta u5.5 Ks (-142)
Peralta has collected only 3, 5 and 2 strikeouts over his last 3 starts on a 16.4% K rate, and his outs line of 15.5 reflects a short leash at 4.8 IP/gs. Even against Baltimore's 23.7% K rate he averages 3.3 whiffs a start, leaving the number well out of reach; the market overrates his name here.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
Sean Manaea o5.5 Ks (-132)
Manaea has posted 7, 11 and 7 strikeouts over his last 3 starts on a 31.2% K rate, and he averages 6.4 IP/gs so the innings are there. Chicago strikes out at a 26.5% clip vs LHP over its last 6, a rate that feeds his swing-and-miss; the line sitting at 5.5 prices him well below his recent floor.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
Hayden Wesneski u5.5 Ks (-144)
Wesneski is a modest 20.0% K arm who has produced just 4, 4 and 6 strikeouts over his last 3 starts. Oakland owns a 12.2% K rate vs RHP over its last 6, the best contact profile on the board, which makes reaching 6 whiffs unlikely regardless of length; the market is pricing his ceiling rather than this contact-heavy matchup.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
Noah Cameron o5.5 Ks (+106)
Cameron has struck out 9 and 8 in two of his last 3 starts on a 23.5% K rate and averages 7.6 IP/gs, so length is not a concern. Detroit is slumping to a 31.3% K rate vs LHP over its last 6 alongside a 50 wRC+, a lineup expanding the zone; plus money on a deep-working lefty against a high-whiff opponent is value.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
LAA @ TEX u7.5 (-118)
The Angels have managed a 2 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and just 41 over their last 12, and they average only 1.2 runs in these starts — they cannot generate offense against Gore. Texas sits at 89 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 facing Detmers, who owns a 2.56 xERA over his last 3 and a 3.50 ERA across 3 starts vs Texas; two capable lefties against two cold lineups makes 7.5 too high.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
MacKenzie Gore o6.5 Ks (-120)
Gore has struck out 7, 7 and 9 in his three meetings with the Angels, all clearing this number, and he runs a 24.3% K rate over his last 3. Los Angeles is at a 2 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and whiffs freely, so this is the softest possible spot for his slider; the line lags his consistent head-to-head output.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
ATL @ 
MIL✓4:10 PM · American Family Field (Roof Closed)
ATL @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Chris Sale L
xERA2.35 (elite)ERA2.00 (elite)K%39.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%42.1 (below)Barrel%5.3 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs102BB%3.0
MIL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+125 (above)12+113 (avg)K%26.5 (below)HH%52.8 (elite)Whiff%29.0 (poor)
J. Misiorowski R
xERA1.79 (elite)ERA2.84 (elite)K%35.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%4.7 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs92BB%4.2
ATL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+31 (poor)12+54 (poor)K%27.0 (below)HH%38.0 (avg)Whiff%19.3 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 4.21 (avg)ERA 4.38 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 2.12 (elite)ERA 1.91 (elite)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL+125+1.5 (-192)O6.5 (-102)MIL-142-1.5 (+165)U6.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL+135+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (+125)MIL-150-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (-164)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL2.5 (-125/+100)0.5 (-180/+140)MIL3.5 (+116/-140)1.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UChris Sale7.5 (-105 / -104)18.5 (+146 / +145)J. Misiorowski9.5 (+112 / -134)18.5 (+130 / -168)
Chris Sale · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs 
L6.010895011
L6.010895011Aug 8@ 
L6.010385233
L6.010385233Jul 29@ 
W6.09492000
W6.09492000Jul 23vs 
W6.098115133
W6.098115133Jul 17vs 
W7.08962000
W7.08962000J. Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ 
W6.09865111
W6.09865111Aug 9vs 
W6.09494133
W6.09494133Aug 2@ 
L7.083102122
L7.083102122Jul 26vs 
W5.083121011
W5.083121011Jul 20vs W4.06564101
W4.06564101SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chris Sale
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.10.74elite9.05.01.5(2)
at MIL7.01.29elite11.05.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs W5.210175102
W5.210175102Jun 9@ W7.0103115211
W7.0103115211J. Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL6.03.00good7.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19@ L6.09175122
L6.09175122home starts5.02.40elite9.03.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W6.09494133
W6.09494133Jul 26vs W5.083121011
W5.083121011Jul 20vs W4.06564101
W4.06564101Trends · ATL
- ATL are 2-1 vs MIL this season (3 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 2-3 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-4 in Chris Sale's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 2.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 1.6 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 3-2 to the over in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-2 to the over in Chris Sale's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 1-2 vs ATL this season (3 games).
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 6.2 runs/game in J. Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 1-4 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in J. Misiorowski's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- MIL bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL — Chris Sale: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
Chris Sale o7.5 Ks (-105)
Sale carries a 39.4% K rate over his last 3 with 9, 8 and 9 strikeouts in those outings, and he has torn through this lineup for 11 and 7 Ks in his two most recent meetings. Milwaukee runs a 26.5% K rate vs LHP over its last 6, giving him whiff volume to work with, and even with a shorter leash after 108 pitches his 6-inning floor at that rate clears 8; the near-even price undervalues a pitcher averaging 8.7 Ks a start.
