MLB Game Overviews

Sunday, September 27, 2026

Updated 22:46 UTC · Odds Updated 22:45 UTC

AI Picks · 1 2u · 12 Bets · Sep 27
Games In Progress / Completed
HOU @ ATH o9.5 (+100)
HOU @ ATH · 3:06 PM ET
HOU's offense carries a 129 wRC+ over its last 6 vs LHP into a game against a bulk arm (Basso) sporting a 9.88 ERA and averaging just 2.0 IP/gs over his last 3 outings behind an opener who lasts under 2 innings. ATH also hit Peter Lambert for 6 runs combined in two meetings this season, including 4 ER in 2.2 IP just 3 days ago, and ATH's own offense sits at 129 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP. Two shaky pitching situations against two lineups both running hot make the posted 9.5 total too low for this environment.
Found at 3:47 AM ET
CHC @ BOS u7.5 (-115)
CHC @ BOS · 3:06 PM ET
Both offenses are cold against today's starter's hand: CHC sits at 65 wRC+ over its last 6 vs LHP (73 over its last 12, consistent), and BOS sits at 75 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP (82 over its last 12, also consistent). Sandoval's 3.16 xERA over his last 3 starts is far better than his 7.59 ERA over that span, meaning his results have been worse than his stuff, and two persistently cold lineups against a pitcher who missed bats at that rate argue for fewer runs than the market's 7.5 line implies.
Found at 3:47 AM ET
LAD -1.5 (-144)
LAD @ SFG · 3:06 PM ET
LAD's offense is running 158 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP (136 over its last 12, both elite), while SFG's offense sits at just 84 wRC+ over its last 6 vs LHP (78 over its last 12, consistently poor) facing Wrobleski, whose 1.97 xERA over his limited recent innings has been dominant. SFG's own bullpen is carrying elevated 2-day stress behind an unreliable bulk arm (Molina) who has an ERA nearly two runs above his xERA. The scale of the offensive mismatch supports a multi-run LAD margin even after paying the price on the run line.
Found at 3:47 AM ET
LAD Team Total o4.5 (-136)
LAD @ SFG · 3:06 PM ET
LAD's offense is running extremely hot, a 175 wRC+ over its last 6 games and 142 over its last 12 - both elite and in agreement that this is established form, not a one-game spike. SFG is running a bullpen game with no conventional starter, and that pen carries a 4.41 xERA over its last 12 games while already sitting at an elevated 10.0 innings of stress over the last two days. Facing a patchwork pitching staff already worn down, this is a tougher offense than the 55% no-vig price on the over reflects.
Found at 9:16 AM ET
TOR Team Total u4.5 (-105)
CIN @ TOR · 3:08 PM ET
TOR's bats are cold against left-handed pitching, running a 79 wRC+ over their last 6 games and 66 over their last 12 vs LHP, with both windows agreeing this is real and not a one-week streak. Williamson has been excellent over his last 3 starts (2.43 ERA, 0% BB rate, elite command), and this cold, low-walk TOR lineup (BB% just 6.5 last 6) isn't the group to break out against him. The market has this priced at just 49% no-vig for the under despite a lineup this cold facing a pitcher throwing this many strikes.
Found at 9:16 AM ET
CHW -1.5 (+105)
COL @ CHW · 3:10 PM ET
CHW is elite against lefties, running 135 wRC+ over its last 6 vs LHP and 150 over its last 12, a rare case where both windows agree. Freeland is the opposite: a 6.66 xERA and 10.13 ERA over his last 3 starts with a 55.3% hard-hit rate, and he has failed to complete even 4 innings in any of them. With CHW's offense this hot against a starter this poor, and the plus-money price on the -1.5, the number pays more than the moneyline for the same mismatch.
Found at 3:47 AM ET
Kyle Freeland Outs u14.5 (+118)
COL @ CHW · 3:10 PM ET
Freeland has averaged just 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3 starts (3.1, 4.0, 3.0 innings), never once approaching 14.5 outs, and his last outing ended after 69 pitches in 3.0 IP against a lineup that hits the ball hard off him (55.3% HH% over that span). CHW's own offense is running hot against lefties, which shortens his leash further. The posted 14.5 line sits well above the length he has actually given his own team lately.
Found at 3:47 AM ET
SEA -1.5 (+125)
LAA @ SEA · 3:10 PM ET
SEA's offense is elite against lefties at 129 wRC+ over its last 6 (152 over its last 12, consistent), facing a Kikuchi who is walking 15.2% of batters over his last 3 starts. On the other side, LAA's offense is stuck at 68 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP (81 over its last 12, also consistently poor) against Gilbert, whose 2.93 xERA over his last 3 is elite even with one rough 4-inning outing pulling his ERA up. The lopsided offense-vs-starter gap on both sides supports a multi-run SEA win, and the plus-money price on -1.5 is a better number than laying the short moneyline for the same read.
Found at 3:47 AM ET
Jared Jones K o5.5 (-152)2u
PIT @ DET · 3:10 PM ET
Jones has struck out 8, 9, and 9 batters in his last three starts, an elite and remarkably consistent run (K% 37.7, Whiff% 35.1 over that span) that has cleared this number by a wide margin every single time. DET's K rate vs RHP is unremarkable at 21.5% over their last 6 games, but that's still enough contact-missing chances for a pitcher generating whiffs at this rate. The market's 57% no-vig price undersells how automatically this number has been beaten across his last 3 outings.
Found at 9:16 AM ET
MIL -1.5 (-102)
STL @ MIL · 3:10 PM ET
STL's offense is one of the coldest lines on the board, a 50 wRC+ over its last 6 games and 70 over its last 12 vs RHP, both windows agreeing this lineup is not hitting right now. Misiorowski has been dominant across his career against STL specifically (3.14 ERA, 8.7 K/gs across 3 meetings, including 12 and 11 strikeout outings in his last two starts against them) on top of an elite 1.86 xERA over his last 3 starts overall. A near-even 49% no-vig price on a run-and-a-half spread badly undersells how comfortable this matchup is for MIL against an offense this cold facing a pitcher who has personally owned them.
Found at 9:16 AM ET
CLE -1.5 (+114)
CLE @ KCR · 3:11 PM ET
Messick has a 3.06 xERA and 2.76 ERA over his last 3 starts, both strong and consistent, while CLE's offense is elite against lefties at 138 wRC+ over its last 6 (122 over its last 12). Lynch is the opposite number: a 6.66 xERA and 48.9% hard-hit rate over his last 3, and CLE beat him for 8 ER in 4.0 IP the last time these teams met just 29 days ago. With Messick going deep enough to protect a lead and CLE's offense clicking, the plus-money price on -1.5 pays for a mismatch the moneyline prices more conservatively.
Found at 3:47 AM ET
Parker Messick Outs o11.5 (-111)
CLE @ KCR · 3:11 PM ET
Messick has gone 15.33, 18, and 15 outs across his last 3 starts, clearing this line comfortably every time, and KCR's lineup carries a low 4.3% walk rate over its last 6 vs LHP, meaning few free passes to extend counts or shorten his outing. CLE's bullpen is running elevated 2-day stress, giving the club extra reason to lean on him for length today. A line this far under his recent depth is priced for a much shorter outing than he has actually been throwing.
