AI Picks · 7 Bets · Aug 14
CHC Team Total o4.5 (+100)
The Cubs are crushing left-handed pitching at a 160 wRC+ over their last 6 and 162 over their last 12 — elite and fully established. Liberatore is a modest lefty (3.13 xERA but only 4.9 IP/gs over his last 3) whom Chicago squared up for 8 hits and 3 runs in 3.2 innings his last time facing them. His short outings hand the game to a St. Louis bullpen carrying a 4.70 xERA over its last 12. Even money on the league's hottest lineup against a hittable lefty and a soft bullpen is the price to take.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
Sandy Alcantara o5.5 Ks (-106)
Cincinnati is striking out at a 32.9% clip against right-handed pitching over its last 6 while scuffling to a 77 wRC+, exactly the whiff-prone profile a strikeout over feeds on. Alcantara has a 23.7 K% over his last 3 with 5, 5, and 8 punchouts, and he goes deep — 6.7 IP/gs — with the outs line set at 18.5, giving him the length to clear the number. A high-K opponent plus a durable arm makes 5.5 too low at even money.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
PIT Team Total u3.5 (-125)
Pittsburgh cannot hit left-handed pitching, sitting at a 59 wRC+ over its last 6 and 61 over its last 12 vs LHP — an established, not streaky, weakness, with a 30.9 K% over that span. Bennett carries a 2.62 xERA over his last 3 that his 5.19 ERA badly understates, meaning the market is pricing a pitcher who has actually been much better. Behind him Boston's bullpen owns a 2.34 xERA over its last 12. A punchless lineup against a quietly excellent starter and an elite bullpen should struggle to reach four runs.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
TBR Team Total o4.5 (+105)
Tampa Bay has been mashing right-handed pitching, at a 161 wRC+ over its last 6 and 144 over its last 12 — both elite and pointing the same way. Bassitt is a contact-oriented arm (11.9 K% over his last 3, 10.4 Barrel%) who hasn't started in 72 days and threw only 56 pitches his last time out, so he isn't stretched and figures for a short leash, and TBR has scored 5 and 3 earned in his last two meetings against them. Once he exits, Baltimore's bullpen sits at a 5.90 ERA over its last 12. Getting plus money on a top-form lineup against a rusty pitcher and a leaking bullpen is the value.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
Gerrit Cole o5.5 Ks (+126)
Cole has a 28.4% strikeout rate over his last 3 with punchout totals of 7, 5, and 9, and his 18.5-out line gives him the length to pile them up. Toronto's 19.8% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6 is ordinary, not a contact wall, so nothing about this matchup suppresses his rate. Getting plus money on a total his recent form clears in two of three outings is a mispriced number on an ace working deep.
Found at 10:48 AM ET
George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+126)
Kirby's bat-missing has vanished — a 12.1% strikeout rate over his last 3 with just 3, 3, and 2 punchouts in those starts. Houston makes solid contact at a 20.0% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6, offering no help getting there. Reaching five would mean nearly doubling his recent per-start output, and plus money on the under is a gift given how few whiffs he is generating right now.
Found at 10:48 AM ET
SFG Team Total u3.5 (+105)
San Francisco has been historically helpless against left-handed pitching, posting a -28 wRC+ over its last 6 and just 16 over its last 12 vs LHP with a 36.2 K% — both windows catastrophic. Freeland brings a 3.15 xERA over his last 3 into a pitcher-friendly park. Getting plus money on the under for a lineup that essentially cannot score against lefties, facing a solid one, is a clear mispricing.
Found at 4:47 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
STL @ 
CHC✓2:20 PM · Wrigley FieldNeutral Conditions
STL @ CHC✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
M. Liberatore L
xERA3.13 (good)ERA4.91K%23.8 (good)
More Stats
HH%35.7 (avg)Barrel%7.1 (good)IP/gs4.9 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs82BB%7.9
CHC vs LHP · last 6
wRC+151 (elite)12+162K%27.8 (below avg)HH%36.8 (avg)Whiff%21.4
Clay Holmes R
xERA4.41 (avg)ERA6.43K%23.1 (good)
More Stats
HH%48.8 (poor)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs4.7 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs89BB%9.2
STL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+105 (avg)12+107K%18.5 (above avg)HH%37.0 (avg)Whiff%20.1
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 4.70 (below avg)ERA 4.022d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CHC
xERA 3.58 (good)ERA 3.292d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL+167+1.5 (-135)O8.0 (-104)CHC-172-1.5 (+118)U8.0 (-115)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL+150+0.5 (-110)O4.5 (+100)CHC-168-0.5 (-118)U4.5 (-130)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL3.5 (+105/-132)1.5 (-110/-120)CHC4.5 (+106/-125)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UM. Liberatore4.5 (+113 / -128)15.5 (+136 / -159)Clay Holmes3.5 (-132 / +114)15.5 (+103 / -137)
M. Liberatore · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs 
L5.09439255
L5.09439255Aug 2@ 
W6.08571100
W6.08571100Jul 27vs L3.26758233
L3.26758233Jul 21@ 
L5.19579255
L5.19579255Jul 11vs 
W6.07164100
W6.07164100Clay Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ 
L4.07016244
L4.07016244May 15vs 
L4.19587244
L4.19587244May 9@ 
L5.210365222
L5.210365222May 3@ W6.29964311
W6.29964311Apr 28vs 
W6.09463100
W6.09463100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
M. Liberatore
IPERAKHBB
vs CHC4.44.064.05.01.7(3)
at CHC5.04.503.54.03.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 27vs L3.26758233
L3.26758233Jul 5@ L5.07834234
L5.07834234May 31vs W5.18543100
W5.18543100Jul 5@ W5.09444422
W5.09444422Clay Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.73.144.75.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Mar 30@ W5.29054322
W5.29054322May 2@ W6.09238033
W6.09238033Apr 20vs W6.09164211
W6.09164211home starts5.73.165.75.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 15vs L4.19587244
L4.19587244Apr 28vs W6.09463100
W6.09463100Apr 22vs 
W7.08835122
W7.08835122Trends · STL
- STL are 5-5 vs CHC this season (10 games).
