MLB Game Overviews

AI Picks · 4 Bets · Aug 20

George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+113)

Kirby is running a 10.0 K% over his last 3 and has recorded just 3, 2, and 2 strikeouts in those starts, and he fanned only 3 in 6 innings the one time he faced this club. MIL makes plenty of contact at a 21.8 K% vs RHP over its last 6 with a 53.1 HH%, so there is no whiff spike coming. A line of 4.5 nearly doubles his recent per-start total, and getting plus money on the under is a clear mispricing.

Found at 4:09 AM ET

MIL ML (-121)

Milwaukee's bullpen has been elite over its last 12 at a 2.41 xERA while Seattle's has cratered to a 9.24 ERA, a gap that decides late innings. Gasser has held up at home with a 3.55 ERA over his last 3 there and MIL has won its last 5 home starts behind him, while SEA's road bats managed just 3.0 runs per game over their last 5 SP starts. At home with that relief edge, MIL is worth more than this near-coinflip price.

Found at 4:09 AM ET

LAA @ HOU u8.5 (-110)

Both starters own elite recent form — Rodriguez at a 2.76 xERA over his last 3 and Lambert at 2.65 xERA over his last 3 — and each faces a punchless lineup: HOU is a 68 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (75 over its last 12) and LAA a 94 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (83 over its last 12). Both bullpens back it up, HOU at 3.06 xERA and LAA at 2.58 xERA over their last 12. Two elite arms against two poor offenses with quality relief behind them does not support a 8.5, and the market has this priced as an average run environment.

Found at 4:09 AM ET

G. Rodriguez o4.5 Ks (-111)

Rodriguez carries a 30.2 K% over his last 3 and has struck out 6, 8, and 5 in those starts, clearing this number even in the two four-inning outings. HOU whiffs at a 23.5 K% vs RHP over its last 6, and he got 6 per start across two meetings with them. The line sits well below his recent output, and even a short leash does not threaten it given how many he misses per inning.

Found at 4:09 AM ET

AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice

STL @

CIN

12:40 PM · Great American Ball Park

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6

Michael McGreevy R

xERA3.81 (avg)ERA2.81 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)

More Stats

HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs98BB%7.2

CIN vs RHP · last 6

wRC+49 (poor)12+58 (poor)K%26.9 (below)HH%40.0 (above)Whiff%25.8 (below)

Brady Singer R

xERA4.81 (below)ERA4.50 (below)K%16.7 (below)

More Stats

HH%43.1 (below)Barrel%8.6 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs99BB%7.7

STL vs RHP · last 6

wRC+84 (below)12+95 (avg)K%22.1 (avg)HH%40.6 (above)Whiff%20.8 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

STL

xERA 3.39 (good)ERA 2.45 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

CIN

xERA 2.93 (elite)ERA 5.82 (poor)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSTL-110-1.5 (+135)O9.0 (-105)CIN+104+1.5 (-156)U9.0 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSTL-115-0.5 (+116)O4.5 (-110)CIN-106+0.5 (-152)U4.5 (-118)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL4.5 (-113/-110)2.5 (+120/-154)CIN4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+124/-160)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UMichael McGreevy4.5 (-108 / -109)17.5 (-102 / -123)Brady Singer4.5 (+120 / -147)17.5 (-132 / +101)

Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 15@

W6.010265203

Aug 9vs

W5.210248233

Aug 3@

W4.19154122

Jul 28vs

L1.26328277

Jul 23vs

L6.19537344

Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 15vs

L6.09348233

Aug 9@

L6.010338133

Aug 4vs

W6.010165333

Jul 29vs

L4.110037444

Jul 22@

W6.210166133

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Michael McGreevy

IPERAKHBB

vs CIN6.31.42elite3.74.31.7(3)

at CIN6.01.50elite0.05.02.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 7vs

W6.08355022

Sep 16vs

W7.09163300

Aug 30@

W6.09305211

Brady Singer

IPERAKHBB

vs STL5.12.96elite6.74.01.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 5@

L4.08964314

Sep 17@

W5.29763212

Aug 31vs

W6.010285033

home starts5.45.59poor4.36.73.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 15vs

L6.09348233

Aug 4vs

W6.010165333

Jul 29vs

L4.110037444

Trends · STL

STL are 7-7 vs CIN this season (14 games).
STL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
STL are 3-2 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
STL are 3-2 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.
STL average 7.2 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
STL average 6.4 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
STL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
STL are 4-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
STL are 1-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 2 away starts.