Found at 3:47 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
NYM @ WSN
1:05 PM · Nationals ParkRainy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Sean Manaea L
xERA3.19 (good)ERA4.41 (avg)K%29.2 (elite)Whiff%26.8 (good)BB%3.1 (elite)
More Stats
HH%47.6 (poor)Barrel%11.9 (below)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs89
WSN vs LHP
L6
wRC+85 (below)K%21.8 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (below)BB%9.2 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+86 (below)K%21.0 (avg)Whiff%23.1 (avg)BB%9.1 (avg)HH%36.1 (avg)
DJ Herz L
xERA7.20 (poor)ERA9.00 (poor)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%27.6 (good)BB%10.5 (below)
More Stats
HH%46.2 (poor)Barrel%23.1 (poor)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs64
NYM vs LHP
L6
wRC+104 (avg)K%13.3 (elite)Whiff%15.5 (elite)BB%9.7 (above)HH%55.8 (elite)
L12
wRC+73 (poor)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%17.8 (elite)BB%8.9 (avg)HH%51.1 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 2.98 (elite)ERA 2.40 (elite)2d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
WSN
xERA 4.39 (avg)ERA 4.37 (avg)2d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM-110-1.5 (+152)O8.5 (-102)WSN-106+1.5 (-182)U8.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM-112-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-108)WSN-110+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM4.5 (+116/-145)1.5 (-160/+124)WSN3.5 (-135/+108)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USean Manaea5.5 (-125 / +102)16.5 (-102 / -130)DJ Herz4.5 (-104 / -122)12.5 (+106 / -141)
Sean Manaea · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ WSNL6.010037155
Sep 22 '26@ TEXW6.09993223
Sep 15 '26vs BALL5.16764022
Sep 8 '26@ MIAW5.06145044
Sep 1 '26@ TBRL5.286211155
DJ Herz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs NYMW3.06526144
Sep 21 '26@ DETL4.06345244
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sean Manaea
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN6.06.69poor5.06.51.5(2)
at WSN5.17.94poor5.55.01.0(2)
all 2 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ WSNL6.010037155
Aug 15 '26vs WSNW6.19376244
Aug 21 '25@ WSNL4.29183144
DJ Herz
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM3.012.00poor2.06.01.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs NYMW3.06526144
home starts3.012.00poor2.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs NYMW3.06526144
Weather · Rainy
62°F, Overcast, Wind 9 mph NW
APF 100 — Neutral · Rain possible (33%)
Flags · 8
  • WSN — DJ Herz: small sample: 4.0 IP over 3 starts
  • NYM bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g)
  • WSN bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g)
  • NYM — Sean Manaea: 2026-09-08: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.26 ERA equivalent
  • NYM — Sean Manaea: recent opponents high-K: MIA 27%, TEX 28%
  • WSN — DJ Herz: last start: 63 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗
  • WEATHER: rain risk 33% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
AI Analysis
No side or total - Manaea is solid (3.19 xERA) but has a rough personal history against WSN (6.92 ERA across 2 meetings), and Herz is a disaster on paper (7.20 xERA, 9.00 ERA) but on too small a sample (one meaningful start) to trust as a repeatable mechanism, leaving the total and side without a clear direction given the 40% rain risk as well. Manaea's K prop is close to a coin flip at the posted number, and Herz's outs line at 12.5 already reflects the expectation of a very short outing, leaving no mispriced prop on either side.
BAL @ NYY
1:05 PM · Yankee StadiumRainy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Shane Baz R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
NYY vs RHP
L6
wRC+100 (avg)K%26.7 (below)Whiff%25.8 (below)BB%8.0 (avg)HH%32.2 (below)
L12
wRC+96 (avg)K%26.1 (below)Whiff%26.0 (below)BB%7.3 (below)HH%37.7 (avg)
Elmer Rodríguez R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
BAL vs RHP
L6
wRC+92 (below)K%27.1 (below)Whiff%22.5 (avg)BB%5.3 (poor)HH%31.0 (below)
L12
wRC+112 (avg)K%29.4 (poor)Whiff%25.5 (below)BB%6.8 (below)HH%35.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 2.14 (elite)ERA 2.28 (elite)2d stress Elevated (8.0 IP/2g)
NYY
xERA 3.27 (good)ERA 3.76 (avg)2d stress Elevated (10.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+115+1.5 (-190)O7.5 (+105)NYY-130-1.5 (+159)U7.5 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL+110+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (+104)NYY-135-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-135)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (+102/-125)1.5 (-120/-110)NYY3.5 (-120/+100)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane Baz5.5 (+122 / -151)15.5 (+136 / -159)Elmer Rodríguez——
Shane Baz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 21 '26vs TORW6.29225333
Sep 15 '26@ NYMW4.06827233
Sep 9 '26vs CLEW5.210056155
Sep 4 '26vs BOSL6.19564211
Aug 29 '26@ ATHW5.28445322
Elmer Rodríguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 31 '26@ LAAL3.29154344
Aug 26 '26vs HOUW6.08863233
Jun 21 '26vs CINL4.08044233
May 17 '26@ NYML4.16415111
May 5 '26vs TEXW4.29426433
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane Baz
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY4.88.81poor5.75.33.0(3)
at NYY5.28.65poor4.05.05.0(1)
2 this season, 1 last season · last met 40 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 18 '26vs NYYL6.1104104233
May 4 '26@ NYYL5.29645556
Aug 19 '25vs NYYL3.06537266
Elmer Rodríguez
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL—
home starts4.75.70poor4.04.32.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 26 '26vs HOUW6.08863233
Jun 21 '26vs CINL4.08044233
May 5 '26vs TEXW4.29426433
Weather · Rainy
63°F, Wind 13 mph NE
· Rain possible (72%)
Flags · 9
  • BAL — Shane Baz: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • NYY — Elmer Rodríguez: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • BAL bullpen elevated (8.0 IP over 2g)
  • NYY bullpen elevated (10.7 IP over 2g)
  • NYY — Elmer Rodríguez: 27 days since last start (2026-08-31) news ↗
  • NYY — Elmer Rodríguez: recent opponents high-K: HOU 25%, LAA 28%
  • WEATHER: rain risk 72% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
  • WEATHER: wind blowing IN 13 mph from the NE
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East)
AI Analysis
Rain risk sits at 49% today, which rules out betting either starter's strikeout or outs prop over. Baz has been hammered by NYY historically (8.81 ERA across 3 meetings) but the market already reflects a short, shaky outing at 57%+ no-vig on his under markets, and NYY's high K rate vs RHP works against a Baz strikeout under, leaving no clean prop or side to lean on given the weather uncertainty.