- STL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 2-3 in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 3.8 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL average 4.2 runs/game in M. Liberatore's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 1-4 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 5 starts.
- STL are 0-3 to the over in M. Liberatore's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHC
- CHC are 5-5 vs STL this season (10 games).
- CHC are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CHC are 0-1 in Clay Holmes's last 1 starts.
- CHC average 3.0 runs/game in Clay Holmes's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHC are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
77°F, Overcast, Wind 11 mph NE
APF 97 — Neutral
Flags · 7
- CHC — Clay Holmes: HH% 49% — batters are squaring up the ball at an elevated rate
- STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CHC bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — M. Liberatore: 2026-08-08: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CHC — Clay Holmes: last start: 70 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- CHC — Clay Holmes: low-K outing 2026-08-08 (1 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff was flat that day
- CHC — Clay Holmes: recent opponents low-K: ARI 18%, KCR 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
CHC Team Total o4.5 (+100)
The Cubs are crushing left-handed pitching at a 160 wRC+ over their last 6 and 162 over their last 12 — elite and fully established. Liberatore is a modest lefty (3.13 xERA but only 4.9 IP/gs over his last 3) whom Chicago squared up for 8 hits and 3 runs in 3.2 innings his last time facing them. His short outings hand the game to a St. Louis bullpen carrying a 4.70 xERA over its last 12. Even money on the league's hottest lineup against a hittable lefty and a soft bullpen is the price to take.
MIA @ 
CIN✓6:10 PM · Great American Ball ParkHitter Friendly
MIA @ CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Sandy Alcantara R
xERA2.69 (elite)ERA0.00K%23.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.7 (below avg)Barrel%7.4 (good)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs102BB%5.3
CIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+68 (poor)12+109K%26.9 (below avg)HH%39.2 (avg)Whiff%29.3
Chase Burns R
xERA3.31 (good)ERA3.86K%27.5 (good)
More Stats
HH%40.5 (below avg)Barrel%2.4 (elite)IP/gs5.4 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs91BB%10.1
MIA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+128 (above avg)12+97K%22.8 (avg)HH%42.2 (above avg)Whiff%23.2
Bullpens · Last 12
MIA
xERA 3.75 (avg)ERA 4.102d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 2.26 (elite)ERA 4.642d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIA+104-1.5 (+170)O8.0 (-105)CIN-112+1.5 (-194)U8.0 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIA+102+0.5 (-148)O3.5 (-144)CIN-128-0.5 (+114)U3.5 (+110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIA3.5 (-130/+105)1.5 (-125/-105)CIN3.5 (-128/+105)1.5 (-140/+110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USandy Alcantara5.5 (-111 / -111)18.5 (-112 / -116)Chase Burns6.5 (+102 / -121)17.5 (-125 / -102)
Sandy Alcantara · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W7.010883100
W7.010883100Aug 2@ 
W6.010254200
W6.010254200Jul 28vs 
W7.09754100
W7.09754100Jul 22@ 
L7.010839155
L7.010839155Jul 17@ 
L6.010473411
L6.010473411Chase Burns · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ L5.19666355
L5.19666355Aug 2vs 
W6.08892211
W6.08892211Jul 28vs 
L5.08945215
L5.08945215Jul 21@ 
W5.09163200
W5.09163200Jul 8vs W5.010623633
W5.010623633SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Sandy Alcantara
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN6.45.184.75.72.0(3)
at CIN5.010.804.09.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 7vs L8.19563222
L8.19563222Jul 9@ L5.010849266
L5.010849266Apr 23vs L6.010245233
L6.010245233Chase Burns
IPERAKHBB
vs MIA—
home starts5.32.815.03.33.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W6.08892211
W6.08892211Jul 28vs L5.08945215
L5.08945215Jul 8vs W5.010623633
W5.010623633Trends · MIA
- MIA are 2-2 vs CIN this season (4 games).
- MIA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 3-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 3-2 in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
- MIA average 2.6 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA average 4.4 runs/game in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIA are 1-4 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 5 starts.
- MIA are 0-3 to the over in Sandy Alcantara's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 2-2 vs MIA this season (4 games).
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 3-2 in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 4.2 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 7.6 runs/game in Chase Burns's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 3-2 to the over in Chase Burns's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-0 to the over in Chase Burns's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
84°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 2 mph NE
APF 106 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 2
- MIA — Sandy Alcantara: last start: 108 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CIN — Chase Burns: 2026-08-08: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
Sandy Alcantara o5.5 Ks (-106)
Cincinnati is striking out at a 32.9% clip against right-handed pitching over its last 6 while scuffling to a 77 wRC+, exactly the whiff-prone profile a strikeout over feeds on. Alcantara has a 23.7 K% over his last 3 with 5, 5, and 8 punchouts, and he goes deep — 6.7 IP/gs — with the outs line set at 18.5, giving him the length to clear the number. A high-K opponent plus a durable arm makes 5.5 too low at even money.
BOS @ PIT✓6:40 PM · PNC ParkNeutral Conditions
BOS @ PIT✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Jake Bennett L
xERA2.62 (elite)ERA5.19K%17.1 (avg)
More Stats
HH%30.9 (good)Barrel%3.6 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs88BB%9.2
PIT vs LHP · last 6
wRC+94 (below avg)12+75K%27.4 (below avg)HH%37.8 (avg)Whiff%26.6
Bubba Chandler R
xERA4.51 (below avg)ERA3.45K%19.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%38.3 (avg)Barrel%4.3 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs91BB%9.1
BOS vs RHP · last 6
wRC+97 (avg)12+143K%16.2 (above avg)HH%31.3 (below avg)Whiff%23.0
Bullpens · Last 12
BOS
xERA 1.89 (elite)ERA 2.932d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
PIT
xERA 2.59 (elite)ERA 2.682d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBOS-119-1.5 (+136)O8.0 (-110)PIT+112+1.5 (-157)U8.0 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBOS-124-0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-110)PIT+100+0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-118)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBOS4.5 (+110/-135)2.5 (+120/-154)PIT3.5 (-120/-106)1.5 (-154/+120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UJake Bennett4.5 (+127 / -158)17.5 (-105 / -120)Bubba Chandler4.5 (+120 / -148)15.5 (+116 / -154)
Jake Bennett · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs 
L5.18855344
L5.18855344Aug 2@ 
W5.28846233
W5.28846233Jul 28@ L6.18846233
L6.18846233Jul 22vs 
W5.28349033
W5.28349033Jul 17vs 
W6.06531100
W6.06531100Bubba Chandler · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W6.08553100
W6.08553100Aug 3@ W5.29654423
W5.29654423Jul 28vs L4.09137135
L4.09137135Jul 22@ L6.18452100
L6.18452100Jul 11vs W4.29765322
W4.29765322SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Bubba Chandler
IPERAKHBB
vs BOS—
home starts4.73.174.75.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W6.08553100
W6.08553100Jul 28vs L4.09137135
L4.09137135Jul 11vs W4.29765322
W4.29765322Trends · BOS
- BOS are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 3-2 in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
- BOS average 4.0 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS average 4.6 runs/game in Jake Bennett's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BOS are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BOS are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- BOS are 2-3 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 5 starts.
