AI Picks · 9 Bets · Aug 18
CLE Team Total o4.5 (-108)
Cleveland is at 130 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 121 over its last 12, an established elite mark against left-handers. Whisenhunt carries a 5.05 xERA and 8.03 ERA over his last 3 with a 15.9% walk rate and averages just 4.1 IP/gs, so Cleveland reaches a 4.33-xERA bullpen early. A team total of 4.5 underprices a top-tier lefty-mashing lineup against a wild, hittable starter.
Found at 4:06 AM ET
C. Whisenhunt u14.5 Outs (+146)
Whisenhunt has gone 3.1, 3.1, and 5.2 innings over his last 3 (10, 10, and 17 outs) for a 4.1 IP/gs average, and he walks 15.9% of hitters. Facing a Cleveland lineup at 130 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6, he is a strong candidate to be knocked out early, making plus money on the under to 14.5 outs clear value.
Found at 4:06 AM ET
TBR F5 Team Total o2.5 (+120)
Tampa Bay is at 158 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 141 over its last 12, an elite bat-on-ball lineup with just an 11.6% strikeout rate. Soriano's 1.15 ERA over his last 3 is a mirage against his 4.95 xERA, 47.6% hard-hit rate, and 12.9% walk rate, so heavy contact is coming early. Getting plus money on the Rays scoring 3 in the first five innings against a regression-bound starter is the play the full-game price does not offer.
Found at 4:06 AM ET
Zack Wheeler o7.5 Ks (+109)
Wheeler has struck out Miami 8, 9 and 6 times across his last 3 meetings with them — a 7.7 K/start pattern that holds regardless of results. His 24.1 K% over his last 3 remains sharp (he fanned 3 in a 2-inning outing on rate alone), and the 17.5-out line gives him the six innings this number needs against a lineup he consistently misses bats against. Plus money on a bat-missing arm versus a familiar opponent is the mispricing.
Found at 10:25 AM ET
SDP Team Total o4.5 (+112)
San Diego is at 153 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 121 over its last 12, elite and confirmed by both windows. Thornton is a left-hander with a 4.70 xERA and a 10.4% strikeout rate over his last 3, so he cannot miss bats against a lineup built to punish lefties. Plus money on the Padres clearing 4.5 misprices a severe pitching-hitting mismatch.
Found at 4:06 AM ET
Tyler Mahle o4.5 Ks (-122)
Mahle has struck out 9, 9, and 7 over his last 3 starts with a 36.2% strikeout rate, averaging 8.3 punchouts per outing. His outs line sits at 16.5 (5.5 innings), giving him the length, and Minnesota's 21.8% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6 offers no protection. A line of 4.5 sits well below his current form.
Found at 4:06 AM ET
KCR Team Total u4.5 (+110)
Kansas City is at 52 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 70 over its last 12 — a genuinely dead offense from both windows. Perkins carries a 4.67 xERA over his last 3 despite an ugly ERA, meaning he has pitched better than his run totals show, and a 24.4% strikeout rate for the Royals against right-handers makes them easy outs. Plus money on this lineup staying under 4.5 is value.
Found at 4:06 AM ET
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-115)
Fedde has faced the Cubs three times and been hammered each outing — 7 ER, 3 ER, and 4 ER while lasting just 2.4 IP/gs for a 17.26 ERA against them. He walks 13.6% and is coming off 18 days with recent bullpen work, so his command is shaky, and Chicago sits at 111 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 108 over its last 12. A 4.5 team total is too low for a lineup that has repeatedly torched this exact arm.
Found at 4:06 AM ET
COL Team Total u4.5 (+100)
Colorado is at 35 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 48 over their last 12 — a genuinely broken profile against lefties, not a slump. Lauer carries a 3.37 xERA over his last 3 and has owned this lineup: 2.50 ERA across his last 3 starts vs Colorado including a 1.50 mark in this park. With the Dodgers' bullpen at a 2.66 xERA over its last 12 behind him, four-plus runs is a stretch even at altitude, and the plus-money price is charging for Coors rather than the matchup.
Found at 10:25 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
NYY @ 
BAL6:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsHitter Friendly
NYY @ BALMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Carlos Rodon L
xERA3.85 (avg)ERA3.52 (good)K%27.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs94BB%10.8
BAL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+145 (elite)12+141 (elite)K%27.7 (below)HH%48.1 (elite)Whiff%25.8 (below)
Shane Baz R
xERA3.08 (good)ERA4.15 (avg)K%20.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%46.3 (poor)Barrel%3.7 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs86BB%4.2
NYY vs RHP · last 6
wRC+74 (poor)12+82 (below)K%26.3 (below)HH%48.7 (elite)Whiff%22.3 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.56 (good)ERA 3.73 (good)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 3.24 (good)ERA 4.68 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-106-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (-112)BAL+102+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-112+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-120)BAL-112-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY4.5 (+105/-130)2.5 (+114/-145)BAL3.5 (-145/+116)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCarlos Rodon4.5 (-148 / +122)12.5 (+136 / -182)Shane Baz5.5 (-148 / +122)17.5 (-106 / -120)
Carlos Rodon · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 28@ 
L5.09661402
L5.09661402Jun 23@ 
W5.18756233
W5.18756233Jun 17vs 
W5.09977133
W5.09977133Jun 10@ 
W6.09674333
W6.09674333Jun 4vs W6.09672311
W6.09672311Shane Baz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ 
L3.06529155
L3.06529155Aug 7@ 
L8.09393122
L8.09393122Aug 1vs 
L6.19946111
L6.19946111Jul 26vs 
L4.19026212
L4.19026212Jul 20@ L6.07766014
L6.07766014SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Carlos Rodon
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL6.52.08elite7.53.01.0(2)
at BAL6.52.08elite7.53.01.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 20@ W7.09684111
W7.09684111Apr 29@ W6.09172122
W6.09172122Shane Baz
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY3.812.74poor3.35.33.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 4@ L5.29645556
L5.29645556Aug 19vs L3.06537266
L3.06537266Apr 19vs W3.18334455
W3.18334455home starts4.82.50elite5.06.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 1vs L6.19946111
L6.19946111Jul 26vs L4.19026212
L4.19026212Jul 12vs 
W4.210498022
W4.210498022Trends · NYY
- NYY are 5-2 vs BAL this season (7 games).
