MLB Game Overviews

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Updated 14:16 UTC · Odds Updated 14:11 UTC

AI Picks · 6 Bets · Aug 16
BAL Team Total o3.5 (-113)
Baltimore sits at 140 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 109 over its last 12 with a 50.4 HH%, an established and hot bat against right-handers. Freddy Peralta has a 4.96 xERA over his last 3 starts, has averaged only 4.6 IP/gs, and gave up 7 ER in one of them. With Peralta not going deep and a Tampa bullpen that has run a 4.84 ERA over its last 12, the price undervalues how many runs this lineup should put up against a struggling righty.
Found at 3:57 AM ET
MIA @ CIN u9.0 (+100)
Eury Perez carries a 2.03 xERA over his last 3 and has held Cincinnati to a 2.70 ERA across his last 2 meetings, facing a CIN lineup at just 54 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6. Miami is a disaster against left-handers at 18 wRC+ with a 45.5 K% over its last 6, and Nick Lodolo owns a 1.80 ERA at home and 2.41 across 2 starts vs Miami. Both bullpens are fresh and effective (CIN 1.92 xERA, MIA 3.59 over their last 12), so the number should sit lower than 9 given two frozen offenses and matching starter edges.
Found at 3:57 AM ET
SDP ML (-108)
Mize has handled this CLE lineup with a 2.46 ERA across his last 3 meetings including a scoreless 7-inning start at this park, and CLE sits at just 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a passive 14.3% strikeout rate. SDP brings an established 131 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 (120 over their last 12) and the far better bullpen (2.27 xERA vs 4.23 over the last 12). Priced as a coin flip, SDP is the stronger side on both run prevention and offense.
Found at 10:15 AM ET
STL Moneyline (+142)
Hunter Dobbins brings a 2.92 xERA over his last 3 and works deep into games, while Edward Cabrera has a 4.35 xERA with a 50 HH% and 12.9 BB% over his last 3, has not started in 54 days, and owns a 12.23 ERA across his last 3 home starts. Cabrera's home collapse plus rust against a Dobbins edge that goes overlooked because St. Louis sits at 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 makes +142 too long for a game closer to a coin flip.
Found at 3:57 AM ET
Logan Henderson o5.5 Ks (+114)
Henderson has struck out 7, 8, and 7 over his last 3 starts on a 32.4% K rate, and his outs line of 16.5 gives him the innings to clear this. LAD sits at a moderate 21.2% strikeout rate vs RHP over their last 6, not contact-heavy enough to derail an arm missing bats at this level. At plus money the market is underpricing a pitcher who has topped this number in every recent outing.
Found at 10:15 AM ET
Bryan Woo o5.5 Ks (-122)
Woo has struck out 6, 7, and 9 in his three most recent meetings with Houston (7.3 K/gs vs them) and carries a 27.3 K% over his last 3 starts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him the full six innings to get there, and he owns a 2.12 ERA at this park across 3 starts. The market is pricing Houston's low 18.8 team K% over its last 6 over Woo's established, repeated ability to miss bats against this specific roster.
Found at 3:57 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
BAL @ TBR
12:15 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Trevor Rogers L
xERA2.58 (elite)ERA4.50K%27.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%37.8 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs89BB%2.9
TBR vs LHP · last 6
wRC+106 (avg)12+86K%20.0 (avg)HH%21.9 (poor)Whiff%19.1
Freddy Peralta R
xERA4.96 (below avg)ERA7.90K%17.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%10.4 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs87BB%6.3
BAL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+145 (elite)12+108K%23.9 (avg)HH%50.5 (elite)Whiff%24.3
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 4.24 (avg)ERA 5.662d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 4.50 (avg)ERA 4.742d stress Stressed (8.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+131+1.5 (-175)O7.5 (-102)TBR-138-1.5 (+155)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL+105+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (+114)TBR-130-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-148)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (-125/-105)TBR3.5 (-132/+105)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTrevor Rogers4.5 (+118 / -137)17.5 (-130 / +118)Freddy Peralta6.5 (+132 / -154)16.5 (-106 / +120)
Trevor Rogers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ MINL4.07944222
Aug 5vs LAAW6.09393022
Jul 29@ DETW6.09468047
Jul 24vs ATLL7.08866022
Jul 18@ HOUW6.19987111
Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ ATHW6.09856133
Aug 4@ COLW3.27139177
Jul 26vs LADW4.09336223
Jul 20@ MILL5.110768277
Jul 11vs BOSL4.19263522
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Trevor Rogers
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR3.89.563.36.02.3(3)
at TBR3.89.563.36.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 18@ TBRL3.28838278
Jul 20@ TBRW6.09135222
Jun 18@ TBRL2.17145333
Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL
home starts4.42.714.74.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs LADW4.09336223
Jul 11vs BOSL4.19263522
Jun 25vs CHCL5.29855103
Weather · Dome
Flags · 3
  • TBR bullpen stressed (8.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • BAL — Trevor Rogers: last start: 79 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • TBR — Freddy Peralta: 2026-08-04: 7 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 20) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
BAL Team Total o3.5 (-113)
Baltimore sits at 140 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 109 over its last 12 with a 50.4 HH%, an established and hot bat against right-handers. Freddy Peralta has a 4.96 xERA over his last 3 starts, has averaged only 4.6 IP/gs, and gave up 7 ER in one of them. With Peralta not going deep and a Tampa bullpen that has run a 4.84 ERA over its last 12, the price undervalues how many runs this lineup should put up against a struggling righty.
