AI Picks · 14 Bets · Aug 12
DET Team Total o3.5 (-142)
Detroit's lineup has been elite against left-handers over its last 12 at a 152 wRC+ with a low 18.9% strikeout rate, and it faces Foster Griffin, a lefty with a 4.87 xERA and 7.88 ERA over his last 3 who was rocked for 5 earned in 4 innings his last time out. The Tigers have averaged 5.8 runs over their last 10. Against a lefty this hittable, crossing four runs is more likely than the number implies.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
SEA @ NYY u8.5 (+100)
Seattle sits at 79 wRC+ and the Yankees at 70 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 12 — two struggling lineups. Bryce Miller carries a 3.45 xERA over his last 3 despite a shiny surface ERA, and Will Warren owns a 1.76 ERA with 6.5 K per start across two meetings with the Mariners. Two weak offenses under a number this size, at even money, is value on the under.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
Will Warren o4.5 Ks (-130)
Warren has a 27.0 K% over his last 3 with totals of 5, 7, and 5, and he has owned Seattle across two prior meetings at 6.5 K/gs (9 and 4). The Mariners strike out at 23.2% vs RHP over their last 12, and his 16.5 outs line gives him the length to clear this. Even in his shortest recent start he racked up 5 in 3 innings, so 4.5 at -130 is priced short of what his bat-missing profile against this opponent supports.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
BOS ML (-125)
Boston's offense has been elite against right-handers over its last 12 at a 144 wRC+ with a low 16.9% strikeout rate, facing a Jose Soriano who was tagged for 7 earned in 3.2 innings the last time these clubs met. Ranger Suarez has thrown three straight scoreless starts against Toronto (6.3 IP, 7.3 K per start), and the Jays have hit just 43 wRC+ against lefties over their last 12. With Boston's bullpen humming at a 1.74 xERA over its last 12 and the club 5-0 in its starter's last five, -125 undervalues the two-sided edge.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
TOR Team Total u3.5 (-135)
Toronto has been dreadful against left-handed pitching over its last 12 at a 43 wRC+ with a 24.1% strikeout rate, and Ranger Suarez has held them scoreless across three consecutive meetings while averaging 6.3 innings. Boston's bullpen at a 1.74 xERA over its last 12 offers no relief for the Jays late. The market is not fully accounting for how badly this lineup has matched up with this arm.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
ATL -1.5 (+135)
Atlanta's lineup has been elite against left-handers over the last 12 games at a 154 wRC+ with just a 17.2% strikeout rate, and it faces Zac Thornton, a lefty with a 4.58 xERA, a 42.9% hard-hit rate, and a 63-pitch hook last time out. On the other side Tyler Mahle carries a 2.67 xERA over his last 3 and a 0.49 ERA across his last 3 home starts to smother a Mets attack sitting at 106 wRC+. Atlanta is 9-1 at home over its last 10; at plus money the runline pays for a comfortable win the market is only pricing as a coin-flip margin.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
Tyler Mahle o5.5 Ks (+130)
Mahle has struck out 9 in each of his last two starts and carries a 30.9% K rate over his last 3, with a 16.5-out line giving him room at his 5.9 IP recent workload. The Mets whiff at a 23.5% rate against righties over their last 12, a group that supports the miss. A 30%-K arm in this kind of form at plus money on a 5.5 line is value the market has not caught up to.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
ATL Team Total o4.5 (-113)
Atlanta's lineup is scorching against left-handed pitching at 169 wRC+ over its last 12 with a tiny 14.4 K% and 43.8 HH%, and it draws a below-average lefty in Zac Thornton whose 4.58 xERA over his last 3 tops his 3.38 ERA, meaning his run prevention has been running ahead of the contact he allows. Thornton's last outing lasted just 63 pitches and his recent low-strikeout foes (ATL 14%, MIA 18%) flatter his line against a lineup this dangerous. At -113 the market is treating this as a coin flip on the number, but an elite platoon offense facing a regressing lefty who gets left in should clear 4.5 comfortably.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
CIN F5 ML (+120)
Cincinnati has hit 121 wRC+ against righties over its last 12 and draws Luis Castillo, who carries a 5.94 xERA and 7.31 ERA over his last 3, a 14.1% K rate, and a 7.30 ERA across two meetings with the Reds this year. Rhett Lowder counters with a 3.56 xERA over his last 3 against a White Sox lineup at just 86 wRC+ versus righties. Chicago is the favorite despite owning the worse pitcher and the worse bat matchup, so the road dog getting plus money through the first five is the value.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
TEX @ LAA u9.0 (-106)
Both lineups are cold — Texas at 68 wRC+ and the Angels at 58 wRC+ against righties over their last 12 — and Cal Quantrill brings a 2.36 xERA over his last 3 to shut down the worst of the two. George Klassen is wild but works so short (2.9 IP over his last 3) that the Angels' offense is the limiting factor on total scoring. Two of the weakest bats on the board sitting under a number near 9 is a total set too high.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
George Klassen u14.5 Outs (-146)
Klassen has averaged just 2.9 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 26.9 BB% and has not thrown five innings in any of them (2.2, 2.0, 4.0 IP). The 14.5 outs line asks for nearly five full frames, something his command collapse simply hasn't allowed, so the under is the right side even at -146.
Found at 4:42 PM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
TBR Team Total o5.5 (-106)
Tampa's bats have run at a 126 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 12 while striking out just 18.1%, and they draw Jack Perkins, who owns an 8.36 ERA over his last 3 with a 15% barrel rate and a 10.00 ERA across his last 3 home starts. Behind him sits an Oakland bullpen at a 7.92 ERA over its last 12, in a park that plays to a 107 factor. The number sits at a modest over/under despite Tampa averaging 5.6 runs on the road over their last 10 — the market is underpricing how little run prevention this staff offers.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
Drew Rasmussen o5.5 Ks (+130)
Rasmussen has punched out 9, 10, and 8 over his last 3 starts, a 38.6% K rate, and his 17.5-out line gives him the innings to work, sitting at 6.7 IP over those same 3 starts. Oakland strikes out at a 21.6% clip against righties over their last 12, enough contact-avoidance to feed the whiff. Getting plus money on a pitcher averaging nine strikeouts a night is a clear mispricing of his current form.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
HOU Team Total o4.5 (-115)
Houston's bats have been elite against right-handers over the last 12 at a 137 wRC+ with a 19.7% strikeout rate, and Adrian Houser takes the mound having thrown just 29 pitches in his last outing 57 days ago — a starter unlikely to be stretched past a few innings. That funnels this game into a San Francisco bullpen carrying a 4.48 xERA over its last 12. An elite offense against a short-leashed starter and a leaky pen makes the over on this team total the play.