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 4-1 in Carlos Rodon's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 3-2 in Carlos Rodon's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 5.6 runs/game in Carlos Rodon's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 5.4 runs/game in Carlos Rodon's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 2-5 vs NYY this season (7 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 0-5 in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-4 in Shane Baz's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 2.6 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 2.8 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 0-3 to the over in Shane Baz's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
87°F, Clear, Wind 4 mph NW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- NYY — Carlos Rodon: 51 days since last start (2026-06-28) — may not be fully stretched out news ↗
- BAL — Shane Baz: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- BAL — Shane Baz: 2026-08-12: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- BAL — Shane Baz: high-K outing 2026-08-07 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- BAL — Shane Baz: low-K outing 2026-08-12 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
The head-to-head signals cut both ways — the Yankees have hammered Baz three straight while Rodon has owned Baltimore — and with New York's offense cold and Rodon rusty after 51 days off, there is no confident side.
STL @ 
CIN6:40 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
STL @ CINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Kyle Leahy R
xERA3.84 (avg)ERA2.25 (elite)K%25.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%6.2 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs87BB%1.5
CIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+85 (below)12+82 (below)K%23.6 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)Whiff%24.0 (avg)
Andrew Abbott L
xERA4.08 (avg)ERA6.19 (poor)K%11.0 (poor)
More Stats
HH%32.7 (good)Barrel%7.3 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%13.7
STL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+170 (elite)12+140 (elite)K%17.5 (above)HH%38.0 (avg)Whiff%18.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.68 (good)ERA 2.47 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 2.99 (elite)ERA 6.07 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-112-1.5 (+140)O9.0 (+101)CIN+106+1.5 (-165)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-115-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-114)CIN+102+0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-114)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL4.5 (+102/-120)2.5 (+120/-154)CIN4.5 (+120/+108)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Leahy5.5 (+119 / -142)15.5 (+122 / +122)Andrew Abbott4.5 (-106 / -113)16.5 (-125 / +100)
Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W5.08166011
W5.08166011Aug 7vs 
W5.08288022
W5.08288022Jul 31@ 
L6.09836111
L6.09836111Jul 26vs L6.010296122
L6.010296122Jul 20@ 
L6.09543011
L6.09543011Andrew Abbott · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13@ W4.19337355
W4.19337355Aug 6vs 
W6.28847233
W6.28847233Aug 1vs 
L5.09813533
L5.09813533Jul 26@ W6.010043422
W6.010043422Jul 20@ 
L6.010064201
L6.010064201SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.06.00poor6.06.01.7(3)
at CIN5.09.00poor8.07.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs L6.010296122
L6.010296122Jun 5vs W4.07915233
W4.07915233May 23@ L5.08787255
L5.08787255Andrew Abbott
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.14.14avg6.04.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26@ W6.010043422
W6.010043422Sep 16@ L4.29678033
L4.29678033Aug 30vs L5.09673422
L5.09673422home starts5.15.92poor2.74.73.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs W6.28847233
W6.28847233Aug 1vs L5.09813533
L5.09813533Jul 12vs 
L4.07934344
L4.07934344Trends · STL
- STL are 6-6 vs CIN this season (12 games).
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-3 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-4 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 3.2 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 4.0 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 0-3 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 6-6 vs STL this season (12 games).
- CIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Andrew Abbott's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 4.2 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 3.0 runs/game in Andrew Abbott's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 3-2 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 0-3 to the over in Andrew Abbott's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph NW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CIN bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
St. Louis is scorching versus lefties, but Abbott has actually held them to two or three earned in each of his last 3 meetings, and that contradiction removes the edge from their team total.
SFG @ CLE✓6:40 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
SFG @ CLE✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
C. Whisenhunt L
xERA5.05 (below)ERA8.03 (poor)K%14.3 (below)
More Stats
HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs80BB%15.9
CLE vs LHP · last 6
wRC+130 (elite)12+121 (above)K%14.9 (elite)HH%38.3 (avg)Whiff%23.1 (avg)
Foster Griffin L
xERA5.68 (poor)ERA7.53 (poor)K%17.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%48.0 (poor)Barrel%8.0 (good)IP/gs4.8 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs83BB%7.5
SFG vs LHP · last 6
wRC+62 (poor)12+47 (poor)K%13.6 (elite)HH%47.2 (elite)Whiff%24.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 4.33 (avg)ERA 5.40 (poor)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 4.26 (avg)ERA 4.78 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+170+1.5 (-135)O8.0 (-110)CLE-182-1.5 (+120)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+154+0.5 (+100)O4.5 (-110)CLE-180-0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USFG3.5 (+104/-130)1.5 (-125/-105)CLE4.5 (-108/-118)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UC. Whisenhunt3.5 (-115 / -106)14.5 (-192 / +146)Foster Griffin5.5 (-106 / -108)17.5 (-144 / +112)
C. Whisenhunt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11vs 
W5.29624311
W5.29624311Aug 5@ L3.17045344
L3.17045344Jul 31@ 
L3.17437466
L3.17437466Jul 26vs L5.07875244
L5.07875244Jul 9vs W5.28743422
W5.28743422Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ W5.08334113
W5.08334113Aug 6vs 
L4.08867255
L4.08867255Jul 31@ L5.17839266
L5.17839266Jul 25vs 
W6.210826133
W6.210826133Jul 19@ W7.09728111
W7.09728111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Foster Griffin
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.01.50elite5.06.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 10@ L6.010056011
L6.010056011home starts5.74.71below5.76.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs L4.08867255
L4.08867255Jul 25vs W6.210826133
W6.210826133Jul 8vs W7.09995011
W7.09995011Trends · SFG
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 2-3 in C. Whisenhunt's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-2 in C. Whisenhunt's last 3 away starts.