STL @ 
PHI6:40 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
STL @ PHIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Hunter Dobbins R
xERA3.47 (good)ERA2.76 (elite)K%24.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%24.4 (elite)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs95BB%14.5
PHI vs RHP · last 6
wRC+147 (elite)12+111 (avg)K%13.1 (elite)HH%32.0 (below)Whiff%16.3 (elite)
Jesus Luzardo L
xERA2.18 (elite)ERA1.25 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs7.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs102BB%5.9
STL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+145 (elite)12+133 (elite)K%17.8 (above)HH%37.1 (avg)Whiff%17.7 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.37 (good)ERA 3.00 (good)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.38 (good)ERA 3.80 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Hunter Dobbins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ 
W5.09672422
W5.09672422Aug 10vs L5.09764313
L5.09764313Aug 4@ L6.19244322
L6.19244322Jul 27vs L5.1*8547144
L5.1*8547144Jul 22@ W6.08656000
W6.08656000Jesus Luzardo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W6.210997211
W6.210997211Aug 9vs 
W7.0100124122
W7.0100124122Aug 4vs 
W8.09874200
W8.09874200Jul 29@ 
L6.110056366
L6.110056366Jul 24vs L7.010594111
L7.010594111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Hunter Dobbins
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.01.80elite6.04.03.0(1)
at PHI—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs L5.09764313
L5.09764313Jesus Luzardo
IPERAKHBB
vs STL7.01.29elite6.05.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 14vs W7.010065211
W7.010065211home starts7.31.23elite9.34.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W7.0100124122
W7.0100124122Aug 4vs W8.09874200
W8.09874200Jul 24vs L7.010594111
L7.010594111Trends · STL
- STL are 2-1 vs PHI this season (3 games).
- STL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-3 in Hunter Dobbins's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Hunter Dobbins's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 3.8 runs/game in Hunter Dobbins's last 5 starts.
- STL average 5.2 runs/game in Hunter Dobbins's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 to the over in Hunter Dobbins's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-2 to the over in Hunter Dobbins's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 1-2 vs STL this season (3 games).
- PHI are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI have won 6 straight.
- PHI are 3-2 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 4-1 in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 5.4 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 5.2 runs/game in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 3-2 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-2 to the over in Jesus Luzardo's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- STL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- PHI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- STL — Hunter Dobbins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27 — may affect pitch count or availability
- PHI — Jesus Luzardo: last start: 109 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
No odds are available for this game.
TOR @ NYY7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumNeutral Conditions
TOR @ NYYMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
NYY
No data
Cam Schlittler R
xERA2.99 (elite)ERA3.52 (good)K%37.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%46.9 (poor)Barrel%9.4 (avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs92BB%12.5
TOR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+104 (avg)12+121 (above)K%21.6 (avg)HH%31.4 (below)Whiff%22.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 3.02 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
NYY
xERA 2.93 (elite)ERA 1.93 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+209+1.5 (-122)O7.5 (-110)NYY-235-1.5 (+105)U7.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UTOR2.5 (-140/+110)NYY4.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTBD——Cam Schlittler5.5 (-160 / +128)18.5 (+145 / +140)
Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ L5.19774311
L5.19774311Aug 9vs L7.096113011
L7.096113011Aug 3vs L3.08364544
L3.08364544Jul 29@ 
L6.19382111
L6.19382111Jul 24@ W7.199123000
W7.199123000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cam Schlittler
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR6.01.99elite7.06.03.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ L5.19774311
L5.19774311Jun 13@ W7.010176411
W7.010176411May 20vs L6.010678222
L6.010678222home starts4.75.11below8.34.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs L7.096113011
L7.096113011Aug 3vs L3.08364544
L3.08364544Jul 19vs L4.19886033
L4.19886033Trends · TOR
- TOR are 5-5 vs NYY this season (10 games).
- TOR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 5-5 vs TOR this season (10 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY have won 4 straight.
- NYY are 1-4 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 0-5 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.0 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 2.6 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-1 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
74°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 3 mph N
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- TOR — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- TOR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: 2026-08-03: 4 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYY — Cam Schlittler: recent opponents high-K: STL 26%, ATL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
Toronto's starter is unannounced with no stats, leaving the game unhandicappable.
