AI Picks · 8 Bets · Aug 20
STL ML (-106)
McGreevy has shut CIN down in three straight meetings (1.42 ERA, 6.3 IP/gs) and CIN's offense is the weakest on the board at 43 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 49 over its last 12. STL brings the better lineup at 121 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (105 over its last 12) against Singer's 4.81 xERA over his last 3. For a team holding both the pitching and hitting edge, -106 is well short of what this matchup deserves.
Found at 10:29 AM ET
Brady Singer o4.5 Ks (+112)
Singer has punched out STL consistently in three meetings at 6.7 K/gs (8, 6, 6), each comfortably clearing this number, and STL whiffs at a 25.6 K% vs RHP over its last 6. He works deep at 6.0 IP/gs over his last 3, so the innings are there. Priced at plus money, the market is leaning on his modest overall strikeout rate and ignoring how he has actually carved up this specific lineup.
Found at 10:29 AM ET
Shane Bieber u3.5 Ks (+100)
TBR barely strikes out at a 14.2 K% vs RHP over its last 6, and Bieber has managed just 3 Ks in each of his two starts against them. His recent strikeout totals were built against high-whiff lineups (HOU 26%, NYY 30%), inflating his 19.7 K% over his last 3. Getting plus money on the under against a contact-heavy lineup he already fails to miss bats against is a clear overpay on the over.
Found at 10:29 AM ET
CHW ML (-102)
CHW's offense is scorching at 137 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 123 over its last 12 against Holmes' 4.16 xERA over his last 3, while ATL is cold at 88 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6. CHW also owns the far better relief corps at 3.33 xERA over its last 12 versus ATL's 4.21. For the home side holding the offensive and bullpen edges, an even-money price undervalues them.
Found at 10:29 AM ET
George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+113)
Kirby is running a 10.0 K% over his last 3 and has recorded just 3, 2, and 2 strikeouts in those starts, and he fanned only 3 in 6 innings the one time he faced this club. MIL makes plenty of contact at a 21.8 K% vs RHP over its last 6 with a 53.1 HH%, so there is no whiff spike coming. A line of 4.5 nearly doubles his recent per-start total, and getting plus money on the under is a clear mispricing.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
MIL ML (-121)
Milwaukee's bullpen has been elite over its last 12 at a 2.41 xERA while Seattle's has cratered to a 9.24 ERA, a gap that decides late innings. Gasser has held up at home with a 3.55 ERA over his last 3 there and MIL has won its last 5 home starts behind him, while SEA's road bats managed just 3.0 runs per game over their last 5 SP starts. At home with that relief edge, MIL is worth more than this near-coinflip price.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
LAA @ HOU u8.5 (-110)
Both starters own elite recent form — Rodriguez at a 2.76 xERA over his last 3 and Lambert at 2.65 xERA over his last 3 — and each faces a punchless lineup: HOU is a 68 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (75 over its last 12) and LAA a 94 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (83 over its last 12). Both bullpens back it up, HOU at 3.06 xERA and LAA at 2.58 xERA over their last 12. Two elite arms against two poor offenses with quality relief behind them does not support a 8.5, and the market has this priced as an average run environment.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
G. Rodriguez o4.5 Ks (-111)
Rodriguez carries a 30.2 K% over his last 3 and has struck out 6, 8, and 5 in those starts, clearing this number even in the two four-inning outings. HOU whiffs at a 23.5 K% vs RHP over its last 6, and he got 6 per start across two meetings with them. The line sits well below his recent output, and even a short leash does not threaten it given how many he misses per inning.