- SFG average 3.0 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 2.3 runs/game in C. Whisenhunt's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 2-3 to the over in C. Whisenhunt's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 0-2 to the over in C. Whisenhunt's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-1 in Foster Griffin's last 2 starts.
- CLE are 0-1 in Foster Griffin's last 1 home starts.
- CLE average 6.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 2 starts.
- CLE average 6.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph WNW
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TREND: CLE — was shut out 5-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression
CLE Team Total o4.5 (-108)
Cleveland is at 130 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 121 over its last 12, an established elite mark against left-handers. Whisenhunt carries a 5.05 xERA and 8.03 ERA over his last 3 with a 15.9% walk rate and averages just 4.1 IP/gs, so Cleveland reaches a 4.33-xERA bullpen early. A team total of 4.5 underprices a top-tier lefty-mashing lineup against a wild, hittable starter.
C. Whisenhunt u14.5 Outs (+146)
Whisenhunt has gone 3.1, 3.1, and 5.2 innings over his last 3 (10, 10, and 17 outs) for a 4.1 IP/gs average, and he walks 15.9% of hitters. Facing a Cleveland lineup at 130 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6, he is a strong candidate to be knocked out early, making plus money on the under to 14.5 outs clear value.
DET @ PIT6:40 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
DET @ PITMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Keider Montero R
xERA3.16 (good)ERA2.45 (elite)K%9.7 (poor)
More Stats
HH%37.9 (avg)Barrel%6.9 (good)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs85BB%8.3
PIT vs RHP · last 6
wRC+99 (avg)12+101 (avg)K%20.6 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)Whiff%18.0 (above)
Braxton Ashcraft R
xERA2.41 (elite)ERA2.84 (elite)K%29.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs79BB%4.5
DET vs RHP · last 6
wRC+149 (elite)12+110 (avg)K%17.1 (above)HH%37.6 (avg)Whiff%18.5 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
DET
xERA 3.36 (good)ERA 3.22 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 3.29 (good)ERA 3.99 (avg)2d stress Stressed (6.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalDET+134+1.5 (-175)O8.0 (-108)PIT-140-1.5 (+146)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalDET+132+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-104)PIT-166-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UDET3.5 (-113/-113)1.5 (-115/-115)PIT4.5 (+114/-140)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKeider Montero3.5 (-119 / -102)15.5 (-122 / -102)Braxton Ashcraft5.5 (-122 / +107)17.5 (-102 / -129)
Keider Montero · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13vs W6.18803100
W6.18803100Aug 7@ L6.08255355
L6.08255355Aug 2@ W6.08622200
W6.08622200Jul 27vs L4.18019146
L4.18019146Jul 22@ W5.18183011
W5.18183011Braxton Ashcraft · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13@ 
W9.085103111
W9.085103111Aug 6@ 
L5.08253134
L5.08253134Aug 1@ W5.06952111
W5.06952111Jul 26vs W6.09357244
W6.09357244Jul 20@ L3.07429178
L3.07429178SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Braxton Ashcraft
IPERAKHBB
vs DET—
home starts5.75.29poor7.05.71.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs W6.09357244
W6.09357244Jul 11vs W5.09865255
W5.09865255Jun 24vs W6.086105011
W6.086105011Trends · DET
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 8-2 in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 3-2 in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Keider Montero's last 5 away starts.
- DET average 5.2 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.6 runs/game in Keider Montero's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- DET are 2-3 to the over in Keider Montero's last 5 starts.
- DET are 1-2 to the over in Keider Montero's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 3-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 6.4 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 5.8 runs/game in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 to the over in Braxton Ashcraft's last 5 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
80°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph W
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- DET bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PIT bullpen stressed (6.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- DET — Keider Montero: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-17 — may affect pitch count or availability
- DET — Keider Montero: 2026-08-07: 5 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 8) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- DET — Keider Montero: recent opponents low-K: ATH 14%, SFG 18%, CLE 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Detroit's 149 wRC+ over their last 6 is a 39-point spike over their last 12 heat that runs into an elite Ashcraft, and that clash of a hot streak against a top arm leaves everything too murky to bet.
MIA @ PHI✓6:40 PM · Citizens Bank ParkHitter Friendly
MIA @ PHI✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Cade Gibson
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
PHI
No data
Zack Wheeler R
xERA3.47 (good)ERA5.84 (poor)K%24.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs4.1 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs77BB%10.3
MIA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+120 (above)12+111 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)Whiff%19.6 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.28 (good)ERA 4.50 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
PHI
xERA 3.38 (good)ERA 4.91 (below)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+200+1.5 (-111)O8.0 (-115)PHI-214-1.5 (-103)U8.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+210+1.5 (-140)O4.5 (-108)PHI-250-1.5 (+108)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA3.5 (+114/+116)1.5 (+110/-140)PHI4.5 (-120/-105)2.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCade Gibson——Zack Wheeler7.5 (+109 / -136)17.5 (-165 / +134)
Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ L5.08456145
L5.08456145Aug 7vs L5.111667544
L5.111667544Aug 2@ W2.03231000
W2.03231000Jul 27@ L3.06866155
L3.06866155Jul 21vs 
L7.09395022
L7.09395022SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zack Wheeler
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA5.03.60good7.73.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27@ L3.06866155
L3.06866155Jun 15vs W6.09792300
W6.09792300May 1@ W6.09483211
W6.09483211home starts5.45.52poor8.37.02.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs L5.111667544
L5.111667544Jul 21vs L7.09395022
L7.09395022Jul 1vs W4.2104109144
W4.2104109144Trends · MIA
- MIA are 5-6 vs PHI this season (11 games).
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- MIA are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · PHI
- PHI are 6-5 vs MIA this season (11 games).
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- PHI have won 4 straight.
- PHI are 1-4 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 3-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 home starts.