TBR @ PHI
2:30 PM · Citizens Bank ParkRainy, Windy
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Nick Martinez R
xERA1.63 (elite)ERA2.08 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%15.2 (below)BB%1.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%24.5 (elite)Barrel%4.1 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs72
PHI vs RHP
L6
wRC+86 (below)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%18.5 (above)BB%14.4 (elite)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+81 (below)K%17.9 (above)Whiff%20.0 (above)BB%13.2 (elite)HH%29.4 (poor)
Zack Wheeler R
xERA2.02 (elite)ERA1.83 (elite)K%33.3 (elite)Whiff%33.3 (elite)BB%5.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.8 (good)Barrel%6.5 (good)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs96
TBR vs RHP
L6
wRC+60 (poor)K%29.2 (poor)Whiff%17.9 (elite)BB%5.6 (poor)HH%27.6 (poor)
L12
wRC+90 (below)K%24.8 (below)Whiff%17.1 (elite)BB%7.0 (below)HH%36.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 2.06 (elite)ERA 3.21 (good)2d stress Elevated (9.7 IP/2g)
PHI
xERA 4.97 (below)ERA 6.38 (poor)2d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR+135+1.5 (-173)O6.5 (-115)PHI-156-1.5 (+155)U6.5 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR+135+0.5 (-130)O3.5 (-102)PHI-158-0.5 (+100)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR2.5 (-135/+108)1.5 (+124/-160)PHI3.5 (+100/-115)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UNick Martinez3.5 (-140 / +112)15.5 (+108 / -143)Zack Wheeler6.5 (+118 / +122)17.5 (-130 / +104)
Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ PHIL2.25017144
Sep 22 '26@ NYYL6.09475122
Sep 16 '26vs ATHW5.07235022
Sep 10 '26@ ATLL6.16832000
Sep 4 '26@ TEXW6.19045233
Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs TBRW6.09755011
Sep 22 '26vs MILW5.2101115133
Sep 16 '26@ WSNW7.09154100
Sep 10 '26vs HOUL7.011095211
Sep 5 '26vs ATLW6.09593211
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI2.216.36poor1.07.01.0(1)
at PHI2.216.36poor1.07.01.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ PHIL2.25017144
Zack Wheeler
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.52.08elite7.04.50.0(2)
1 this season, 1 last season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs TBRW6.09755011
May 6 '25@ TBRW7.08494022
home starts6.12.47elite8.35.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs TBRW6.09755011
Sep 22 '26vs MILW5.2101115133
Sep 10 '26vs HOUL7.011095211
Weather · Rainy, Windy
63°F, Light Rain, Wind 15 mph NNE
APF 102 — Neutral · Rain possible (21%)
Flags · 7
  • TBR offense: K% 29.2 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 17.9 supports
  • TBR bullpen elevated (9.7 IP over 2g)
  • PHI bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g)
  • PHI — Zack Wheeler: last start: 101 pitches over 5.2 IP news ↗
  • PHI — Zack Wheeler: recent opponents high-K: HOU 25%, MIL 36%
  • WEATHER: rain risk 21% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
  • WEATHER: wind Blowing In 15 mph from the NNE
AI Analysis
No side or total - Wheeler is dominant (1.88 xERA, 8.3 K/start average) but PHI's offense is below average vs RHP (86 wRC+ last 6) and Martinez has also been excellent (1.63 xERA), so both pitching staffs look strong with no clean offensive mismatch to exploit, and the posted total at 6.5 already reflects two elite arms. Wheeler's K prop at 6.5 is priced close to fair given his 8.3 average but that number already asks for a top-end outing, and Martinez's low outs/K lines already match his efficient, shorter-outing profile.
HOU @ ATH✓
3:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Peter Lambert R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
ATH vs RHP
L6
wRC+129 (above)K%18.8 (above)Whiff%26.0 (below)BB%6.5 (below)HH%32.7 (below)
L12
wRC+108 (avg)K%20.9 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (avg)BB%6.1 (poor)HH%31.9 (below)
Brady Basso LO
xERA4.01 (avg)ERA9.35 (poor)K%12.8 (below)Whiff%19.8 (avg)BB%8.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%51.3 (poor)Barrel%2.7 (elite)IP/gs2.9 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs41
HOU vs LHP
L6
wRC+129 (above)K%24.5 (below)Whiff%33.0 (poor)BB%7.5 (below)HH%30.6 (below)
L12
wRC+92 (below)K%26.0 (below)Whiff%29.4 (poor)BB%6.7 (below)HH%38.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 3.10 (good)ERA 4.48 (avg)2d stress Fresh (4.7 IP/2g)
ATH
xERA 4.71 (below)ERA 4.39 (avg)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU-172-1.5 (-110)O10.0 (-105)ATH+155+1.5 (+100)U9.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU-166-0.5 (-128)O5.5 (+100)ATH+142+0.5 (-102)U5.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU5.5 (-106/-110)2.5 (-140/+110)ATH3.5 (-140/+118)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UPeter Lambert2.5 (+126 / -161)Brady Basso—
Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ ATHW2.04112000
Sep 24 '26@ ATHW2.26266244
Sep 18 '26vs ATLL5.18766122
Sep 12 '26@ TBRL6.08546033
Sep 6 '26vs ARIL7.09867033
Brady Basso · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs HOUL1.0*1913144
Sep 22 '26vs LAAW2.05226255
Sep 16 '26@ TBRL2.25207044
Sep 9 '26vs TORW4.06843200
Sep 4 '26@ SEAW3.0*3803100
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH3.14.84below3.74.32.0(3)
at ATH2.18.57poor3.54.01.0(2)
all 3 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ ATHW2.04112000
Sep 24 '26@ ATHW2.26266244
Jun 5 '26vs ATHW5.19445411
Brady Basso
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU1.027.00poor0.04.00.0(1)
this season · last met 35 days ago
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 23 '26@ HOUW1.02204033
home starts3.07.50poor3.04.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 22 '26vs LAAW2.05226255
Sep 9 '26vs TORW4.06843200
Weather · Hitter Friendly
69°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph SW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 11
  • OPENER: ATH start Seth Johnson (RHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.8 IP (longest 2.7)), with Brady Basso (LHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — HOU's offense line is split against LHP, not the opener's.
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • ATH — Brady Basso: small sample: 8.2 IP over 3 starts
  • ATH — Brady Basso: avg 2.9 IP/gs over his last 3
  • ATH offense: Whiff% 26.0 (last 6) runs well above what K% 18.8 shows
  • HOU bullpen fresh (4.7 IP over 2g)
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: last start: 62 pitches over 2.2 IP news ↗
  • HOU — Peter Lambert: 2026-09-24: 4 ER in 2.2 IP (ERA equiv 16); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.01 ERA equivalent
  • ATH — Brady Basso: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-04, 2026-08-30
  • ATH — Brady Basso: last start: 52 pitches over 2.0 IP news ↗
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
HOU @ ATH o9.5 (+100)
HOU's offense carries a 129 wRC+ over its last 6 vs LHP into a game against a bulk arm (Basso) sporting a 9.88 ERA and averaging just 2.0 IP/gs over his last 3 outings behind an opener who lasts under 2 innings. ATH also hit Peter Lambert for 6 runs combined in two meetings this season, including 4 ER in 2.2 IP just 3 days ago, and ATH's own offense sits at 129 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP. Two shaky pitching situations against two lineups both running hot make the posted 9.5 total too low for this environment.
CHC @ BOS✓
3:05 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome) · NEUTRAL SITE
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Shota Imanaga L
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
BOS vs LHP
L6
wRC+98 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)Whiff%19.2 (above)BB%6.7 (below)HH%28.6 (poor)
L12
wRC+85 (below)K%22.2 (avg)Whiff%19.9 (above)BB%7.6 (below)HH%30.2 (below)
Tanner Houck R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
CHC vs RHP
L6
wRC+129 (above)K%25.4 (below)Whiff%21.0 (avg)BB%9.3 (avg)HH%41.5 (above)
L12
wRC+124 (above)K%19.9 (above)Whiff%18.8 (above)BB%9.9 (above)HH%37.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 3.48 (good)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
BOS
xERA 2.75 (elite)ERA 1.56 (elite)2d stress Stressed (12.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-122-1.5 (+140)O7.5 (-110)BOS+105+1.5 (-167)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-122-0.5 (+118)O3.5 (-148)BOS-102+0.5 (-154)U3.5 (+114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC3.5 (-136/+110)1.5 (-135/+105)BOS3.5 (-105/-120)1.5 (-130/+100)
Shota Imanaga · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ BOSW1.01231011
Sep 22 '26vs MIAL5.09174011
Sep 16 '26vs ATLW6.010084011
Sep 11 '26vs PITW6.010045222
Sep 4 '26@ MIAW6.09443011
Tanner Houck · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs CHCL3.05014033
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shota Imanaga
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS4.01.12elite4.03.00.5(2)
at BOS1.09.00poor3.01.00.0(1)
1 this season, 1 last season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ BOSW1.01231011
Jul 19 '25vs BOSW7.09655100
Tanner Houck
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC3.09.00poor1.04.00.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs CHCL3.05014033
home starts4.44.77below3.34.31.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs CHCL3.05014033
May 7 '25vs TEXW4.28926223
Apr 20 '25vs CHWL6.08973222
Weather · Dome
Flags · 5
  • CHC — Shota Imanaga: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • BOS — Tanner Houck: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • BOS bullpen stressed (12.0 IP over 2g)
  • TREND: CHC — was shut out 2-0 last time out (2026-09-25)
  • NEUTRAL SITE: played at Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg) — not BOS's home park. Park factor and any home-park assumption do not apply here.