- BOS are 1-2 to the over in Jake Bennett's last 3 away starts.
Trends · PIT
- PIT are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 2-3 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 4-1 in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
- PIT average 4.0 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT average 5.4 runs/game in Bubba Chandler's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- PIT are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- PIT are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- PIT are 3-2 to the over in Bubba Chandler's last 5 starts.
- PIT are 2-1 to the over in Bubba Chandler's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Overcast, Wind 3 mph SE
APF 102 — Neutral
Flags · 2
- PIT bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BOS — Jake Bennett: recent opponents high-K: ATH 33%, ATH 33% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
PIT Team Total u3.5 (-125)
Pittsburgh cannot hit left-handed pitching, sitting at a 59 wRC+ over its last 6 and 61 over its last 12 vs LHP — an established, not streaky, weakness, with a 30.9 K% over that span. Bennett carries a 2.62 xERA over his last 3 that his 5.19 ERA badly understates, meaning the market is pricing a pitcher who has actually been much better. Behind him Boston's bullpen owns a 2.34 xERA over its last 12. A punchless lineup against a quietly excellent starter and an elite bullpen should struggle to reach four runs.
CHW @ 
DET6:40 PM · Comerica ParkHitter Friendly
CHW @ DETMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
TBD
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
DET
No data
Jackson Jobe R
xERA2.90 (elite)ERA0.00K%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%36.4 (avg)Barrel%9.1 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs1.0PC/gs71BB%6.2
CHW vs RHP · last 6
wRC+103 (avg)12+88K%26.2 (below avg)HH%38.2 (avg)Whiff%21.1
Bullpens · Last 12
CHW
xERA 3.66 (good)ERA 3.272d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
DET
xERA 3.31 (good)ERA 2.612d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCHW+132+1.5 (-162)O8.5 (-120)DET-140-1.5 (+135)U8.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCHW+124+0.5 (-118)O4.5 (-128)DET-154-0.5 (-110)U4.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCHW3.5 (-138/+110)1.5 (-154/+120)DET4.5 (-106/-115)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UTBD——Jackson Jobe4.5 (+100 / -109)14.5 (-182 / +145)
Jackson Jobe · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ 
W5.07141100
W5.07141100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jackson Jobe
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW5.03.604.04.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 6vs W5.08644323
W5.08644323home starts4.83.754.74.73.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 28vs W4.29547333
W4.29547333May 23vs L5.08934222
L5.08934222May 12vs W5.210073511
W5.210073511Trends · CHW
- CHW are 3-3 vs DET this season (6 games).
- CHW are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
Over / Under
- CHW are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · DET
- DET are 3-3 vs CHW this season (6 games).
- DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- DET are 1-0 in Jackson Jobe's last 1 starts.
- DET average 8.0 runs/game in Jackson Jobe's last 1 starts.
Over / Under
- DET are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- DET are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
85°F, Overcast, Wind 10 mph ENE
APF 104 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 4
- CHW — TBD: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- DET — Jackson Jobe: small sample (5.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- CHW bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- DET — Jackson Jobe: last start: 71 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
AI Analysis
Chicago's starter is unannounced with no stats and Jobe has just five innings across his sample, so there is nothing reliable to price against.
BAL @ TBR✓7:10 PM · Tropicana Field (Dome)
BAL @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Chris Bassitt R
xERA4.12 (avg)ERA4.73K%11.9 (poor)
More Stats
HH%27.1 (elite)Barrel%10.4 (avg)IP/gs6.7 IP/gsH/gs8.0PC/gs65BB%5.1
TBR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+161 (elite)12+144K%13.1 (elite)HH%33.8 (below avg)Whiff%18.1
Steven Matz
xERA?ERA?K%?
More Stats
HH%?Barrel%?IP/gs—H/gs?PC/gs?BB%?
BAL
No data
Bullpens · Last 12
BAL
xERA 4.15 (avg)ERA 5.902d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 4.16 (avg)ERA 4.152d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalBAL+150+1.5 (-156)O8.0 (-110)TBR-160-1.5 (+130)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalBAL+145+0.5 (-115)O4.5 (-118)TBR-160-0.5 (-113)U4.5 (-110)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UBAL3.5 (-106/-120)1.5 (-115/-115)TBR4.5 (+100/-125)2.5 (-105/-125)
Chris Bassitt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 3@ L3.05616233
L3.05616233May 28vs L6.08024111
L6.08024111May 22vs W4.1*5846033
W4.1*5846033May 16@ L5.08246144
L5.08246144May 10vs W6.0*9464111
W6.0*9464111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Chris Bassitt
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR4.46.093.78.02.0(3)
at TBR4.08.892.58.52.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 18@ L4.18938233
L4.18938233May 25@ L4.08229255
L4.08229255May 14vs W5.29667211
W5.29667211Trends · BAL
- BAL are 3-3 vs TBR this season (6 games).
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- BAL are 2-3 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.
- BAL average 4.8 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 5.4 runs/game in Chris Bassitt's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 3-3 vs BAL this season (6 games).
