LAD @ 
MIL8:00 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
LAD @ MILMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Tarik Skubal L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
MIL vs LHP
L6
wRC+117 (above)K%17.1 (above)Whiff%17.4 (elite)BB%10.0 (above)HH%45.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+97 (avg)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)BB%8.7 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
Jacob Misiorowski R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
LAD vs RHP
L6
wRC+110 (avg)K%18.1 (above)Whiff%20.2 (above)BB%11.6 (elite)HH%37.1 (avg)
L12
wRC+119 (above)K%19.8 (above)Whiff%21.5 (avg)BB%9.9 (above)HH%40.2 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 1.35 (elite)ERA 1.30 (elite)
MIL
xERA 3.49 (good)ERA 1.77 (elite)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-104-1.5 (+180)O6.5 (+114)MIL-110+1.5 (-203)U6.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-105+0.5 (-170)O3.5 (+122)MIL-118-0.5 (+130)U3.5 (-160)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD2.5 (-140/+110)1.5 (+124/-160)MIL2.5 (-135/+108)1.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTarik Skubal7.5 (+115 / -141)17.5 (-171 / +128)Jacob Misiorowski7.5 (+108 / -136)16.5 (-106 / -125)
Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
W7.075103000
W7.075103000Sep 19 '26vs W5.08638244
W5.08638244Sep 14 '26@ 
W7.09093100
W7.09093100Sep 8 '26vs W7.19454222
W7.19454222Sep 3 '26vs 
W5.2102610122
W5.2102610122Jacob Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs W5.16852200
W5.16852200Sep 20 '26@ 
W3.04441000
W3.04441000Sep 15 '26@ 
W5.08275100
W5.08275100Sep 8 '26vs 
W6.19394211
W6.19394211Sep 2 '26@ W4.09255455
W4.09255455SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.32.37elite7.06.00.7(3)
at MIL7.00.00elite9.04.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 16 '26vs L6.010977212
L6.010977212Apr 23 '26vs W6.09457044
W6.09457044Apr 14 '25@ W7.09194000
W7.09194000Jacob Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD6.01.50elite9.04.51.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15 '26@ W6.09865111
W6.09865111Jul 8 '25vs W6.091124111
W6.091124111home starts5.70.52elite6.73.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs W5.16852200
W5.16852200Sep 8 '26vs W6.19394211
W6.19394211Aug 21 '26vs 
W6.09664200
W6.09664200Trends · LAD
- LAD are 3-4 vs MIL this season (7 games).
- LAD are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 5-0 in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 3-1 in Tarik Skubal's last 4 away starts.
- LAD average 4.4 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 2.2 runs/game in Tarik Skubal's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 0-10 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 1-4 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 0-3 to the over in Tarik Skubal's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 4-3 vs LAD this season (7 games).
- MIL are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 5-0 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 5-0 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in Jacob Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 5.4 runs/game in Jacob Misiorowski's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 0-5 to the over in Jacob Misiorowski's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 0-2 to the over in Jacob Misiorowski's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
66°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph SSE
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- MIL — Jacob Misiorowski: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: 16 days since last start (2026-09-25) news ↗
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: last start: 75 pitches over 7.0 IP news ↗
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: 2026-09-19: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 0.00 ERA equivalent
- LAD — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: CIN 38%, SFG 30%, SFG 30%
- MIL — Jacob Misiorowski: 14 days since last start (2026-09-27) news ↗
- MIL — Jacob Misiorowski: last start: 68 pitches over 5.1 IP news ↗
- MIL — Jacob Misiorowski: recent opponents high-K: PIT 27%, BAL 29%, STL 32%
AI Analysis
Both Skubal and Misiorowski are making their first starts of the season by the card's own marking, so there are no current rate stats to lean on for either side of the ball, and that rules out any strikeout or outs prop on either arm outright. The only real read is each starter's history against this exact opponent — Skubal has a 2.37 ERA across three meetings with Milwaukee and Misiorowski a 1.50 ERA across two meetings with LA — and those two dominant lines largely cancel each other out rather than pointing to either side. The moneyline sits almost even at 49/51 no-vig, LA's elite bullpen (1.35 xERA) is offset by Milwaukee's much hotter recent home offense (5.4 runs per game over its last 10 at home versus LA averaging only 2.2 runs per game on the road over its last 10), and the total is already posted below the league average in a way that reflects both clubs' strong recent pitching, leaving no clear mispricing on the side, the total, or either team total.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.