Trends · CIN

CIN are 7-7 vs STL this season (14 games).
CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
CIN are 2-3 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
CIN average 3.2 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
CIN average 2.0 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CIN are 2-3 to the over in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
CIN are 2-1 to the over in Brady Singer's last 3 home starts.

Weather

80°F, Wind 6 mph NNW

Flags · 4

STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
STL — Michael McGreevy: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 6 mph from the NNW — supports the over and HR props
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests

AI Analysis

McGreevy has handled Cincinnati's league-worst offense repeatedly, but St. Louis's own cold bats and Singer's strong history against them leave the near-pickem price roughly fair.

SFG @

CLE

1:10 PM · Progressive Field

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6

Landen Roupp R

xERA5.25 (poor)ERA5.74 (poor)K%19.2 (avg)

More Stats

HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%10.9 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs92BB%16.4

CLE vs RHP · last 6

wRC+58 (poor)12+89 (below)K%18.6 (above)HH%27.6 (poor)Whiff%17.4 (elite)

Gavin Williams R

xERA2.93 (elite)ERA4.02 (avg)K%33.9 (elite)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.9 (below)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs94BB%10.8

SFG vs RHP · last 6

wRC+116 (above)12+96 (avg)K%20.4 (avg)HH%39.0 (avg)Whiff%22.3 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

SFG

xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 5.10 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

CLE

xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 4.68 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSFG+170+1.5 (-138)O7.5 (-106)CLE-180-1.5 (+118)U7.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSFG+150+0.5 (-106)O3.5 (-148)CLE-188-0.5 (-122)U3.5 (+114)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/USFG3.5 (+120/+124)1.5 (+105/-135)CLE4.5 (+110/-135)2.5 (+114/-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/ULanden Roupp4.5 (+120 / -149)15.5 (-108 / -119)Gavin Williams7.5 (+124 / -142)17.5 (-176 / +132)

Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14vs

L5.29155344

Aug 8vs

L5.18532511

Aug 2@

L4.29966455

Jul 28vs

L3.28414344

Jul 22@

L6.09174022

Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14vs

L4.19157455

Aug 8@

L5.210273222

Aug 2vs

W5.289101100

Jul 28@

L7.0101123122

Jul 23vs

L7.097112000

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Gavin Williams

IPERAKHBB

vs SFG6.00.00elite6.02.03.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 19@

L6.010462300

home starts5.42.76elite8.73.31.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14vs

L4.19157455

Aug 2vs

W5.289101100

Jul 23vs

L7.097112000

Trends · SFG

SFG are 1-1 vs CLE this season (2 games).
SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
SFG are 0-5 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.
SFG average 2.4 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
SFG average 4.0 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
SFG are 3-1 to the over in Landen Roupp's last 4 starts.

Trends · CLE

CLE are 1-1 vs SFG this season (2 games).
CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 1-4 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE are 1-4 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
CLE average 2.8 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE average 2.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CLE are 2-3 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
CLE are 1-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 3 home starts.

Weather

76°F, Wind 6 mph NNW

Flags · 7

SFG bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SFG — Landen Roupp: 2026-08-02: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SFG — Landen Roupp: recent opponents low-K: SDP 15%, DET 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-08-14: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
CLE — Gavin Williams: recent opponents low-K: ARI 19%, SDP 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
WEATHER: wind blowing IN 6 mph from the NNW — suppresses the over and HR props
TREND: CLE — lost the last game 1-0 — decided by a single run; a shutout loss this close says little about the offense, don't treat it as a slump

AI Analysis

Two collapsing offenses and a wind blowing in make both the total and Cleveland's laydown price too uncertain to back despite Williams's clear edge on the mound.