- TBR are 9-1 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR have won 9 straight.
Over / Under
- TBR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
Weather · Dome
Flags · 7
- TBR — Steven Matz: first start of the season — no stats available yet
- BAL bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TBR bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: 72 days since last start (2026-06-03) — may not be fully stretched out
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-05-22, 2026-05-10 — may affect pitch count or availability
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: last start: 56 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- BAL — Chris Bassitt: 2026-06-03: 3 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
TBR Team Total o4.5 (+105)
Tampa Bay has been mashing right-handed pitching, at a 161 wRC+ over its last 6 and 144 over its last 12 — both elite and pointing the same way. Bassitt is a contact-oriented arm (11.9 K% over his last 3, 10.4 Barrel%) who hasn't started in 72 days and threw only 56 pitches his last time out, so he isn't stretched and figures for a short leash, and TBR has scored 5 and 3 earned in his last two meetings against them. Once he exits, Baltimore's bullpen sits at a 5.90 ERA over its last 12. Getting plus money on a top-form lineup against a rusty pitcher and a leaking bullpen is the value.
SDP @ CLE7:10 PM · Progressive FieldNeutral Conditions
SDP @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Michael King R
xERA3.04 (good)ERA4.24K%25.0 (good)
More Stats
HH%22.2 (elite)Barrel%8.9 (avg)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs98BB%8.8
CLE vs RHP · last 6
wRC+89 (below avg)12+95K%10.2 (elite)HH%30.6 (below avg)Whiff%13.4
Gavin Williams R
xERA1.68 (elite)ERA1.96K%44.6 (elite)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%9.4 (avg)IP/gs6.1 IP/gsH/gs2.3PC/gs97BB%6.2
SDP vs RHP · last 6
wRC+114 (avg)12+115K%16.8 (above avg)HH%38.6 (avg)Whiff%20.5
Bullpens · Last 12
SDP
xERA 2.39 (elite)ERA 3.222d stress Stressed (7.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 5.00 (below avg)ERA 6.382d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSDP+119+1.5 (-195)O7.5 (+100)CLE-126-1.5 (+162)U7.5 (-118)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSDP+120+0.5 (-128)O3.5 (-146)CLE-135-0.5 (-102)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USDP3.5 (-102/-125)1.5 (-120/-110)CLE3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-145/+114)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael King3.5 (-160 / +128)17.5 (-102 / -129)Gavin Williams7.5 (+124 / -155)17.5 (-200 / +152)
Michael King · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W6.09363111
W6.09363111Aug 3@ L5.010455433
L5.010455433Jul 28vs W6.09866144
W6.09866144Jul 22@ L6.010475411
L6.010475411Jul 17@ L5.09744211
L5.09744211Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ L5.210273222
L5.210273222Aug 2vs W5.289101100
W5.289101100Jul 28@ L7.0101123122
L7.0101123122Jul 23vs L7.097112000
L7.097112000Jul 18vs L6.084117055
L6.084117055SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael King
IPERAKHBB
vs CLE5.00.0011.02.01.0(1)
at CLE—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 1vs W5.088112100
W5.088112100Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs SDP—
home starts6.12.4710.73.30.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W5.289101100
W5.289101100Jul 23vs L7.097112000
L7.097112000Jul 18vs L6.084117055
L6.084117055Trends · SDP
- SDP are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- SDP have won 5 straight.
- SDP are 2-3 in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 0-5 in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
- SDP average 4.8 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP average 3.6 runs/game in Michael King's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SDP are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SDP are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SDP are 3-2 to the over in Michael King's last 5 starts.
- SDP are 2-1 to the over in Michael King's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 2-3 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 2.0 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 2.2 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 0-3 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
79°F, Overcast, Wind 6 mph NNE
APF 100 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- CLE bullpen: bullpen xERA 5.00 — bullpen performing well below average by expected ERA
- SDP bullpen stressed (7.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- CLE bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SDP — Michael King: recent opponents low-K: COL 19%, ARI 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- CLE — Gavin Williams: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- CLE — Gavin Williams: recent opponents high-K: CIN 27%, CHW 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Gavin Williams is dominant and Cleveland's offense is weak, but San Diego's contact-oriented lineup and Cleveland's collapsing bullpen pull the game in both directions with no priced edge.
WSN @ NYM7:10 PM · Citi FieldNeutral Conditions
WSN @ NYMMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA3.28 (good)ERA2.25K%15.9 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%35.6 (avg)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs8.0 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs78BB%11.1
NYM vs LHP · last 6
wRC+71 (poor)12+133K%21.5 (avg)HH%39.5 (avg)Whiff%23.6
Robert Stock R
xERA4.97 (below avg)ERA10.13K%19.5 (avg)
More Stats
HH%29.6 (elite)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs75BB%12.2
WSN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+120 (above avg)12+104K%21.8 (avg)HH%42.2 (above avg)Whiff%24.9
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 4.92 (below avg)ERA 3.822d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
NYM
xERA 3.89 (avg)ERA 3.572d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+106-1.5 (+164)O8.5 (-115)NYM-113-1.5 (+162)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN-106+0.5 (-154)O4.5 (-120)NYM-115-0.5 (+120)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN4.5 (+118/-140)2.5 (+124/-160)NYM4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Alvarez4.5 (+110 / -128)14.5 (-132 / +100)Robert Stock3.5 (-142 / +121)14.5 (-130 / +101)
Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W5.17323111
W5.17323111Aug 3@ L6.18153322
L6.18153322Jul 27vs L4.1*8034311
L4.1*8034311Jul 20@ W4.17426333
W4.17426333Jul 12vs L2.0*4024133
L2.0*4024133Robert Stock · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ L3.08049588
L3.08049588Aug 2vs L5.07043011
L5.07043011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Andrew Alvarez
IPERAKHBB
vs NYM3.111.614.07.01.0(1)
at NYM3.111.614.07.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Sep 19@ L3.18147146
L3.18147146Robert Stock
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN—
home starts5.01.804.03.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L5.07043011
L5.07043011Trends · WSN
- WSN are 4-3 vs NYM this season (7 games).