ARI @ ATL
1:35 PM · Truist ParkHot
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Michael Soroka R
xERA4.29 (avg)ERA0.73K%24.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.3 (below avg)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs60BB%6.7
ATL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+53 (poor)12+81K%27.5 (below avg)HH%41.8 (above avg)Whiff%25.6
Bryce Elder R
xERA4.32 (avg)ERA4.50K%13.0 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%44.1 (below avg)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs94BB%10.4
ARI vs RHP · last 6
wRC+127 (above avg)12+121K%16.3 (above avg)HH%32.1 (below avg)Whiff%17.6
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.86 (avg)ERA 3.082d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.64 (good)ERA 3.682d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+114+1.5 (-190)O9.0 (+102)ATL-122-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-102+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-144)ATL-115-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+105/-135)ATL4.5 (+104/-125)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Soroka4.5 (+105 / -122)15.5 (-141 / +108)Bryce Elder3.5 (-146 / +118)17.5 (-106 / -124)
Michael Soroka · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs COLW4.17743300
Jun 19vs MINW1.0902000
Jun 13@ CINL7.09372011
Jun 7vs WSNW7.010063211
Jun 2vs LADL6.010066144
Bryce Elder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs NYML5.0105410377
Aug 5vs MIAW7.08431211
Jul 31vs WSNW6.09334311
Jul 25@ BALL5.09884412
Jul 20vs SDPW6.07745122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Soroka
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL4.53.003.54.02.0(2)
at ATL4.04.504.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 4vs ATLW5.09134311
May 13@ ATLL4.08144122
Bryce Elder
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI7.00.008.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 4@ ARIL7.08984102
home starts6.04.503.35.02.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs NYML5.0105410377
Aug 5vs MIAW7.08431211
Jul 31vs WSNW6.09334311
Weather · Hot
93°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph NW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
  • ARI — Michael Soroka: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • ATL — Bryce Elder: HH% 44% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • ARI bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • ARI — Michael Soroka: last start: 77 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • ATL — Bryce Elder: last start: 105 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • ATL — Bryce Elder: 2026-08-10: 7 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Arizona's live bats against Elder are offset by Atlanta's cold lineup against Soroka, and every price already reflects that split.
BOS @ PIT
1:35 PM · PNC ParkRainy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Patrick Sandoval L
xERA4.92 (below avg)ERA3.38K%22.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%28.3 (elite)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs88BB%12.5
PIT vs LHP · last 6
wRC+106 (avg)12+92K%31.6 (poor)HH%45.8 (elite)Whiff%27.9
Lake Bachar R
xERA4.59 (below avg)ERA5.14K%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%31.6 (good)Barrel%15.8 (poor)IP/gs7.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs39BB%7.1
BOS vs RHP · last 6
wRC+110 (avg)12+140K%20.4 (avg)HH%32.2 (below avg)Whiff%23.2
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 1.99 (elite)ERA 3.352d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 2.57 (elite)ERA 3.202d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-109-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (+100)PIT+101+1.5 (-171)U8.0 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-115-0.5 (+114)O4.5 (-106)PIT-104+0.5 (-148)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+116/-145)2.5 (+124/-160)PIT3.5 (-128/+100)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UPatrick Sandoval4.5 (-150 / +124)15.5 (+130 / +128)Lake Bachar
Patrick Sandoval · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ TORL6.08448324
Aug 4vs CHWW5.08956422
Jul 29@ ATHW5.09275222
Jul 24vs TORW4.28435200
Jul 18vs TBRW5.07659145
Lake Bachar · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ MIAL3.0*4613133
Aug 8vs NYMW2.0*3340000
Aug 5@ MILL2.0*3722111
Aug 1@ NYMW3.0*3521000
Jul 30@ NYML1.0*1000000
Weather · Rainy
82°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 102 — Neutral · Rain possible (14%)
Flags · 10
  • BOS — Patrick Sandoval: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • PIT — Lake Bachar: small sample (7.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
  • PIT — Lake Bachar: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • BOS bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • PIT bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • PIT — Lake Bachar: 58 days since last start (2026-06-19) — may not be fully stretched out
  • PIT — Lake Bachar: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-12, 2026-08-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • PIT — Lake Bachar: last start: 37 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • PIT — Lake Bachar: 2026-06-19: 1 ER in 1.1 IP skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • WEATHER: rain risk 14% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
Pittsburgh's starter has thrown just 7 innings over 3 outings and hasn't started in 58 days, making his workload and effectiveness too unpredictable to bet.