Found at 4:51 AM ET
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
BAL @
MIN1:40 PM · Target FieldHitter Friendly
BAL @
MINMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Shane Baz R
xERA3.06 (good)ERA1.93K%20.8 (avg)
More Stats
HH%43.4 (below avg)Barrel%3.8 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs86BB%5.6
MIN vs RHP
wRC+85 (below avg)K%18.2 (above avg)HH%37.8 (avg)Whiff%20.3
Zebby Matthews R
xERA4.26 (avg)ERA4.50K%21.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%48.9 (poor)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs93BB%10.1
BAL vs RHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%25.3 (below avg)HH%44.8 (above avg)Whiff%24.5
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 5.532d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
MIN
xERA 3.22 (good)ERA 3.352d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+376+1.5 (+850)O12.5 (+800)MIN-466-1.5 (-141)U12.5 (-135)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL-110-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-132)MIN+100+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (+102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL4.5 (+104/-125)2.5 (+110/-140)MIN4.5 (+118/-135)2.5 (+105/-135)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane Baz4.5 (-128 / +108)17.5 (-157 / +122)Zebby Matthews5.5 (+114 / -145)16.5 (+100 / -102)
Shane Baz · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
L3.06529155
L3.06529155Aug 7@
L8.09393122
L8.09393122Aug 1vs
L6.19946111
L6.19946111Jul 26vs
L4.19026212
L4.19026212Jul 20@
L6.07766014
L6.07766014Zebby Matthews · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W5.09446244
W5.09446244Aug 7@
W5.08347236
W5.08347236Jul 31@
W5.0101104233
W5.0101104233Jul 24vs
L6.09213322
L6.09213322Jul 19@
L3.087493810
L3.087493810SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane Baz
IPERAKHBB
vs MIN4.010.003.08.00.5(2)
at MIN3.015.002.09.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
L3.06529155
L3.06529155Mar 29vs
W5.17847044
W5.17847044Zebby Matthews
IPERAKHBB
vs BAL5.07.204.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W5.09446244
W5.09446244home starts5.75.292.76.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W5.09446244
W5.09446244Jul 24vs
L6.09213322
L6.09213322Jul 10vs
L6.010239244
L6.010239244Trends · BAL
- BAL are 3-3 vs MIN this season (6 games).
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 0-5 in Shane Baz's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 3.2 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 2.2 runs/game in Shane Baz's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Shane Baz's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 1-1 to the over in Shane Baz's last 2 away starts.
Trends · MIN
- MIN are 3-3 vs BAL this season (6 games).
- MIN are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 2-3 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 1-4 in Zebby Matthews's last 5 home starts.
- MIN average 3.4 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN average 2.0 runs/game in Zebby Matthews's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIN are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIN are 2-3 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 5 starts.
- MIN are 0-2 to the over in Zebby Matthews's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph ENE
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 7
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- BAL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- MIN bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- BAL — Shane Baz: low-K outing 2026-07-26 (2 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- BAL — Shane Baz: high-K outing 2026-08-07 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: low-K outing 2026-07-24 (1 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- MIN — Zebby Matthews: high-K outing 2026-07-31 (10 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
PHI @
STL2:15 PM · Busch StadiumHot
PHI @
STLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zack Wheeler R
xERA3.32 (good)ERA7.84K%29.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.3 (below avg)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs3.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs77BB%11.8
STL vs RHP
wRC+104 (avg)K%21.2 (avg)HH%39.1 (avg)Whiff%21.9
Kyle Leahy R
xERA4.58 (below avg)ERA2.65K%28.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%10.4 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs6.7PC/gs87BB%2.9
PHI vs RHP
wRC+108 (avg)K%15.1 (elite)HH%41.4 (above avg)Whiff%17.7
Bullpens · Last 12
PHI
xERA 3.27 (good)ERA 4.982d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
STL
xERA 5.01 (below avg)ERA 4.272d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPHI—+5.5 (+296)O8.5 (+125)STL—-5.5 (-431)U8.5 (-146)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPHI-175-0.5 (-120)O4.5 (+110)STL+144+0.5 (-108)U4.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPHI4.5 (-105/-118)2.5 (+110/-140)STL3.5 (+110/-135)1.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZack Wheeler6.5 (+123 / +116)18.5 (+140 / +130)Kyle Leahy3.5 (-160 / +135)15.5 (+146 / -183)
Zack Wheeler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
L5.08456145
L5.08456145Aug 7vs
L5.111667544
L5.111667544Aug 2@
W2.03231000
W2.03231000Jul 27@
L3.06866155
L3.06866155Jul 21vs
L7.09395022
L7.09395022Kyle Leahy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W5.08166011
W5.08166011Aug 7vs
W5.08288022
W5.08288022Jul 31@
L6.09836111
L6.09836111Jul 26vs
L6.010296122
L6.010296122Jul 20@
L6.09543011
L6.09543011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zack Wheeler
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.56.554.06.51.0(2)
at STL5.56.554.06.51.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
L5.08456145
L5.08456145Apr 13@
L6.08937144
L6.08937144Kyle Leahy
IPERAKHBB
vs PHI5.01.806.06.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W5.08166011
W5.08166011home starts5.32.817.76.70.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W5.08166011
W5.08166011Aug 7vs
W5.08288022
W5.08288022Jul 26vs
L6.010296122
L6.010296122Trends · PHI
- PHI are 1-1 vs STL this season (2 games).
- PHI are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 2-3 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 4-1 in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
- PHI average 5.0 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI average 5.2 runs/game in Zack Wheeler's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PHI are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PHI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- PHI are 2-3 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 5 starts.
- PHI are 1-2 to the over in Zack Wheeler's last 3 away starts.
Trends · STL
- STL are 1-1 vs PHI this season (2 games).
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 2-3 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Kyle Leahy's last 5 home starts.