CHC @ BOS u7.5 (-115)
Both offenses are cold against today's starter's hand: CHC sits at 65 wRC+ over its last 6 vs LHP (73 over its last 12, consistent), and BOS sits at 75 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP (82 over its last 12, also consistent). Sandoval's 3.16 xERA over his last 3 starts is far better than his 7.59 ERA over that span, meaning his results have been worse than his stuff, and two persistently cold lineups against a pitcher who missed bats at that rate argue for fewer runs than the market's 7.5 line implies.
LAD @ SFG✓
3:05 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Bobby Miller RO
xERA8.32 (poor)ERA5.06 (below)K%12.5 (below)Whiff%20.5 (avg)BB%8.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%50.0 (poor)Barrel%12.5 (below)IP/gs5.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs47
SFG vs RHP
L6
wRC+42 (poor)K%41.7 (poor)Whiff%34.1 (poor)BB%8.7 (avg)HH%40.6 (above)
L12
wRC+100 (avg)K%33.1 (poor)Whiff%29.8 (poor)BB%8.7 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
Carson Seymour RBP
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
LAD all hands
L6
wRC+175 (elite)K%15.1 (elite)Whiff%18.1 (above)BB%10.5 (above)HH%37.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+142 (elite)K%16.4 (above)Whiff%19.8 (above)BB%12.6 (elite)HH%37.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 2.35 (elite)ERA 2.96 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
SFG
xERA 4.41 (avg)ERA 3.47 (good)2d stress Elevated (10.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-245-1.5 (-140)O8.5 (+110)SFG+215+1.5 (+122)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-250-1.5 (+114)O4.5 (-102)SFG+205+1.5 (-148)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD4.5 (-136/+110)2.5 (-115/-115)SFG2.5 (-130/+104)1.5 (+114/-145)
Bobby Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ SFGW2.0*4251200
Sep 16 '26@ CINL2.1*4713022
Sep 6 '26vs WSNW3.0*5321211
Carson Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs LADL1.01010000
Sep 26 '26vs LADL1.0*1010000
Sep 22 '26vs MINL1.0*500000
Sep 20 '26@ LADL1.0*1802011
Sep 18 '26@ LADL1.0*1020000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Carson Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD1.00.00elite1.00.00.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs LADL1.01010000
home starts1.00.00elite1.00.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs LADL1.01010000
Weather · Neutral Conditions
64°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph W
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 8
  • OPENER: LAD start Jack Dreyer (LHP) (last 5 outings avg 1.1 IP (longest 1.3)), with Bobby Miller (RHP) expected to carry the bulk of the innings. The stats and the hand shown are the bulk arm's — SFG's offense line is split against RHP, not the opener's.
  • BULLPEN GAME: SFG have no conventional starter — Carson Seymour is listed (last 5 outings avg 0.9 IP (longest 1.0)). Expect a parade of relievers; LAD's offense is shown against all hands rather than a platoon split, and starter-based reads (SP K/outs props, F5 lines) do not apply.
  • LAD — Bobby Miller: small sample: 5.1 IP over 3 starts
  • SFG — Carson Seymour: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • SFG bullpen elevated (10.0 IP over 2g)
  • LAD — Bobby Miller: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-16, 2026-09-06
  • SFG — Carson Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-26, 2026-09-22
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)
LAD -1.5 (-144)
LAD's offense is running 158 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP (136 over its last 12, both elite), while SFG's offense sits at just 84 wRC+ over its last 6 vs LHP (78 over its last 12, consistently poor) facing Wrobleski, whose 1.97 xERA over his limited recent innings has been dominant. SFG's own bullpen is carrying elevated 2-day stress behind an unreliable bulk arm (Molina) who has an ERA nearly two runs above his xERA. The scale of the offensive mismatch supports a multi-run LAD margin even after paying the price on the run line.
LAD Team Total o4.5 (-136)
LAD's offense is running extremely hot, a 175 wRC+ over its last 6 games and 142 over its last 12 - both elite and in agreement that this is established form, not a one-game spike. SFG is running a bullpen game with no conventional starter, and that pen carries a 4.41 xERA over its last 12 games while already sitting at an elevated 10.0 innings of stress over the last two days. Facing a patchwork pitching staff already worn down, this is a tougher offense than the 55% no-vig price on the over reflects.
CIN @ TOR✓
3:07 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
B. Williamson L
xERA3.33 (good)ERA1.50 (elite)K%12.5 (below)Whiff%18.0 (avg)BB%0.0 (elite)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%8.6 (avg)IP/gs12.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs56
TOR vs LHP
L6
wRC+79 (poor)K%13.0 (elite)Whiff%11.8 (elite)BB%6.5 (below)HH%37.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+66 (poor)K%16.2 (above)Whiff%18.5 (above)BB%4.8 (poor)HH%30.9 (below)
Max Scherzer R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
CIN vs RHP
L6
wRC+99 (avg)K%24.2 (below)Whiff%22.4 (avg)BB%7.8 (below)HH%34.5 (below)
L12
wRC+80 (below)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%24.8 (avg)BB%6.5 (below)HH%36.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 3.16 (good)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
TOR
xERA 3.39 (good)ERA 3.13 (good)2d stress Stressed (13.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+150+1.5 (-142)O8.5 (-115)TOR-175-1.5 (+122)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+136+0.5 (-108)O4.5 (-138)TOR-166-0.5 (-120)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-113/-110)1.5 (-145/+114)TOR4.5 (-115/-105)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UB. Williamson2.5 (-165 / +129)14.5 (-143 / +108)Max Scherzer5.5 (+116 / -147)14.5 (-132 / -101)
B. Williamson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ TORL3.07634344
Sep 22 '26@ ATLW6.06823000
Sep 17 '26vs LADL2.0*2512011
Sep 13 '26@ MILW4.0*4722011
Sep 7 '26@ LADL4.1*8643536
Max Scherzer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs CINW7.011476111
Sep 23 '26@ BALL5.09374344
Sep 16 '26vs DETW5.07333311
Sep 11 '26vs BALL5.08337166
Sep 5 '26@ KCRW5.27625133
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
B. Williamson
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR3.012.00poor3.04.03.0(1)
at TOR3.012.00poor3.04.03.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ TORL3.07634344
Max Scherzer
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN7.01.29elite7.06.01.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs CINW7.011476111
home starts5.74.24avg4.35.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs CINW7.011476111
Sep 16 '26vs DETW5.07333311
Sep 11 '26vs BALL5.08337166
Weather · Hitter Friendly
77°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph N
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 8
  • TOR — Max Scherzer: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • TOR bullpen stressed (13.0 IP over 2g)
  • CIN — B. Williamson: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-17, 2026-09-13
  • CIN — B. Williamson: last start: 68 pitches over 6.0 IP news ↗
  • CIN — B. Williamson: 2026-04-29: 4 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 12); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.65 ERA equivalent
  • CIN — B. Williamson: recent opponents high-K: COL 31%, SDP 26%
  • TOR — Max Scherzer: 2026-09-11: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.50 ERA equivalent
  • TOR — Max Scherzer: recent opponents high-K: BAL 27%, BAL 27%
TOR Team Total u4.5 (-105)
TOR's bats are cold against left-handed pitching, running a 79 wRC+ over their last 6 games and 66 over their last 12 vs LHP, with both windows agreeing this is real and not a one-week streak. Williamson has been excellent over his last 3 starts (2.43 ERA, 0% BB rate, elite command), and this cold, low-walk TOR lineup (BB% just 6.5 last 6) isn't the group to break out against him. The market has this priced at just 49% no-vig for the under despite a lineup this cold facing a pitcher throwing this many strikes.
