AI Picks · 2 Bets · Oct 13
2u Picks
1u Picks
Freddy Peralta Outs o13.5 (-124)
CLE @ TBR · 8:00 PM ET
Peralta has worked 15, 17 and 16 outs in his last three starts behind a 1.15 ERA and 3.01 xERA, consistently reaching into the 5th and 6th inning on 86-97 pitch counts. His own bullpen carries only Normal 2-day stress (3.0 IP), so Tampa Bay has no bullpen-driven reason to shorten him. A 13.5-out line asks for barely 4.1 innings from a pitcher averaging well over 5 IP/gs across that stretch, and the near-even price doesn't reflect how routinely he's cleared that bar. The 18 days since his last start is the one real risk to a quick early hook, but a pitcher this sharp coming off that much rest has typically been handled normally rather than on a tight count in recent form.
Found at 6:16 AM ET
Parker Messick Outs o14.5 (-126)
CLE @ TBR · 8:00 PM ET
Messick has gone 18, 17 and 23 outs across his last three meetings with Tampa Bay (1.47 ERA, 6.1 IP/gs, two of those three starts from this season), a much deeper mark than his 3.2 IP/gs average over his last three starts overall, which was dragged down by an uncharacteristic 3.0 IP outing against Kansas City. Cleveland's bullpen already carries Elevated 2-day stress at 5.0 innings, giving the club real incentive to stretch him if he's working efficiently. His 14.9% walk rate over his last three starts and 16 days of rest are genuine risks to an early hook, but his specific history against this Tampa Bay lineup is a pattern of length the market isn't pricing into an outs line this close to his overall, matchup-blind average.
Found at 6:16 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
CLE @ 
TBR✓8:00 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
CLE @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6/12
Parker Messick L
xERA5.24 (below)ERA4.66 (below)K%27.7 (good)Whiff%29.9 (elite)BB%14.9 (poor)
More Stats
HH%51.8 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below)IP/gs3.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs82
TBR vs LHP
L6
wRC+113 (avg)K%16.9 (above)Whiff%18.8 (above)BB%10.4 (above)HH%33.9 (below)
L12
wRC+74 (poor)K%20.8 (avg)Whiff%21.1 (avg)BB%6.9 (below)HH%35.7 (avg)
Freddy Peralta R
xERA3.01 (good)ERA1.15 (elite)K%20.6 (avg)Whiff%28.5 (elite)BB%9.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%27.9 (elite)Barrel%4.7 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs92
CLE vs RHP
L6
wRC+121 (above)K%22.1 (avg)Whiff%20.2 (above)BB%9.7 (above)HH%40.0 (above)
L12
wRC+133 (elite)K%18.3 (above)Whiff%18.4 (above)BB%12.9 (elite)HH%39.5 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 3.91 (avg)ERA 2.87 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 3.65 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+113+1.5 (-190)O7.0 (+102)TBR-130-1.5 (+172)U6.5 (+108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+110+0.5 (-148)O3.5 (-132)TBR-128-0.5 (+114)U3.5 (+102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE3.5 (+120/-148)1.5 (-110/-120)TBR3.5 (+104/-125)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UParker Messick4.5 (-110 / -106)14.5 (-132 / +115)Freddy Peralta3.5 (-130 / +108)13.5 (-132 / +109)
Parker Messick · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 27 '26@ 
L3.06426111
L3.06426111Sep 22 '26@ 
W5.09655111
W5.09655111Sep 16 '26vs 
W6.08687033
W6.08687033Sep 11 '26@ 
W5.19553211
W5.19553211Sep 5 '26vs 
L6.0103127233
L6.0103127233Freddy Peralta · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25 '26@ 
W5.19344300
W5.19344300Sep 19 '26vs W5.29764211
W5.29764211Sep 13 '26vs 
W5.08640300
W5.08640300Sep 8 '26@ 
W6.09225111
W6.09225111Sep 1 '26vs 
W6.07473011
W6.07473011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Parker Messick
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.11.47elite6.35.70.7(3)
at TBR6.61.36elite5.07.00.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26 '26@ L7.29466011
L7.29466011Apr 27 '26vs L5.29593211
L5.29593211Sep 7 '25@ W6.08648011
W6.08648011Freddy Peralta
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.17.06poor4.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 12 '25@ L5.19544344
L5.19544344home starts5.41.11elite5.72.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19 '26vs W5.29764211
W5.29764211Sep 13 '26vs W5.08640300
W5.08640300Sep 1 '26vs W6.07473011
W6.07473011Trends · CLE
- CLE are 2-5 vs TBR this season (7 games).
- CLE are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE have won 4 straight.
- CLE are 3-2 in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 3-2 in Parker Messick's last 5 away starts.
- CLE average 3.2 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 2.8 runs/game in Parker Messick's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Parker Messick's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Parker Messick's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 5-2 vs CLE this season (7 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 5-0 in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-1 in Freddy Peralta's last 4 home starts.