Found at 4:09 AM ET
Games In Progress / Completed
AI-generated · For entertainment only · Not financial advice
STL @ 
CIN✓12:40 PM · Great American Ball Park
STL @ CIN✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Michael McGreevy R
xERA3.81 (avg)ERA2.81 (elite)K%21.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%42.9 (below)Barrel%6.1 (good)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs98BB%7.2
CIN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+43 (poor)12+49 (poor)K%31.6 (poor)HH%44.4 (above)Whiff%27.9 (below)
Brady Singer R
xERA4.81 (below)ERA4.50 (below)K%16.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%43.1 (below)Barrel%8.6 (avg)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs7.0PC/gs99BB%7.7
STL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+121 (above)12+105 (avg)K%25.6 (below)HH%42.2 (above)Whiff%22.9 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
STL
xERA 3.37 (good)ERA 3.00 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CIN
xERA 3.04 (good)ERA 6.15 (poor)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSTL-106-1.5 (+145)O9.0 (-107)CIN+100+1.5 (-170)U9.0 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSTL-115-0.5 (+118)O4.5 (-120)CIN-110+0.5 (-154)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USTL4.5 (-110/-115)2.5 (+110/-140)CIN4.5 (+112/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UMichael McGreevy4.5 (-101 / -115)17.5 (+101 / -132)Brady Singer4.5 (+112 / -132)17.5 (-125 / -102)
Michael McGreevy · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ 
W6.010265203
W6.010265203Aug 9vs 
W5.210248233
W5.210248233Aug 3@ 
W4.19154122
W4.19154122Jul 28vs L1.26328277
L1.26328277Jul 23vs 
L6.19537344
L6.19537344Brady Singer · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs 
L6.09348233
L6.09348233Aug 9@ 
L6.010338133
L6.010338133Aug 4vs 
W6.010165333
W6.010165333Jul 29vs 
L4.110037444
L4.110037444Jul 22@ 
W6.210166133
W6.210166133SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Michael McGreevy
IPERAKHBB
vs CIN6.31.42elite3.74.31.7(3)
at CIN6.01.50elite0.05.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 7vs W6.08355022
W6.08355022Sep 16vs W7.09163300
W7.09163300Aug 30@ W6.09305211
W6.09305211Brady Singer
IPERAKHBB
vs STL5.12.96elite6.74.01.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 5@ L4.08964314
L4.08964314Sep 17@ W5.29763212
W5.29763212Aug 31vs W6.010285033
W6.010285033home starts5.45.59poor4.36.73.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L6.09348233
L6.09348233Aug 4vs W6.010165333
W6.010165333Jul 29vs L4.110037444
L4.110037444Trends · STL
- STL are 7-7 vs CIN this season (14 games).
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- STL are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 3-2 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 3-2 in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.
- STL average 7.2 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL average 6.4 runs/game in Michael McGreevy's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- STL are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- STL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- STL are 4-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 5 starts.
- STL are 1-1 to the over in Michael McGreevy's last 2 away starts.
Trends · CIN
- CIN are 7-7 vs STL this season (14 games).
- CIN are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 2-3 in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
- CIN average 3.2 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN average 2.0 runs/game in Brady Singer's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CIN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CIN are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CIN are 2-3 to the over in Brady Singer's last 5 starts.
- CIN are 2-1 to the over in Brady Singer's last 3 home starts.
Weather
77°F, Wind 5 mph WNW
Flags · 3
- STL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- STL — Michael McGreevy: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (NL Central) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
STL ML (-106)
McGreevy has shut CIN down in three straight meetings (1.42 ERA, 6.3 IP/gs) and CIN's offense is the weakest on the board at 43 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 49 over its last 12. STL brings the better lineup at 121 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (105 over its last 12) against Singer's 4.81 xERA over his last 3. For a team holding both the pitching and hitting edge, -106 is well short of what this matchup deserves.
Brady Singer o4.5 Ks (+112)
Singer has punched out STL consistently in three meetings at 6.7 K/gs (8, 6, 6), each comfortably clearing this number, and STL whiffs at a 25.6 K% vs RHP over its last 6. He works deep at 6.0 IP/gs over his last 3, so the innings are there. Priced at plus money, the market is leaning on his modest overall strikeout rate and ignoring how he has actually carved up this specific lineup.