TOR @

TBR

1:10 PM · Tropicana Field

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6

Shane Bieber R

xERA4.94 (below)ERA3.63 (good)K%19.7 (avg)

More Stats

HH%50.9 (poor)Barrel%12.7 (below)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs89BB%7.9

TBR vs RHP · last 6

wRC+142 (elite)12+142 (elite)K%13.4 (elite)HH%34.4 (below)Whiff%17.6 (elite)

Ian Seymour L

xERA4.50 (below)ERA3.00 (good)K%32.9 (elite)

More Stats

HH%41.7 (below)Barrel%12.5 (below)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs94BB%4.0

TOR vs LHP · last 6

wRC+90 (below)12+75 (poor)K%12.6 (elite)HH%20.7 (poor)Whiff%13.8 (elite)

Bullpens · Last 12

TOR

xERA 3.05 (good)ERA 3.40 (good)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

TBR

xERA 4.43 (avg)ERA 5.19 (below)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalTOR+150+1.5 (-146)O7.5 (-115)TBR-160-1.5 (+130)U7.5 (-104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalTOR+138+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (-104)TBR-166-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (-125)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (+104/-130)1.5 (-125/-105)TBR4.5 (+114/-140)2.5 (+100/-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UShane Bieber3.5 (-110 / +101)16.5 (-118 / -110)Ian Seymour5.5 (+110 / -130)16.5 (-160 / +123)

Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14vs

W6.08454111

Aug 9@

L5.29746355

Aug 3@

W5.28769211

Jul 28@

L0.24201644

Jul 23vs

W7.08633011

Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 15vs

L6.09396133

Aug 9@

W6.09875211

Aug 3@

W6.09097022

Jul 29vs

W4.2*7142100

Jul 23@

L6.0*8775122

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Shane Bieber

IPERAKHBB

vs TBR6.02.25elite3.04.01.0(2)

at TBR—

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 23vs

W7.08633011

Sep 26vs

W5.09035222

Ian Seymour

IPERAKHBB

vs TOR—

home starts4.57.91poor6.06.02.0(2)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 15vs

L6.09396133

Jul 12vs

L3.17836356

Trends · TOR

TOR are 3-9 vs TBR this season (12 games).
TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
TOR are 3-2 in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
TOR are 2-3 in Shane Bieber's last 5 away starts.
TOR average 4.2 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
TOR average 4.0 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
TOR are 2-3 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
TOR are 2-1 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 3 away starts.

Trends · TBR

TBR are 9-3 vs TOR this season (12 games).
TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
TBR are 2-3 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
TBR are 2-3 in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.
TBR average 5.6 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
TBR average 3.4 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

TBR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
TBR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
TBR are 1-4 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
TBR are 0-3 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 3 home starts.

Flags · 5

TBR bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TOR — Shane Bieber: 2026-08-09: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-29, 2026-07-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
TBR — Ian Seymour: recent opponents high-K: SEA 31%, BAL 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests

AI Analysis

Tampa Bay's elite lineup should punish a hard-contact Bieber, but his two low-scoring starts against them undercut the offense read and the prices already lean their way.

ATH @

KCR

2:10 PM · Kauffman Stadium

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6

Gage Jump L

xERA4.43 (avg)ERA6.60 (poor)K%23.9 (good)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs96BB%16.9

KCR vs LHP · last 6

wRC+83 (below)12+88 (below)K%26.4 (below)HH%32.8 (below)Whiff%20.9 (above)

Randy Dobnak R

xERA4.03 (avg)ERA2.87 (elite)K%15.7 (below)

More Stats

HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%3.8 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs92BB%8.6

ATH vs RHP · last 6

wRC+127 (above)12+110 (avg)K%12.7 (elite)HH%31.7 (below)Whiff%21.2 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

ATH

xERA 4.33 (avg)ERA 5.74 (poor)2d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)

KCR

xERA 4.85 (below)ERA 4.09 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalATH+126+1.5 (-181)O8.5 (-120)KCR-134-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (+101)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalATH+105+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-122)KCR-120-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-106)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH3.5 (-142/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)KCR4.5 (+102/-120)2.5 (+100/-130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UGage Jump4.5 (-148 / +121)16.5 (-115 / -115)Randy Dobnak3.5 (-107 / -118)16.5 (-121 / -110)

Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14vs

W5.110113433

Aug 8@

W6.0100116222

Aug 2vs

L3.28854666

Jul 28vs

W6.09073400

Jul 22@

L4.28358466

Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 15@

L5.29364200

Aug 9vs

L5.094410144

Aug 4vs

W5.09013311

Jul 29@

W7.010144100

Jul 23@

L5.07634100

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Randy Dobnak

IPERAKHBB

vs ATH—

home starts4.73.83avg2.75.72.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 9vs

L5.094410144

Aug 4vs

W5.09013311

Jul 18vs

W4.19634411

Trends · ATH

ATH are 2-4 vs KCR this season (6 games).
ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
ATH are 3-2 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 away starts.
ATH average 4.8 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
ATH average 3.6 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
ATH are 3-2 to the over in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
ATH are 1-2 to the over in Gage Jump's last 3 away starts.