SFG @ 
BOS7:10 PM · Fenway ParkNeutral Conditions
SFG @ BOSMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Logan Webb R
xERA1.91 (elite)ERA0.90 (elite)K%23.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.1 (elite)Barrel%1.8 (elite)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs92BB%2.7
BOS vs RHP · last 6
wRC+145 (elite)12+121 (above)K%19.6 (above)HH%32.9 (below)Whiff%20.3 (above)
Sonny Gray R
xERA2.21 (elite)ERA0.95 (elite)K%25.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%30.0 (elite)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs89BB%5.3
SFG vs RHP · last 6
wRC+101 (avg)12+89 (below)K%23.6 (avg)HH%42.5 (above)Whiff%25.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 4.24 (avg)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 3.72 (good)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+155+1.5 (-140)O7.5 (-105)BOS-178-1.5 (+125)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+130+0.5 (-122)O3.5 (-152)BOS-156-0.5 (-106)U3.5 (+116)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USFG3.5 (+120/-142)1.5 (+100/-130)BOS4.5 (+116/-140)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Webb4.5 (-115 / -106)18.5 (+145 / -152)Sonny Gray5.5 (+102 / -106)18.5 (+110 / -140)
Logan Webb · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs W6.08074011
W6.08074011Aug 9vs 
L8.010024111
L8.010024111Aug 3@ W6.09685100
W6.09685100Jul 29vs W6.09645122
W6.09645122Jul 24vs W6.09946244
W6.09946244Sonny Gray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ 
W7.08676100
W7.08676100Aug 10@ L6.09946122
L6.09946122Aug 5vs W6.08383200
W6.08383200Jul 30@ 
W7.09757244
W7.09757244Jul 25vs L5.075310055
L5.075310055SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sonny Gray
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG5.54.05avg6.54.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 24@ L6.09977223
L6.09977223Sep 7vs W5.19162433
W5.19162433home starts5.73.18good5.36.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs W6.08383200
W6.08383200Jul 25vs L5.075310055
L5.075310055Jul 19vs 
W6.09155411
W6.09155411Trends · SFG
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 4-1 in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 2-3 in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 7.2 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 2.6 runs/game in Logan Webb's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 3-2 to the over in Logan Webb's last 5 starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 3-2 in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 2.8 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 3.6 runs/game in Sonny Gray's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 1-4 to the over in Sonny Gray's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 2-1 to the over in Sonny Gray's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
70°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph NE
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- SFG bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SFG — Logan Webb: low-K outing 2026-08-09 (2 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
AI Analysis
Two elite starters against a red-hot Boston lineup make this a genuine coin flip that the sharp total and moneyline already reflect.
WSN @ MIA7:10 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
WSN @ MIAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Brad Lord
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIA
No data
Ryan Gusto R
xERA2.99 (elite)ERA3.07 (good)K%24.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.3 (below)Barrel%10.9 (avg)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs71BB%1.6
WSN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+77 (poor)12+96 (avg)K%22.4 (avg)HH%28.4 (poor)Whiff%20.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 3.59 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
MIA
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 4.43 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+132+1.5 (-170)O8.5 (+102)MIA-150-1.5 (+143)U8.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+118+0.5 (-125)O4.5 (-110)MIA-145-0.5 (-104)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (-115/-105)1.5 (-145/+114)MIA4.5 (+112/-130)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrad Lord2.5 (-142 / +115)9.5 (-124 / -107)Ryan Gusto4.5 (+116 / -140)15.5 (+130 / +134)
Ryan Gusto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ 
W4.27066024
W4.27066024Aug 9vs W4.06043122
W4.06043122Aug 4@ L6.08355011
L6.08355011Jul 29vs W5.07939266
W5.07939266Jul 24vs L3.15742111
L3.15742111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Gusto
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN6.01.50elite5.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 30vs W6.010254111
W6.010254111home starts4.06.69poor3.74.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W4.06043122
W4.06043122Jul 29vs W5.07939266
W5.07939266Jul 24vs L3.15742111
L3.15742111Trends · WSN
- WSN are 1-5 vs MIA this season (6 games).
- WSN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-1 vs WSN this season (6 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 4-1 in Ryan Gusto's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 6.4 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 6.4 runs/game in Ryan Gusto's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-2 to the over in Ryan Gusto's last 4 starts.
- MIA are 1-1 to the over in Ryan Gusto's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
- WSN — Brad Lord: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- MIA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-21 — may affect pitch count or availability
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- MIA — Ryan Gusto: recent opponents high-K: ATL 27%, LAA 26%, CIN 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TREND: WSN — was shut out 2-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
Washington's starter has no track record to evaluate, making the game impossible to handicap reliably.
TBR @ 
BAL✓7:15 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
TBR @ BAL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Freddy Peralta R
xERA6.01 (poor)ERA7.53 (poor)K%16.4 (below)
More Stats
HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs82BB%8.2
BAL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+111 (avg)12+116 (above)K%23.7 (avg)HH%45.0 (elite)Whiff%27.6 (below)
Trevor Rogers L
xERA3.72 (good)ERA3.38 (good)K%28.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs90BB%4.5
TBR vs LHP · last 6
wRC+74 (poor)12+93 (below)K%22.7 (avg)HH%40.6 (above)Whiff%21.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 4.55 (below)ERA 5.29 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 3.07 (good)ERA 5.09 (below)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+112+1.5 (-188)O8.5 (-102)BAL-130-1.5 (+159)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR+122+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (-113)BAL-140-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-115)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR3.5 (-125/+110)1.5 (-140/+110)BAL4.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFreddy Peralta5.5 (+114 / -142)15.5 (+105 / -126)Trevor Rogers4.5 (-113 / -109)17.5 (-178 / +133)
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L4.27621322
L4.27621322Aug 10@ W6.09856133
W6.09856133Aug 4@ W3.27139177
W3.27139177Jul 26vs W4.09336223
W4.09336223Jul 20@ L5.110768277
L5.110768277Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ W6.09867122
W6.09867122Aug 10@ L4.07944222
L4.07944222Aug 5vs W6.09393022
W6.09393022Jul 29@ W6.09468047
W6.09468047Jul 24vs L7.08866022
L7.08866022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL4.24.29avg2.01.03.0(1)
at BAL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L4.27621322
L4.27621322Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.16.51poor4.06.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ W6.09867122
W6.09867122May 18@ L3.28838278
L3.28838278Jul 20@ W6.09135222
W6.09135222home starts6.32.37elite6.34.70.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs W6.09393022
W6.09393022Jul 24vs L7.08866022
L7.08866022Jul 9vs W6.08945211
W6.08945211Trends · TBR
- TBR are 4-6 vs BAL this season (10 games).
