MLB Game Overviews

Boston sits at an elite 154 wRC+ over their last 12 vs right-handers with a low 17.2% strikeout rate, a lineup that puts the ball in play and punishes it. Taillon has been battered for a 7.95 xERA, 20% barrel rate, and 10.22 ERA over his last 3 while averaging only 4.1 innings, pushing this early to a Toronto bullpen already stretched. At -106 the market underprices a top offense against a collapsing arm.

Boston's 154 wRC+ vs right-handers over their last 12 is the strongest offense on the slate, and Taillon has been hammered for a 20% barrel rate and 7.95 xERA over his last 3 while lasting just 4.1 innings a start. Gray backs it with a 3.67 xERA over his last 3, and Boston's bullpen has been dominant at a 2.11 xERA over their last 12. At +105 the run line pays plus money for a team that should win this by multiple runs.

Scott carries a 30.3% strikeout rate over his last 3 starts and has punched out at least 6 in each (6, 7, 7). Atlanta has struck out at a 23.3% clip over their last 12 vs right-handers, enough contact-shy swing-and-miss to keep his total climbing. With New York's bullpen taxed, he is set up to work deep rather than get an early hook. At +106 the number sits a half-strikeout below his recent floor.

Scott brings a 2.55 xERA and 30.3 K% over his last 3 into a matchup with an ATL lineup at just 92 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 12. Elder's shiny 1.50 ERA over his last 3 is unearned — his 3.83 xERA, 44.9 HH%, and 12.5 BB% say the runs are coming, and the Mets' bullpen (2.79 xERA, 2.20 ERA over the last 12) is far better than Atlanta's. The market is pricing Elder's ERA rather than his peripherals, leaving the better arm and better pen as a plus-money underdog.

Kremer has struck out 5, 4, and 2 over his last 3 starts, a 15.9% strikeout rate, and has averaged just 5.0 innings a start, so he rarely gets a third look at a lineup. Baltimore does miss at a 22.9% clip over their last 12 vs right-handers, which is the one thing arguing the other way, but 5.5 is a number he has not reached once in three tries; clearing it would take his best swing-and-miss game in a month. At -134 the under is the side.

Rogers owns a 28.0% K rate over his last 3 starts and has recorded 6, 6, and 9 strikeouts in them — and those totals came against Atlanta (16% K) and Detroit (19% K), lineups that make far more contact than Minnesota's 22.9% K rate vs LHP over its last 12. He averages 6.3 IP over his last 3, giving him the length to clear a low number. The market set this at 4.5 as if his recent Ks are unrepeatable, but the opponent here fans more, not less.

Dobbins is a low-strikeout arm at 17.6 K% over his last 3 starts, and his recent counts of 4, 5, and 4 were built against high-whiff lineups (LAA 29%, NYY 28%). Philadelphia is the most contact-heavy lineup on the board at just 14.9 K% vs RHP over their last 12, a spot that suppresses his already modest strikeout total. Getting plus money on the under against the lowest-K opponent he has faced is value the market has not priced.