SFG @ CLE1:10 PM · Progressive Field
SFG @ CLEMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Landen Roupp R
xERA5.25 (poor)ERA5.74 (poor)K%19.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%32.6 (good)Barrel%10.9 (avg)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs92BB%16.4
CLE vs RHP · last 6
wRC+53 (poor)12+85 (below)K%21.1 (avg)HH%33.9 (below)Whiff%17.5 (elite)
Gavin Williams R
xERA2.93 (elite)ERA4.02 (avg)K%33.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%13.9 (below)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs3.7PC/gs94BB%10.8
SFG vs RHP · last 6
wRC+101 (avg)12+89 (below)K%23.6 (avg)HH%42.5 (above)Whiff%25.6 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
SFG
xERA 3.83 (avg)ERA 4.24 (avg)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
CLE
xERA 3.76 (avg)ERA 4.91 (below)2d stress Normal (3.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSFG+180+1.5 (-120)O7.0 (-110)CLE-194-1.5 (+118)U7.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSFG+154+0.5 (-106)O3.5 (-128)CLE-196-0.5 (-122)U3.5 (-102)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USFG2.5 (-130/+104)1.5 (+120/-154)CLE4.5 (+120/+116)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/ULanden Roupp4.5 (+116 / -138)15.5 (-108 / -115)Gavin Williams7.5 (+100 / -110)17.5 (-178 / +138)
Landen Roupp · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs L5.29155344
L5.29155344Aug 8vs 
L5.18532511
L5.18532511Aug 2@ 
L4.29966455
L4.29966455Jul 28vs 
L3.28414344
L3.28414344Jul 22@ 
L6.09174022
L6.09174022Gavin Williams · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs L4.19157455
L4.19157455Aug 8@ 
L5.210273222
L5.210273222Aug 2vs W5.289101100
W5.289101100Jul 28@ L7.0101123122
L7.0101123122Jul 23vs 
L7.097112000
L7.097112000SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Gavin Williams
IPERAKHBB
vs SFG6.00.00elite6.02.03.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 19@ L6.010462300
L6.010462300home starts5.42.76elite8.73.31.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs L4.19157455
L4.19157455Aug 2vs W5.289101100
W5.289101100Jul 23vs L7.097112000
L7.097112000Trends · SFG
- SFG are 1-1 vs CLE this season (2 games).
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 3-7 in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 0-5 in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG are 1-4 in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.
- SFG average 2.4 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 starts.
- SFG average 4.0 runs/game in Landen Roupp's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SFG are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SFG are 3-1 to the over in Landen Roupp's last 4 starts.
Trends · CLE
- CLE are 1-1 vs SFG this season (2 games).
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 1-4 in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-4 in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
- CLE average 2.8 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE average 2.4 runs/game in Gavin Williams's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CLE are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CLE are 2-3 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 5 starts.
- CLE are 1-2 to the over in Gavin Williams's last 3 home starts.
Flags · 6
- SFG bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SFG — Landen Roupp: 2026-08-02: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- SFG — Landen Roupp: recent opponents low-K: SDP 18%, DET 16% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- CLE — Gavin Williams: 2026-08-14: 5 ER in 4.1 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- CLE — Gavin Williams: recent opponents low-K: CHW 19%, SDP 18% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- TREND: CLE — lost the last game 1-0 — decided by a single run; a shutout loss this close says little about the offense, don't treat it as a slump
AI Analysis
CLE is priced up at -194 which is beyond a reasonable range, and CLE's 53 wRC+ over its last 6 is a slump against its 85 over 12 that muddies both the side and the total.
TOR @ 
TBR✓1:10 PM · Tropicana Field
TOR @ TBR✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Shane Bieber R
xERA4.94 (below)ERA3.63 (good)K%19.7 (avg)
More Stats
HH%50.9 (poor)Barrel%12.7 (below)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs89BB%7.9
TBR vs RHP · last 6
wRC+128 (above)12+144 (elite)K%14.2 (elite)HH%32.2 (below)Whiff%18.0 (above)
Ian Seymour L
xERA4.50 (below)ERA3.00 (good)K%32.9 (elite)
More Stats
HH%41.7 (below)Barrel%12.5 (below)IP/gs6.0 IP/gsH/gs6.0PC/gs94BB%4.0
TOR vs LHP · last 6
wRC+85 (below)12+73 (poor)K%11.8 (elite)HH%20.0 (poor)Whiff%11.7 (elite)
Bullpens · Last 12
TOR
xERA 2.73 (elite)ERA 3.02 (good)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
TBR
xERA 4.55 (below)ERA 5.29 (poor)2d stress Elevated (5.3 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalTOR+150+1.5 (-150)O7.0 (-115)TBR-158-1.5 (+138)U7.0 (-101)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalTOR+140+0.5 (-113)O4.5 (+106)TBR-174-0.5 (-115)U4.5 (-138)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UTOR3.5 (+124/+120)1.5 (-105/-125)TBR3.5 (-132/+110)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UShane Bieber3.5 (-125 / +100)16.5 (-117 / -110)Ian Seymour5.5 (-104 / -115)17.5 (-154 / +123)