- TBR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-1 in Freddy Peralta's last 3 starts.
- TBR are 2-0 in Freddy Peralta's last 2 away starts.
- TBR average 7.0 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 3 starts.
- TBR average 9.5 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 3-0 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 3 starts.
- TBR are 2-0 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 2 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 6-4 vs TBR this season (10 games).
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL have lost 4 straight.
- BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 7.2 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 3.8 runs/game in Trevor Rogers's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 to the over in Trevor Rogers's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 2-1 to the over in Trevor Rogers's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph ESE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- TBR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: last start: 76 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: 2026-08-04: 7 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 20) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
Freddy Peralta u5.5 Ks (-142)
Peralta has collected only 3, 5 and 2 strikeouts over his last 3 starts on a 16.4% K rate, and his outs line of 15.5 reflects a short leash at 4.8 IP/gs. Even against Baltimore's 23.7% K rate he averages 3.3 whiffs a start, leaving the number well out of reach; the market overrates his name here.
NYM @ CHW✓7:40 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
NYM @ CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Sean Manaea L
xERA4.33 (avg)ERA3.26 (good)K%31.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs95BB%8.8
CHW vs LHP · last 6
wRC+135 (elite)12+146 (elite)K%26.5 (below)HH%36.8 (avg)Whiff%31.4 (poor)
Sean Burke R
xERA4.08 (avg)ERA4.02 (avg)K%21.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%42.5 (below)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs86BB%7.6
NYM vs RHP · last 6
wRC+128 (above)12+130 (elite)K%22.2 (avg)HH%39.0 (avg)Whiff%21.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 3.93 (avg)ERA 3.24 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 3.33 (good)ERA 2.93 (elite)2d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+126+1.5 (-175)O8.0 (-105)CHW-148-1.5 (+150)U7.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+124+0.5 (-122)O4.5 (+110)CHW-145-0.5 (-106)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (-108/-115)1.5 (-120/-110)CHW4.5 (+114/+122)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USean Manaea5.5 (-132 / +110)17.5 (-116 / +100)Sean Burke5.5 (-148 / +120)17.5 (-130 / +102)
Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs W6.19376244
W6.19376244Aug 9@ W7.091113011
W7.091113011Aug 4@ 
W6.010077522
W6.010077522Jul 29vs W6.08945222
W6.08945222Jul 24vs L6.08436211
L6.08436211Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ W4.17225344
W4.17225344Aug 11vs L7.09483011
L7.09483011Aug 5@ L4.19145222
L4.19145222Jul 30vs W6.091103200
W6.091103200Jul 25vs 
L6.0102104123
L6.0102104123SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Burke
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM—
home starts6.31.42elite9.33.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs L7.09483011
L7.09483011Jul 30vs W6.091103200
W6.091103200Jul 25vs L6.0102104123
L6.0102104123Trends · NYM
- NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 4-1 in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 away starts.
- NYM average 5.4 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.4 runs/game in Sean Manaea's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 1-4 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 0-3 to the over in Sean Manaea's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-3 in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 3-2 in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 2.8 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 4.6 runs/game in Sean Burke's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-3 to the over in Sean Burke's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Sean Burke's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
71°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph ESE
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- NYM bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Sean Burke: last start: 72 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- CHW — Sean Burke: 2026-08-16: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TREND: CHW — was shut out 2-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression
Sean Manaea o5.5 Ks (-132)
Manaea has posted 7, 11 and 7 strikeouts over his last 3 starts on a 31.2% K rate, and he averages 6.4 IP/gs so the innings are there. Chicago strikes out at a 26.5% clip vs LHP over its last 6, a rate that feeds his swing-and-miss; the line sitting at 5.5 prices him well below his recent floor.
ATH @ HOU✓8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
ATH @ HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
J.T. Ginn R
xERA3.55 (good)ERA4.00 (avg)K%18.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%1.8 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs93BB%5.3
HOU vs RHP · last 6
wRC+74 (poor)12+70 (poor)K%25.8 (below)HH%36.0 (avg)Whiff%25.1 (below)
Hayden Wesneski R
xERA3.24 (good)ERA5.29 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.2 (avg)Barrel%7.8 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs81BB%7.1
ATH vs RHP · last 6
wRC+121 (above)12+110 (avg)K%12.2 (elite)HH%35.2 (avg)Whiff%19.5 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 4.80 (below)ERA 7.09 (poor)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 2.73 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+166+1.5 (-130)O8.5 (-102)HOU-194-1.5 (+115)U8.0 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+132+0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-114)HOU-166-0.5 (-114)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (-135/+105)HOU4.5 (-111/-115)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJ.T. Ginn4.5 (-120 / -102)17.5 (-104 / -127)Hayden Wesneski5.5 (+118 / -144)17.5 (+104 / -105)
J.T. Ginn · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L6.09478044
L6.09478044Aug 9@ W6.09525213
W6.09525213Aug 4@ L6.09155233
L6.09155233Jul 18vs W6.18271300
W6.18271300Jul 12@ L4.18676388
L4.18676388Hayden Wesneski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs 
L4.08167155
L4.08167155Aug 10@ W7.08345233
W7.08345233Aug 4vs W6.07844222
W6.07844222Jul 29@ W5.27947233
W5.27947233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
J.T. Ginn
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU3.219.69poor4.06.03.0(1)
at HOU6.00.00elite4.03.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25vs L3.28146377
L3.28146377Jul 27@ W6.07743000
W6.07743000Hayden Wesneski
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH—
home starts5.05.40poor4.75.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L4.08167155
L4.08167155Aug 4vs W6.07844222
W6.07844222Apr 19vs W5.08546122
W5.08546122Trends · ATH
- ATH are 3-3 vs HOU this season (6 games).