ARI @ SDP
3:10 PM · Petco Park
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Michael Soroka R
xERA2.32 (elite)ERA2.81 (elite)K%32.2 (elite)Whiff%30.1 (elite)BB%5.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%8.3 (avg)IP/gs8.0 IP/gsH/gs3.5PC/gs83
SDP vs RHP
L6
wRC+143 (elite)K%20.7 (avg)Whiff%24.3 (avg)BB%7.9 (below)HH%32.2 (below)
L12
wRC+146 (elite)K%20.5 (avg)Whiff%22.5 (avg)BB%8.0 (avg)HH%34.3 (below)
Randy Vasquez R
xERA5.38 (poor)ERA4.76 (below)K%15.4 (below)Whiff%16.4 (below)BB%7.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.0 (elite)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs49
ARI vs RHP
L6
wRC+91 (below)K%23.8 (avg)Whiff%22.2 (avg)BB%6.4 (poor)HH%42.1 (above)
L12
wRC+108 (avg)K%23.2 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)BB%7.7 (below)HH%43.1 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 3.01 (good)ERA 2.77 (elite)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
SDP
xERA 4.29 (avg)ERA 4.34 (avg)2d stress Elevated (10.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI-142-1.5 (+122)O8.5 (+108)SDP+120+1.5 (-140)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI-130-0.5 (+104)O4.5 (-114)SDP+108+0.5 (-135)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI4.5 (+110/-130)2.5 (+120/-154)SDP3.5 (-104/-122)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael Soroka3.5 (-160 / +127)15.5 (+128 / -170)Randy Vasquez——
Michael Soroka · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ SDPL4.27743233
Sep 22 '26@ COLW7.09392112
Sep 15 '26vs MIAL5.08062111
Sep 9 '26@ KCRL4.0*5843133
Aug 22 '26vs CINL3.18436366
Randy Vasquez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs ARIW6.06823011
Sep 19 '26vs MIAW2.0*3623000
Sep 15 '26@ COLL2.2*4415033
Sep 13 '26@ SFGW1.0*2310200
Sep 8 '26vs WSNW1.1*1521000
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael Soroka
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP4.63.91avg3.53.02.0(2)
at SDP4.26.43poor4.03.02.0(1)
1 this season, 1 last season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ SDPL4.27743233
Jul 18 '25vs SDPL5.08533211
Randy Vasquez
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI6.00.75elite1.52.50.5(2)
all 2 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs ARIW6.06823011
Aug 4 '26@ ARIW6.08012100
home starts6.01.50elite2.03.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs ARIW6.06823011
Weather
78°F, Wind 5 mph WSW
Flags · 9
  • SDP — Randy Vasquez: small sample: 5.2 IP over 3 starts
  • ARI bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
  • SDP bullpen elevated (10.3 IP over 2g)
  • ARI — Michael Soroka: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-09
  • ARI — Michael Soroka: 2026-08-22: 6 ER in 3.1 IP (ERA equiv 17); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.54 ERA equivalent
  • SDP — Randy Vasquez: 26 days since last start (2026-09-01) news ↗
  • SDP — Randy Vasquez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-09-19, 2026-09-15
  • SDP — Randy Vasquez: last start: 69 pitches over 4.2 IP news ↗
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West)
AI Analysis
No side or total here - Soroka's elite recent form (2.32 xERA) is undercut by SDP's offense being genuinely hot (143 wRC+ last 6, 146 last 12 vs RHP, both windows agreeing), while Vasquez's poor rates are partly offset by an unusual personal history of shutting ARI down. The two heavy signals point at each other rather than in one direction, so neither side nor total clears a real edge. Soroka's K prop is tempting given his 6.0 K/start average over his last 3, but the outs market already prices him for an early hook (59% no-vig under) given SDP's hot bats, so the strikeout number carries too much length risk to trust.
ATL @ MIA
3:10 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
JR Ritchie R
xERA4.49 (avg)ERA5.93 (poor)K%26.6 (good)Whiff%23.9 (good)BB%12.5 (below)
More Stats
HH%46.0 (poor)Barrel%10.8 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs85
MIA vs RHP
L6
wRC+107 (avg)K%24.7 (below)Whiff%22.2 (avg)BB%9.3 (avg)HH%37.8 (avg)
L12
wRC+118 (above)K%24.6 (below)Whiff%23.9 (avg)BB%8.8 (avg)HH%39.4 (avg)
Janson Junk R
xERA3.78 (avg)ERA7.36 (poor)K%19.2 (avg)Whiff%16.1 (below)BB%5.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%26.3 (elite)Barrel%10.5 (avg)IP/gs3.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs73
ATL vs RHP
L6
wRC+111 (avg)K%24.4 (below)Whiff%24.2 (avg)BB%8.2 (avg)HH%33.3 (below)
L12
wRC+126 (above)K%18.9 (above)Whiff%22.3 (avg)BB%8.5 (avg)HH%35.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.57 (good)ERA 4.17 (avg)2d stress Stressed (11.0 IP/2g)
MIA
xERA 3.48 (good)ERA 4.33 (avg)2d stress Normal (7.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL+100-1.5 (+168)O8.5 (+100)MIA-116-1.5 (+165)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL+106+0.5 (-138)O4.5 (-120)MIA-132-0.5 (+106)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL3.5 (-140/+114)1.5 (-166/+130)MIA4.5 (+114/+114)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJR Ritchie4.5 (+115 / -136)14.5 (-132 / +108)Janson Junk3.5 (+104 / -111)14.5 (+100 / -118)
JR Ritchie · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ MIAL5.28727244
Sep 22 '26vs CINL5.08684311
Sep 16 '26@ CHCL4.28257266
Aug 2 '26vs WSNW4.08144322
Jul 21 '26vs SDPL3.2*6843333
Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs ATLW4.26453111
Sep 22 '26@ CHCW5.08462100
Sep 15 '26@ ARIW3.07245111
Sep 9 '26vs NYML3.06008188
Sep 4 '26vs CHCL5.07543111
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
JR Ritchie
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA4.68.80poor3.06.01.5(2)
at MIA4.68.80poor3.06.01.5(2)
all 2 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ MIAL5.28727244
May 18 '26@ MIAL4.08345156
Janson Junk
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL4.18.11poor3.05.30.7(3)
all 3 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs ATLW4.26453111
Aug 6 '26@ ATLL3.04715122
May 20 '26vs ATLL5.08638088
home starts4.17.38poor3.04.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs ATLW4.26453111
Sep 9 '26vs NYML3.06008188
Sep 4 '26vs CHCL5.07543111
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 7
  • MIA — Janson Junk: avg 3.7 IP/gs over his last 3
  • ATL bullpen stressed (11.0 IP over 2g)
  • ATL — JR Ritchie: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-21, 2026-07-18
  • ATL — JR Ritchie: 2026-09-16: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.15 ERA equivalent
  • MIA — Janson Junk: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-26
  • MIA — Janson Junk: 2026-09-09: 8 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 24); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.50 ERA equivalent
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East)
AI Analysis
No side or total - both starters have ugly ERAs (5.93 and 7.36) that are considerably worse than their xERAs (4.49 and 3.78), a mismatch this large in both directions cancels out any clear lean, and neither offense is running hot or cold enough vs the opposing hand to break the tie. Junk's K prop lacks support given an inconsistent recent strikeout log (0, 4, 6), and Ritchie's outs number is already fairly priced given his short, high-walk recent starts.