Shane Bieber · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs W6.08454111
W6.08454111Aug 9@ 
L5.29746355
L5.29746355Aug 3@ 
W5.28769211
W5.28769211Jul 28@ L0.24201644
L0.24201644Jul 23vs W7.08633011
W7.08633011Ian Seymour · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs 
L6.09396133
L6.09396133Aug 9@ W6.09875211
W6.09875211Aug 3@ W6.09097022
W6.09097022Jul 29vs 
W4.2*7142100
W4.2*7142100Jul 23@ L6.0*8775122
L6.0*8775122SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Shane Bieber
IPERAKHBB
vs TBR6.02.25elite3.04.01.0(2)
at TBR—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 23vs W7.08633011
W7.08633011Sep 26vs W5.09035222
W5.09035222Ian Seymour
IPERAKHBB
vs TOR—
home starts4.57.91poor6.06.02.0(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L6.09396133
L6.09396133Jul 12vs L3.17836356
L3.17836356Trends · TOR
- TOR are 3-9 vs TBR this season (12 games).
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 6-4 in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 3-2 in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-3 in Shane Bieber's last 5 away starts.
- TOR average 4.2 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR average 4.0 runs/game in Shane Bieber's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TOR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- TOR are 2-3 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 5 starts.
- TOR are 2-1 to the over in Shane Bieber's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TBR
- TBR are 9-3 vs TOR this season (12 games).
- TBR are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 2-3 in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 2-3 in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.
- TBR average 5.6 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR average 3.4 runs/game in Ian Seymour's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TBR are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TBR are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TBR are 1-4 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 5 starts.
- TBR are 0-3 to the over in Ian Seymour's last 3 home starts.
Flags · 6
- TBR bullpen elevated (5.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TOR — Shane Bieber: 2026-08-09: 5 ER in 5.2 IP (ERA equiv 9) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- TOR — Shane Bieber: recent opponents high-K: HOU 26%, NYY 30% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-29, 2026-07-23 — may affect pitch count or availability
- TBR — Ian Seymour: recent opponents high-K: SEA 29%, BAL 25% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
Shane Bieber u3.5 Ks (+100)
TBR barely strikes out at a 14.2 K% vs RHP over its last 6, and Bieber has managed just 3 Ks in each of his two starts against them. His recent strikeout totals were built against high-whiff lineups (HOU 26%, NYY 30%), inflating his 19.7 K% over his last 3. Getting plus money on the under against a contact-heavy lineup he already fails to miss bats against is a clear overpay on the over.
ATH @ KCR2:10 PM · Kauffman Stadium
ATH @ KCRMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Gage Jump L
xERA4.43 (avg)ERA6.60 (poor)K%23.9 (good)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%4.8 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.3PC/gs96BB%16.9
KCR vs LHP · last 6
wRC+121 (above)12+99 (avg)K%19.4 (above)HH%39.1 (avg)Whiff%16.5 (elite)
Randy Dobnak R
xERA4.03 (avg)ERA2.87 (elite)K%15.7 (below)
More Stats
HH%35.9 (avg)Barrel%3.8 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs92BB%8.6
ATH vs RHP · last 6
wRC+121 (above)12+110 (avg)K%12.2 (elite)HH%35.2 (avg)Whiff%19.5 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATH
xERA 4.80 (below)ERA 7.09 (poor)2d stress Stressed (6.3 IP/1g)
KCR
xERA 4.57 (below)ERA 3.92 (avg)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATH+126+1.5 (-170)O8.5 (+100)KCR-134-1.5 (+150)U8.0 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATH+106+0.5 (-135)O4.5 (-115)KCR-130-0.5 (+104)U4.5 (-113)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATH3.5 (-122/-104)1.5 (-140/+110)KCR4.5 (+118/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGage Jump4.5 (-150 / +126)17.5 (-110 / +102)Randy Dobnak3.5 (+122 / -147)16.5 (-133 / +100)
Gage Jump · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs W5.110113433
W5.110113433Aug 8@ 
W6.0100116222
W6.0100116222Aug 2vs L3.28854666
L3.28854666Jul 28vs W6.09073400
W6.09073400Jul 22@ L4.28358466
L4.28358466Randy Dobnak · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ 
L5.29364200
L5.29364200Aug 9vs L5.094410144
L5.094410144Aug 4vs W5.09013311
W5.09013311Jul 29@ W7.010144100
W7.010144100Jul 23@ L5.07634100
L5.07634100SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Randy Dobnak
IPERAKHBB
vs ATH—
home starts4.73.83avg2.75.72.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 9vs L5.094410144
L5.094410144Aug 4vs W5.09013311
W5.09013311Jul 18vs W4.19634411
W4.19634411Trends · ATH
- ATH are 2-4 vs KCR this season (6 games).