Trends · KCR

KCR are 4-2 vs ATH this season (6 games).
KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
KCR have won 4 straight.
KCR are 2-3 in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
KCR are 2-1 in Randy Dobnak's last 3 home starts.
KCR average 3.4 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
KCR average 5.3 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 3 home starts.

Over / Under

KCR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
KCR are 2-3 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
KCR are 1-2 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 3 home starts.

Weather

81°F, Wind 4 mph NNW

Flags · 7

ATH bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
KCR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
ATH — Gage Jump: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-08-02: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATH — Gage Jump: high-K outing 2026-08-08 (11 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
ATH — Gage Jump: low-K outing 2026-08-14 (1 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
KCR — Randy Dobnak: 2026-08-09: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA

AI Analysis

Oakland's hot, contact-heavy bats meet a low-strikeout Dobnak while Kansas City's cold lineup faces a wild Gage Jump, and every posted number already reflects that split with no line offering a real edge.

ATL @

CHW

2:10 PM · Rate Field

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6

Grant Holmes R

xERA4.16 (avg)ERA3.45 (good)K%15.6 (below)

More Stats

HH%43.8 (below)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs71BB%9.4

CHW vs RHP · last 6

wRC+137 (elite)12+126 (above)K%23.2 (avg)HH%41.4 (above)Whiff%28.7 (poor)

Anthony Kay L

xERA3.72 (good)ERA2.55 (elite)K%14.9 (below)

More Stats

HH%42.4 (below)Barrel%6.8 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs86BB%4.0

ATL vs LHP · last 6

wRC+89 (below)12+131 (elite)K%19.4 (above)HH%38.5 (avg)Whiff%20.0 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

ATL

xERA 4.26 (avg)ERA 4.35 (avg)2d stress Fresh (1.3 IP/1g)

CHW

xERA 3.54 (good)ERA 3.30 (good)2d stress Stressed (7.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalATL-104-1.5 (+152)O8.5 (-110)CHW-101+1.5 (-178)U8.5 (-105)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalATL-104+0.5 (-152)O4.5 (-130)CHW-120-0.5 (+116)U4.5 (+100)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL4.5 (+110/-135)2.5 (+114/-145)CHW4.5 (+114/+110)2.5 (+114/-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UGrant Holmes4.5 (+114 / +133)14.5 (-132 / -101)Anthony Kay4.5 (+130 / -161)15.5 (+101 / -130)

Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 15vs

L3.26536366

Aug 9@

W6.07723200

Aug 4vs

W6.07255100

Jul 30vs

W4.26945233

Jul 24@

W5.09156233

Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 15@

W5.18646133

Aug 8vs

W6.08346122

Aug 2@

W6.18937100

Jul 28vs

L5.19775133

Jul 22@

W5.07945222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Grant Holmes

IPERAKHBB

vs CHW3.28.44poor2.04.02.0(1)

at CHW3.28.44poor2.04.02.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 9@

L3.26724233

Anthony Kay

IPERAKHBB

vs ATL—

home starts5.43.89avg5.05.01.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 8vs

W6.08346122

Jul 28vs

L5.19775133

Jul 9vs

L5.19244222

Trends · ATL

ATL are 0-3 vs CHW this season (3 games).
ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
ATL are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
ATL are 4-1 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
ATL are 3-2 in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.
ATL average 4.2 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
ATL average 3.4 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

ATL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
ATL are 2-3 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
ATL are 1-2 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 3 away starts.

Trends · CHW

CHW are 3-0 vs ATL this season (3 games).
CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
CHW are 4-1 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
CHW average 5.0 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
CHW average 3.8 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

CHW are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
CHW are 2-3 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
CHW are 1-2 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 3 home starts.