- WSN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 4.4 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 4.0 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · NYM
- NYM are 3-4 vs WSN this season (7 games).
- NYM are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 0-2 in Robert Stock's last 2 starts.
- NYM are 0-1 in Robert Stock's last 1 home starts.
- NYM average 0.0 runs/game in Robert Stock's last 2 starts.
- NYM average 0.0 runs/game in Robert Stock's last 1 home starts.
Over / Under
- NYM are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYM are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- NYM are 0-2 to the over in Robert Stock's last 2 starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
82°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 7 mph SSE
APF 101 — Neutral
Flags · 8
- NYM — Robert Stock: small sample (8.0 IP over 3 starts) — stats may not reflect true ability
- NYM — Robert Stock: BB% 12% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- WSN bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYM bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: last start: 73 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent opponents low-K: COL 17%, CIN 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- NYM — Robert Stock: 2026-08-08: 8 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 24) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Robert Stock's ugly ERA overstates a merely below-average xERA, and the Mets' huge gap between their last-6 and last-12 marks vs lefties makes both the total and sides too noisy to bet.
ARI @ ATL7:15 PM · Truist ParkHot
ARI @ ATLMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Brandon Pfaadt R
xERA2.05 (elite)ERA0.00K%11.8 (poor)
More Stats
HH%27.0 (elite)Barrel%3.2 (elite)IP/gs6.9 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs95BB%5.3
ATL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+79 (poor)12+108K%28.1 (poor)HH%46.3 (elite)Whiff%25.3
Chris Sale L
xERA2.01 (elite)ERA3.00K%41.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%38.9 (avg)Barrel%5.6 (good)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs98BB%4.4
ARI vs LHP · last 6
wRC+173 (elite)12+146K%14.6 (elite)HH%33.3 (below avg)Whiff%13.6
Bullpens · Last 12
ARI
xERA 4.11 (avg)ERA 3.952d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
ATL
xERA 3.67 (good)ERA 3.762d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalARI+182+1.5 (-122)O8.0 (-105)ATL-194-1.5 (+106)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalARI+172+0.5 (+110)O4.5 (-106)ATL-200-0.5 (-144)U4.5 (-122)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UARI3.5 (+114/-140)1.5 (-115/-115)ATL4.5 (-110/-115)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UBrandon Pfaadt3.5 (-105 / -109)17.5 (-106 / -124)Chris Sale6.5 (-117 / -106)17.5 (-172 / +135)
Brandon Pfaadt · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs L7.09322200
L7.09322200Aug 3vs W6.29035101
W6.29035101Jul 28@ W7.010146100
W7.010146100Jul 23@ W6.08717222
W6.08717222Jul 18vs W5.18736022
W5.18736022Chris Sale · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ L6.010385233
L6.010385233Jul 29@ W6.09492000
W6.09492000Jul 23vs W6.098115133
W6.098115133Jul 17vs 
W7.08962000
W7.08962000Jul 10@ L3.04352100
L3.04352100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Brandon Pfaadt
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL4.47.503.37.01.7(3)
at ATL3.018.002.06.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 5vs W4.27926233
W4.27926233Jun 5@ W3.07426266
W3.07426266Apr 27vs W6.010069123
W6.010069123Chris Sale
IPERAKHBB
vs ARI5.51.647.04.03.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 4vs L6.0103103411
L6.0103103411Apr 25@ W5.010445211
W5.010445211home starts6.03.006.74.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs W6.098115133
W6.098115133Jul 17vs W7.08962000
W7.08962000Jul 4vs W5.09837233
W5.09837233Trends · ARI
- ARI are 2-2 vs ATL this season (4 games).
- ARI are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 4-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 away starts.
- ARI average 5.8 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI average 7.0 runs/game in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ARI are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ARI are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ARI are 3-2 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 5 starts.
- ARI are 3-0 to the over in Brandon Pfaadt's last 3 away starts.
Trends · ATL
- ATL are 2-2 vs ARI this season (4 games).
- ATL are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 3-2 in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 4-1 in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
- ATL average 5.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 8.2 runs/game in Chris Sale's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATL are 3-2 to the over in Chris Sale's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-0 to the over in Chris Sale's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hot
94°F, Clear, Wind 6 mph W
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- ARI bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ARI — Brandon Pfaadt: recent opponents low-K: SDP 17%, LAD 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- ATL — Chris Sale: last start: 103 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
AI Analysis
Arizona's elite offense vs lefties collides with a Chris Sale who has quieted them (1.64 ERA over 2 meetings) while Pfaadt's shutout run clashes with Atlanta's history of hitting him, leaving no clean edge at these prices.
NYY @ TOR✓7:15 PM · Rogers CentreHitter Friendly
NYY @ TOR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Gerrit Cole R
xERA2.98 (elite)ERA1.45K%28.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.8 (below avg)Barrel%2.1 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs93BB%6.8
TOR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+126 (above avg)12+99K%19.8 (above avg)HH%28.6 (poor)Whiff%19.2
Shane Bieber R
xERA6.27 (poor)ERA7.50K%15.9 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%38.1 (avg)Barrel%9.5 (avg)IP/gs4.0 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs75BB%17.5
NYY vs RHP · last 6
wRC+95 (avg)12+92K%27.5 (below avg)HH%41.4 (above avg)Whiff%24.6
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 3.62 (good)ERA 3.642d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
TOR
xERA 3.11 (good)ERA 4.052d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-140-1.5 (+118)O8.0 (-104)TOR+132+1.5 (-135)U7.5 (+100)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-160-0.5 (-114)O4.5 (+106)TOR+132+0.5 (-115)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY4.5 (+106/-125)2.5 (+120/-154)TOR3.5 (+105/-130)1.5 (-120/-110)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole5.5 (+126 / +120)18.5 (+148 / -191)Shane Bieber5.5 (+136 / -142)16.5 (-115 / -110)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W7.08296022
W7.08296022Aug 2@ W5.29954311
W5.29954311Jul 28@ W6.09974200
W6.09974200Jul 22vs L7.093114033
L7.093114033Jul 17vs L6.010384122
L6.010384122Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ L5.29746355
L5.29746355Aug 3@ W5.28769211
W5.28769211Jul 28@ L0.24201644
L0.24201644Jul 23vs W7.08633011
W7.08633011Jul 18vs W6.08063200
W6.08063200SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane Bieber
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY—
home starts6.01.494.33.72.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs W7.08633011
W7.08633011Jul 18vs W6.08063200
W6.08063200Jun 28vs L5.19245422
L5.19245422Trends · NYY
- NYY are 4-3 vs TOR this season (7 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 2.8 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 1.8 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 1-4 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 0-3 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-4 vs NYY this season (7 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-2 in Shane Bieber's last 4 home starts.