- ATH are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 3-2 in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 2-3 in Gage Jump's last 5 away starts.
- ATH average 4.8 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH average 3.6 runs/game in Gage Jump's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATH are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATH are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATH are 3-2 to the over in Gage Jump's last 5 starts.
- ATH are 1-2 to the over in Gage Jump's last 3 away starts.
Trends · KCR
- KCR are 4-2 vs ATH this season (6 games).
- KCR are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- KCR have won 4 straight.
- KCR are 2-3 in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 2-1 in Randy Dobnak's last 3 home starts.
- KCR average 3.4 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR average 5.3 runs/game in Randy Dobnak's last 3 home starts.
Over / Under
- KCR are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- KCR are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- KCR are 2-3 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 5 starts.
- KCR are 1-2 to the over in Randy Dobnak's last 3 home starts.
Weather
82°F, Wind 5 mph NE
Flags · 7
- ATH bullpen stressed (6.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- KCR bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATH — Gage Jump: last start: 101 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
- ATH — Gage Jump: 2026-08-02: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- ATH — Gage Jump: high-K outing 2026-08-08 (11 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- ATH — Gage Jump: low-K outing 2026-08-14 (1 Ks vs avg 5.7) — stuff was flat that day
- KCR — Randy Dobnak: 2026-08-09: 4 ER in 5.0 IP (ERA equiv 7) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
AI Analysis
Both lineups are hot over their last 6 against mediocre starters, but KCR's 121 wRC+ vs LHP is a heater sitting well above its 99 over the last 12, and the total already reflects the lively run environment.
ATL @ CHW✓2:10 PM · Rate Field
ATL @ CHW✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Grant Holmes R
xERA4.16 (avg)ERA3.45 (good)K%15.6 (below)
More Stats
HH%43.8 (below)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs71BB%9.4
CHW vs RHP · last 6
wRC+137 (elite)12+123 (above)K%18.6 (above)HH%37.6 (avg)Whiff%25.6 (below)
Anthony Kay L
xERA3.72 (good)ERA2.55 (elite)K%14.9 (below)
More Stats
HH%42.4 (below)Barrel%6.8 (good)IP/gs5.9 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs86BB%4.0
ATL vs LHP · last 6
wRC+88 (below)12+110 (avg)K%21.3 (avg)HH%31.4 (below)Whiff%21.1 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
ATL
xERA 4.21 (avg)ERA 4.38 (avg)2d stress Fresh (1.3 IP/1g)
CHW
xERA 3.33 (good)ERA 2.93 (elite)2d stress Stressed (7.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalATL-105-1.5 (+149)O8.5 (-114)CHW-102+1.5 (-178)U8.5 (-105)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalATL-110-0.5 (+122)O4.5 (-125)CHW-112+0.5 (-160)U4.5 (-104)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UATL4.5 (+106/-135)2.5 (+120/-154)CHW4.5 (+114/+110)2.5 (+110/-140)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGrant Holmes4.5 (+124 / -148)14.5 (-146 / +114)Anthony Kay4.5 (+119 / -150)15.5 (+105 / -126)
Grant Holmes · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15vs L3.26536366
L3.26536366Aug 9@ W6.07723200
W6.07723200Aug 4vs W6.07255100
W6.07255100Jul 30vs W4.26945233
W4.26945233Jul 24@ W5.09156233
W5.09156233Anthony Kay · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W5.18646133
W5.18646133Aug 8vs W6.08346122
W6.08346122Aug 2@ W6.18937100
W6.18937100Jul 28vs L5.19775133
L5.19775133Jul 22@ W5.07945222
W5.07945222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Grant Holmes
IPERAKHBB
vs CHW3.28.44poor2.04.02.0(1)
at CHW3.28.44poor2.04.02.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 9@ L3.26724233
L3.26724233Anthony Kay
IPERAKHBB
vs ATL—
home starts5.43.89avg5.05.01.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W6.08346122
W6.08346122Jul 28vs L5.19775133
L5.19775133Jul 9vs L5.19244222
L5.19244222Trends · ATL
- ATL are 0-3 vs CHW this season (3 games).