NYY @ TOR
1:37 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Ryan Weathers L
xERA2.76 (elite)ERA0.48K%20.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs100BB%10.1
TOR vs LHP · last 6
wRC+87 (below avg)12+68K%13.9 (elite)HH%17.1 (poor)Whiff%13.7
Dylan Cease R
xERA2.33 (elite)ERA2.00K%33.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%2.5 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs101BB%11.1
NYY vs RHP · last 6
wRC+67 (poor)12+79K%24.7 (below avg)HH%50.4 (elite)Whiff%22.8
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.61 (good)ERA 3.672d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.18 (good)ERA 3.722d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY+111+1.5 (-210)O7.0 (+101)TOR-118-1.5 (+177)U6.5 (+105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY+116+0.5 (-140)O3.5 (-106)TOR-145-0.5 (+108)U3.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY3.5 (+114/-140)1.5 (+105/-135)TOR3.5 (+106/-125)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Weathers4.5 (-140 / +114)17.5 (-108 / -110)Dylan Cease8.5 (-115 / -105)18.5 (+157 / +154)
Ryan Weathers · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs SEAW5.210642311
Aug 4vs STLW6.08864100
Jul 30@ CHWL7.010643300
Jul 25@ PHIW5.29776111
Jul 20vs PITW4.29957255
Dylan Cease · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs BOSW5.010475433
Aug 6@ CHCL7.0104102100
Jul 31vs STLW6.09673311
Jul 25@ BOSW9.0120121300
Jul 20vs TBRL6.010177135
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Weathers
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR4.610.764.56.00.5(2)
at TOR4.113.172.05.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 12@ TORL4.18225166
May 18vs TORW5.19077055
Dylan Cease
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY5.64.829.02.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 19@ NYYL5.010094455
May 7@ NYYL6.28991211
home starts5.73.717.05.02.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs BOSW5.010475433
Jul 31vs STLW6.09673311
Jul 20vs TBRL6.010177135
Weather · Hitter Friendly
74°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • NYY bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • NYY — Ryan Weathers: last start: 106 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • TOR — Dylan Cease: last start: 104 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
Two elite arms facing two cold lineups makes for a legitimate low-scoring game, but the total and prices already capture that.
CHW @ DET
1:40 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Sean Burke R
xERA3.86 (avg)ERA1.56K%32.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%56.1 (poor)Barrel%12.2 (below avg)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs92BB%5.9
DET vs RHP · last 6
wRC+71 (poor)12+108K%21.7 (avg)HH%30.4 (below avg)Whiff%19.8
Drew Anderson R
xERA4.25 (avg)ERA1.00K%17.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%11.5 (below avg)IP/gs4.5 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs45BB%8.6
CHW vs RHP · last 6
wRC+133 (elite)12+111K%22.3 (avg)HH%44.0 (above avg)Whiff%21.1
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 3.902d stress Stressed (7.7 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.00 (elite)ERA 2.552d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+102-1.5 (+168)O8.0 (-108)DET-108+1.5 (-190)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW-118-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (+100)DET-105+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-140/+110)1.5 (-160/+124)DET3.5 (-130/+112)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USean Burke5.5 (-128 / +109)17.5 (-110 / -112)Drew Anderson4.5 (+105 / -125)13.5 (-123 / -107)
Sean Burke · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs CINL7.09483011
Aug 5@ BOSL4.19145222
Jul 30vs NYYW6.091103200
Jul 25vs HOUL6.0102104123
Jul 19@ TORW6.29852100
Drew Anderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs CLEW4.07044211
Aug 5@ SEAL3.24203100
Aug 2@ ATHW1.1*2221000
Jul 29vs BALL1.1*3021122
Jul 27vs BALL1.2*2201000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Burke
IPERAKHBB
vs DET6.02.235.55.01.5(2)
at DET
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 31vs DETW5.19363211
Jun 5vs DETW7.09657122
Drew Anderson
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW
home starts4.02.254.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs CLEW4.07044211
Weather · Hitter Friendly
78°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
  • CHW — Sean Burke: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHW — Sean Burke: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • CHW bullpen stressed (7.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • DET bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • DET — Drew Anderson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-02, 2026-07-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • DET — Drew Anderson: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • DET — Drew Anderson: recent opponents low-K: HOU 18%, CLE 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Detroit's 71 wRC+ over their last 6 is a slump inside a 108 last-12 lineup and Chicago's high hard-hit exposure against Burke muddies the total, with no price offering an edge.