COL @ CHW✓
3:10 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Kyle Freeland L
xERA6.66 (poor)ERA10.13 (poor)K%14.0 (below)Whiff%17.9 (avg)BB%3.5 (elite)
More Stats
HH%55.3 (poor)Barrel%17.0 (poor)IP/gs3.6 IP/gsH/gs7.7PC/gs60
CHW vs LHP
L6
wRC+135 (elite)K%19.1 (above)Whiff%21.9 (avg)BB%18.0 (elite)HH%50.0 (elite)
L12
wRC+150 (elite)K%21.9 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)BB%15.6 (elite)HH%52.7 (elite)
Anthony Kay L
xERA5.04 (below)ERA5.25 (poor)K%16.1 (below)Whiff%19.1 (avg)BB%7.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.7 (good)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs68
COL vs LHP
L6
wRC+36 (poor)K%31.1 (poor)Whiff%27.4 (below)BB%?HH%38.7 (avg)
L12
wRC+111 (avg)K%20.0 (avg)Whiff%19.9 (above)BB%6.0 (poor)HH%33.9 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 2.86 (elite)ERA 3.90 (avg)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
CHW
xERA 5.02 (below)ERA 4.12 (avg)2d stress Stressed (12.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+170+1.5 (-118)O8.5 (-104)CHW-196-1.5 (+106)U8.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+150+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-132)CHW-184-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (+102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (+100/-125)1.5 (-125/-105)CHW4.5 (-111/+100)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Freeland4.5 (+129 / -158)14.5 (-158 / +119)Anthony Kay3.5 (-115 / -105)—
Kyle Freeland · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ CHWL4.06227044
Sep 22 '26vs ARIL3.06929155
Sep 15 '26vs SDPW4.05018033
Aug 19 '26vs LADL3.26656144
Aug 14 '26@ SFGW8.09524111
Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs COLW5.07445211
Sep 22 '26@ KCRW4.06547144
Sep 16 '26@ CLEL4.06632202
Sep 11 '26@ STLL4.06725133
Sep 5 '26vs MINL4.18236155
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Freeland
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW4.09.00poor2.07.00.0(1)
at CHW4.09.00poor2.07.00.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ CHWL4.06227044
Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs COL5.01.80elite4.05.02.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs COLW5.07445211
home starts4.46.77poor3.75.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs COLW5.07445211
Sep 5 '26vs MINL4.18236155
Aug 25 '26vs TEXW4.29946244
Weather · Neutral Conditions
68°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph NNE
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 7
  • COL — Kyle Freeland: avg 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3
  • CHW bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.02 over its last 12
  • CHW bullpen stressed (12.0 IP over 2g)
  • COL — Kyle Freeland: last start: 69 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
  • COL — Kyle Freeland: recent opponents low-K: LAD 14%, ARI 17%
  • CHW — Anthony Kay: last start: 65 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗
  • CHW — Anthony Kay: 2026-09-22: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.38 ERA equivalent
CHW -1.5 (+105)
CHW is elite against lefties, running 135 wRC+ over its last 6 vs LHP and 150 over its last 12, a rare case where both windows agree. Freeland is the opposite: a 6.66 xERA and 10.13 ERA over his last 3 starts with a 55.3% hard-hit rate, and he has failed to complete even 4 innings in any of them. With CHW's offense this hot against a starter this poor, and the plus-money price on the -1.5, the number pays more than the moneyline for the same mismatch.
Kyle Freeland Outs u14.5 (+118)
Freeland has averaged just 3.6 IP/gs over his last 3 starts (3.1, 4.0, 3.0 innings), never once approaching 14.5 outs, and his last outing ended after 69 pitches in 3.0 IP against a lineup that hits the ball hard off him (55.3% HH% over that span). CHW's own offense is running hot against lefties, which shortens his leash further. The posted 14.5 line sits well above the length he has actually given his own team lately.
CLE @ KCR✓
3:10 PM · Kauffman StadiumNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Parker Messick L
xERA3.06 (good)ERA2.76 (elite)K%26.5 (good)Whiff%20.1 (avg)BB%4.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%44.4 (below)Barrel%4.4 (elite)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs82
KCR vs LHP
L6
wRC+102 (avg)K%21.4 (avg)Whiff%20.6 (above)BB%4.3 (poor)HH%43.4 (above)
L12
wRC+74 (poor)K%25.0 (below)Whiff%23.8 (avg)BB%8.3 (avg)HH%40.0 (above)
Daniel Lynch L
xERA6.66 (poor)ERA7.07 (poor)K%13.3 (below)Whiff%16.7 (below)BB%10.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%13.3 (below)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs75
CLE vs LHP
L6
wRC+138 (elite)K%17.4 (above)Whiff%24.9 (avg)BB%9.2 (avg)HH%34.6 (below)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%17.8 (above)Whiff%20.7 (above)BB%7.5 (below)HH%32.3 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.15 (good)ERA 2.24 (elite)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
KCR
xERA 4.44 (avg)ERA 5.08 (below)2d stress Normal (6.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE-135-1.5 (+124)O8.5 (-107)KCR+120+1.5 (-140)U8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE-145-0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-102)KCR+120+0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE4.5 (-106/-120)2.5 (+114/-145)KCR3.5 (-113/-105)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UParker Messick3.5 (-147 / +120)11.5 (-119 / -112)Daniel Lynch2.5 (-170 / +132)15.5 (+108 / -143)
Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ KCRL3.06426111
Sep 22 '26@ BOSW5.09655111
Sep 16 '26vs CHWW6.08687033
Sep 11 '26@ MINW5.19553211
Sep 5 '26vs DETL6.0103127233
Daniel Lynch · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs CLEW5.17627022
Sep 22 '26vs CHWL4.07827399
Sep 16 '26@ HOUW5.07232100
Sep 9 '26vs ARIW5.08134222
Sep 4 '26vs TORL5.07007155
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Parker Messick
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR4.52.00elite3.55.51.5(2)
at KCR3.03.00good2.06.01.0(1)
all 2 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ KCRL3.06426111
Aug 30 '26vs KCRW6.010555211
Daniel Lynch
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE4.14.39avg2.55.01.0(2)
all 2 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs CLEW5.17627022
Aug 29 '26@ CLEW3.17033222
home starts4.78.30poor2.36.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs CLEW5.17627022
Sep 22 '26vs CHWL4.07827399
Sep 9 '26vs ARIW5.08134222
Weather · Neutral Conditions
72°F, Overcast, Wind 4 mph E
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • CLE bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
  • KCR — Daniel Lynch: last start: 78 pitches over 4.0 IP news ↗
  • KCR — Daniel Lynch: 2026-09-22: 9 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 20); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.80 ERA equivalent
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL Central)
CLE -1.5 (+114)
Messick has a 3.06 xERA and 2.76 ERA over his last 3 starts, both strong and consistent, while CLE's offense is elite against lefties at 138 wRC+ over its last 6 (122 over its last 12). Lynch is the opposite number: a 6.66 xERA and 48.9% hard-hit rate over his last 3, and CLE beat him for 8 ER in 4.0 IP the last time these teams met just 29 days ago. With Messick going deep enough to protect a lead and CLE's offense clicking, the plus-money price on -1.5 pays for a mismatch the moneyline prices more conservatively.