- ATL are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 4-1 in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 3-2 in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.
- ATL average 4.2 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL average 3.4 runs/game in Grant Holmes's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- ATL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- ATL are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- ATL are 2-3 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 5 starts.
- ATL are 1-2 to the over in Grant Holmes's last 3 away starts.
Trends · CHW
- CHW are 3-0 vs ATL this season (3 games).
- CHW are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 4-1 in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 2-3 in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
- CHW average 5.0 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW average 3.8 runs/game in Anthony Kay's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- CHW are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- CHW are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- CHW are 2-3 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 5 starts.
- CHW are 1-2 to the over in Anthony Kay's last 3 home starts.
Weather
74°F, Wind 10 mph NNE
Flags · 5
- ATL bullpen fresh (1.3 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- CHW bullpen stressed (7.7 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- ATL — Grant Holmes: last start: 65 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- ATL — Grant Holmes: 2026-08-15: 6 ER in 3.2 IP (ERA equiv 17) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- WEATHER: wind across the field 10 mph from the NNE — little effect on carry either way
CHW ML (-102)
CHW's offense is scorching at 137 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 and 123 over its last 12 against Holmes' 4.16 xERA over his last 3, while ATL is cold at 88 wRC+ vs LHP over its last 6. CHW also owns the far better relief corps at 3.33 xERA over its last 12 versus ATL's 4.21. For the home side holding the offensive and bullpen edges, an even-money price undervalues them.
SEA @ MIL✓2:10 PM · American Family Field
SEA @ MIL✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
George Kirby R
xERA3.04 (good)ERA3.24 (good)K%10.0 (poor)
More Stats
HH%35.1 (avg)Barrel%5.3 (good)IP/gs5.6 IP/gsH/gs5.7PC/gs97BB%8.6
MIL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+119 (above)12+101 (avg)K%21.2 (avg)HH%54.1 (elite)Whiff%24.0 (avg)
Robert Gasser L
xERA5.29 (poor)ERA3.94 (avg)K%22.2 (avg)
More Stats
HH%46.9 (poor)Barrel%10.2 (avg)IP/gs5.3 IP/gsH/gs6.3PC/gs91BB%6.9
SEA vs LHP · last 6
wRC+86 (below)12+72 (poor)K%29.0 (poor)HH%44.6 (above)Whiff%24.4 (avg)
Bullpens · Last 12
SEA
xERA 4.47 (avg)ERA 8.78 (poor)2d stress Normal (3.3 IP/1g)
MIL
xERA 2.12 (elite)ERA 1.91 (elite)2d stress Elevated (4.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalSEA+119+1.5 (-190)O8.0 (-106)MIL-124-1.5 (+158)U8.0 (-109)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalSEA+100+0.5 (-144)O4.5 (-102)MIL-124-0.5 (+110)U4.5 (-128)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/USEA3.5 (-125/+100)1.5 (-145/+114)MIL4.5 (+120/+112)2.5 (+124/-160)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGeorge Kirby4.5 (-130 / +108)17.5 (+107 / -130)Robert Gasser5.5 (+124 / -154)17.5 (-104 / -114)
George Kirby · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14@ L4.29928355
L4.29928355Aug 8vs L5.09924211
L5.09924211Aug 2vs W7.09435100
W7.09435100Jul 27@ L4.06637077
L4.06637077Jul 20vs W6.08063100
W6.08063100Robert Gasser · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14@ 
L6.110278133
L6.110278133Aug 8vs W4.29437233
W4.29437233Aug 1@ W5.07664211
W5.07664211Jul 25vs W6.07745022
W6.07745022Jul 19vs W5.08653011
W5.08653011SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
George Kirby
IPERAKHBB
vs MIL6.06.00poor3.05.01.0(1)
at MIL—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 21vs L6.08335144
L6.08335144Robert Gasser
IPERAKHBB
vs SEA—
home starts5.13.55good4.05.00.7(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W4.29437233
W4.29437233Jul 25vs W6.07745022
W6.07745022Jul 19vs W5.08653011
W5.08653011Trends · SEA
- SEA are 1-1 vs MIL this season (2 games).