SDP @ CLE
1:40 PM · Progressive FieldRainy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Casey Mize R
xERA4.27 (avg)ERA6.46K%14.9 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%48.1 (poor)Barrel%13.5 (below avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs82BB%7.5
CLE vs RHP · last 6
wRC+88 (below avg)12+98K%14.3 (elite)HH%33.0 (below avg)Whiff%15.3
Tanner Bibee R
xERA2.91 (elite)ERA4.66K%22.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.2 (good)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs6.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%4.0
SDP vs RHP · last 6
wRC+131 (elite)12+120K%17.2 (above avg)HH%46.7 (elite)Whiff%22.8
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.27 (elite)ERA 3.262d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 4.332d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-108-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (+102)CLE+101+1.5 (-175)U8.0 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-110-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-108)CLE-112+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP4.5 (+105/+112)1.5 (-154/+120)CLE3.5 (-125/+110)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCasey Mize4.5 (+134 / -165)16.5 (-107 / -124)Tanner Bibee4.5 (+108 / -136)17.5 (-180 / +140)
Casey Mize · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs MILW6.08365222
Aug 5@ ARIL3.17719388
Jul 25vs KCRL6.08533011
Jul 19@ LAAL3.17455111
Jul 11vs PHIL5.29755234
Tanner Bibee · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ DETL6.19645256
Aug 5vs NYML5.298104034
Jul 31vs ARIL7.110033122
Jul 25@ TBRL6.010759233
Jul 20vs MINW6.09556122
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Casey Mize
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE6.12.465.35.01.0(3)
at CLE7.00.004.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 21vs CLEL6.29544022
Sep 16vs CLEL5.18787133
Jul 5@ CLEW7.010244200
Tanner Bibee
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP
home starts6.13.446.04.30.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs NYML5.298104034
Jul 31vs ARIL7.110033122
Jul 20vs MINW6.09556122
Weather · Rainy
83°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph W
APF 102 — Neutral · Rain possible (18%)
Flags · 7
  • SDP — Casey Mize: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • SDP — Casey Mize: Barrel% 13% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • CLE bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SDP — Casey Mize: 2026-08-05: 8 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 23) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • CLE — Tanner Bibee: 2026-08-11: 5 ER in 6.1 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • CLE — Tanner Bibee: high-K outing 2026-08-05 (10 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
  • WEATHER: rain risk 18% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
SDP ML (-108)
Mize has handled this CLE lineup with a 2.46 ERA across his last 3 meetings including a scoreless 7-inning start at this park, and CLE sits at just 88 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 with a passive 14.3% strikeout rate. SDP brings an established 131 wRC+ vs RHP over their last 6 (120 over their last 12) and the far better bullpen (2.27 xERA vs 4.23 over the last 12). Priced as a coin flip, SDP is the stronger side on both run prevention and offense.
MIA @ CIN
1:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Eury Perez R
xERA2.03 (elite)ERA2.50K%30.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.2 (below avg)Barrel%4.5 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs96BB%8.3
CIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+53 (poor)12+96K%25.8 (below avg)HH%37.0 (avg)Whiff%26.0
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gsH/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
MIA
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.28 (good)ERA 4.152d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 5.092d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA-118-1.5 (+134)O8.5 (-115)CIN+110+1.5 (-156)U8.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA-125-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-122)CIN+102+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA4.5 (-104/-120)2.5 (+120/-154)CIN3.5 (-140/+112)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEury Perez6.5 (-111 / -110)17.5 (-130 / +103)TBD
Eury Perez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs PITW7.010073200
Aug 5@ ATLL5.09197244
Jul 30@ NYML6.09763212
Jul 25vs SDPL7.010427133
Jul 19@ MILL6.09391300
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eury Perez
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.02.707.04.01.0(2)
at CIN5.01.808.02.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 8vs CINW5.09566224
Jul 8@ CINW5.08882011
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
  • CIN — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • MIA bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • CIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • MIA — Eury Perez: 2026-08-05: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIA @ CIN u9.0 (+100)
Eury Perez carries a 2.03 xERA over his last 3 and has held Cincinnati to a 2.70 ERA across his last 2 meetings, facing a CIN lineup at just 54 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6. Miami is a disaster against left-handers at 18 wRC+ with a 45.5 K% over its last 6, and Nick Lodolo owns a 1.80 ERA at home and 2.41 across 2 starts vs Miami. Both bullpens are fresh and effective (CIN 1.92 xERA, MIA 3.59 over their last 12), so the number should sit lower than 9 given two frozen offenses and matching starter edges.