- TOR average 3.8 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 3.2 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 4 home starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TOR are 2-3 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 0-2 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
76°F, Overcast, Wind 2 mph SSE
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- TOR — Shane Bieber: BB% 17% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- NYY — Gerrit Cole: recent opponents high-K: CHW 26%, ATL 28% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
Gerrit Cole o5.5 Ks (+126)
Cole has a 28.4% strikeout rate over his last 3 with punchout totals of 7, 5, and 9, and his 18.5-out line gives him the length to pile them up. Toronto's 19.8% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6 is ordinary, not a contact wall, so nothing about this matchup suppresses his rate. Getting plus money on a total his recent form clears in two of three outings is a mispriced number on an ace working deep.
SEA @ HOU✓8:10 PM · Daikin Park (Roof Closed)
SEA @ HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
George Kirby R
xERA4.11 (avg)ERA4.50K%12.1 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%37.0 (avg)Barrel%11.1 (below avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs86BB%4.5
HOU vs RHP · last 6
wRC+40 (poor)12+123K%20.0 (avg)HH%40.0 (above avg)Whiff%24.5
Peter Lambert R
xERA3.11 (good)ERA3.45K%25.4 (good)
More Stats
HH%34.9 (good)Barrel%9.3 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs90BB%9.0
SEA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+70 (poor)12+85K%24.2 (below avg)HH%44.8 (above avg)Whiff%25.1
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.52 (below avg)ERA 7.902d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 2.37 (elite)ERA 1.392d stress Stressed (8.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+114+1.5 (-198)O8.5 (+100)HOU-119-1.5 (+168)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+100+0.5 (-148)O4.5 (-104)HOU-122-0.5 (+114)U4.5 (-125)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (-145/+114)HOU3.5 (-145/+122)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGeorge Kirby4.5 (-161 / +126)17.5 (-133 / +101)Peter Lambert4.5 (-157 / +134)17.5 (-118 / -110)
George Kirby · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs L5.09924211
L5.09924211Aug 2vs W7.09435100
W7.09435100Jul 27@ L4.06637077
L4.06637077Jul 20vs W6.08063100
W6.08063100Jul 8@ L6.08678022
L6.08678022Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ L5.09735323
L5.09735323Aug 2vs W5.28383222
W5.28383222Jul 28@ W5.09067122
W5.09067122Jul 22vs W6.08936222
W6.08936222Jul 17vs L6.0104103311
L6.0104103311SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
George Kirby
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU6.11.486.76.31.0(3)
at HOU4.73.806.06.01.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 11@ W5.09977211
W5.09977211Apr 13vs W7.29967122
W7.29967122Sep 20@ W6.010075000
W6.010075000May 22@ L3.27246155
L3.27246155Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA7.03.866.06.01.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 11vs L7.09666133
L7.09666133home starts5.72.627.04.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs W5.28383222
W5.28383222Jul 22vs W6.08936222
W6.08936222Jul 17vs L6.0104103311
L6.0104103311Trends · SEA
- SEA are 7-1 vs HOU this season (8 games).
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 2-3 in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-4 in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 4.0 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 1.6 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 3-2 to the over in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-1 to the over in George Kirby's last 2 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 1-7 vs SEA this season (8 games).
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 3-2 in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 3.8 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 4.0 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 0-5 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 0-3 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Roof Closed
Flags · 3
- SEA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- HOU bullpen stressed (8.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SEA — George Kirby: 2026-07-27: 7 ER in 4.0 IP (ERA equiv 16) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+126)
Kirby's bat-missing has vanished — a 12.1% strikeout rate over his last 3 with just 3, 3, and 2 punchouts in those starts. Houston makes solid contact at a 20.0% strikeout rate vs RHP over its last 6, offering no help getting there. Reaching five would mean nearly doubling his recent per-start output, and plus money on the under is a gift given how few whiffs he is generating right now.
KCR @ LAA9:38 PM · Angel StadiumNeutral Conditions
KCR @ LAAMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Seth Lugo R
xERA3.81 (avg)ERA4.76K%13.7 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%31.5 (good)Barrel%1.8 (elite)IP/gs5.7 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs91BB%11.0
LAA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+67 (poor)12+66K%29.9 (poor)HH%30.9 (below avg)Whiff%26.4
G. Rodriguez R
xERA4.10 (avg)ERA3.94K%29.4 (elite)
More Stats
HH%35.0 (good)Barrel%12.5 (below avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs93BB%10.3
KCR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+79 (poor)12+89K%14.0 (elite)HH%39.2 (avg)Whiff%16.7
Bullpens · Last 12
KCR
xERA 4.69 (below avg)ERA 5.152d stress Stressed (5.7 IP/1g)
LAA
xERA 2.63 (elite)ERA 3.882d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalKCR-104-1.5 (+146)O8.5 (-108)LAA+101+1.5 (-171)U8.5 (-106)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalKCR-114-0.5 (+120)O4.5 (-120)LAA-112+0.5 (-156)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UKCR4.5 (+108/-130)2.5 (+124/-160)LAA3.5 (-140/+114)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/USeth Lugo5.5 (+120 / +116)17.5 (-120 / -110)G. Rodriguez5.5 (+130 / -163)15.5 (-131 / -102)
Seth Lugo · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W6.09055133
W6.09055133Aug 2@ L5.09935555
L5.09935555Jul 28@ L6.08426211
L6.08426211Jul 22vs W7.09453233
W7.09453233Jul 17vs W6.09034212
W6.09034212G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9@ L4.08384434
L4.08384434Aug 4@ L7.09863122
L7.09863122Jul 29vs L5.09865222
L5.09865222Jul 24@ L4.08036255
L4.08036255Jul 18vs L4.08737166
L4.08737166SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Seth Lugo
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA6.110.333.014.01.0(1)
at LAA—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 26vs W6.197314177
W6.197314177G. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs KCR—
home starts3.78.113.35.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29vs L5.09865222
L5.09865222Jul 18vs L4.08737166
L4.08737166Jun 14vs L2.14713222
L2.14713222Trends · KCR
- KCR are 3-0 vs LAA this season (3 games).