- PHI average 4.2 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 5.6 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PHI are 2-3 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-1 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph NW
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- MIA — Cade Gibson: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- PHI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PHI — Zack Wheeler: 2026-08-12: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
Zack Wheeler o7.5 Ks (+109)
Wheeler has struck out Miami 8, 9 and 6 times across his last 3 meetings with them — a 7.7 K/start pattern that holds regardless of results. His 24.1 K% over his last 3 remains sharp (he fanned 3 in a 2-inning outing on rate alone), and the 17.5-out line gives him the six innings this number needs against a lineup he consistently misses bats against. Plus money on a bat-missing arm versus a familiar opponent is the mispricing.
TOR @ 
TBR✓6:40 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
TOR @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Jose Soriano R
xERA4.95 (below)ERA1.15 (elite)K%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%47.6 (poor)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs90BB%12.9
TBR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+162 (elite)12+141 (elite)K%14.2 (elite)HH%33.1 (below)Whiff%17.3 (elite)
Nick Martinez R
xERA4.49 (avg)ERA4.35 (avg)K%13.9 (below)
More Stats
HH%41.2 (below)Barrel%8.8 (avg)IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs84BB%0.0
TOR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+81 (below)12+101 (avg)K%23.6 (avg)HH%39.3 (avg)Whiff%23.2 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 2.87 (elite)ERA 2.91 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 3.91 (avg)ERA 4.30 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+120+1.5 (-190)O7.5 (-108)TBR-126-1.5 (+158)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+105+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (+104)TBR-130-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-135)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (-111/-115)1.5 (-130/+100)TBR3.5 (-125/+110)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJose Soriano4.5 (+102 / -119)16.5 (-120 / +104)Nick Martinez3.5 (-104 / -112)17.5 (-172 / +139)
Jose Soriano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W6.09044211
W6.09044211Aug 7@ W4.29434312
W4.29434312Jul 26@ W5.08553301
W5.08553301Jul 20vs W7.09574122
W7.09574122Jul 12@ L5.07705233
L5.07705233Nick Martinez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ W9.010158044
W9.010158044Aug 5@ W5.27546000
W5.27546000Jul 31vs L6.07727066
L6.07727066Jul 25vs W6.08454000
W6.08454000Jul 20@ W6.08206111
W6.08206111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jose Soriano
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.44.44avg4.35.02.0(3)
at TBR7.21.25elite4.05.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 13vs W5.07653200
W5.07653200Aug 5vs L4.06547177
L4.06547177Apr 10@ W7.29345311
W7.29345311Nick Martinez
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR5.51.64elite2.05.51.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20@ W6.08206111
W6.08206111May 4vs W5.07145111
W5.07145111home starts5.74.21avg2.75.00.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 31vs L6.07727066
L6.07727066Jul 25vs W6.08454000
W6.08454000Jul 10vs W5.17014122
W5.17014122Trends · TOR
- TOR are 2-8 vs TBR this season (10 games).
- TOR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 2-2 in Jose Soriano's last 4 starts.
- TOR are 1-1 in Jose Soriano's last 2 away starts.
- TOR average 3.8 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 4 starts.
- TOR average 4.0 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 2-0 to the over in Jose Soriano's last 2 starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 8-2 vs TOR this season (10 games).
- TBR are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 4-1 in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 4-1 in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 5.4 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 4.2 runs/game in Nick Martinez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 1-2 to the over in Nick Martinez's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 5
- TBR bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR — Jose Soriano: recent opponents low-K: SFG 18%, PHI 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- TBR — Nick Martinez: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- TBR — Nick Martinez: 2026-07-31: 6 ER in 6.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
TBR F5 Team Total o2.5 (+120)
Tampa Bay is at 158 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 141 over its last 12, an elite bat-on-ball lineup with just an 11.6% strikeout rate. Soriano's 1.15 ERA over his last 3 is a mirage against his 4.95 xERA, 47.6% hard-hit rate, and 12.9% walk rate, so heavy contact is coming early. Getting plus money on the Rays scoring 3 in the first five innings against a regression-bound starter is the play the full-game price does not offer.
ARI @ BOS7:10 PM · Fenway ParkHitter Friendly
ARI @ BOSMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Merrill Kelly R
xERA6.02 (poor)ERA6.89 (poor)K%15.9 (below)
More Stats
HH%42.5 (below)Barrel%6.4 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs82BB%15.9
BOS vs RHP · last 6
wRC+128 (above)12+132 (elite)K%19.5 (above)HH%33.8 (below)Whiff%21.8 (avg)
Ranger Suarez L
xERA5.55 (poor)ERA4.97 (below)K%13.0 (below)
More Stats
HH%41.5 (below)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs72BB%9.3
ARI vs LHP · last 6
wRC+114 (avg)12+118 (above)K%23.0 (avg)HH%41.2 (above)Whiff%16.3 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 5.01 (below)ERA 4.54 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
BOS
xERA 2.59 (elite)ERA 3.40 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+153+1.5 (-149)O8.0 (-105)BOS-165-1.5 (+126)U8.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+148+0.5 (-102)O4.5 (-104)BOS-188-0.5 (-128)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI3.5 (+100/-120)1.5 (-110/-120)BOS4.5 (+102/-125)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMerrill Kelly3.5 (-136 / +108)15.5 (-122 / -105)Ranger Suarez4.5 (-125 / +105)15.5 (-112 / -105)
Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs L5.07126366
L5.07126366Aug 7vs W5.28042411
W5.28042411Aug 2@ L5.09658455
L5.09658455Jul 27@ L5.29364101
L5.29364101Jul 22vs W5.08735122
W5.08735122Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ L5.08126111
L5.08126111Aug 6vs W3.07033234
W3.07033234Jul 31@ W4.26524233
W4.26524233Jul 26vs W4.06464000
W4.06464000Jul 5@ W2.25356033
W2.25356033SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI3.616.25poor4.07.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 21@ L4.07928166
L4.07928166May 4vs L3.28267277
L3.28267277home starts4.34.15avg5.74.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs W3.07033234
W3.07033234Jul 26vs W4.06464000
W4.06464000Jun 29vs 
W6.09585133
W6.09585133Trends · ARI
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 2-3 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-4 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 5.0 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 1.6 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 1-4 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 0-3 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BOS
- BOS are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 4-1 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 4-1 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 home starts.
