MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 3 Bets · Oct 5

1u Picks

TBR Moneyline (+110)

NYY @ TBR · 8:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay is 9-1 at home over its last 10 games, averaging 6.0-6.2 runs scored at home in that stretch, while New York is averaging just 3.2 runs per game on the road over its last 5 starts. The Rays bullpen carries a 2.80 xERA over its last 12 games and is fresh (1.0 IP of 2-day stress) compared to a Yankees pen at 3.80 xERA with normal stress. Schlittler faced this same Tampa Bay lineup just 11 days ago and was pulled after only 3.0 innings on 70 pitches, giving these hitters a very recent look at him, and Tampa's offense has trended up to a 113 wRC+ over its last 6 games against right-handed pitching. The market prices New York as a 54% moneyline favorite despite Tampa's hot home form, elite bullpen edge and the fresher read on the opposing starter.

Found at 4:33 AM ET

Freddy Peralta Outs o14.5 (+108)

NYY @ TBR · 8:00 PM ET

Peralta has gone 15, 17 and 16 outs in his last three starts (5.0, 5.2 and 5.1 IP), clearing this 14.5 line in every single one of them on efficient pitch counts of 86-97. Tampa Bay's bullpen is fresh (just 1.0 IP of 2-day stress), so there's no pen-rest incentive to pull him early, and nothing in his recent workload suggests a shorter leash today. His 12.7% walk rate over that stretch is a touch high and is the one thing that could end an outing quickly, but it hasn't shortened any of his last three starts, and a line this far below his recent outs floor is priced for a shakier pitcher than the one on the mound.

Found at 12:19 PM ET

Cam Schlittler Outs u17.5 (+127)

NYY @ TBR · 8:00 PM ET

Schlittler's last three starts averaged 15 outs (6.0, 6.0 and 3.0 IP), sitting well below this 17.5 line, and his most recent start came just 11 days ago against this same Tampa Bay club, lasting only 3.0 IP on 70 pitches. That meeting falls inside the two-week window where facing a club this recently tends to shorten an arm's leash rather than extend it, and his own bullpen is only at Normal 2-day stress, so there's no need to stretch him deep to save it. He did throw a complete 8.0 IP game against Tampa Bay earlier this season, so this matchup isn't purely a bad one for him, but the two most recent and most relevant data points - his overall last-3 pace and his last look at this exact opponent - both point toward a shorter outing than the market is pricing.

Found at 12:19 PM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

CHW @

CLE

5:00 PM · Progressive FieldPitcher Friendly

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Anthony Kay L

xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?

More Stats

HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?

CLE vs LHP

wRC+89 (below)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%15.0 (elite)BB%7.7 (below)HH%39.1 (avg)

L12

wRC+123 (above)K%16.0 (above)Whiff%18.4 (above)BB%8.7 (avg)HH%36.6 (avg)

Gavin Williams R

xERA3.53 (good)ERA3.52 (good)K%30.8 (elite)Whiff%35.8 (elite)BB%12.3 (below)

More Stats

HH%37.1 (avg)Barrel%8.6 (avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs92

CHW vs RHP

wRC+79 (poor)K%26.2 (below)Whiff%28.4 (poor)BB%9.0 (avg)HH%38.0 (avg)

L12

wRC+106 (avg)K%27.2 (below)Whiff%26.5 (below)BB%8.8 (avg)HH%42.6 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

CHW

xERA 4.09 (avg)ERA 3.50 (good)2d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)

CLE

xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 2.47 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalCHW+130+1.5 (-181)O6.5 (-114)CLE-152-1.5 (+152)U6.5 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalCHW+135+0.5 (-125)O3.5 (-102)CLE-166-0.5 (-104)U3.5 (-128)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW2.5 (-135/+112)1.5 (+124/-160)CLE3.5 (+102/-130)1.5 (-140/+110)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UAnthony Kay—5.5 (-135 / -105)Gavin Williams7.5 (-113 / -105)15.5 (+122 / -152)

Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 27 '26vs

W5.07445211

Sep 22 '26@

W4.06547144

Sep 16 '26@

L4.06632202

Sep 11 '26@

L4.06725133

Sep 5 '26vs

L4.18236155

Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 25 '26@

W3.17445444

Sep 20 '26vs

W7.08993100

Sep 14 '26vs

L5.011374322

Sep 6 '26vs

W6.099114322

Sep 1 '26vs

W7.097132101

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Anthony Kay

IPERAKHBB

vs CLE4.71.93elite3.03.01.7(3)

at CLE4.01.12elite2.51.52.0(2)

all 3 this season · last met 19 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 16 '26@

L4.06632202

Aug 8 '26vs

W6.08346122

Jul 3 '26@

L4.04821211

Gavin Williams

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW4.84.38avg6.74.02.3(3)

all 3 this season · last met 21 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 14 '26vs

L5.011374322

Aug 8 '26@

L5.210273222

Jul 3 '26vs

W4.27965233

home starts6.02.00elite9.03.72.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 20 '26vs

W7.08993100

Sep 14 '26vs

L5.011374322

Sep 6 '26vs

W6.099114322

Trends · CHW

CHW are 8-6 vs CLE this season (14 games).
CHW are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
CHW have won 4 straight.
CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.
CHW average 5.6 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
CHW average 5.4 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
CHW are 4-1 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
CHW are 3-0 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 3 away starts.