- KCR are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- KCR have lost 4 straight.
- KCR are 3-2 in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-4 in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
- KCR average 4.2 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 4.6 runs/game in Seth Lugo's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- KCR are 1-4 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 0-3 to the over in Seth Lugo's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAA
- LAA are 0-3 vs KCR this season (3 games).
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 0-5 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 0-5 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
- LAA average 2.8 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 2.6 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAA are 2-3 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-1 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
76°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph SW
APF 103 — Neutral
Flags · 3
- LAA — G. Rodriguez: Barrel% 12% — high hard contact rate, elevated home run risk
- KCR bullpen stressed (5.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR — Seth Lugo: 2026-08-02: 5 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Two poor offenses meet two mediocre arms with Rodriguez a home-run risk, and the conflicting signals on the strikeout props and total leave no confident number.
TEX @ ATH9:40 PM · Sutter Health ParkHitter Friendly
TEX @ ATHMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Kumar Rocker R
xERA4.42 (avg)ERA6.60K%24.3 (good)
More Stats
HH%36.2 (avg)Barrel%10.6 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs82BB%8.6
ATH vs RHP · last 6
wRC+99 (avg)12+86K%20.6 (avg)HH%31.6 (below avg)Whiff%23.7
Gage Jump L
xERA3.44 (good)ERA4.60K%32.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%25.7 (elite)Barrel%0.0 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs93BB%17.1
TEX vs LHP · last 6
wRC+98 (avg)12+117K%27.0 (below avg)HH%50.0 (elite)Whiff%28.5
Bullpens · Last 12
TEX
xERA 3.46 (good)ERA 4.272d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
ATH
xERA 4.79 (below avg)ERA 8.662d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTEX-106-1.5 (+146)O9.5 (+100)ATH+101+1.5 (-175)U9.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTEX-104+0.5 (-146)O5.5 (+112)ATH-120-0.5 (+112)U5.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UTEX4.5 (-120/-102)ATH4.5 (-108/-118)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKumar Rocker4.5 (+102 / -125)15.5 (-119 / -112)Gage Jump5.5 (-140 / +112)15.5 (-125 / -104)
Kumar Rocker · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs L3.06957266
L3.06957266Aug 2@ L5.188510233
L5.188510233Jul 27vs W6.28874222
W6.28874222Jul 21vs W6.07561200
W6.07561200Jul 11vs L5.29168277
L5.29168277Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ W6.0100116222
W6.0100116222Aug 2vs L3.28854666
L3.28854666Jul 28vs W6.09073400
W6.09073400Jul 22@ L4.28358466
L4.28358466Jul 17vs L3.28784234
L3.28784234SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kumar Rocker
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH3.87.113.75.72.3(3)
at ATH2.711.674.05.52.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Apr 26vs L6.08436222
L6.08436222Apr 15@ L4.29764422
L4.29764422Apr 23@ L1.26327155
L1.26327155Gage Jump
IPERAKHBB
vs TEX—
home starts4.16.536.73.74.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L3.28854666
L3.28854666Jul 28vs W6.09073400
W6.09073400Jul 17vs L3.28784234
L3.28784234Trends · TEX
- TEX are 3-4 vs ATH this season (7 games).
- TEX are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-3 in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
- TEX average 5.6 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 3.2 runs/game in Kumar Rocker's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TEX are 4-1 to the over in Kumar Rocker's last 5 starts.
Trends · ATH
- ATH are 4-3 vs TEX this season (7 games).
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 1-9 in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-4 in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
- ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 4.0 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- ATH are 3-2 to the over in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-1 to the over in Gage Jump's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
79°F, Clear, Wind 11 mph SW
APF 107 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 6
- ATH — Gage Jump: BB% 17% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- ATH bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: last start: 69 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook
- TEX — Kumar Rocker: 2026-08-09: 6 ER in 3.0 IP (ERA equiv 18) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-08-02: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Gage Jump: recent opponents high-K: BOS 32%, BOS 32% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
AI Analysis
Both starters are shaky and the Athletics bullpen is in tatters, but the total already reflects that at 9.5 and neither side offers a mispriced number.
MIL @ LAD10:10 PM · UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHitter Friendly
MIL @ LADMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Robert Gasser L
xERA4.65 (below avg)ERA3.45K%19.4 (avg)
More Stats
HH%39.6 (avg)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs82BB%6.0
LAD vs LHP · last 6
wRC+87 (below avg)12+121K%23.9 (avg)HH%38.1 (avg)Whiff%23.2
Y. Yamamoto R
xERA2.60 (elite)ERA1.83K%17.9 (avg)
More Stats
HH%33.9 (good)Barrel%5.4 (good)IP/gs6.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs101BB%9.0
MIL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+78 (poor)12+86K%24.2 (below avg)HH%41.5 (above avg)Whiff%26.2
Bullpens · Last 12
MIL
xERA 2.53 (elite)ERA 2.382d stress Normal (3.7 IP/1g)
LAD
xERA 2.95 (elite)ERA 4.072d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalMIL+164+1.5 (-137)O7.5 (-115)LAD-176-1.5 (+125)U7.5 (-102)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalMIL+172+0.5 (+108)O4.5 (+108)LAD-210-0.5 (-140)U4.5 (-140)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UMIL3.5 (+116/-140)1.5 (-105/-125)LAD4.5 (+112/-130)2.5 (-105/-125)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/URobert Gasser4.5 (+110 / -140)15.5 (-110 / -116)Y. Yamamoto6.5 (-128 / +106)18.5 (+119 / -150)
Robert Gasser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W4.29437233
W4.29437233Aug 1@ W5.07664211
W5.07664211Jul 25vs W6.07745022
W6.07745022Jul 19vs W5.08653011
W5.08653011Jul 12@ L3.05838077
L3.05838077Y. Yamamoto · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ W5.210763300
W5.210763300Aug 1vs L8.09634133
L8.09634133Jul 25@ W6.010055311
W6.010055311Jul 19@ W9.010274022
W9.010274022Jul 11vs L6.010365466
L6.010365466SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Robert Gasser
IPERAKHBB
vs LAD4.18.784.04.04.0(1)
at LAD—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 23vs L4.18944444
L4.18944444Y. Yamamoto
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL3.65.001.55.51.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 24@ W7.09237111
W7.09237111Jul 7@ L0.24104235
L0.24104235home starts7.03.866.34.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 1vs L8.09634133
L8.09634133Jul 11vs L6.010365466
L6.010365466Jul 4vs W7.0100103200
W7.0100103200Trends · MIL
- MIL are 2-2 vs LAD this season (4 games).