WSN @ NYM
1:40 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Jake Irvin R
xERA5.15 (below avg)ERA7.90K%13.8 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%16.3 (poor)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs77BB%10.3
NYM vs RHP · last 6
wRC+196 (elite)12+140K%20.6 (avg)HH%48.3 (elite)Whiff%26.0
Christian Scott R
xERA2.80 (elite)ERA4.80K%29.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%39.5 (avg)Barrel%4.7 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs92BB%5.8
WSN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+102 (avg)12+103K%21.0 (avg)HH%34.0 (below avg)Whiff%21.7
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 5.16 (below avg)ERA 4.752d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.94 (avg)ERA 2.912d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+150+1.5 (-146)O8.5 (-105)NYM-159-1.5 (+130)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+140+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-118)NYM-166-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (-113/-113)1.5 (-135/+105)NYM4.5 (-110/-115)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Irvin4.5 (+134 / -164)15.5 (+122 / +124)Christian Scott5.5 (-126 / +102)15.5 (-112 / -118)
Jake Irvin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs CHCL3.18844255
Aug 5@ PHIW5.18333222
Jul 30@ ATLL5.06113255
May 23@ ATLW5.08070100
May 18vs NYML4.07466123
Christian Scott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ ATLW4.08267144
Aug 5@ CLEW5.09676233
Jul 29vs ATLL6.09875111
Jul 22@ MILL3.28964333
Jul 16@ PHIW5.27973000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jake Irvin
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.05.964.76.72.0(3)
at NYM5.05.354.55.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 18vs NYML4.07466123
Sep 21@ NYMW5.19356222
Aug 19vs NYML6.010138366
Jun 11@ NYML5.010045344
Christian Scott
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN4.06.755.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 18@ WSNW4.08154333
home starts5.01.796.03.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29vs ATLL6.09875111
Jul 8vs KCRW5.09053100
Jun 27vs PHIW4.18263222
Weather · Neutral Conditions
81°F, Clear, Wind 13 mph S
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 6
  • WSN — Jake Irvin: Barrel% 16% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • WSN bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.16 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • WSN bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • NYM bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • NYM — Christian Scott: 2026-08-10: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
  • NYM — Christian Scott: recent opponents high-K: ATL 28%, ATL 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
New York's 196 wRC+ over their last 6 against a barrel-prone Irvin is extreme and largely reflected in the price, and Scott's short recent outings don't offer a clean prop.
PHI @ MIN
2:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Andrew Painter R
xERA3.38 (good)ERA2.93K%26.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%2.7 (elite)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs79BB%11.5
MIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+101 (avg)12+90K%24.7 (below avg)HH%38.7 (avg)Whiff%27.3
Dean Kremer R
xERA3.23 (good)ERA5.63K%20.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs86BB%9.4
PHI vs RHP · last 6
wRC+108 (avg)12+113K%17.6 (above avg)HH%40.8 (above avg)Whiff%17.6
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.45 (good)ERA 4.43
MIN
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 3.79
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI-105-1.5 (+144)O9.5 (+100)MIN+100+1.5 (-170)U9.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-110+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-146)MIN-114-0.5 (+118)U4.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (-120/-105)2.5 (+105/-135)MIN4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Painter3.5 (-134 / +106)15.5 (+130 / -154)Dean Kremer4.5 (+117 / -136)15.5 (-101 / -125)
Andrew Painter · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ STLW5.19362322
Aug 5vs WSNL4.06343111
Jul 31@ BALL6.08263322
Jun 17vs MIAL2.05636266
Jun 12@ MILL5.0*7836355
Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs BALW7.08971111
Aug 5@ KCRL5.08823211
Jul 28@ DETL4.08148388
Jul 22@ BOSL6.08758166
Jul 17@ HOUW4.08354322
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI6.06.006.08.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@ PHIL6.010368144
home starts6.03.005.03.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs BALW7.08971111
Jul 8vs CHCL5.09246144
Jul 1vs CHWW6.07944111
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 10 mph NW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
  • PHI — Andrew Painter: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • MIN — Dean Kremer: 2026-07-28: 8 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters carry good xERAs but pitch short into shaky bullpens at a hitter-friendly park, leaving the total fairly priced.