Weather

73°F, Wind 9 mph NNE

Flags · 6

ATL bullpen fresh (1.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
CHW bullpen stressed (7.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
ATL — Grant Holmes: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
ATL — Grant Holmes: 2026-08-15: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATL — Grant Holmes: recent opponents high-K: MIA 26%, NYY 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
WEATHER: wind across the field 9 mph from the NNE — little effect on carry either way

AI Analysis

Chicago's elite, established bats against a hittable Holmes is a live scoring angle, but the team total is priced up and Atlanta's own lineup could regress off its recent slump, muddying any side.

SEA @

MIL✓

2:10 PM · American Family Field

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6

George Kirby R

xERA3.04 (good)ERA3.24 (good)K%10.0 (poor)

More Stats

HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%5.3 (good)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs97BB%8.6

MIL vs RHP · last 6

wRC+110 (avg)12+100 (avg)K%21.8 (avg)HH%53.1 (elite)Whiff%24.3 (avg)

Robert Gasser L

xERA5.29 (poor)ERA3.94 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)

More Stats

HH%46.9 (poor)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs91BB%6.9

SEA vs LHP · last 6

wRC+90 (below)12+75 (poor)K%31.5 (poor)HH%44.2 (above)Whiff%25.3 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

SEA

xERA 4.62 (below)ERA 9.24 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)

MIL

xERA 2.41 (elite)ERA 2.11 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalSEA+114+1.5 (-190)O8.0 (-110)MIL-121-1.5 (+169)U8.0 (-104)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalSEA-105+0.5 (-156)O4.5 (-102)MIL-116-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-128)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-125/+110)1.5 (-154/+120)MIL3.5 (-146/+120)1.5 (-166/+130)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UGeorge Kirby4.5 (-132 / +113)17.5 (+101 / -125)Robert Gasser5.5 (+128 / +125)17.5 (-112 / -114)

George Kirby · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14@

L4.29928355

Aug 8vs

L5.09924211

Aug 2vs

W7.09435100

Jul 27@

L4.06637077

Jul 20vs

W6.08063100

Robert Gasser · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14@

L6.110278133

Aug 8vs

W4.29437233

Aug 1@

W5.07664211

Jul 25vs

W6.07745022

Jul 19vs

W5.08653011

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

George Kirby

IPERAKHBB

vs MIL6.06.00poor3.05.01.0(1)

at MIL—

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 21vs

L6.08335144

Robert Gasser

IPERAKHBB

vs SEA—

home starts5.13.55good4.05.00.7(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 8vs

W4.29437233

Jul 25vs

W6.07745022

Jul 19vs

W5.08653011

Trends · SEA

SEA are 1-1 vs MIL this season (2 games).
SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
SEA are 2-3 in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
SEA are 1-4 in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.
SEA average 5.4 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
SEA average 3.0 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
SEA are 4-1 to the over in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
SEA are 2-1 to the over in George Kirby's last 3 away starts.

Trends · MIL

MIL are 1-1 vs SEA this season (2 games).
MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
MIL are 4-1 in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
MIL are 5-0 in Robert Gasser's last 5 home starts.
MIL average 3.8 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
MIL average 4.4 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
MIL are 2-3 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
MIL are 2-1 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 3 home starts.

Flags · 3

MIL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
SEA — George Kirby: 2026-08-14: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
MIL — Robert Gasser: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today

George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+113)

MIL ML (-121)

NYY @

BAL

6:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6

Gerrit Cole R

xERA3.37 (good)ERA1.93 (elite)K%25.7 (good)

More Stats

HH%44.0 (below)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs89BB%6.8

BAL vs RHP · last 6

wRC+109 (avg)12+114 (avg)K%21.7 (avg)HH%44.8 (above)Whiff%24.4 (avg)

Kyle Bradish R

xERA4.22 (avg)ERA3.00 (good)K%16.4 (below)

More Stats

HH%34.1 (good)Barrel%2.3 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs81BB%9.8

NYY vs RHP · last 6

wRC+56 (poor)12+68 (poor)K%29.6 (poor)HH%46.9 (elite)Whiff%25.5 (below)