- STL average 2.2 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 2.6 runs/game in Kyle Leahy's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Leahy's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
95°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph NNW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- PHI — Zack Wheeler: avg 3.4 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- STL bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.01 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- PHI — Zack Wheeler: last start: 116 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- PHI — Zack Wheeler: 2026-07-27: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TBR @
ATH✓3:05 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
TBR @
ATH✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Drew Rasmussen R
xERA1.74 (elite)ERA0.00K%38.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%26.3 (elite)Barrel%5.3 (good)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs85BB%5.7
ATH vs RHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%20.1 (avg)HH%35.7 (avg)Whiff%22.1
Jack Perkins R
xERA3.63 (good)ERA8.36K%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%15.0 (below avg)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs86BB%10.9
TBR vs RHP
wRC+138 (elite)K%17.7 (above avg)HH%37.1 (avg)Whiff%18.7
Bullpens · Last 12
TBR
xERA 3.97 (avg)ERA 3.772d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 4.93 (below avg)ERA 8.872d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTBR-4000-5.5 (-131)O13.5 (-120)ATH+2600+5.5 (+110)U13.5 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTBR-195-0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-138)ATH+162+0.5 (+108)U4.5 (+106)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTBR5.5 (-104/-110)2.5 (-130/+100)ATH3.5 (-110/-113)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDrew Rasmussen5.5 (+118 / -143)17.5 (-171 / +129)Jack Perkins4.5 (+130 / +123)14.5 (-120 / -110)
Drew Rasmussen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
W4.16833122
W4.16833122Aug 7@
W7.09182200
W7.09182200Aug 1vs
W6.096104100
W6.096104100Jul 26vs
W7.08791100
W7.08791100Jul 21@
W5.09357122
W5.09357122Jack Perkins · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
L5.097212167
L5.097212167Aug 7@
L3.07035355
L3.07035355Aug 1vs
L5.19199166
L5.19199166Jul 27vs
L5.26941322
L5.26941322Jul 21@
L5.08745133
L5.08745133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Drew Rasmussen
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH4.44.813.33.70.7(3)
at ATH5.02.674.03.00.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
W4.16833122
W4.16833122Aug 13@
W6.07653012
W6.07653012Jun 30vs
L3.05425144
L3.05425144Jack Perkins
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR5.010.802.012.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
L5.097212167
L5.097212167home starts5.18.245.07.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
L5.097212167
L5.097212167Aug 1vs
L5.19199166
L5.19199166Jul 27vs
L5.26941322
L5.26941322Trends · TBR
- TBR are 2-0 vs ATH this season (2 games).
- TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 away games.
- TBR have won 8 straight.
- TBR are 4-1 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 3-2 in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 away starts.
- TBR average 4.0 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 5.6 runs/game in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TBR are 2-3 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-1 to the over in Drew Rasmussen's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 0-2 vs TBR this season (2 games).
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 0-5 in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 0-5 in Jack Perkins's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 3.8 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 5.0 runs/game in Jack Perkins's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 3-2 to the over in Jack Perkins's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-1 to the over in Jack Perkins's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
83°F, Clear, Wind 5 mph SW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- ATH — Jack Perkins: Barrel% 15% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- ATH bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-09 — may affect pitch count or availability
- ATH — Jack Perkins: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- ATH — Jack Perkins: recent opponents low-K: BOS 17%, DET 19%, BOS 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
TBR Team Total o5.5 (-106)
Tampa's bats have run at a 126 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 12 while striking out just 18.1%, and they draw Jack Perkins, who owns an 8.36 ERA over his last 3 with a 15% barrel rate and a 10.00 ERA across his last 3 home starts. Behind him sits an Oakland bullpen at a 7.92 ERA over its last 12, in a park that plays to a 107 factor. The number sits at a modest over/under despite Tampa averaging 5.6 runs on the road over their last 10 — the market is underpricing how little run prevention this staff offers.
Drew Rasmussen o5.5 Ks (+130)
Rasmussen has punched out 9, 10, and 8 over his last 3 starts, a 38.6% K rate, and his 17.5-out line gives him the innings to work, sitting at 6.7 IP over those same 3 starts. Oakland strikes out at a 21.6% clip against righties over their last 12, enough contact-avoidance to feed the whiff. Getting plus money on a pitcher averaging nine strikeouts a night is a clear mispricing of his current form.
COL @
ARI3:40 PM · Chase Field (Roof Closed)
COL @
ARIMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ryan Feltner R
xERA3.69 (good)ERA6.61K%12.3 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%37.3 (avg)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs74BB%6.9
ARI vs RHP
wRC+101 (avg)K%18.5 (above avg)HH%37.0 (avg)Whiff%20.5
Merrill Kelly R
xERA4.57 (below avg)ERA3.31K%22.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%37.2 (avg)Barrel%7.0 (good)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs78BB%13.2
COL vs RHP
wRC+99 (avg)K%20.8 (avg)HH%36.7 (avg)Whiff%23.4
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 3.74 (good)ERA 3.862d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ARI
xERA 4.01 (avg)ERA 3.952d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL-390-4.5 (-112)O11.5 (+102)ARI+650+2.5 (+102)U12.5 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+145+0.5 (-114)O5.5 (+106)ARI-156-0.5 (-114)U5.5 (-138)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (-138/+110)1.5 (-160/+124)ARI4.5 (-145/+114)2.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URyan Feltner3.5 (+128 / -164)14.5 (-166 / +128)Merrill Kelly4.5 (-125 / +104)17.5 (-132 / +100)
Ryan Feltner · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
W3.04525011
W3.04525011Aug 7@
L5.19124333
L5.19124333Aug 1vs
W6.08738144
W6.08738144Jul 25@
L5.08249155
L5.08249155Jul 19vs
L2.17137488
L2.17137488Merrill Kelly · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
L3.15704366
L3.15704366Aug 7vs
W5.28042411
W5.28042411Aug 2@
L5.09658455
L5.09658455Jul 27@
L5.29364101
L5.29364101Jul 22vs
W5.08735122
W5.08735122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ryan Feltner
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI3.03.002.05.00.0(1)
at ARI3.03.002.05.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
W3.04525011
W3.04525011Merrill Kelly
IPERAKHBB
vs COL6.04.483.34.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
L3.15704366
L3.15704366May 15@
W9.010034011
W9.010034011Jun 21@
W6.09476323
W6.09476323home starts4.46.092.33.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
L3.15704366
L3.15704366Aug 7vs
W5.28042411
W5.28042411Jul 22vs
W5.08735122
W5.08735122Trends · COL
- COL are 3-6 vs ARI this season (9 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 1-4 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-4 in Ryan Feltner's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 5.4 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL average 3.2 runs/game in Ryan Feltner's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 3-2 to the over in Ryan Feltner's last 5 starts.
- COL are 2-1 to the over in Ryan Feltner's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ARI
- ARI are 6-3 vs COL this season (9 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 2-3 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-2 in Merrill Kelly's last 5 home starts.
- ARI average 5.0 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 5.4 runs/game in Merrill Kelly's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ARI are 1-4 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 1-2 to the over in Merrill Kelly's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 4
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: BB% 13% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- COL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Merrill Kelly: 2026-08-02: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
HOU @
SFG✓3:45 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
HOU @
SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryan King
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
SFG
No data
Adrian Houser R
xERA3.41 (good)ERA1.80K%16.7 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%39.4 (avg)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs10.0 IP (3gs)H/gs?PC/gs40BB%4.8
HOU vs RHP
wRC+132 (elite)K%18.9 (above avg)HH%41.1 (above avg)Whiff%24.3
Bullpens · Last 12
HOU
xERA 2.31 (elite)ERA 1.772d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 4.25 (avg)ERA 4.052d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalHOU+127+1.5 (-195)O6.5 (-108)SFG-140-1.5 (+188)U6.5 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalHOU-132-0.5 (+106)O4.5 (-118)SFG+106+0.5 (-138)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UHOU4.5 (-104/-120)2.5 (+124/-160)SFG3.5 (-115/-110)1.5 (-140/+110)
Adrian Houser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W3.03241000
W3.03241000Aug 7vs
W5.0*8646111
W5.0*8646111Aug 4@
L0.1*200000
L0.1*200000Jul 31@
L4.2*6435111
L4.2*6435111Jul 26vs
L4.0*5322100
L4.0*5322100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Adrian Houser
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU3.00.004.01.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W3.03241000
W3.03241000home starts3.00.004.01.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
W3.03241000
W3.03241000Trends · HOU
- HOU are 1-1 vs SFG this season (2 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- HOU are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 1-1 vs HOU this season (2 games).