STL @ CHC
3:15 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Hunter Dobbins R
xERA2.92 (elite)ERA3.78K%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%28.0 (elite)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs8.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs91BB%9.7
CHC vs RHP · last 6
wRC+139 (elite)12+111K%19.4 (above avg)HH%38.4 (avg)Whiff%17.6
Edward Cabrera R
xERA4.35 (avg)ERA5.52K%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs83BB%12.9
STL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+87 (below avg)12+102K%19.3 (above avg)HH%40.4 (above avg)Whiff%19.1
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.83 (below avg)ERA 3.292d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 3.482d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+162+1.5 (-136)O9.0 (+101)CHC-172-1.5 (+120)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+140+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-138)CHC-172-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (-120/-105)1.5 (-140/+110)CHC4.5 (-122/+100)2.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UHunter Dobbins3.5 (-128 / +102)14.5 (-154 / +145)Edward Cabrera4.5 (+123 / +122)12.5 (-135 / +102)
Hunter Dobbins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs PHIL5.09764313
Aug 4@ NYYL6.19244322
Jul 27vs CHCL5.1*8547144
Jul 22@ LAAW6.08656000
Jul 7vs MILL5.09244333
Edward Cabrera · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 23@ NYMW5.09943422
Jun 16vs COLL4.16733255
Jun 11@ COLW5.18355222
Jun 5vs SFGL3.28068188
May 20vs MILL3.06124214
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Edward Cabrera
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.04.465.07.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 19vs STLL4.199611146
Jul 28@ STLL6.09444312
home starts3.412.233.75.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 16vs COLL4.16733255
Jun 5vs SFGL3.28068188
May 20vs MILL3.06124214
Weather · Neutral Conditions
83°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph NW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: HH% 50% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • CHC bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • STL — Hunter Dobbins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: 54 days since last start (2026-06-23) — may not be fully stretched out
  • CHC — Edward Cabrera: 2026-06-16: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
STL Moneyline (+142)
Hunter Dobbins brings a 2.92 xERA over his last 3 and works deep into games, while Edward Cabrera has a 4.35 xERA with a 50 HH% and 12.9 BB% over his last 3, has not started in 54 days, and owns a 12.23 ERA across his last 3 home starts. Cabrera's home collapse plus rust against a Dobbins edge that goes overlooked because St. Louis sits at 89 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 makes +142 too long for a game closer to a coin flip.
TEX @ ATH
4:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Cody Bradford L
xERA4.33 (avg)ERA2.38K%13.0 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%41.7 (below avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs72BB%6.5
ATH vs LHP · last 6
wRC+137 (elite)12+90K%22.2 (avg)HH%30.2 (below avg)Whiff%27.0
Jacob Lopez L
xERA1.96 (elite)ERA2.60K%31.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%22.7 (elite)Barrel%4.5 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs92BB%5.7
TEX vs LHP · last 6
wRC+55 (poor)12+100K%21.4 (avg)HH%46.8 (elite)Whiff%22.5
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 4.372d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 5.01 (below avg)ERA 6.752d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-129-1.5 (+116)O10.0 (+100)ATH+122+1.5 (-135)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-125-0.5 (-106)O5.5 (-102)ATH+112+0.5 (-122)U5.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX5.5 (+110/-130)2.5 (-110/-120)ATH4.5 (+104/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCody Bradford4.5 (+124 / -145)17.5 (-111 / -118)Jacob Lopez4.5 (-130 / +104)16.5 (+106 / +100)
Cody Bradford · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ LAAL7.07515133
Aug 5vs SFGW4.17055200
Jacob Lopez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs TBRL7.09355122
Aug 5@ CINL5.08794122
Jul 29vs BOSL5.19787212
Jul 24@ MINW5.09141400
Jul 19vs WSNL4.18462222
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jacob Lopez
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX5.06.305.53.53.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 16vs TEXL5.08553422
Jul 21@ TEXL5.09364355
home starts5.42.786.34.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs TBRL7.09355122
Jul 29vs BOSL5.19787212
Jul 19vs WSNL4.18462222
Weather · Hitter Friendly
88°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph NW
APF 108 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
  • ATH bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.01 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
  • TEX — Cody Bradford: last start: 75 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
  • WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 108) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
AI Analysis
Texas is slumping to 55 wRC+ over their last 6 but sits at 100 over their last 12 while Oakland's 137 is a clear heater off 90, leaving both offenses too unreliable to price a side or total.