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH have lost 4 straight.
- ATH are 2-3 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-3 in J.T. Ginn's last 5 away starts.
- ATH average 5.4 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.0 runs/game in J.T. Ginn's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 2-3 to the over in J.T. Ginn's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 to the over in J.T. Ginn's last 3 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 3-3 vs ATH this season (6 games).
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-1 in Hayden Wesneski's last 4 starts.
- HOU are 1-1 in Hayden Wesneski's last 2 home starts.
- HOU average 6.2 runs/game in Hayden Wesneski's last 4 starts.
- HOU average 6.0 runs/game in Hayden Wesneski's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 4-0 to the over in Hayden Wesneski's last 4 starts.
- HOU are 2-0 to the over in Hayden Wesneski's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- ATH bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- HOU bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH — J.T. Ginn: recent opponents high-K: CIN 32%, TEX 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- HOU — Hayden Wesneski: 2026-08-15: 5 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
Hayden Wesneski u5.5 Ks (-144)
Wesneski is a modest 20.0% K arm who has produced just 4, 4 and 6 strikeouts over his last 3 starts. Oakland owns a 12.2% K rate vs RHP over its last 6, the best contact profile on the board, which makes reaching 6 whiffs unlikely regardless of length; the market is pricing his ceiling rather than this contact-heavy matchup.
DET @ 
KCR✓8:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumWindy
DET @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Troy Melton R
xERA2.30 (elite)ERA1.56 (elite)K%18.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.8 (good)Barrel%1.9 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs92BB%5.8
KCR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+113 (avg)12+98 (avg)K%21.4 (avg)HH%36.1 (avg)Whiff%18.9 (above)
Noah Cameron L
xERA1.92 (elite)ERA1.99 (elite)K%23.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%5.3 (good)IP/gs7.6 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs107BB%4.9
DET vs LHP · last 6
wRC+50 (poor)12+86 (below)K%31.3 (poor)HH%40.5 (above)Whiff%26.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 3.22 (good)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 4.57 (below)ERA 3.92 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET-119-1.5 (+143)O8.5 (-102)KCR+102+1.5 (-162)U8.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET-114-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-108)KCR-110+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UDET4.5 (+105/-130)1.5 (-160/+124)KCR3.5 (-135/+112)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTroy Melton4.5 (-112 / -104)17.5 (-114 / -110)Noah Cameron5.5 (+106 / -127)17.5 (-129 / +106)
Troy Melton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L4.18748113
L4.18748113Aug 9@ W6.09254101
W6.09254101Aug 4@ W7.09743200
W7.09743200Jul 28vs W7.09253200
W7.09253200Jul 23vs W5.09055422
W5.09055422Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16@ W9.011581100
W9.011581100Aug 10@ L5.210126244
L5.210126244Aug 5vs W8.010693111
W8.010693111Jul 30@ L8.09771200
L8.09771200Jul 24@ L7.0*9782300
L7.0*9782300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Troy Melton
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR5.03.60good5.05.04.0(1)
at KCR—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs W5.09055422
W5.09055422Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs DET4.06.75poor4.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 10vs L4.09544333
L4.09544333home starts6.04.50below5.76.02.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs W8.010693111
W8.010693111Jul 19vs L5.09019277
L5.09019277Jul 6vs W5.010576511
W5.010576511Trends · DET
- DET are 6-4 vs KCR this season (10 games).
- DET are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 4-1 in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 5-0 in Troy Melton's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 6.4 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET average 5.2 runs/game in Troy Melton's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-3 to the over in Troy Melton's last 5 starts.
- DET are 0-2 to the over in Troy Melton's last 2 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 4-6 vs DET this season (10 games).
- KCR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR have won 5 straight.
- KCR are 2-3 in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 3-2 in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
- KCR average 3.0 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 7.4 runs/game in Noah Cameron's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 1-4 to the over in Noah Cameron's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Noah Cameron's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Windy
85°F, Overcast, Wind 18 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- KCR — Noah Cameron: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-24 — may affect pitch count or availability
- KCR — Noah Cameron: last start: 115 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- KCR — Noah Cameron: low-K outing 2026-08-10 (2 Ks vs avg 6.3) — stuff was flat that day
- WEATHER: wind Blowing Out 18 mph from the SW — factor into total and HR expectations
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
Noah Cameron o5.5 Ks (+106)
Cameron has struck out 9 and 8 in two of his last 3 starts on a 23.5% K rate and averages 7.6 IP/gs, so length is not a concern. Detroit is slumping to a 31.3% K rate vs LHP over its last 6 alongside a 50 wRC+, a lineup expanding the zone; plus money on a deep-working lefty against a high-whiff opponent is value.