- MIL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 3-2 in Robert Gasser's last 5 away starts.
- MIL average 4.6 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 6.4 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- MIL are 3-2 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 1-2 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 3 away starts.
Trends · LAD
- LAD are 2-2 vs MIL this season (4 games).
- LAD are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 3-2 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 2-3 in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
- LAD average 3.2 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD average 3.6 runs/game in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- LAD are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAD are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- LAD are 3-2 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 5 starts.
- LAD are 1-2 to the over in Y. Yamamoto's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Hitter Friendly
72°F, Clear, Wind 8 mph WSW
APF 103 — Hitter Friendly
Flags · 3
- MIL — Robert Gasser: recent opponents low-K: COL 17%, LAA 17% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: last start: 107 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- LAD — Y. Yamamoto: recent opponents low-K: BOS 16%, ARI 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
AI Analysis
Yamamoto is elite against a weak Milwaukee lineup but the Dodgers' price is steep and their own bats are slumping against lefties, so the sides and total sit fairly.
COL @ SFG✓10:15 PM · Oracle ParkNeutral Conditions
COL @ SFG✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Kyle Freeland L
xERA3.15 (good)ERA3.38K%16.2 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%36.7 (avg)Barrel%10.0 (avg)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs101BB%7.5
SFG vs LHP · last 6
wRC+-28 (poor)12+16K%36.2 (poor)HH%44.4 (above avg)Whiff%37.6
Landen Roupp R
xERA4.40 (avg)ERA6.59K%15.4 (below avg)
More Stats
HH%21.4 (elite)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs4.6 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs89BB%18.5
COL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+99 (avg)12+110K%18.8 (above avg)HH%38.2 (avg)Whiff%24.6
Bullpens · Last 12
COL
xERA 4.36 (avg)ERA 4.192d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
SFG
xERA 4.26 (avg)ERA 4.242d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalCOL+116+1.5 (-198)O7.5 (-112)SFG-124-1.5 (+168)U7.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalCOL+106+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (+112)SFG-130-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-146)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UCOL3.5 (-113/-113)1.5 (-135/+105)SFG3.5 (-130/+102)1.5 (-160/+124)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UKyle Freeland5.5 (+125 / -154)17.5 (-158 / +126)Landen Roupp5.5 (-128 / +106)17.5 (-143 / +115)
Kyle Freeland · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8@ W4.110135313
W4.110135313Aug 2vs W9.011585211
W9.011585211Jul 26@ L5.18726155
L5.18726155Jul 20vs L6.09147244
L6.09147244Jul 11@ L6.09296044
L6.09296044Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs L5.18532511
L5.18532511Aug 2@ L4.29966455
L4.29966455Jul 28vs L3.28414344
L3.28414344Jul 22@ L6.09174022
L6.09174022Jul 17@ W7.09722300
W7.09722300SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Freeland
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG4.06.754.33.70.3(3)
at SFG6.05.006.05.31.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 11@ L6.09296044
L6.09296044Sep 27@ L6.08743133
L6.08743133Sep 2vs L0.0802022
L0.0802022May 1@ W6.09157233
W6.09157233Landen Roupp
IPERAKHBB
vs COL—
home starts5.43.313.03.03.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs L5.18532511
L5.18532511Jul 28vs L3.28414344
L3.28414344Jul 6vs W8.010453211
W8.010453211Trends · COL
- COL are 5-5 vs SFG this season (10 games).
- COL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- COL are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 2-3 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-4 in Kyle Freeland's last 5 away starts.
- COL average 4.6 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL average 4.8 runs/game in Kyle Freeland's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- COL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- COL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Freeland's last 5 starts.
- COL are 1-2 to the over in Kyle Freeland's last 3 away starts.
Trends · SFG
- SFG are 5-5 vs COL this season (10 games).
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
- SFG average 3.4 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 3.8 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- SFG are 4-0 to the over in Landen Roupp's last 4 starts.
- SFG are 2-0 to the over in Landen Roupp's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Neutral Conditions
61°F, Partly Cloudy, Wind 13 mph WNW
APF 98 — Neutral
Flags · 6
- SFG — Landen Roupp: BB% 18% — command concerns, elevated walk rate
- COL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- COL — Kyle Freeland: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- COL — Kyle Freeland: 2026-07-26: 5 ER in 5.1 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- COL — Kyle Freeland: recent opponents high-K: MIL 32%, KCR 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- SFG — Landen Roupp: recent opponents low-K: SDP 17%, DET 19% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
SFG Team Total u3.5 (+105)
San Francisco has been historically helpless against left-handed pitching, posting a -28 wRC+ over its last 6 and just 16 over its last 12 vs LHP with a 36.2 K% — both windows catastrophic. Freeland brings a 3.15 xERA over his last 3 into a pitcher-friendly park. Getting plus money on the under for a lineup that essentially cannot score against lefties, facing a solid one, is a clear mispricing.