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 3-2 in Adrian Houser's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Adrian Houser's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 6.4 runs/game in Adrian Houser's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 4.4 runs/game in Adrian Houser's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
67°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- HOU — Bryan King: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SFG — Adrian Houser: 57 days since last start (2026-06-16) — may not be fully stretched out
- SFG — Adrian Houser: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-07, 2026-08-04 — may affect pitch count or availability
- SFG — Adrian Houser: last start: 29 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
HOU Team Total o4.5 (-115)
Houston's bats have been elite against right-handers over the last 12 at a 137 wRC+ with a 19.7% strikeout rate, and Adrian Houser takes the mound having thrown just 29 pitches in his last outing 57 days ago — a starter unlikely to be stretched past a few innings. That funnels this game into a San Francisco bullpen carrying a 4.48 xERA over its last 12. An elite offense against a short-leashed starter and a leaky pen makes the over on this team total the play.
MIL @
SDP4:10 PM · Petco ParkNeutral Conditions
MIL @
SDPMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Dustin May R
xERA4.60 (below avg)ERA1.59K%23.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%47.7 (poor)Barrel%11.4 (below avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs63BB%8.8
SDP vs RHP
wRC+121 (above avg)K%19.1 (above avg)HH%37.7 (avg)Whiff%21.2
Robbie Ray L
xERA3.85 (avg)ERA2.65K%18.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%34.0 (good)Barrel%6.0 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs70BB%11.1
MIL vs LHP
wRC+97 (avg)K%38.8 (poor)HH%35.7 (avg)Whiff%33.8
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 1.91 (elite)ERA 1.742d stress Fresh (1.7 IP/1g)
SDP
xERA 2.34 (elite)ERA 3.162d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL-175-1.5 (+102)O7.5 (+110)SDP+160+1.5 (-125)U6.5 (+116)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL-125-0.5 (+108)O4.5 (-108)SDP+102+0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-120)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL4.5 (+110/+116)1.5 (-154/+120)SDP3.5 (-115/-105)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDustin May4.5 (-118 / +102)17.5 (-129 / -102)Robbie Ray5.5 (+125 / +112)15.5 (-114 / -104)
Dustin May · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
W2.02112000
W2.02112000Aug 6vs
W6.09753322
W6.09753322Jul 29vs
W5.07031200
W5.07031200Jul 24vs
L6.08987111
L6.08987111Jul 18@
L5.09868455
L5.09868455Robbie Ray · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
L2.03211011
L2.03211011Aug 7vs
L5.09227544
L5.09227544Jul 30@
W6.08664111
W6.08664111Jul 25vs
W6.08056200
W6.08056200Jul 19@
L4.08668213
L4.08668213SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Dustin May
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP5.71.065.72.01.0(3)
at SDP4.34.853.03.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12@
W2.02112000
W2.02112000Jun 15vs
W9.010191100
W9.010191100May 9@
L6.09773223
L6.09773223Jun 9@
W5.08916456
W5.08916456Robbie Ray
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL4.04.501.74.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
L2.03211011
L2.03211011Aug 24@
W5.08006433
W5.08006433Apr 21vs
W5.09245322
W5.09245322home starts4.33.462.74.72.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 12vs
L2.03211011
L2.03211011Aug 7vs
L5.09227544
L5.09227544Jul 25vs
W6.08056200
W6.08056200Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-3 vs SDP this season (5 games).
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-0 in Dustin May's last 3 starts.
- MIL are 1-0 in Dustin May's last 1 away starts.
- MIL average 3.7 runs/game in Dustin May's last 3 starts.
- MIL average 4.0 runs/game in Dustin May's last 1 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · SDP
- SDP are 3-2 vs MIL this season (5 games).
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
- SDP have won 4 straight.
- SDP are 0-2 in Robbie Ray's last 2 starts.
- SDP are 0-2 in Robbie Ray's last 2 home starts.
- SDP average 2.0 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 2 starts.
- SDP average 2.0 runs/game in Robbie Ray's last 2 home starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SDP are 1-1 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 2 starts.
- SDP are 1-1 to the over in Robbie Ray's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
81°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph W
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 5
- MIL — Dustin May: HH% 48% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- MIL bullpen fresh (1.7 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- MIL — Dustin May: recent opponents high-K: CIN 29%, PIT 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- SDP — Robbie Ray: 2026-08-07: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SDP — Robbie Ray: recent opponents low-K: SDP 17%, HOU 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
CLE @
DET✓6:40 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
CLE @
DET✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Foster Griffin L
xERA4.87 (below avg)ERA7.88K%15.3 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%40.0 (avg)Barrel%7.3 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.3PC/gs91BB%6.9
DET vs LHP
wRC+159 (elite)K%18.1 (above avg)HH%32.6 (below avg)Whiff%17.7
Framber Valdez L
xERA3.86 (avg)ERA1.89K%19.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%51.8 (poor)Barrel%3.6 (elite)IP/gs6.3 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs96BB%8.9
CLE vs LHP
wRC+103 (avg)K%22.9 (avg)HH%44.2 (above avg)Whiff%23.0
Bullpens · Last 12
CLE
xERA 4.48 (avg)ERA 5.83
DET
xERA 3.32 (good)ERA 3.16
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCLE+120+1.5 (-190)O8.0 (-112)DET-123-1.5 (+163)U8.0 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCLE+104+0.5 (-140)O4.5 (-106)DET-125-0.5 (+108)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCLE3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-145/+114)DET4.5 (+122/-154)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UFoster Griffin5.5 (+124 / -148)17.5 (-146 / +112)Framber Valdez4.5 (+101 / -128)17.5 (-138 / +124)
Foster Griffin · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs
L4.08867255
L4.08867255Jul 31@
L5.17839266
L5.17839266Jul 25vs
W6.210826133
W6.210826133Jul 19@
W7.09728111
W7.09728111Jul 8vs
W7.09995011
W7.09995011Framber Valdez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6@
W7.09555200
W7.09555200Aug 1@
W7.09669222
W7.09669222Jul 26vs
L5.09744323
L5.09744323Jul 21@
L0.24215266
L0.24215266Jul 9vs
W7.08793011
W7.08793011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Framber Valdez
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.07.203.05.04.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 18vs
L5.08935444
L5.08935444home starts6.03.505.05.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs
L5.09744323
L5.09744323Jul 9vs
W7.08793011
W7.08793011Jun 27vs
L6.08829044
L6.08829044Trends · CLE
- CLE are 6-2 vs DET this season (8 games).