LAA @ TEX✓8:15 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
LAA @ TEX✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Reid Detmers L
xERA2.56 (elite)ERA2.00 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%10.3 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs87BB%7.6
TEX vs LHP · last 6
wRC+89 (below)12+95 (avg)K%19.8 (above)HH%40.6 (above)Whiff%17.4 (elite)
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA3.59 (good)ERA2.12 (elite)K%24.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.8 (avg)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs100BB%9.5
LAA vs LHP · last 6
wRC+2 (poor)12+41 (poor)K%23.3 (avg)HH%30.2 (below)Whiff%24.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 2.63 (elite)ERA 4.09 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 4.84 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+126+1.5 (-184)O7.5 (+102)TEX-145-1.5 (+155)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+114+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-132)TEX-138-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (+102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (+108/-125)1.5 (-110/-120)TEX3.5 (-128/+105)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UReid Detmers6.5 (+111 / -130)17.5 (-125 / -104)MacKenzie Gore6.5 (-120 / +105)17.5 (-150 / +116)
Reid Detmers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs W8.092112000
W8.092112000Aug 10vs L6.08863411
L6.08863411Aug 5@ L4.08154133
L4.08154133Jul 28vs L5.08494122
L5.08494122Jul 22vs L5.18562211
L5.18562211MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W5.29958233
W5.29958233Aug 10@ W5.110394211
W5.110394211Aug 4vs W6.09943300
W6.09943300Jul 29@ L7.09593033
L7.09593033Jul 24vs W5.09657233
W5.09657233SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Reid Detmers
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX6.03.50good8.73.71.7(3)
at TEX4.011.25poor6.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs L6.08863411
L6.08863411Jul 9@ L4.08267155
L4.08267155May 24vs W8.096141011
W8.096141011MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.45.03below7.74.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ W5.110394211
W5.110394211Jul 8vs L5.09079177
L5.09079177May 24@ L6.09971211
L6.09971211home starts5.02.40elite4.34.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 4vs W6.09943300
W6.09943300Jul 24vs W5.09657233
W5.09657233Jul 12vs W4.06542111
W4.06542111Trends · LAA
- LAA are 7-3 vs TEX this season (10 games).
- LAA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 1-4 in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-3 in Reid Detmers's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 1.2 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 4.8 runs/game in Reid Detmers's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 1-4 to the over in Reid Detmers's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-1 to the over in Reid Detmers's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 3-7 vs LAA this season (10 games).
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 4-1 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 3.8 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.2 runs/game in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 2-3 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-0 to the over in MacKenzie Gore's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 2
- TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
LAA @ TEX u7.5 (-118)
The Angels have managed a 2 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and just 41 over their last 12, and they average only 1.2 runs in these starts — they cannot generate offense against Gore. Texas sits at 89 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 facing Detmers, who owns a 2.56 xERA over his last 3 and a 3.50 ERA across 3 starts vs Texas; two capable lefties against two cold lineups makes 7.5 too high.
MacKenzie Gore o6.5 Ks (-120)
Gore has struck out 7, 7 and 9 in his three meetings with the Angels, all clearing this number, and he runs a 24.3% K rate over his last 3. Los Angeles is at a 2 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and whiffs freely, so this is the softest possible spot for his slider; the line lags his consistent head-to-head output.
CLE @ COL8:40 PM · Coors FieldHot
CLE @ COLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Joey Cantillo L
xERA3.86 (avg)ERA3.00 (good)K%30.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%56.7 (poor)Barrel%16.7 (poor)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs66BB%10.0
COL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+64 (poor)12+76 (poor)K%24.1 (below)HH%25.9 (poor)Whiff%21.6 (avg)
Tanner Gordon R
xERA4.60 (below)ERA4.05 (avg)K%16.4 (below)
More Stats
HH%52.2 (poor)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs13.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs56BB%0.0
CLE vs RHP · last 6
wRC+53 (poor)12+85 (below)K%21.1 (avg)HH%33.9 (below)Whiff%17.5 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 4.91 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 5.11 (below)ERA 3.28 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-155-1.5 (+100)O10.5 (-118)COL+134+1.5 (-110)U10.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-154-0.5 (-122)O5.5 (-122)COL+134+0.5 (-106)U5.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE5.5 (-130/+106)2.5 (-145/+114)COL4.5 (-115/-110)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJoey Cantillo5.5 (-120 / -102)15.5 (+110 / -130)Tanner Gordon3.5 (+122 / -154)14.5 (-154 / +116)
Joey Cantillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs W6.08771311
W6.08771311Aug 9@ L1.03133011
L1.03133011Aug 4vs L5.08157225
L5.08157225Jul 29@ W4.08984100
W4.08984100Jul 24@ L3.27448155
L3.27448155Tanner Gordon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ L4.0*6343000
L4.0*6343000Aug 9@ L3.1*4824022
L3.1*4824022Aug 3vs L6.0*5838046
L6.0*5838046Jul 25@ L2.0*3542111
L2.0*3542111Jul 19vs L5.2*6623111
L5.2*6623111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tanner Gordon
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE3.018.00poor2.08.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29@ L3.07128267
L3.07128267home starts5.09.00poor7.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 5vs W5.09476255
W5.09476255Trends · CLE
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-3 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Joey Cantillo's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 4.0 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Joey Cantillo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 1-4 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Joey Cantillo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 2-3 in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-2 in Tanner Gordon's last 3 home starts.