- BOS average 7.6 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 7.2 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BOS are 3-1 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 4 starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
74°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph E
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- ARI bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.01 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- ARI bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- BOS bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: recent opponents low-K: CLE 14%, LAD 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-08-06: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both starters are poor and both lineups are live, but the market has already set a modest total and priced Boston as a clear favorite, leaving no gap to attack.
SDP @ NYM✓7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
SDP @ NYM✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Robbie Ray L
xERA4.47 (avg)ERA4.20 (avg)K%18.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%40.5 (below)Barrel%9.5 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs87BB%14.1
NYM vs LHP · last 6
wRC+45 (poor)12+94 (below)K%24.7 (below)HH%38.2 (avg)Whiff%23.5 (avg)
Zac Thornton L
xERA4.70 (below)ERA3.45 (good)K%10.4 (poor)
More Stats
HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs79BB%9.0
SDP vs LHP · last 6
wRC+145 (elite)12+113 (avg)K%23.9 (avg)HH%34.1 (below)Whiff%25.2 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 1.78 (elite)ERA 2.22 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.70 (good)ERA 2.79 (elite)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP-109-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (-110)NYM+104+1.5 (-170)U8.5 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP-114-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-128)NYM-110+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP4.5 (+116/-130)2.5 (+110/-140)NYM3.5 (-142/+114)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URobbie Ray4.5 (-128 / +101)15.5 (+115 / -137)Zac Thornton3.5 (-120 / -101)15.5 (-105 / -122)
Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W4.08442322
W4.08442322Aug 7vs L5.09227544
L5.09227544Jul 30@ W6.08664111
W6.08664111Jul 25vs W6.08056200
W6.08056200Jul 19@ L4.08668213
L4.08668213Zac Thornton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ L6.08027133
L6.08027133Aug 7@ W5.06334200
W5.06334200Aug 1vs L4.29426334
L4.29426334Jul 27vs W6.18156133
W6.18156133Jul 21@ W6.08123100
W6.08123100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Robbie Ray
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.82.60elite5.34.02.3(3)
at NYM7.01.29elite6.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 2vs W5.19673322
W5.19673322Aug 1@ W7.010264111
W7.010264111Jul 26vs L5.210235322
L5.210235322Zac Thornton
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP—
home starts5.83.12good4.04.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 1vs L4.29426334
L4.29426334Jul 27vs W6.18156133
W6.18156133Jul 12vs L7.08252200
L7.08252200Trends · SDP
- SDP are 1-3 vs NYM this season (4 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 1-2 in Robbie Ray's last 3 starts.
- SDP average 2.7 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 3 starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 1-2 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 3 starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 3-1 vs SDP this season (4 games).
- NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM have won 4 straight.
- NYM are 3-2 in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-3 in Zac Thornton's last 4 home starts.
- NYM average 5.8 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.8 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 3-2 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-2 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SSE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- SDP — Robbie Ray: 2026-08-07: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- NYM — Zac Thornton: recent opponents low-K: MIA 18%, ATL 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
SDP Team Total o4.5 (+112)
San Diego is at 153 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6 and 121 over its last 12, elite and confirmed by both windows. Thornton is a left-hander with a 4.70 xERA and a 10.4% strikeout rate over his last 3, so he cannot miss bats against a lineup built to punish lefties. Plus money on the Padres clearing 4.5 misprices a severe pitching-hitting mismatch.
ATH @ KCR✓7:40 PM · Kauffman StadiumHot
ATH @ KCR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Jack Perkins R
xERA4.67 (below)ERA11.48 (poor)K%20.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%13.7 (below)IP/gs4.4 IP/gsH/gs8.7PC/gs86BB%7.1
KCR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+98 (avg)12+80 (below)K%21.3 (avg)HH%33.3 (below)Whiff%17.6 (elite)
Mason Black R
xERA5.96 (poor)ERA4.50 (below)K%6.7 (poor)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%5.7 (good)IP/gs10.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs57BB%15.6
ATH vs RHP · last 6
wRC+126 (above)12+107 (avg)K%13.7 (elite)HH%34.5 (below)Whiff%20.4 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 4.04 (avg)ERA 5.77 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 5.09 (below)ERA 4.05 (avg)2d stress Fresh (0.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+136+1.5 (-160)O9.5 (+102)KCR-140-1.5 (+136)U9.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+120+0.5 (-130)O5.5 (+100)KCR-138-0.5 (+100)U5.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH4.5 (+114/-140)1.5 (-160/+124)KCR4.5 (-125/+108)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJack Perkins3.5 (-136 / +119)14.5 (-155 / +123)Mason Black——
Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs L5.097212167
L5.097212167Aug 7@ L3.07035355
L3.07035355Aug 1vs L5.19199166
L5.19199166Jul 27vs L5.26941322
L5.26941322Jul 21@ L5.08745133
L5.08745133Mason Black · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ L3.0*4413211
L3.0*4413211Aug 7vs L5.0*8623322
L5.0*8623322Jun 18vs W2.0*4003222
W2.0*4003222Jun 15@ L2.0*3601111
L2.0*3601111Jun 12vs L2.1*4833311
L2.1*4833311Trends · ATH
- ATH are 2-2 vs KCR this season (4 games).
- ATH are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 0-5 in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 0-4 in Jack Perkins's last 4 away starts.
- ATH average 3.6 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 2.2 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 3-2 to the over in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-1 to the over in Jack Perkins's last 3 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 2-2 vs ATH this season (4 games).