- CLE are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- CLE are 0-1 in Foster Griffin's last 1 starts.
- CLE average 6.0 runs/game in Foster Griffin's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · DET
- DET are 2-6 vs CLE this season (8 games).
- DET are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 3-2 in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 2-3 in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
- DET average 5.8 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET average 4.6 runs/game in Framber Valdez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 3-2 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 5 starts.
- DET are 0-2 to the over in Framber Valdez's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
82°F, Clear, Wind 12 mph WSW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 1
- DET — Framber Valdez: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
DET Team Total o3.5 (-142)
Detroit's lineup has been elite against left-handers over its last 12 at a 152 wRC+ with a low 18.9% strikeout rate, and it faces Foster Griffin, a lefty with a 4.87 xERA and 7.88 ERA over his last 3 who was rocked for 5 earned in 4 innings his last time out. The Tigers have averaged 5.8 runs over their last 10. Against a lefty this hittable, crossing four runs is more likely than the number implies.
PIT @
MIA6:40 PM · loanDepot park (Roof Closed)
PIT @
MIAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
C. Mlodzinski R
xERA4.72 (below avg)ERA5.00K%16.2 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%51.7 (poor)Barrel%13.8 (below avg)IP/gs9.0 IP/gsH/gs10.0PC/gs47BB%5.4
MIA vs RHP
wRC+102 (avg)K%21.4 (avg)HH%37.1 (avg)Whiff%24.0
Janson Junk R
xERA3.71 (good)ERA2.13K%20.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%41.5 (below avg)Barrel%9.8 (avg)IP/gs4.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs67BB%5.5
PIT vs RHP
wRC+90 (below avg)K%25.2 (below avg)HH%36.2 (avg)Whiff%26.2
Bullpens · Last 12
PIT
xERA 2.38 (elite)ERA 2.60
MIA
xERA 2.94 (elite)ERA 2.63
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalPIT+106-1.5 (+165)O8.0 (-115)MIA-114-1.5 (+168)U8.0 (-103)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalPIT-110+0.5 (-160)O4.5 (-106)MIA-114-0.5 (+122)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UPIT3.5 (-140/+110)1.5 (-166/+130)MIA3.5 (-140/+114)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UC. Mlodzinski3.5 (-103 / -113)12.5 (+114 / -151)Janson Junk4.5 (+126 / -153)15.5 (+121 / +144)
C. Mlodzinski · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7vs
L3.06317155
L3.06317155Aug 1@
W3.0*4741100
W3.0*4741100Jul 29vs
L3.0*3012000
L3.0*3012000Jul 26vs
W2.0*3323011
W2.0*3323011Jul 22@
W2.2*5033233
W2.2*5033233Janson Junk · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6@
L3.04715122
L3.04715122Jul 31@
W5.07943201
W5.07943201Jul 26vs
L4.27567011
L4.27567011Jul 20@
L4.08035366
L4.08035366Jul 9vs
W5.07953412
W5.07953412SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Janson Junk
IPERAKHBB
vs PIT—
home starts4.76.344.76.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs
L4.27567011
L4.27567011Jul 9vs
W5.07953412
W5.07953412May 20vs
L5.08638088
L5.08638088Trends · PIT
- PIT are 1-3 vs MIA this season (4 games).
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- PIT are 3-2 in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-3 in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 away starts.
- PIT average 6.4 runs/game in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 2.4 runs/game in C. Mlodzinski's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · MIA
- MIA are 3-1 vs PIT this season (4 games).
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 2-3 in Janson Junk's last 5 home starts.
- MIA average 4.8 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.0 runs/game in Janson Junk's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIA are 3-1 to the over in Janson Junk's last 4 starts.
- MIA are 1-1 to the over in Janson Junk's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 6
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: HH% 52% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-01, 2026-07-29 — may affect pitch count or availability
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: last start: 63 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- PIT — C. Mlodzinski: 2026-08-07: 5 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 15) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIA — Janson Junk: last start: 47 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Both starters are working off tiny or blowup-skewed recent samples and both bullpens are strong, leaving too much uncertainty to price any market.
CHC @
WSN6:45 PM · Nationals ParkHitter Friendly
CHC @
WSNMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
David Peterson L
xERA3.36 (good)ERA2.12K%20.0 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.4 (good)Barrel%7.8 (good)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs91BB%7.1
WSN vs LHP
wRC+87 (below avg)K%23.2 (avg)HH%31.1 (below avg)Whiff%27.0
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
CHC
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
CHC
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 2.81
WSN
xERA 4.42 (avg)ERA 2.27
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHC-156-1.5 (-103)O9.5 (-110)WSN+147+1.5 (-114)U9.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHC-145-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (-144)WSN+124+0.5 (-114)U4.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHC5.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (-115/-115)WSN4.5 (+120/+112)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDavid Peterson4.5 (+114 / -138)16.5 (-115 / +100)TBD——
David Peterson · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs
W5.08937311
W5.08937311Aug 1vs
W6.19785012
W6.19785012Jul 27@
W5.28633222
W5.28633222Jul 21vs
W6.29443100
W6.29443100Jul 9@
L5.07722411
L5.07722411SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
David Peterson
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN5.45.006.04.32.3(3)
at WSN6.51.386.54.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 21@
W5.08234311
W5.08234311Apr 29vs
L3.28055377
L3.28055377Aug 19@
W8.096104111
W8.096104111Trends · CHC
- CHC are 2-2 vs WSN this season (4 games).
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 4-1 in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 2-1 in David Peterson's last 3 away starts.
- CHC average 5.6 runs/game in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC average 5.7 runs/game in David Peterson's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CHC are 4-1 to the over in David Peterson's last 5 starts.
- CHC are 1-1 to the over in David Peterson's last 2 away starts.
Trends · WSN
- WSN are 2-2 vs CHC this season (4 games).
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
Over / Under
- WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
89°F, Overcast, Wind 5 mph SSE
APF 105 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 1
- WSN — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
AI Analysis
Washington's starter has no track record this season, leaving the run environment and Chicago's side impossible to price with any confidence.