- COL average 4.6 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 5 starts.
- COL average 5.3 runs/game in Tanner Gordon's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hot
94°F, Overcast, Wind 13 mph NNE
APF 116 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
- COL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.11 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CLE bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- COL bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: 2026-08-09: 1 ER in 1.0 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CLE — Joey Cantillo: recent opponents high-K: NYM 27%, CHW 26%, SDP 34% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- COL — Tanner Gordon: 42 days since last start (2026-07-10) — may not be fully stretched out news ↗
- COL — Tanner Gordon: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-15, 2026-08-09 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 116) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
AI Analysis
Two cold offenses at Coors with hittable starters is a genuine toss-up, and 10.5 already accounts for the park.
CIN @ ARI9:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
CIN @ ARIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Nick Lodolo L
xERA4.68 (below)ERA3.86 (avg)K%18.6 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs74BB%8.5
ARI vs LHP · last 6
wRC+109 (avg)12+127 (above)K%23.8 (avg)HH%32.9 (below)Whiff%17.4 (elite)
E. Rodriguez L
xERA3.68 (good)ERA4.34 (avg)K%22.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs104BB%2.5
CIN vs LHP · last 6
wRC+98 (avg)12+56 (poor)K%35.4 (poor)HH%38.5 (avg)Whiff%22.0 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 3.04 (good)ERA 6.15 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 4.70 (below)ERA 3.76 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+130+1.5 (-164)O8.5 (+100)ARI-150-1.5 (+145)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+110+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-114)ARI-128-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-122/-104)1.5 (-140/+110)ARI4.5 (+102/-130)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNick Lodolo3.5 (-125 / +117)15.5 (+121 / -158)E. Rodriguez5.5 (+116 / -137)17.5 (-131 / -101)
Nick Lodolo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16vs L5.07323200
L5.07323200Aug 11@ W4.07055044
W4.07055044Jul 11vs L5.07845322
L5.07845322Jul 5vs W6.09746211
W6.09746211Jun 29@ L5.09641400
L5.09641400E. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W6.09655022
W6.09655022Aug 9vs W7.011595222
W7.011595222Aug 4vs L5.2102411057
L5.2102411057Jul 29@ W8.010525100
W8.010525100Jul 24@ W6.09847322
W6.09847322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Lodolo
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.54.05avg4.55.00.5(2)
at ARI—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 12vs L5.19655122
L5.19655122Jun 6vs W6.08645033
W6.08645033E. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN3.63.75good3.04.02.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 12@ W2.28532512
W2.28532512Jun 6@ L5.07236022
L5.07236022home starts4.87.50poor5.37.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs W7.011595222
W7.011595222Aug 4vs L5.2102411057
L5.2102411057Jul 19vs W2.26837255
W2.26837255Trends · CIN
- CIN are 1-2 vs ARI this season (3 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-3 in Nick Lodolo's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 3.0 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 4.8 runs/game in Nick Lodolo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 2-1 to the over in Nick Lodolo's last 3 starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-1 vs CIN this season (3 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 4-1 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 4.8 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 4.6 runs/game in E. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 2-3 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 2-1 to the over in E. Rodriguez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- CIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CIN — Nick Lodolo: last start: 73 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- CIN — Nick Lodolo: 2026-08-11: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ARI — E. Rodriguez: 2026-08-04: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
The prices line up with a matchup where Rodriguez has been hit at home and Cincinnati's bats have cooled off, leaving no clear edge on any market.
MIN @ SDP9:40 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
MIN @ SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Connor Prielipp L
xERA4.74 (below)ERA8.22 (poor)K%25.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%14.3
SDP vs LHP · last 6
wRC+70 (poor)12+129 (above)K%33.9 (poor)HH%36.8 (avg)Whiff%29.5 (poor)
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIN
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
MIN
xERA 2.69 (elite)ERA 3.00 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.33 (elite)ERA 2.49 (elite)2d stress Fresh (1.3 IP/1g)
Connor Prielipp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L5.09468488
L5.09468488Aug 9@ L5.09675233
L5.09675233Aug 1@ L5.18854433
L5.18854433Jul 26vs W5.27252111
W5.27252111Jul 8vs W5.08364233
W5.08364233Trends · MIN
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-3 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 1-4 in Connor Prielipp's last 5 away starts.
- MIN average 4.8 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 4.2 runs/game in Connor Prielipp's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIN are 2-3 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 0-2 to the over in Connor Prielipp's last 2 away starts.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- SDP are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 99 — Neutral
Flags · 4
- SDP — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- MIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP bullpen fresh (1.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIN — Connor Prielipp: recent opponents high-K: SEA 29%, MIL 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
San Diego's starter is unnamed with no stats and no odds are posted, so there is nothing to bet.