Trends · CLE

CLE are 6-8 vs CHW this season (14 games).
CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 4-1 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE are 4-1 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
CLE average 5.0 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE average 3.6 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CLE are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 3-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE are 1-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Pitcher Friendly

61°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph NNW

APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly

Flags · 10

CHW — Anthony Kay: first start of the season — no stats available yet
CHW bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g)
CLE bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g)
CHW — Anthony Kay: last start: 74 pitches over 5.0 IP news ↗
CHW — Anthony Kay: 2026-09-22: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.90 ERA equivalent
CHW — Anthony Kay: recent opponents low-K: CLE 18%, KCR 17%
CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 74 pitches over 3.1 IP news ↗
CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-09-25: 4 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 12); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
TREND: CLE — was shut out 3-0 last time out (2026-10-03)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)

AI Analysis

Anthony Kay is making his first start of the season with no underlying stats, which rules out any prop on him and makes the side and total unreliable even though he's held Cleveland to a 1.93 ERA across three starts this season - that history can't be leaned on against a pitcher with zero current form, and Cleveland's own offense is cold vs lefties (89 wRC+ over its last 6 vs LHP, down from 123 over its last 12). Gavin Williams is a solid arm (3.53 xERA over his last 3) but his strikeout line at 7.5 sits right at his 6.7 K/start average over that stretch and matches the 6-7 K he's produced in each of his last three meetings with Chicago, leaving no room in the number, and his outs line at 15.5 already reflects his volatile recent workload (21, then 15, then just 10 outs in his last outing) with the -152 price offering no value on either side of that volatility.

NYY @

TBR✓

8:00 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12

Cam Schlittler R

xERA2.08 (elite)ERA1.17 (elite)K%34.4 (elite)Whiff%36.0 (elite)BB%9.8 (avg)

More Stats

HH%20.6 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs87

TBR vs RHP

wRC+113 (avg)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%18.8 (above)BB%7.7 (below)HH%42.6 (above)

L12

wRC+94 (below)K%25.3 (below)Whiff%19.0 (above)BB%8.2 (avg)HH%37.6 (avg)

Freddy Peralta R

xERA2.62 (elite)ERA0.56 (elite)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%27.3 (good)BB%12.7 (below)

More Stats

HH%17.5 (elite)Barrel%2.5 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs92

NYY vs RHP

wRC+98 (avg)K%27.5 (below)Whiff%32.2 (poor)BB%11.4 (elite)HH%48.8 (elite)

L12

wRC+99 (avg)K%27.0 (below)Whiff%28.5 (poor)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%39.0 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

NYY

xERA 3.80 (avg)ERA 3.51 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

TBR

xERA 2.80 (elite)ERA 2.51 (elite)2d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalNYY-123-1.5 (+148)O6.5 (-112)TBR+106+1.5 (-166)U6.5 (-104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalNYY-145-0.5 (+102)O3.5 (-102)TBR+122+0.5 (-132)U3.5 (-128)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY3.5 (-102/-125)1.5 (-120/-110)TBR2.5 (-140/+118)1.5 (+120/-154)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UCam Schlittler6.5 (-145 / +115)17.5 (-154 / +127)Freddy Peralta5.5 (+126 / -161)14.5 (+108 / +113)

Cam Schlittler · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 24 '26vs

W3.07053212

Sep 19 '26@

L6.09863313

Sep 13 '26vs

W6.09481200

Sep 8 '26vs

W7.096103011

Sep 2 '26@

W8.09992011

Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 25 '26@

W5.19344300

Sep 19 '26vs

W5.29764211

Sep 13 '26vs

W5.08640300

Sep 8 '26@

W6.09225111

Sep 1 '26vs

W6.07473011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Cam Schlittler

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR5.32.81elite7.04.71.0(3)

at TBR6.41.88elite8.04.01.0(3)

all 3 this season · last met 11 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 24 '26vs

W3.07053212

Jul 6 '26@

W8.010184011

Apr 12 '26@

L5.08587133

Aug 20 '25@

W6.29581200

Freddy Peralta

IPERAKHBB

vs NYY5.04.50below6.03.03.5(2)

1 this season, 1 last season · last met 141 days ago

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 17 '26vs

W5.09642633

Mar 27 '25@

L5.09384122

home starts5.41.11elite5.72.31.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Sep 19 '26vs

W5.29764211

Sep 13 '26vs

W5.08640300

Sep 1 '26vs

W6.07473011

Trends · NYY

NYY are 6-9 vs TBR this season (15 games).
NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
NYY are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
NYY are 4-1 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
NYY are 2-3 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.
NYY average 4.4 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Cam Schlittler's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

NYY are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYY are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
NYY are 4-1 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 5 starts.
NYY are 2-0 to the over in Cam Schlittler's last 2 away starts.

Trends · TBR

TBR are 9-6 vs NYY this season (15 games).
TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
TBR are 5-0 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
TBR are 3-1 in Freddy Peralta's last 4 home starts.
TBR average 6.2 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 4 home starts.

Over / Under

TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
TBR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
TBR are 1-4 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
TBR are 1-2 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Dome

Flags · 6

TBR bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g)
NYY — Cam Schlittler: 11 days since last start (2026-09-24) news ↗
NYY — Cam Schlittler: last start: 70 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
TBR — Freddy Peralta: recent opponents high-K: HOU 31%, BOS 27%
TREND: NYY — lost the last game 1-0 (2026-10-03)
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)

TBR Moneyline (+110)

Freddy Peralta Outs o14.5 (+108)

Cam Schlittler Outs u17.5 (+127)

Legend · badges & abbreviations

Badges

R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.

Starting pitcher · last 3 starts

xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.

Offense

wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.

Bullpen

2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.

Odds

MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.

Recent-outing table

Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.

Weather and park

APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.