SEA @
NYY✓7:05 PM · Yankee StadiumHitter Friendly
SEA @
NYY✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Bryce Miller R
xERA3.45 (good)ERA6.32K%12.3 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%34.6 (good)Barrel%5.8 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs90BB%7.7
NYY vs RHP
wRC+76 (poor)K%26.5 (below avg)HH%46.6 (elite)Whiff%24.5
Will Warren R
xERA4.24 (avg)ERA5.40K%27.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%58.1 (poor)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs82BB%4.8
SEA vs RHP
wRC+80 (below avg)K%23.2 (avg)HH%39.9 (avg)Whiff%23.5
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.18 (avg)ERA 6.94
NYY
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 4.32
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+116+1.5 (-185)O8.5 (-120)NYY-124-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+110+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-118)NYY-128-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA4.5 (+114/+118)1.5 (-145/+114)NYY4.5 (+108/-125)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBryce Miller5.5 (-110 / -115)16.5 (-106 / -116)Will Warren4.5 (-130 / +120)16.5 (-102 / -110)
Bryce Miller · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs
L5.09355244
L5.09355244Jul 31vs
L5.18733222
L5.18733222Jul 24@
L5.18906155
L5.18906155Jul 17vs
L5.29167123
L5.29167123Jul 9@
L5.08139446
L5.08139446Will Warren · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs
L5.19157133
L5.19157133Jul 31@
W6.28874000
W6.28874000Jul 26@
L3.06856266
L3.06856266Jul 22vs
W0.2*1611100
W0.2*1611100Jul 12@
W5.08324211
W5.08324211SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Will Warren
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA5.11.766.54.01.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 8vs
W5.28544200
W5.28544200May 14@
W5.09294122
W5.09294122home starts5.14.416.06.00.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs
L5.19157133
L5.19157133Jul 1vs
L5.17975022
L5.17975022Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-3 vs NYY this season (4 games).
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA have lost 5 straight.
- SEA are 0-5 in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-3 in Bryce Miller's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 2.2 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 4.6 runs/game in Bryce Miller's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-1 to the over in Bryce Miller's last 4 starts.
- SEA are 2-0 to the over in Bryce Miller's last 2 away starts.
Trends · NYY
- NYY are 3-1 vs SEA this season (4 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 1-4 in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
- NYY average 3.2 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 2.2 runs/game in Will Warren's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYY are 2-3 to the over in Will Warren's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 0-2 to the over in Will Warren's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 1 mph SW
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- NYY — Will Warren: HH% 58% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- SEA — Bryce Miller: recent opponents low-K: MIN 18%, DET 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- NYY — Will Warren: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- NYY — Will Warren: 2026-07-26: 6 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
SEA @ NYY u8.5 (+100)
Seattle sits at 79 wRC+ and the Yankees at 70 wRC+ against right-handers over their last 12 — two struggling lineups. Bryce Miller carries a 3.45 xERA over his last 3 despite a shiny surface ERA, and Will Warren owns a 1.76 ERA with 6.5 K per start across two meetings with the Mariners. Two weak offenses under a number this size, at even money, is value on the under.
Will Warren o4.5 Ks (-130)
Warren has a 27.0 K% over his last 3 with totals of 5, 7, and 5, and he has owned Seattle across two prior meetings at 6.5 K/gs (9 and 4). The Mariners strike out at 23.2% vs RHP over their last 12, and his 16.5 outs line gives him the length to clear this. Even in his shortest recent start he racked up 5 in 3 innings, so 4.5 at -130 is priced short of what his bat-missing profile against this opponent supports.
BOS @
TOR✓7:07 PM · Rogers Centre (Roof Closed)
BOS @
TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Ranger Suarez L
xERA5.46 (poor)ERA4.63K%22.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%56.2 (poor)Barrel%3.1 (elite)IP/gs3.9 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs66BB%8.3
TOR vs LHP
wRC+57 (poor)K%22.8 (avg)HH%19.5 (poor)Whiff%23.9
Jose Soriano R
xERA3.90 (avg)ERA1.62K%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%51.2 (poor)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs91BB%10.8
BOS vs RHP
wRC+144 (elite)K%17.1 (above avg)HH%34.1 (below avg)Whiff%22.6
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 2.14 (elite)ERA 2.232d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.08 (good)ERA 2.562d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-126-1.5 (+132)O7.0 (-120)TOR+120+1.5 (-156)U7.0 (+102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-120-0.5 (+108)O3.5 (-144)TOR+106+0.5 (-140)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS3.5 (-128/+100)1.5 (-130/+100)TOR3.5 (+118/-140)1.5 (-130/+100)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URanger Suarez4.5 (+115 / -134)15.5 (+115 / -143)Jose Soriano5.5 (+124 / -157)16.5 (-118 / +100)
Ranger Suarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6vs
W3.07033234
W3.07033234Jul 31@
W4.26524233
W4.26524233Jul 26vs
W4.06464000
W4.06464000Jul 5@
W2.25356033
W2.25356033Jun 29vs
W6.09585133
W6.09585133Jose Soriano · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7@
W4.29434312
W4.29434312Jul 26@
W5.08553301
W5.08553301Jul 20vs
W7.09574122
W7.09574122Jul 12@
L5.07705233
L5.07705233Jul 7@
L6.09342222
L6.09342222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Ranger Suarez
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR6.30.007.33.30.7(3)
at TOR8.00.0010.01.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 26vs
W4.06464000
W4.06464000Apr 27@
W8.0105101100
W8.0105101100Jun 13vs
W7.09465100
W7.09465100Jose Soriano
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS3.219.693.08.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 4@
L3.29938377
L3.29938377home starts5.04.205.34.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 20vs
W7.09574122
W7.09574122Jun 24vs
W3.06946255
W3.06946255Jun 13vs
W5.07653200
W5.07653200Trends · BOS
- BOS are 3-8 vs TOR this season (11 games).
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS have lost 4 straight.
- BOS are 5-0 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 8.0 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 5.8 runs/game in Ranger Suarez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 3-1 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 4 starts.
- BOS are 2-0 to the over in Ranger Suarez's last 2 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 8-3 vs BOS this season (11 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 1-2 in Jose Soriano's last 3 starts.
- TOR are 0-1 in Jose Soriano's last 1 home starts.
- TOR average 3.0 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 3 starts.
- TOR average 1.0 runs/game in Jose Soriano's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 8
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: HH% 56% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: avg 3.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- TOR — Jose Soriano: HH% 51% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- BOS bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- TOR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- BOS — Ranger Suarez: 2026-08-06: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TOR — Jose Soriano: recent opponents low-K: SFG 18%, PHI 15% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
BOS ML (-125)
Boston's offense has been elite against right-handers over its last 12 at a 144 wRC+ with a low 16.9% strikeout rate, facing a Jose Soriano who was tagged for 7 earned in 3.2 innings the last time these clubs met. Ranger Suarez has thrown three straight scoreless starts against Toronto (6.3 IP, 7.3 K per start), and the Jays have hit just 43 wRC+ against lefties over their last 12. With Boston's bullpen humming at a 1.74 xERA over its last 12 and the club 5-0 in its starter's last five, -125 undervalues the two-sided edge.
TOR Team Total u3.5 (-135)
Toronto has been dreadful against left-handed pitching over its last 12 at a 43 wRC+ with a 24.1% strikeout rate, and Ranger Suarez has held them scoreless across three consecutive meetings while averaging 6.3 innings. Boston's bullpen at a 1.74 xERA over its last 12 offers no relief for the Jays late. The market is not fully accounting for how badly this lineup has matched up with this arm.