- KCR are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hot
91°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph SSE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- KCR bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.09 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- KCR bullpen fresh (0.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-09 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATH — Jack Perkins: high-K outing 2026-08-01 (9 Ks vs avg 4.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent opponents low-K: DET 17%, TBR 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- KCR — Mason Black: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-12, 2026-08-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
KCR Team Total u4.5 (+110)
Kansas City is at 52 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 70 over its last 12 — a genuinely dead offense from both windows. Perkins carries a 4.67 xERA over his last 3 despite an ugly ERA, meaning he has pitched better than his run totals show, and a 24.4% strikeout rate for the Royals against right-handers makes them easy outs. Plus money on this lineup staying under 4.5 is value.
ATL @ MIN✓7:40 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
ATL @ MIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Tyler Mahle R
xERA2.64 (elite)ERA3.06 (good)K%36.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.6 (below)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs95BB%5.8
MIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+111 (avg)12+92 (below)K%23.0 (avg)HH%45.2 (elite)Whiff%26.1 (below)
Zebby Matthews R
xERA4.05 (avg)ERA6.00 (poor)K%26.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%62.8 (poor)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs93BB%8.8
ATL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+59 (poor)12+74 (poor)K%21.8 (avg)HH%35.0 (avg)Whiff%18.7 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 3.99 (avg)ERA 3.86 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 2.93 (elite)ERA 2.68 (elite)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-122-1.5 (+130)O8.5 (-120)MIN+116+1.5 (-156)U8.5 (+104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-125-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-130)MIN+102+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL4.5 (-111/-110)2.5 (+110/-140)MIN3.5 (-140/+110)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTyler Mahle4.5 (-122 / -104)16.5 (-116 / -114)Zebby Matthews4.5 (+114 / -130)15.5 (-125 / -103)
Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W6.09374011
W6.09374011Aug 7@ L6.09293200
L6.09293200Aug 1@ L5.29995255
L5.29995255Jul 27vs W6.08833200
W6.08833200Jul 21@ L5.09145133
L5.09145133Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W5.09446244
W5.09446244Aug 7@ W5.08347236
W5.08347236Jul 31@ W5.0101104233
W5.0101104233Jul 24vs L6.09213322
L6.09213322Jul 19@ L3.087493810
L3.087493810SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN5.14.41avg3.57.51.0(2)
at MIN5.26.92poor3.010.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 25vs L5.07845111
L5.07845111Jun 10@ W5.291310144
W5.291310144Zebby Matthews
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL—
home starts5.75.29poor2.76.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W5.09446244
W5.09446244Jul 24vs L6.09213322
L6.09213322Jul 10vs L6.010239244
L6.010239244Trends · ATL
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 1-1 in Tyler Mahle's last 2 starts.
- ATL are 0-1 in Tyler Mahle's last 1 away starts.
- ATL average 4.0 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 2 starts.
- ATL average 2.0 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 1-1 to the over in Tyler Mahle's last 2 starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 3-2 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 2-3 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 4.2 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 3.2 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 2-3 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 0-3 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
81°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 7 mph WNW
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 1
- ATL — Tyler Mahle: 2026-08-01: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Tyler Mahle o4.5 Ks (-122)
Mahle has struck out 9, 9, and 7 over his last 3 starts with a 36.2% strikeout rate, averaging 8.3 punchouts per outing. His outs line sits at 16.5 (5.5 innings), giving him the length, and Minnesota's 21.8% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6 offers no protection. A line of 4.5 sits well below his current form.
SEA @ MIL7:40 PM · American Family FieldRainy
SEA @ MILMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Bryce Miller R
xERA3.25 (good)ERA6.06 (poor)K%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%8.2 (avg)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs90BB%7.5
MIL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+59 (poor)12+80 (below)K%25.0 (below)HH%45.1 (elite)Whiff%27.0 (below)
Kyle Harrison L
xERA4.10 (avg)ERA7.24 (poor)K%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%41.5 (below)Barrel%12.2 (below)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs76BB%6.7
SEA vs LHP · last 6
wRC+77 (poor)12+79 (poor)K%27.5 (below)HH%43.1 (above)Whiff%23.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 3.98 (avg)ERA 7.17 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 2.72 (elite)ERA 2.58 (elite)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+140+1.5 (-160)O7.5 (-114)MIL-145-1.5 (+149)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+120+0.5 (-128)O4.5 (+112)MIL-148-0.5 (-102)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (+106/-125)1.5 (-120/-110)MIL4.5 (+122/+114)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Miller5.5 (+115 / -128)16.5 (-101 / -130)Kyle Harrison5.5 (-155 / +126)15.5 (-120 / -108)
Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ L6.08958155
L6.08958155Aug 6vs L5.09355244
L5.09355244Jul 31vs L5.18733222
L5.18733222Jul 24@ L5.18906155
L5.18906155Jul 17vs L5.29167123
L5.29167123Kyle Harrison · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 11@ L4.290310338
L4.290310338Aug 5vs W5.069101100
W5.069101100Jul 8@ L4.07024033
L4.07024033Jul 3@ W2.27235133
W2.27235133Jun 27vs L5.09293122
L5.09293122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Harrison
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA—
home starts5.31.12elite7.32.30.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs W5.069101100
W5.069101100Jun 27vs L5.09293122
L5.09293122Jun 14vs W6.08033000
W6.08033000Trends · SEA
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 0-5 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-4 in Bryce Miller's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 2.4 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 4.8 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 4-0 to the over in Bryce Miller's last 4 starts.
- SEA are 3-0 to the over in Bryce Miller's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-3 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 4-1 in Kyle Harrison's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 3.2 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.8 runs/game in Kyle Harrison's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 1-3 to the over in Kyle Harrison's last 4 starts.
- MIL are 0-2 to the over in Kyle Harrison's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Rainy
82°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph WSW
APF 100 — Neutral · Rain possible (32%)
Flags · 4
- MIL bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: low-K outing 2026-07-08 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- MIL — Kyle Harrison: high-K outing 2026-08-05 (10 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- WEATHER: rain risk 32% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
AI Analysis
Both lineups are slumping and Harrison has been strong at home, but Seattle's bullpen collapse and the pricing leave no clean number to take.