CHC @ SEA10:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
CHC @ SEAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Matthew Boyd L
xERA6.86 (poor)ERA6.16 (poor)K%10.0 (poor)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%14.3 (below)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs96BB%8.8
SEA vs LHP · last 6
wRC+86 (below)12+72 (poor)K%29.0 (poor)HH%44.6 (above)Whiff%24.4 (avg)
Emerson Hancock R
xERA2.88 (elite)ERA3.57 (good)K%21.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%25.4 (elite)Barrel%5.5 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs96BB%6.4
CHC vs RHP · last 6
wRC+93 (below)12+110 (avg)K%22.0 (avg)HH%32.8 (below)Whiff%24.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 4.84 (below)ERA 3.74 (good)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
SEA
xERA 4.47 (avg)ERA 8.78 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-108-1.5 (+158)O8.0 (-105)SEA-108+1.5 (-180)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-110-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (+110)SEA-108+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC3.5 (-132/+105)1.5 (-160/+124)SEA3.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMatthew Boyd4.5 (-136 / +118)17.5 (-150 / +114)Emerson Hancock5.5 (+129 / +116)17.5 (-140 / +108)
Matthew Boyd · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L5.19725377
L5.19725377Aug 9@ W7.09835322
W7.09835322Aug 3vs W6.29239145
W6.29239145Jul 29@ L7.08954200
L7.08954200Jul 24@ W7.09747311
W7.09747311Emerson Hancock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W7.09785222
W7.09785222Aug 9vs L4.29639122
L4.29639122Aug 4vs L6.09468234
L6.09468234Jul 29@ L5.09258133
L5.09258133Jul 22vs L6.09535122
L6.09535122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Matthew Boyd
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.03.60good6.02.02.0(1)
at SEA—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 20vs L5.07662222
L5.07662222Emerson Hancock
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.020.25poor5.06.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 21@ L4.09456399
L4.09456399home starts5.43.89avg4.07.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs L4.29639122
L4.29639122Aug 4vs L6.09468234
L6.09468234Jul 22vs L6.09535122
L6.09535122Trends · CHC
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 3-2 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 4-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 5 away starts.
- CHC average 5.8 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 5.6 runs/game in Matthew Boyd's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 2-3 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-2 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SEA
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 1-4 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-4 in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.
- SEA average 3.2 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 1.8 runs/game in Emerson Hancock's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SEA are 1-3 to the over in Emerson Hancock's last 4 starts.
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
82°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph W
APF 93 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 4
- SEA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC — Matthew Boyd: 2026-08-15: 7 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 12) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SEA — Emerson Hancock: recent opponents low-K: DET 16%, TBR 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- TREND: CHC — was shut out 3-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression
AI Analysis
A pick'em with conflicting signals — a poor Chicago starter but a below-average Seattle lineup and a wrecked Seattle bullpen — offers no reliable side or total.
PIT @ LAD10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
PIT @ LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Bubba Chandler R
xERA4.19 (avg)ERA2.16 (elite)K%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%2.3 (elite)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs89BB%10.8
LAD vs RHP · last 6
wRC+107 (avg)12+102 (avg)K%18.7 (above)HH%36.4 (avg)Whiff%25.2 (below)
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA2.30 (elite)ERA1.83 (elite)K%24.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%46.0 (poor)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs100BB%8.0
PIT vs RHP · last 6
wRC+93 (below)12+114 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)HH%37.9 (avg)Whiff%20.1 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.05 (good)ERA 3.65 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 3.50 (good)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+198+1.5 (-106)O8.0 (-113)LAD-230-1.5 (-105)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT+200+1.5 (-146)O4.5 (-102)LAD-260-1.5 (+112)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (+122/-154)1.5 (+110/-140)LAD4.5 (-120/-105)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBubba Chandler4.5 (+120 / -124)15.5 (+118 / -157)Y. Yamamoto7.5 (+124 / +118)18.5 (+119 / -158)
Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs W5.08754222
W5.08754222Aug 8vs W6.08553100
W6.08553100Aug 3@ W5.29654423
W5.29654423Jul 28vs L4.09137135
L4.09137135Jul 22@ L6.18452100
L6.18452100Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs W6.09794211
W6.09794211Aug 8@ W5.210763300
W5.210763300Aug 1vs L8.09634133
L8.09634133Jul 25@ W6.010055311
W6.010055311Jul 19@ W9.010274022
W9.010274022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT5.01.80elite5.05.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 25vs L5.09455413
L5.09455413home starts6.74.50below6.04.32.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs W6.09794211
W6.09794211Aug 1vs L8.09634133
L8.09634133Jul 11vs L6.010365466
L6.010365466Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-2 vs LAD this season (3 games).
- PIT are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 5.6 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 3.0 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 to the over in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-1 vs PIT this season (3 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-3 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 3.8 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 2.4 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 2-3 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-2 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph W
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- PIT bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
AI Analysis
Los Angeles is the rightful favorite but at -230 the price has fully absorbed Yamamoto's edge over a below-average Pittsburgh lineup.