Parker Messick Outs o11.5 (-111)
Messick has gone 15.33, 18, and 15 outs across his last 3 starts, clearing this line comfortably every time, and KCR's lineup carries a low 4.3% walk rate over its last 6 vs LHP, meaning few free passes to extend counts or shorten his outing. CLE's bullpen is running elevated 2-day stress, giving the club extra reason to lean on him for length today. A line this far under his recent depth is priced for a much shorter outing than he has actually been throwing.
PIT @ DET✓
3:10 PM · Comerica ParkNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Jared Jones R
xERA1.87 (elite)ERA1.42 (elite)K%37.7 (elite)Whiff%35.1 (elite)BB%4.3 (elite)
More Stats
HH%32.5 (good)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs77
DET vs RHP
L6
wRC+109 (avg)K%21.5 (avg)Whiff%24.3 (avg)BB%10.7 (above)HH%42.9 (above)
L12
wRC+130 (elite)K%19.8 (above)Whiff%21.0 (avg)BB%13.4 (elite)HH%42.0 (above)
River Ryan R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
PIT vs RHP
L6
wRC+112 (avg)K%21.1 (avg)Whiff%19.6 (above)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%37.2 (avg)
L12
wRC+97 (avg)K%22.8 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)BB%9.1 (avg)HH%38.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 3.14 (good)ERA 4.61 (below)2d stress Stressed (12.3 IP/2g)
DET
xERA 3.15 (good)ERA 2.90 (elite)2d stress Normal (7.3 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT-126-1.5 (+130)O8.0 (-105)DET+112+1.5 (-150)U7.5 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-118-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (+100)DET+110+0.5 (-154)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT4.5 (+110/+114)2.5 (+120/-154)DET3.5 (-110/-108)1.5 (-125/-105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJared Jones5.5 (-152 / +122)15.5 (+101 / -135)River Ryan2.5 (-123 / -104)—
Jared Jones · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ DETW4.05551000
Sep 22 '26vs STLW7.08691000
Sep 16 '26vs MILL5.09197133
Sep 10 '26@ CHWW7.09081200
Sep 4 '26vs LAAW6.09193100
River Ryan · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs PITL1.13933222
Sep 21 '26vs WSNW3.04332100
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jared Jones
IPERAKHBB
vs DET4.00.00elite5.01.00.0(1)
at DET4.00.00elite5.01.00.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ DETW4.05551000
River Ryan
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT1.116.36poor3.03.02.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs PITL1.13933222
home starts2.04.39avg3.02.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs PITL1.13933222
Sep 21 '26vs WSNW3.04332100
Weather · Neutral Conditions
75°F, Clear, Wind 10 mph N
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 4
  • DET — River Ryan: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • PIT bullpen stressed (12.3 IP over 2g)
  • PIT — Jared Jones: recent opponents high-K: CHW 30%, MIL 36%, STL 28%
  • DET — River Ryan: last start: 43 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
Jared Jones K o5.5 (-152)
Jones has struck out 8, 9, and 9 batters in his last three starts, an elite and remarkably consistent run (K% 37.7, Whiff% 35.1 over that span) that has cleared this number by a wide margin every single time. DET's K rate vs RHP is unremarkable at 21.5% over their last 6 games, but that's still enough contact-missing chances for a pitcher generating whiffs at this rate. The market's 57% no-vig price undersells how automatically this number has been beaten across his last 3 outings.
LAA @ SEA✓
3:10 PM · T-Mobile ParkPitcher Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Yusei Kikuchi L
xERA4.23 (avg)ERA4.61 (below)K%16.7 (below)Whiff%15.8 (below)BB%15.2 (poor)
More Stats
HH%51.1 (poor)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs92
SEA vs LHP
L6
wRC+129 (above)K%19.8 (above)Whiff%23.6 (avg)BB%14.8 (elite)HH%46.1 (elite)
L12
wRC+152 (elite)K%19.2 (above)Whiff%21.2 (avg)BB%13.5 (elite)HH%44.6 (above)
Logan Gilbert R
xERA2.93 (elite)ERA4.76 (below)K%26.9 (good)Whiff%36.1 (elite)BB%7.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%8.5 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs79
LAA vs RHP
L6
wRC+68 (poor)K%28.2 (poor)Whiff%34.1 (poor)BB%10.1 (above)HH%38.6 (avg)
L12
wRC+81 (below)K%28.1 (poor)Whiff%32.4 (poor)BB%10.9 (above)HH%34.1 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 4.21 (avg)ERA 5.23 (below)2d stress Normal (6.0 IP/2g)
SEA
xERA 3.52 (good)ERA 3.92 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+150+1.5 (-149)O7.5 (+110)SEA-178-1.5 (+130)U7.0 (-107)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+152+0.5 (-102)O3.5 (-146)SEA-188-0.5 (-128)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA2.5 (-145/+118)1.5 (+110/-140)SEA3.5 (-140/+110)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UYusei Kikuchi5.5 (+118 / +120)15.5 (-108 / -111)Logan Gilbert7.5 (+102 / +130)18.5 (+128 / +128)
Yusei Kikuchi · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ SEAL5.09076133
Sep 22 '26@ ATHL5.18827122
Sep 16 '26vs SEAL4.19945545
Sep 11 '26@ WSNL4.08853411
Sep 5 '26@ PITW6.08965300
Logan Gilbert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs LAAW4.06180100
Sep 22 '26vs HOUL4.081310244
Sep 15 '26@ LAAL6.09676222
Sep 10 '26vs TEXW7.0100113233
Sep 4 '26vs ATHL4.299108277
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Yusei Kikuchi
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.04.77below4.75.02.3(3)
at SEA5.53.27good5.05.01.0(2)
2 this season, 1 last season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ SEAL5.09076133
Sep 16 '26vs SEAL4.19945545
Sep 12 '25@ SEAL6.09834111
Logan Gilbert
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.03.60good7.33.02.0(3)
2 this season, 1 last season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs LAAW4.06180100
Sep 15 '26@ LAAL6.09676222
Jul 27 '25@ LAAL5.08873344
home starts5.04.20avg7.34.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs LAAW4.06180100
Sep 22 '26vs HOUL4.081310244
Sep 10 '26vs TEXW7.0100113233
Weather · Pitcher Friendly
60°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph NNE
APF 90 — Pitcher Friendly
Flags · 6
  • SEA bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
  • LAA — Yusei Kikuchi: 2026-09-16: 4 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 2.89 ERA equivalent
  • SEA — Logan Gilbert: 2026-09-22: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 3.43 ERA equivalent
  • SEA — Logan Gilbert: recent opponents high-K: TEX 25%, LAA 28%, HOU 25%
  • WEATHER: pitcher-friendly park (APF 90)
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West)
SEA -1.5 (+125)
SEA's offense is elite against lefties at 129 wRC+ over its last 6 (152 over its last 12, consistent), facing a Kikuchi who is walking 15.2% of batters over his last 3 starts. On the other side, LAA's offense is stuck at 68 wRC+ over its last 6 vs RHP (81 over its last 12, also consistently poor) against Gilbert, whose 2.93 xERA over his last 3 is elite even with one rough 4-inning outing pulling his ERA up. The lopsided offense-vs-starter gap on both sides supports a multi-run SEA win, and the plus-money price on -1.5 is a better number than laying the short moneyline for the same read.