Bullpens · Last 12

NYY

xERA 3.27 (good)ERA 1.80 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

BAL

xERA 3.28 (good)ERA 4.71 (below)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalNYY-124-1.5 (+137)O8.0 (-112)BAL+110+1.5 (-164)U7.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalNYY-124-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (-104)BAL+100+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-125)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY4.5 (+112/-135)2.5 (+124/-160)BAL3.5 (-120/-104)1.5 (-160/+124)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole6.5 (-102 / -122)17.5 (-156 / +145)Kyle Bradish5.5 (-130 / +106)16.5 (-111 / -118)

Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14@

L6.08755212

Aug 8vs

W7.08296022

Aug 2@

W5.29954311

Jul 28@

W6.09974200

Jul 22vs

L7.093114033

Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 15@

W6.09337422

Aug 8@

L6.09845012

Aug 2vs

L3.05332222

Jul 27@

W4.293410155

Jul 22@

W6.08944111

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Kyle Bradish

IPERAKHBB

vs NYY4.74.50below6.34.02.3(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

May 13vs

W6.010071300

May 2@

L4.08946455

Sep 28@

L4.06985022

home starts4.44.09avg3.31.73.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 2vs

L3.05332222

Jul 11vs

W6.29652211

Jun 28vs

L4.08521534

Trends · NYY

NYY are 7-2 vs BAL this season (9 games).
NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
NYY average 2.8 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
NYY average 1.4 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
NYY are 1-4 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
NYY are 0-3 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 3 away starts.

Trends · BAL

BAL are 2-7 vs NYY this season (9 games).
BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
BAL average 3.6 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
BAL average 5.2 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
BAL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 home games.
BAL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
BAL are 0-2 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 2 home starts.

Weather

75°F, Wind 14 mph WNW

Flags · 5

NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
BAL — Kyle Bradish: recent opponents low-K: PHI 17%, TBR 13% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
WEATHER: rain chance 45% — monitor for delays
WEATHER: wind across the field 14 mph from the WNW — little effect on carry either way
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests

WSN @

TEX

8:05 PM · Globe Life Field

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6

Andrew Alvarez L

xERA3.90 (avg)ERA2.60 (elite)K%16.9 (below)

More Stats

HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs76BB%7.7

TEX vs LHP · last 6

wRC+95 (avg)12+109 (avg)K%19.2 (above)HH%40.3 (above)Whiff%16.7 (elite)

Jacob deGrom R

xERA4.43 (avg)ERA6.97 (poor)K%28.8 (elite)

More Stats

HH%43.3 (below)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs3.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs77BB%13.5

WSN vs RHP · last 6

wRC+62 (poor)12+89 (below)K%24.2 (below)HH%29.7 (poor)Whiff%20.1 (above)

Bullpens · Last 12

WSN

xERA 4.42 (avg)ERA 3.57 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)

TEX

xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 3.97 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalWSN+146+1.5 (-152)O7.5 (-117)TEX-168-1.5 (+140)U7.5 (+100)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalWSN+150+0.5 (-104)O3.5 (-148)TEX-175-0.5 (-125)U3.5 (+114)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (+102/-130)1.5 (-110/-120)TEX4.5 (+110/-138)2.5 (+114/-145)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Alvarez4.5 (+114 / -124)14.5 (-155 / +117)Jacob deGrom6.5 (+111 / +132)15.5 (-117 / -113)

Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14@

L5.27342122

Aug 8vs

W5.17323111

Aug 3@

L6.18153322

Jul 27vs

L4.1*8034311

Jul 20@

W4.17426333

Jacob deGrom · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 13@

L2.05336122

Aug 8vs

W5.08893111

Aug 1@

L3.19137555

Jul 26vs

L5.09047011

Jul 20vs

L4.29767255

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

Jacob deGrom

IPERAKHBB

vs WSN7.00.00elite8.02.00.0(1)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jun 7@

W7.08182000

home starts4.74.44avg6.35.71.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 8vs

W5.08893111

Jul 26vs

L5.09047011

Jul 20vs

L4.29767255

Trends · WSN

WSN are 1-1 vs TEX this season (2 games).
WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
WSN are 1-4 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.
WSN average 4.4 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
WSN average 3.0 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
WSN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
WSN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
WSN are 1-2 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 away starts.