CHW @ CHC✓8:05 PM · Wrigley FieldRainy
CHW @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Erick Fedde R
xERA4.17 (avg)ERA8.31 (poor)K%9.1 (poor)
More Stats
HH%41.2 (below)Barrel%5.9 (good)IP/gs4.1 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs24BB%13.6
CHC vs RHP · last 6
wRC+114 (avg)12+110 (avg)K%20.8 (avg)HH%36.8 (avg)Whiff%22.5 (avg)
Kevin Gausman R
xERA3.28 (good)ERA4.67 (below)K%20.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.8 (below)Barrel%5.5 (good)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs94BB%4.1
CHW vs RHP · last 6
wRC+150 (elite)12+116 (above)K%22.9 (avg)HH%40.8 (above)Whiff%23.6 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.58 (good)ERA 3.38 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 5.02 (below)ERA 4.40 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+150+1.5 (-150)O9.0 (-105)CHC-161-1.5 (+130)U9.0 (-112)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+146+0.5 (+100)O4.5 (-122)CHC-180-0.5 (-130)U4.5 (-106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-128/+105)1.5 (-145/+114)CHC4.5 (-122/+100)2.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UErick Fedde——Kevin Gausman6.5 (+120 / -136)17.5 (-131 / +105)
Erick Fedde · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13vs L3.0*5115244
L3.0*5115244Aug 7vs L1.0*1510000
L1.0*1510000Aug 6@ L0.1*501101
L0.1*501101Aug 4@ L3.0*5015145
L3.0*5015145Jul 31@ W5.09164011
W5.09164011Kevin Gausman · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13@ L4.29377166
L4.29377166Aug 7@ W7.09644122
W7.09644122Aug 1vs W5.29449111
W5.29449111Jul 26@ L6.09865133
L6.09865133Jul 21vs L3.19019245
L3.19019245SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Erick Fedde
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC2.417.26poor1.35.33.3(3)
at CHC1.124.55poor0.02.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 17vs W3.09226444
W3.09226444Jul 6@ L1.15302433
L1.15302433Jun 25vs L3.27828277
L3.27828277Kevin Gausman
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW—
home starts4.83.78avg4.07.71.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 1vs W5.29449111
W5.29449111Jul 21vs L3.19019245
L3.19019245Jun 30vs L6.09675211
L6.09675211Trends · CHW
- CHW are 2-2 vs CHC this season (4 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 5-0 in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 4-1 in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.
- CHW average 9.0 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 7.2 runs/game in Erick Fedde's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHW are 1-4 to the over in Erick Fedde's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Erick Fedde's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 2-2 vs CHW this season (4 games).
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 2-1 in Kevin Gausman's last 3 starts.
- CHC are 1-0 in Kevin Gausman's last 1 home starts.
- CHC average 7.3 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 3 starts.
- CHC average 16.0 runs/game in Kevin Gausman's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Rainy
74°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 96 — Pitcher Friendly · Rain possible (23%)
Flags · 8
- CHW — Erick Fedde: small sample (4.1 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- CHC bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.02 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- CHW bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHW — Erick Fedde: 18 days since last start (2026-07-31) — may not be fully stretched out news ↗
- CHW — Erick Fedde: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-13, 2026-08-07 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHC — Kevin Gausman: 2026-08-13: 6 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 13) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: rain risk 23% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
CHC Team Total o4.5 (-115)
Fedde has faced the Cubs three times and been hammered each outing — 7 ER, 3 ER, and 4 ER while lasting just 2.4 IP/gs for a 17.26 ERA against them. He walks 13.6% and is coming off 18 days with recent bullpen work, so his command is shaky, and Chicago sits at 111 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 108 over its last 12. A 4.5 team total is too low for a lineup that has repeatedly torched this exact arm.
WSN @ TEX8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Roof Closed)
WSN @ TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
TEX
No data
Cal Quantrill R
xERA3.42 (good)ERA1.50 (elite)K%20.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.1 (avg)Barrel%2.9 (elite)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs61BB%8.2
WSN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+81 (below)12+97 (avg)K%24.8 (below)HH%31.1 (below)Whiff%22.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.66 (below)ERA 3.86 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 3.48 (good)ERA 4.47 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+140+1.5 (-162)O8.0 (-110)TEX-148-1.5 (+135)U8.0 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+126+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-108)TEX-158-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (-111/-115)1.5 (-140/+110)TEX4.5 (+108/-135)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTBD——Cal Quantrill3.5 (-110 / -111)15.5 (+115 / -130)
Cal Quantrill · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ L5.08564311
L5.08564311Aug 8vs W1.0*1000000
W1.0*1000000Aug 3vs L6.08744113
L6.08744113Jul 28@ W5.16972111
W5.16972111Jul 22vs L3.0*5512322
L3.0*5512322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cal Quantrill
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.05.40poor2.07.05.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 13vs W5.07727533
W5.07727533home starts6.01.50elite4.04.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 3vs L6.08744113
L6.08744113Trends · WSN
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 1-9 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-2 in Cal Quantrill's last 3 home starts.
- TEX average 3.0 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 2.7 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 1-4 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-2 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- WSN — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- WSN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TEX bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-08, 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent opponents low-K: TBR 14%, SFG 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Washington starts an unknown pitcher with no stats, which makes the run environment impossible to handicap on one side.