STL @ MIL✓
3:10 PM · American Family FieldNeutral Conditions
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Andre Pallante R
xERA4.69 (below)ERA4.50 (below)K%11.4 (poor)Whiff%20.3 (avg)BB%5.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%39.3 (avg)Barrel%3.6 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs93
MIL vs RHP
L6
wRC+74 (poor)K%36.0 (poor)Whiff%29.9 (poor)BB%10.1 (above)HH%28.0 (poor)
L12
wRC+122 (above)K%28.5 (poor)Whiff%27.3 (below)BB%10.2 (above)HH%34.3 (below)
Jacob Misiorowski R
xERA?ERA?K%?Whiff%?BB%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?
STL vs RHP
L6
wRC+50 (poor)K%28.4 (poor)Whiff%23.7 (avg)BB%8.0 (avg)HH%42.2 (above)
L12
wRC+70 (poor)K%23.0 (avg)Whiff%21.4 (avg)BB%8.3 (avg)HH%42.7 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.23 (avg)ERA 3.04 (good)2d stress Normal (6.3 IP/2g)
MIL
xERA 3.51 (good)ERA 2.45 (elite)2d stress Elevated (9.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+202+1.5 (-115)O7.5 (+118)MIL-245-1.5 (-102)U7.0 (-120)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+215+0.5 (+120)O3.5 (-102)MIL-280-0.5 (-156)U3.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL2.5 (-105/-115)0.5 (-154/+120)MIL4.5 (+118/+120)2.5 (+130/-166)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndre Pallante4.5 (+133 / +130)15.5 (+112 / -148)Jacob Misiorowski6.5 (-111 / -110)—
Andre Pallante · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ MILL5.091410166
Sep 22 '26@ PITL6.08923211
Sep 15 '26vs SFGL5.09928268
Sep 9 '26@ SFGL5.08845011
Sep 4 '26@ COLW5.07212411
Jacob Misiorowski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs STLW5.16852200
Sep 20 '26@ BALW3.04441000
Sep 15 '26@ PITW5.08275100
Sep 8 '26vs CHCW6.19394211
Sep 2 '26@ CHCW4.09255455
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andre Pallante
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL5.39.56poor3.08.71.7(3)
at MIL4.77.02poor3.75.72.3(3)
all 3 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ MILL5.091410166
Jul 9 '26vs MILL5.09728266
May 6 '26vs MILL6.010438255
Sep 12 '25@ MILL5.07203425
Jun 14 '25@ MILW4.18274234
Jacob Misiorowski
IPERAKHBB
vs STL6.41.88elite9.32.31.0(3)
all 3 this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs STLW5.16852200
Jul 7 '26@ STLW7.0103113033
May 25 '26vs STLW7.096122111
home starts5.70.52elite6.73.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs STLW5.16852200
Sep 8 '26vs CHCW6.19394211
Aug 21 '26vs ATLW6.09664200
Weather · Neutral Conditions
69°F, Mainly Clear, Wind 6 mph E
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 9
  • MIL — Jacob Misiorowski: first start of the season — no stats available yet
  • STL — Andre Pallante: Whiff% 20.3 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 11.4 shows
  • STL offense: K% 28.4 (last 6) runs well above what Whiff% 23.7 supports
  • MIL bullpen elevated (9.0 IP over 2g)
  • STL — Andre Pallante: 2026-09-15: 6 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 11); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 1.65 ERA equivalent
  • STL — Andre Pallante: recent opponents high-K: SFG 42%, SFG 42%
  • MIL — Jacob Misiorowski: last start: 44 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
  • MIL — Jacob Misiorowski: recent opponents high-K: CHC 25%, BAL 27%
  • TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central)
MIL -1.5 (-102)
STL's offense is one of the coldest lines on the board, a 50 wRC+ over its last 6 games and 70 over its last 12 vs RHP, both windows agreeing this lineup is not hitting right now. Misiorowski has been dominant across his career against STL specifically (3.14 ERA, 8.7 K/gs across 3 meetings, including 12 and 11 strikeout outings in his last two starts against them) on top of an elite 1.86 xERA over his last 3 starts overall. A near-even 49% no-vig price on a run-and-a-half spread badly undersells how comfortable this matchup is for MIL against an offense this cold facing a pitcher who has personally owned them.
TEX @ MIN
3:10 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
MacKenzie Gore L
xERA5.61 (poor)ERA5.54 (poor)K%7.0 (poor)Whiff%10.3 (poor)BB%12.3 (below)
More Stats
HH%39.1 (avg)Barrel%13.0 (below)IP/gs4.3 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs57
MIN vs LHP
L6
wRC+102 (avg)K%20.2 (avg)Whiff%20.3 (above)BB%4.8 (poor)HH%31.8 (below)
L12
wRC+79 (poor)K%23.4 (avg)Whiff%24.1 (avg)BB%5.7 (poor)HH%31.4 (below)
Dean Kremer R
xERA3.39 (good)ERA1.62 (elite)K%26.2 (good)Whiff%30.5 (elite)BB%8.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.8 (good)Barrel%10.3 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs88
TEX vs RHP
L6
wRC+61 (poor)K%25.3 (below)Whiff%26.8 (below)BB%11.4 (elite)HH%33.7 (below)
L12
wRC+71 (poor)K%25.8 (below)Whiff%29.1 (poor)BB%9.4 (avg)HH%37.7 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.68 (good)ERA 4.45 (avg)2d stress Elevated (8.7 IP/2g)
MIN
xERA 4.16 (avg)ERA 3.97 (avg)2d stress Normal (7.0 IP/2g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-124-1.5 (+134)O8.5 (+100)MIN+106+1.5 (-158)U8.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-122-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-108)MIN-102+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX4.5 (+110/-130)1.5 (-160/+124)MIN3.5 (-115/-105)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMacKenzie Gore4.5 (+115 / -126)14.5 (-116 / -114)Dean Kremer4.5 (-115 / -102)15.5 (-112 / -111)
MacKenzie Gore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ MINL2.12501111
Sep 22 '26vs NYML5.07724112
Sep 16 '26vs BOSW4.06902333
Sep 11 '26@ ARIL4.07625344
Sep 6 '26vs TBRW3.06818355
Dean Kremer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs TEXW7.07443011
Sep 20 '26@ LAAW6.09681300
Sep 14 '26vs NYYL5.29452111
Sep 8 '26@ DETW5.06935122
Sep 2 '26vs DETL4.07956244
SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
MacKenzie Gore
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.73.83avg4.72.03.0(3)
at MIN3.52.54elite2.01.03.5(2)
2 this season, 1 last season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ MINL2.12501111
Jun 15 '26vs MINL7.0102104244
Jul 25 '25@ MINL5.010141611
Dean Kremer
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX7.01.29elite4.03.00.0(1)
this season · last met today
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs TEXW7.07443011
home starts5.43.33good4.73.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26vs TEXW7.07443011
Sep 14 '26vs NYYL5.29452111
Sep 2 '26vs DETL4.07956244
Weather · Hitter Friendly
66°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph NNE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
  • TEX bullpen elevated (8.7 IP over 2g)
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: last start: 77 pitches over 5.0 IP news ↗
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: 2026-09-11: 4 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 9); the other 2 start(s) in the 3-game window average 4.28 ERA equivalent
  • TEX — MacKenzie Gore: recent opponents low-K: ARI 17%, NYM 13%
  • MIN — Dean Kremer: recent opponents high-K: NYY 27%, LAA 28%
AI Analysis
No side or total - Gore has been dreadful in his last 3 starts (5.54 ERA, 5.61 xERA, K-BB negative) but has a surprisingly strong personal history against MIN, while Kremer has been excellent (1.67 ERA, 3.39 xERA) but MIN's offense vs LHP is only average (102 wRC+ last 6), leaving no offense clearly overwhelming a pitcher. Both starters' K and outs props are priced close to their recent form with no lineup-side mismatch extreme enough to exploit.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.