Trends · TEX

TEX are 1-1 vs WSN this season (2 games).
TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
TEX are 1-4 in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
TEX are 3-2 in Jacob deGrom's last 5 home starts.
TEX average 3.2 runs/game in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
TEX average 5.8 runs/game in Jacob deGrom's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
TEX are 3-2 to the over in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
TEX are 2-1 to the over in Jacob deGrom's last 3 home starts.

Flags · 9

TEX — Jacob deGrom: avg 3.4 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
WSN bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
TEX bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
WSN — Andrew Alvarez: last start: 73 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent opponents high-K: CIN 39%, NYM 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
TEX — Jacob deGrom: last start: 53 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
TEX — Jacob deGrom: high-K outing 2026-08-08 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
TREND: TEX — was shut out 6-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression

AI Analysis

deGrom's tiny recent workload and shutout-loss bounce-back for Texas point opposite directions against a weak Washington lineup, leaving no clean number to attack.

LAA @

HOU✓

8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Retractable)

Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6

G. Rodriguez R

xERA2.76 (elite)ERA4.80 (below)K%30.2 (elite)

More Stats

HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%8.3 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs90BB%11.1

HOU vs RHP · last 6

wRC+68 (poor)12+75 (poor)K%23.5 (avg)HH%33.9 (below)Whiff%23.9 (avg)

Peter Lambert R

xERA2.65 (elite)ERA3.45 (good)K%26.2 (good)

More Stats

HH%25.0 (elite)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs92BB%10.8

LAA vs RHP · last 6

wRC+94 (below)12+83 (below)K%23.8 (avg)HH%37.3 (avg)Whiff%24.6 (avg)

Bullpens · Last 12

LAA

xERA 2.58 (elite)ERA 3.97 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)

HOU

xERA 3.06 (good)ERA 2.86 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)

Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics

Full Game

MLSpreadTotalLAA+158+1.5 (-135)O8.5 (-105)HOU-188-1.5 (+118)U8.5 (-110)

First 5 Innings

MLSpreadTotalLAA+154+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-120)HOU-182-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-108)

Team Totals

Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (-110/-113)1.5 (-120/-110)HOU4.5 (-111/-110)2.5 (-115/-115)

Pitcher Props

K O/UOuts O/UG. Rodriguez4.5 (-111 / +102)15.5 (-102 / -131)Peter Lambert5.5 (+100 / -103)17.5 (-119 / +100)

G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14vs

L4.08953233

Aug 9@

L4.08384434

Aug 4@

L7.09863122

Jul 29vs

L5.09865222

Jul 24@

L4.08036255

Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14vs

W5.09664222

Aug 8@

L5.09735323

Aug 2vs

W5.28383222

Jul 28@

W5.09067122

Jul 22vs

W6.08936222

SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)

G. Rodriguez

IPERAKHBB

vs HOU5.03.56good6.05.52.0(2)

at HOU—

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 29vs

L5.09865222

Jun 8vs

L5.19266223

Peter Lambert

IPERAKHBB

vs LAA5.53.24good6.06.00.5(2)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Jul 28@

W5.09067122

Jun 10@

L6.19165022

home starts5.43.33good5.74.32.0(3)

DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR

Aug 14vs

W5.09664222

Aug 2vs

W5.28383222

Jul 22vs

W6.08936222

Trends · LAA

LAA are 5-7 vs HOU this season (12 games).
LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
LAA are 0-5 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
LAA are 2-3 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 away starts.
LAA average 4.0 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
LAA average 4.2 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 away starts.

Over / Under

LAA are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
LAA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
LAA are 3-2 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
LAA are 1-2 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 3 away starts.

Trends · HOU

HOU are 7-5 vs LAA this season (12 games).
HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
HOU are 4-1 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
HOU are 4-1 in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
HOU average 5.4 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
HOU average 5.2 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.

Over / Under

HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
HOU are 1-4 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
HOU are 1-2 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 3 home starts.

Weather · Retractable

Flags · 4

LAA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
HOU bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 9 mph from the SSE (retractable roof — conditions apply only if open) — supports the over and HR props
TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests

LAA @ HOU u8.5 (-110)

G. Rodriguez o4.5 Ks (-111)