LAA @ HOU8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
LAA @ HOUMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
George Klassen R
xERA4.82 (below)ERA6.00 (poor)K%16.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%38.5 (avg)Barrel%7.7 (good)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs81BB%16.7
HOU vs RHP · last 6
wRC+86 (below)12+84 (below)K%20.4 (avg)HH%38.9 (avg)Whiff%25.0 (below)
Cristian Javier R
xERA4.41 (avg)ERA3.94 (avg)K%16.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%35.2 (avg)Barrel%7.4 (good)IP/gs8.0 IP/gsH/gs9.0PC/gs80BB%1.5
LAA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+95 (avg)12+80 (below)K%25.2 (below)HH%39.1 (avg)Whiff%25.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 2.43 (elite)ERA 3.99 (avg)2d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.12 (good)ERA 2.79 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+151+1.5 (-143)O9.0 (-114)HOU-156-1.5 (+130)U9.0 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+130+0.5 (-110)O5.5 (+110)HOU-164-0.5 (-118)U5.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (-142/+114)2.5 (+130/-166)HOU4.5 (-125/+105)2.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGeorge Klassen4.5 (+125 / -148)14.5 (-140 / +107)Cristian Javier4.5 (-113 / +100)15.5 (+130 / -146)
George Klassen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W6.08755122
W6.08755122Aug 7@ W4.08334411
W4.08334411Apr 11@ L2.07224545
L2.07224545Apr 5vs W2.27343522
W2.27343522Cristian Javier · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ L5.08628144
L5.08628144Aug 3vs L6.08527033
L6.08527033Jul 27@ W5.0*7073000
W5.0*7073000Jul 19vs L1.0*2021000
L1.0*2021000Jul 12@ L3.06044333
L3.06044333SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cristian Javier
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.15.29poor3.52.03.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 28vs W4.27414466
W4.27414466Aug 29vs W6.08560300
W6.08560300home starts6.04.50below2.07.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 3vs L6.08527033
L6.08527033Trends · LAA
- LAA are 4-6 vs HOU this season (10 games).
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 3-1 in George Klassen's last 4 starts.
- LAA are 1-1 in George Klassen's last 2 away starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in George Klassen's last 4 starts.
- LAA average 3.5 runs/game in George Klassen's last 2 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 0-2 to the over in George Klassen's last 2 starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 6-4 vs LAA this season (10 games).
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 0-5 in Cristian Javier's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 1-1 in Cristian Javier's last 2 home starts.
- HOU average 2.6 runs/game in Cristian Javier's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 6.0 runs/game in Cristian Javier's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 1-1 to the over in Cristian Javier's last 2 starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 5
- HOU bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAA — George Klassen: 2026-04-11: 4 ER in 2.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- HOU — Cristian Javier: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-19 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TREND: LAA — was shut out 3-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
Two below-average offenses face two middling arms with no head-to-head edge, and the strikeout props both pit a low-whiff pitcher against a higher-strikeout lineup, which is a pass.
LAD @ COL✓8:40 PM · Coors FieldHot
LAD @ COL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Eric Lauer L
xERA3.37 (good)ERA3.86 (avg)K%15.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%31.5 (good)Barrel%7.4 (good)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs98BB%4.3
COL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+35 (poor)12+48 (poor)K%17.9 (above)HH%18.4 (poor)Whiff%22.1 (avg)
Ryan Feltner R
xERA3.36 (good)ERA4.96 (below)K%9.5 (poor)
More Stats
HH%28.3 (elite)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs90BB%9.5
LAD vs RHP · last 6
wRC+114 (avg)12+94 (below)K%18.6 (above)HH%40.6 (above)Whiff%24.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAD
xERA 2.66 (elite)ERA 3.51 (good)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
COL
xERA 4.67 (below)ERA 3.91 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAD-180-1.5 (-125)O11.5 (-115)COL+173+1.5 (+105)U11.5 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAD-166-0.5 (-130)O6.5 (-110)COL+132+0.5 (+100)U6.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAD6.5 (-115/-105)3.5 (+100/-130)COL4.5 (-125/+100)2.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UEric Lauer3.5 (-122 / -102)17.5 (+104 / -137)Ryan Feltner3.5 (+112 / -139)15.5 (+138 / -165)
Eric Lauer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs W6.111264212
W6.111264212Aug 5@ L4.095111066
L4.095111066Jul 29vs W6.08741100
W6.08741100Jul 22@ W5.19154133
W5.19154133Jul 6vs W6.09936233
W6.09936233Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@ W5.09327322
W5.09327322Aug 7@ L5.19125333
L5.19125333Aug 1vs W6.08738144
W6.08738144Jul 25@ L5.08249155
L5.08249155Jul 19vs L2.17137488
L2.17137488SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eric Lauer
IPERAKHBB
vs COL6.02.50elite3.75.71.3(3)
at COL6.01.50elite4.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 6vs W6.09936233
W6.09936233May 26vs W6.09644111
W6.09644111Aug 4@ W6.09747111
W6.09747111Ryan Feltner
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD3.78.51poor3.05.03.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 18vs W5.28755123
W5.28755123Apr 15@ L2.28115655
L2.28115655home starts4.78.94poor5.07.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 1vs W6.08738144
W6.08738144Jul 19vs L2.17137488
L2.17137488Jul 3vs W6.08896023
W6.08896023Trends · LAD
- LAD are 8-3 vs COL this season (11 games).
- LAD are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-1 in Eric Lauer's last 5 away starts.
- LAD average 6.2 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 8.4 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAD are 3-2 to the over in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-0 to the over in Eric Lauer's last 2 away starts.
Trends · COL
- COL are 3-8 vs LAD this season (11 games).
- COL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 2-3 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 3-2 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 home starts.
- COL average 6.2 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL average 7.8 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- COL are 2-3 to the over in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-1 to the over in Ryan Feltner's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hot
90°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SE
APF 115 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- COL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD — Eric Lauer: last start: 112 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- LAD — Eric Lauer: 2026-08-05: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- LAD — Eric Lauer: recent opponents high-K: SEA 27%, CHC 28%, KCR 34% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: hitter-friendly park (APF 115) — park boosts offense, favor the over and HR props
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
COL Team Total u4.5 (+100)
Colorado is at 35 wRC+ vs LHP over their last 6 and 48 over their last 12 — a genuinely broken profile against lefties, not a slump. Lauer carries a 3.37 xERA over his last 3 and has owned this lineup: 2.50 ERA across his last 3 starts vs Colorado including a 1.50 mark in this park. With the Dodgers' bullpen at a 2.66 xERA over its last 12 behind him, four-plus runs is a stretch even at altitude, and the plus-money price is charging for Coors rather than the matchup.