COL @ SFG
4:05 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Gabriel Hughes R
xERA3.81 (avg)ERA9.42K%18.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%8.7 (avg)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs80BB%9.1
SFG vs RHP · last 6
wRC+89 (below avg)12+93K%20.6 (avg)HH%40.8 (above avg)Whiff%24.6
Blade Tidwell R
xERA2.64 (elite)ERA3.55K%20.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.9 (below avg)Barrel%4.9 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs81BB%5.5
COL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+80 (below avg)12+94K%21.3 (avg)HH%37.4 (avg)Whiff%24.0
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.65 (below avg)ERA 4.192d stress Fresh (1.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 4.20 (avg)ERA 4.172d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+119+1.5 (-188)O8.0 (-108)SFG-126-1.5 (+158)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+110+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-102)SFG-135-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (-120/-105)1.5 (-140/+110)SFG4.5 (+114/+120)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGabriel Hughes3.5 (-158 / +129)15.5 (+122 / -140)Blade Tidwell4.5 (-115 / -109)16.5 (-118 / -113)
Gabriel Hughes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ ARIL4.08835377
Aug 4vs TBRL5.17774255
Jul 29@ SDPL5.07626133
Jul 22vs WSNL5.08855111
Jul 17vs CINL5.18265222
Blade Tidwell · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs HOUL5.29664111
Aug 4@ TEXL5.010036122
Apr 28@ PHIL2.0*4724122
Apr 23vs LADL2.0*2521100
Apr 17@ WSNW1.0*1000000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Blade Tidwell
IPERAKHBB
vs COL
home starts5.21.736.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs HOUL5.29664111
Weather · Neutral Conditions
68°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 8 mph W
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 3
  • COL bullpen fresh (1.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • COL — Gabriel Hughes: recent opponents low-K: SDP 17%, TBR 10%, ARI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
  • SFG — Blade Tidwell: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-04-28, 2026-04-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
AI Analysis
Two sub-90 offenses at a pitcher-friendly park point toward a lower-scoring game, but the total is already set low enough that there's no clear value.
KCR @ LAA
4:07 PM · Angel StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Noah Cameron L
xERA2.02 (elite)ERA2.08K%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%29.6 (elite)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs7.2 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs101BB%6.4
LAA vs LHP · last 6
wRC+88 (below avg)12+77K%18.2 (above avg)HH%37.9 (avg)Whiff%24.5
Ryan Johnson R
xERA6.98 (poor)ERA4.73K%15.0 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%42.5 (below avg)Barrel%22.5 (poor)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs83BB%16.7
KCR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+26 (poor)12+68K%26.2 (below avg)HH%31.7 (below avg)Whiff%20.5
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.76 (below avg)ERA 4.402d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.71 (elite)ERA 4.432d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR-108-1.5 (+140)O9.0 (-105)LAA+102+1.5 (-168)U8.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR-130-0.5 (+100)O4.5 (-140)LAA+108+0.5 (-130)U4.5 (+108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR4.5 (+100/-120)2.5 (+105/-135)LAA4.5 (+120/-148)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNoah Cameron5.5 (-154 / +123)17.5 (-130 / -102)Ryan Johnson3.5 (-158 / +131)15.5 (+128 / -157)
Noah Cameron · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ LADL5.210126244
Aug 5vs MINW8.010693111
Jul 30@ MINL8.09771200
Jul 24@ DETL7.0*9782300
Jul 19vs SDPL5.09019277
Ryan Johnson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs TEXW4.18453211
Aug 6@ BALW4.27813511
Jul 31vs MILL4.18836355
Jul 25@ SFGL3.16948188
Jul 19vs DETW5.09152311
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Noah Cameron
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.54.865.56.54.0(2)
at LAA
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 24vs LAAW6.18868333
Sep 4vs LAAW5.09355533
Ryan Johnson
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR
home starts4.44.774.33.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs TEXW4.18453211
Jul 31vs MILL4.18836355
Jul 19vs DETW5.09152311
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Clear, Wind 7 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 9
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: Barrel% 22% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: BB% 17% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
  • KCR bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • LAA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-24 — may affect pitch count or availability
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: low-K outing 2026-08-10 (2 Ks vs avg 6.0) — stuff was flat that day
  • KCR — Noah Cameron: recent opponents high-K: MIN 32%, MIN 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
  • LAA — Ryan Johnson: 2026-07-31: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Kansas City's catastrophic 26 wRC+ over their last 6 against a wild, barrel-prone Johnson creates too much variance to trust either side or total.