NYM @
ATL✓7:15 PM · Truist ParkHot
NYM @
ATL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Zac Thornton L
xERA4.58 (below avg)ERA3.38K%15.2 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below avg)Barrel%4.1 (elite)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs79BB%9.1
ATL vs LHP
wRC+169 (elite)K%14.4 (elite)HH%43.8 (above avg)Whiff%19.4
Tyler Mahle R
xERA2.67 (elite)ERA2.55K%30.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%42.5 (below avg)Barrel%5.0 (elite)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs93BB%8.8
NYM vs RHP
wRC+105 (avg)K%23.3 (avg)HH%42.5 (above avg)Whiff%22.8
Bullpens · Last 12
NYM
xERA 3.55 (good)ERA 2.932d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.35 (good)ERA 3.432d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYM+158+1.5 (-134)O8.5 (-115)ATL-170-1.5 (+120)U8.5 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYM+136+0.5 (-106)O4.5 (-118)ATL-166-0.5 (-122)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYM3.5 (-113/-105)1.5 (-140/+110)ATL4.5 (-113/-105)2.5 (-115/-115)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UZac Thornton3.5 (-108 / +102)15.5 (+145 / -163)Tyler Mahle5.5 (+130 / +120)16.5 (+100 / +102)
Zac Thornton · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7@
W5.06334200
W5.06334200Aug 1vs
L4.29426334
L4.29426334Jul 27vs
W6.18156133
W6.18156133Jul 21@
W6.08123100
W6.08123100Jul 12vs
L7.08252200
L7.08252200Tyler Mahle · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7@
L6.09293200
L6.09293200Aug 1@
L5.29995255
L5.29995255Jul 27vs
W6.08833200
W6.08833200Jul 21@
L5.09145133
L5.09145133Jul 11vs
W7.010445311
W7.010445311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Zac Thornton
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL6.14.435.06.01.0(1)
at ATL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs
W6.18156133
W6.18156133Tyler Mahle
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM5.09.004.08.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 3vs
L5.09148255
L5.09148255home starts6.10.493.73.32.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs
W6.08833200
W6.08833200Jul 11vs
W7.010445311
W7.010445311Jun 24vs
W5.27042200
W5.27042200Trends · NYM
- NYM are 7-6 vs ATL this season (13 games).
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 7-3 in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 3-2 in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 2-1 in Zac Thornton's last 3 away starts.
- NYM average 5.6 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM average 4.7 runs/game in Zac Thornton's last 3 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYM are 2-3 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 5 starts.
- NYM are 1-1 to the over in Zac Thornton's last 2 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 6-7 vs NYM this season (13 games).
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 0-1 in Tyler Mahle's last 1 starts.
- ATL average 2.0 runs/game in Tyler Mahle's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hot
90°F, Clear, Wind 9 mph W
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 5
- NYM bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM — Zac Thornton: last start: 63 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- NYM — Zac Thornton: recent opponents low-K: ATL 14%, MIA 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- ATL — Tyler Mahle: 2026-08-01: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
ATL -1.5 (+135)
Atlanta's lineup has been elite against left-handers over the last 12 games at a 154 wRC+ with just a 17.2% strikeout rate, and it faces Zac Thornton, a lefty with a 4.58 xERA, a 42.9% hard-hit rate, and a 63-pitch hook last time out. On the other side Tyler Mahle carries a 2.67 xERA over his last 3 and a 0.49 ERA across his last 3 home starts to smother a Mets attack sitting at 106 wRC+. Atlanta is 9-1 at home over its last 10; at plus money the runline pays for a comfortable win the market is only pricing as a coin-flip margin.
Tyler Mahle o5.5 Ks (+130)
Mahle has struck out 9 in each of his last two starts and carries a 30.9% K rate over his last 3, with a 16.5-out line giving him room at his 5.9 IP recent workload. The Mets whiff at a 23.5% rate against righties over their last 12, a group that supports the miss. A 30%-K arm in this kind of form at plus money on a 5.5 line is value the market has not caught up to.
ATL Team Total o4.5 (-113)
Atlanta's lineup is scorching against left-handed pitching at 169 wRC+ over its last 12 with a tiny 14.4 K% and 43.8 HH%, and it draws a below-average lefty in Zac Thornton whose 4.58 xERA over his last 3 tops his 3.38 ERA, meaning his run prevention has been running ahead of the contact he allows. Thornton's last outing lasted just 63 pitches and his recent low-strikeout foes (ATL 14%, MIA 18%) flatter his line against a lineup this dangerous. At -113 the market is treating this as a coin flip on the number, but an elite platoon offense facing a regressing lefty who gets left in should clear 4.5 comfortably.
CIN @
CHW✓7:40 PM · Rate FieldNeutral Conditions
CIN @
CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Rhett Lowder R
xERA3.56 (good)ERA3.18K%18.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.2 (good)Barrel%10.4 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs87BB%6.2
CHW vs RHP
wRC+81 (below avg)K%27.6 (below avg)HH%36.7 (avg)Whiff%27.5
Luis Castillo R
xERA5.94 (poor)ERA7.31K%14.1 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%30.4 (good)Barrel%10.7 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs87BB%7.0
CIN vs RHP
wRC+112 (avg)K%29.4 (poor)HH%41.5 (above avg)Whiff%27.1
Bullpens · Last 12
CIN
xERA 2.34 (elite)ERA 3.77
CHW
xERA 3.35 (good)ERA 2.37
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCIN+132+1.5 (-164)O8.5 (-115)CHW-137-1.5 (+139)U8.5 (+101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCIN+120+0.5 (-120)O4.5 (-130)CHW-140-0.5 (-108)U4.5 (+100)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCIN3.5 (-128/+114)1.5 (-166/+130)CHW4.5 (-102/-115)2.5 (+100/-130)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URhett Lowder4.5 (+132 / -142)15.5 (+100 / -124)Luis Castillo5.5 (-110 / -113)15.5 (-115 / -108)
Rhett Lowder · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5vs
W6.09534222
W6.09534222Jul 30vs
W6.09055022
W6.09055022Jul 24@
W5.07641222
W5.07641222Jul 18@
L2.148211088
L2.148211088Jul 12vs
L2.0*3010200
L2.0*3010200Luis Castillo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 6@
L4.07156155
L4.07156155Jul 28@
W5.090211255
W5.090211255Jul 21vs
L7.010134233
L7.010134233Jul 10@
L5.09149144
L5.09149144Jul 3vs
L6.010145122
L6.010145122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Luis Castillo
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN5.57.303.05.53.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs
L7.010134233
L7.010134233Apr 15@
L4.19537466
L4.19537466home starts6.53.463.54.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs
L7.010134233
L7.010134233Jul 3vs
L6.010145122
L6.010145122Trends · CIN
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 3-2 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
- CIN average 3.0 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 2.4 runs/game in Rhett Lowder's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- CIN are 1-4 to the over in Rhett Lowder's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 0-2 to the over in Rhett Lowder's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 1-1 in Luis Castillo's last 2 starts.