- TBR average 6.2 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 6.0 runs/game in Freddy Peralta's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-1 to the over in Freddy Peralta's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 9
- CLE — Parker Messick: avg 3.2 IP/gs over his last 3
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: Whiff% 28.5 (last 3 starts) runs well above what K% 20.6 shows
- CLE bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g)
- CLE — Parker Messick: 16 days since last start (2026-09-27) news ↗
- CLE — Parker Messick: last start: 64 pitches over 3.0 IP news ↗
- CLE — Parker Messick: low-K outing 2026-09-27 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0 over his last 3)
- CLE — Parker Messick: recent opponents high-K: CHW 35%, BOS 26%
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: 18 days since last start (2026-09-25) news ↗
- TBR — Freddy Peralta: recent opponents high-K: HOU 31%, BOS 27%
Freddy Peralta Outs o13.5 (-124)
Peralta has worked 15, 17 and 16 outs in his last three starts behind a 1.15 ERA and 3.01 xERA, consistently reaching into the 5th and 6th inning on 86-97 pitch counts. His own bullpen carries only Normal 2-day stress (3.0 IP), so Tampa Bay has no bullpen-driven reason to shorten him. A 13.5-out line asks for barely 4.1 innings from a pitcher averaging well over 5 IP/gs across that stretch, and the near-even price doesn't reflect how routinely he's cleared that bar. The 18 days since his last start is the one real risk to a quick early hook, but a pitcher this sharp coming off that much rest has typically been handled normally rather than on a tight count in recent form.
Parker Messick Outs o14.5 (-126)
Messick has gone 18, 17 and 23 outs across his last three meetings with Tampa Bay (1.47 ERA, 6.1 IP/gs, two of those three starts from this season), a much deeper mark than his 3.2 IP/gs average over his last three starts overall, which was dragged down by an uncharacteristic 3.0 IP outing against Kansas City. Cleveland's bullpen already carries Elevated 2-day stress at 5.0 innings, giving the club real incentive to stretch him if he's working efficiently. His 14.9% walk rate over his last three starts and 16 days of rest are genuine risks to an early hook, but his specific history against this Tampa Bay lineup is a pattern of length the market isn't pricing into an outs line this close to his overall, matchup-blind average.
Legend · badges & abbreviations
Badges
R / LThe pitcher throws right- or left-handed.OOpener. A short reliever starts; the stats shown are the BULK arm’s, the pitcher expected to carry most of the game. Hover the badge for the opener’s name.BPBullpen game. No conventional starter — expect a parade of relievers. Starter props and first-5 reads do not really apply.2uA two-unit pick: the model rated the mispricing strong enough to stake double. Everything else is one unit.✓This game carries an AI pick. Open the card’s AI Analysis section.NEUTRAL SITEPlayed at neither club’s home park, so the park factor is suppressed — it would describe the wrong venue.
Starting pitcher · last 3 starts
xERAExpected ERA from contact quality and strikeouts — what he deserved, with luck and defence stripped out.ERAActual earned runs allowed per nine, over the SAME three starts.K%Share of batters faced struck out.Whiff%Swings missed. A process stat: it moves before K% does.BB%Share of batters faced walked.HH%Hard-hit rate allowed (95+ mph off the bat).Barrel%Share of batted balls hit at the ideal speed-and-angle combination.IP/gsInnings per game started — how deep he normally goes.H/gsHits allowed per start.PC/gsPitches thrown per start.
Offense
wRC+Runs created per plate appearance, park- and league-adjusted. 100 is league average; 130 is 30% better.L6 / L12The last 6 and last 12 games. L6 is the primary read; L12 is the same lineup over a longer window, for context.vs RHP / vs LHPSplit against the hand today’s opposing starter throws.all handsNot split — shown on a bullpen game, where no one starter’s hand governs enough of the game to split on.
Bullpen
2d stressRelief innings thrown over the past two calendar days, per game played: Fresh, Normal, Elevated or Stressed. A stressed pen buys the starter innings; a fresh one takes them away.
Odds
MLMoneyline — who wins, no handicap.SpreadRun line. Baseball’s is almost always ±1.5.O/UOver/under on a total.F5First five innings only — largely a bet on the two starters, with little bullpen exposure.Team TotalRuns by ONE club, rather than both added together.no-vigThe market’s own probability with the book’s margin divided out — what the price implies before the house edge.
Recent-outing table
Opp / ResOpponent, and the result of that start.IP / PCInnings pitched and pitches thrown in that outing.K / H / BB / ER / RStrikeouts, hits, walks, earned runs and total runs.
Weather and park
APFAdjusted park factor. 100 is neutral; above favours hitters, below favours pitchers. Suppressed at a neutral site.Out / In / CrossWind relative to the field: blowing out to the outfield, in toward the plate, or across it.Dome / Roof ClosedPlayed indoors — no wind and no rain.RetractableA roof that MAY be open. The readings are the outdoor forecast and apply only if it is.