MIL @ LAD
4:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Logan Henderson R
xERA2.20 (elite)ERA2.50K%32.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs89BB%5.9
LAD vs RHP · last 6
wRC+95 (avg)12+68K%21.2 (avg)HH%32.0 (below avg)Whiff%23.3
Tarik Skubal L
xERA3.30 (good)ERA4.08K%25.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.3 (below avg)Barrel%10.9 (avg)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs91BB%7.1
MIL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+86 (below avg)12+101K%28.6 (poor)HH%46.7 (elite)Whiff%27.4
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.71 (elite)ERA 2.292d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 3.762d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+166+1.5 (-144)O7.5 (+105)LAD-176-1.5 (+125)U7.0 (+103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL+160+0.5 (-104)O3.5 (-128)LAD-198-0.5 (-125)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL2.5 (-150/+120)1.5 (+124/-160)LAD3.5 (-145/+116)1.5 (-166/+130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULogan Henderson5.5 (+114 / -138)16.5 (-112 / +104)Tarik Skubal7.5 (+110 / -137)18.5 (+157 / +170)
Logan Henderson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10@ SDPL6.19175133
Aug 4vs PITW6.08384122
Jul 28@ SFGW5.29372200
Jul 22vs NYMW5.08095022
Jul 17vs MIAW5.07343011
Tarik Skubal · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs KCRW5.09564233
Aug 4@ CHCL6.08564222
Jul 29vs BALL6.29264133
Jul 24vs KCRW7.191124211
Jul 18@ LAAW7.08795000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Logan Henderson
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD5.00.007.02.03.0(1)
at LAD
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 22vs LADW5.08572300
Tarik Skubal
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.52.777.05.50.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 23vs MILW6.09457044
Apr 14@ MILW7.09194000
home starts6.13.448.04.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 10vs KCRW5.09564233
Jul 29vs BALL6.29264133
Jul 24vs KCRW7.191124211
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
  • MIL bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
  • LAD — Tarik Skubal: recent opponents high-K: BAL 26%, CHC 29%, KCR 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Logan Henderson o5.5 Ks (+114)
Henderson has struck out 7, 8, and 7 over his last 3 starts on a 32.4% K rate, and his outs line of 16.5 gives him the innings to clear this. LAD sits at a moderate 21.2% strikeout rate vs RHP over their last 6, not contact-heavy enough to derail an arm missing bats at this level. At plus money the market is underpricing a pitcher who has topped this number in every recent outing.
SEA @ HOU
7:20 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Bryan Woo R
xERA3.82 (avg)ERA2.65K%27.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%7.3 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs91BB%6.1
HOU vs RHP · last 6
wRC+69 (poor)12+100K%18.2 (above avg)HH%39.1 (avg)Whiff%23.2
Hunter Brown R
xERA3.31 (good)ERA4.32K%24.6 (good)
More Stats
HH%26.7 (elite)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs95BB%10.1
SEA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+140 (elite)12+102K%20.3 (avg)HH%38.8 (avg)Whiff%24.1
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.38 (avg)ERA 8.592d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.87 (elite)ERA 2.832d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+108-1.5 (+180)O7.5 (-110)HOU-116-1.5 (+168)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+102+0.5 (-148)O3.5 (-144)HOU-128-0.5 (+114)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-115/-110)1.5 (-120/-110)HOU3.5 (-120/+105)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryan Woo5.5 (-120 / -104)17.5 (-172 / +145)Hunter Brown5.5 (-111 / -102)17.5 (-130 / -102)
Bryan Woo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ NYYL5.09253100
Aug 5vs DETW7.09153100
Jul 30@ LADL5.09185255
Jul 25@ TEXL5.09559255
Jul 18vs SFGW6.09876223
Hunter Brown · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ SFGL5.08945333
Aug 5vs TORL6.09383233
Jul 31vs TEXW5.210456222
Jul 25@ CHWW7.09072000
Jul 19vs BALL4.29243644
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bryan Woo
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.73.187.33.71.3(3)
at HOU5.72.127.05.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 12@ HOUW6.010494222
Sep 19@ HOUW5.06771100
Jul 20vs HOUL6.09166145
May 24@ HOUL6.093510022
Hunter Brown
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.32.816.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19vs SEAL6.09995222
Jul 20@ SEAW4.08976233
Apr 9@ SEAL6.09832000
home starts5.15.265.74.03.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs TORL6.09383233
Jul 31vs TEXW5.210456222
Jul 19vs BALL4.29243644
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 4
  • SEA — Bryan Woo: HH% 46% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
  • SEA bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • HOU bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
  • SEA — Bryan Woo: 2026-07-30: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Bryan Woo o5.5 Ks (-122)
Woo has struck out 6, 7, and 9 in his three most recent meetings with Houston (7.3 K/gs vs them) and carries a 27.3 K% over his last 3 starts. His outs line of 17.5 gives him the full six innings to get there, and he owns a 2.12 ERA at this park across 3 starts. The market is pricing Houston's low 18.8 team K% over its last 6 over Woo's established, repeated ability to miss bats against this specific roster.