- CHW are 1-0 in Luis Castillo's last 1 home starts.
- CHW average 8.5 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 2 starts.
- CHW average 6.0 runs/game in Luis Castillo's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Overcast, Wind 7 mph E
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- CIN — Rhett Lowder: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-12, 2026-07-08 — may affect pitch count or availability
- CHW — Luis Castillo: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
CIN F5 ML (+120)
Cincinnati has hit 121 wRC+ against righties over its last 12 and draws Luis Castillo, who carries a 5.94 xERA and 7.31 ERA over his last 3, a 14.1% K rate, and a 7.30 ERA across two meetings with the Reds this year. Rhett Lowder counters with a 3.56 xERA over his last 3 against a White Sox lineup at just 86 wRC+ versus righties. Chicago is the favorite despite owning the worse pitcher and the worse bat matchup, so the road dog getting plus money through the first five is the value.
KCR @
LAD10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
KCR @
LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Daniel Lynch IV
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
LAD
No data
Eric Lauer L
xERA4.45 (avg)ERA5.28K%15.6 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%35.3 (avg)Barrel%13.7 (below avg)IP/gs5.1 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs91BB%3.1
KCR vs LHP
wRC+83 (below avg)K%24.2 (below avg)HH%32.0 (below avg)Whiff%23.6
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.75 (below avg)ERA 6.522d stress Fresh (2.3 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 3.30 (good)ERA 4.312d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR+191+1.5 (-115)O9.0 (-105)LAD-205-1.5 (-102)U9.0 (-108)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR+152+0.5 (+104)O5.5 (+110)LAD-192-0.5 (-135)U5.5 (-144)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR3.5 (-115/-110)1.5 (-160/+124)LAD5.5 (+110/+114)2.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UDaniel Lynch IV——Eric Lauer4.5 (+131 / +120)17.5 (-138 / +110)
Eric Lauer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 5@
L4.095111066
L4.095111066Jul 29vs
W6.08741100
W6.08741100Jul 22@
W5.19154133
W5.19154133Jul 6vs
W6.09936233
W6.09936233Jun 29@
W6.09529133
W6.09529133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Eric Lauer
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR—
home starts6.03.003.74.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29vs
W6.08741100
W6.08741100Jul 6vs
W6.09936233
W6.09936233Jun 15vs
W6.09346333
W6.09346333Trends · KCR
- KCR are 0-2 vs LAD this season (2 games).
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-0 vs KCR this season (2 games).
- LAD are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 4-1 in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 4-0 in Eric Lauer's last 4 home starts.
- LAD average 7.2 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 7.8 runs/game in Eric Lauer's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 4-1 to the over in Eric Lauer's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-1 to the over in Eric Lauer's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
71°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph WSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- KCR — Daniel Lynch IV: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- LAD — Eric Lauer: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR bullpen fresh (2.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- LAD bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAD — Eric Lauer: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-06-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- LAD — Eric Lauer: 2026-08-05: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Kansas City throws an unknown first-time starter and Los Angeles is priced past the point of value at -205, so there is no clean angle.
TEX @
LAA✓10:10 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
TEX @
LAA✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 12
Cal Quantrill R
xERA2.36 (elite)ERA1.46K%23.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%3.0 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs3.0PC/gs55BB%4.3
LAA vs RHP
wRC+55 (poor)K%29.2 (poor)HH%35.5 (avg)Whiff%27.1
George Klassen R
xERA6.82 (poor)ERA8.31K%17.3 (avg)
More Stats
HH%31.0 (good)Barrel%13.8 (below avg)IP/gs2.9 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs76BB%26.9
TEX vs RHP
wRC+70 (poor)K%24.6 (below avg)HH%35.0 (avg)Whiff%23.0
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 3.992d stress Elevated (4.7 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 4.562d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-132-1.5 (+122)O9.0 (+101)LAA+125+1.5 (-138)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-128-0.5 (+108)O5.5 (+112)LAA+102+0.5 (-140)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTEX4.5 (-115/-105)2.5 (+100/-130)LAA3.5 (-130/+105)2.5 (+120/-154)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UCal Quantrill3.5 (-102 / -119)13.5 (-129 / -102)George Klassen4.5 (-109 / -113)14.5 (-146 / +114)
Cal Quantrill · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs
W1.0*1000000
W1.0*1000000Aug 3vs
L6.08744113
L6.08744113Jul 28@
W5.16972111
W5.16972111Jul 22vs
L3.0*5512322
L3.0*5512322Jul 17@
L4.086311166
L4.086311166George Klassen · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 7@
W4.08334411
W4.08334411Apr 11@
L2.07224545
L2.07224545Apr 5vs
W2.27343522
W2.27343522SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Cal Quantrill
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA3.12.902.03.00.0(1)
at LAA3.12.902.03.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 24@
W3.14623011
W3.14623011George Klassen
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX—
home starts2.28.184.03.05.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 5vs
W2.27343522
W2.27343522Trends · TEX
- TEX are 3-5 vs LAA this season (8 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-2 in Cal Quantrill's last 4 away starts.
- TEX average 2.6 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 4.0 runs/game in Cal Quantrill's last 4 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 1-1 to the over in Cal Quantrill's last 2 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 5-3 vs TEX this season (8 games).
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 2-1 in George Klassen's last 3 starts.
- LAA are 1-0 in George Klassen's last 1 home starts.
- LAA average 5.0 runs/game in George Klassen's last 3 starts.
- LAA average 8.0 runs/game in George Klassen's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
73°F, Overcast, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 9
- LAA — George Klassen: small sample (8.2 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- LAA — George Klassen: Barrel% 14% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- LAA — George Klassen: BB% 27% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- LAA — George Klassen: avg 2.9 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- TEX bullpen elevated (4.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- LAA bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-08-08, 2026-07-22 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: 2026-07-17: 6 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 14) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TEX — Cal Quantrill: recent opponents low-K: TBR 18%, SFG 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
TEX @ LAA u9.0 (-106)
Both lineups are cold — Texas at 68 wRC+ and the Angels at 58 wRC+ against righties over their last 12 — and Cal Quantrill brings a 2.36 xERA over his last 3 to shut down the worst of the two. George Klassen is wild but works so short (2.9 IP over his last 3) that the Angels' offense is the limiting factor on total scoring. Two of the weakest bats on the board sitting under a number near 9 is a total set too high.
George Klassen u14.5 Outs (-146)
Klassen has averaged just 2.9 IP/gs over his last 3 with a 26.9 BB% and has not thrown five innings in any of them (2.2, 2.0, 4.0 IP). The 14.5 outs line asks for nearly five full frames, something his command collapse simply hasn't allowed, so the under is the right side even at -146.