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 2-3 in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 1-4 in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.
- SEA average 5.4 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA average 3.0 runs/game in George Kirby's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- SEA are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- SEA are 4-1 to the over in George Kirby's last 5 starts.
- SEA are 2-1 to the over in George Kirby's last 3 away starts.
Trends · MIL
- MIL are 1-1 vs SEA this season (2 games).
- MIL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 4-1 in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 5-0 in Robert Gasser's last 5 home starts.
- MIL average 3.8 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL average 4.4 runs/game in Robert Gasser's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- MIL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- MIL are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- MIL are 2-3 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 5 starts.
- MIL are 2-1 to the over in Robert Gasser's last 3 home starts.
Flags · 3
- MIL bullpen elevated (4.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- SEA — George Kirby: 2026-08-14: 5 ER in 4.2 IP (ERA equiv 11) skewing 3-game ERA — other starts look better, don't overweight the ERA
- MIL — Robert Gasser: last start: 102 pitches — high pitch count, may be on shorter leash today
George Kirby u4.5 Ks (+113)
Kirby is running a 10.0 K% over his last 3 and has recorded just 3, 2, and 2 strikeouts in those starts, and he fanned only 3 in 6 innings the one time he faced this club. MIL makes plenty of contact at a 21.8 K% vs RHP over its last 6 with a 53.1 HH%, so there is no whiff spike coming. A line of 4.5 nearly doubles his recent per-start total, and getting plus money on the under is a clear mispricing.
MIL ML (-121)
Milwaukee's bullpen has been elite over its last 12 at a 2.41 xERA while Seattle's has cratered to a 9.24 ERA, a gap that decides late innings. Gasser has held up at home with a 3.55 ERA over his last 3 there and MIL has won its last 5 home starts behind him, while SEA's road bats managed just 3.0 runs per game over their last 5 SP starts. At home with that relief edge, MIL is worth more than this near-coinflip price.
NYY @ BAL6:35 PM · Oriole Park at Camden YardsRainy
NYY @ BALMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Gerrit Cole R
xERA3.37 (good)ERA1.93 (elite)K%25.7 (good)
More Stats
HH%44.0 (below)Barrel%2.0 (elite)IP/gs6.2 IP/gsH/gs5.0PC/gs89BB%6.8
BAL vs RHP · last 6
wRC+111 (avg)12+116 (above)K%23.7 (avg)HH%45.0 (elite)Whiff%27.6 (below)
Kyle Bradish R
xERA4.22 (avg)ERA3.00 (good)K%16.4 (below)
More Stats
HH%34.1 (good)Barrel%2.3 (elite)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs4.7PC/gs81BB%9.8
NYY vs RHP · last 6
wRC+49 (poor)12+73 (poor)K%30.1 (poor)HH%45.1 (elite)Whiff%26.9 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
NYY
xERA 2.93 (elite)ERA 1.93 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
BAL
xERA 3.07 (good)ERA 5.09 (below)2d stress Normal (2.7 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalNYY-118-1.5 (+136)O7.5 (-110)BAL+111+1.5 (-162)U7.5 (-104)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalNYY-130-0.5 (+112)O4.5 (+118)BAL+104+0.5 (-146)U4.5 (-154)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UNYY3.5 (-145/+114)1.5 (-145/+114)BAL3.5 (-106/-120)1.5 (-135/+105)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UGerrit Cole6.5 (-122 / +100)18.5 (+133 / +128)Kyle Bradish5.5 (-138 / +117)17.5 (-110 / -105)
Gerrit Cole · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14@ L6.08755212
L6.08755212Aug 8vs W7.08296022
W7.08296022Aug 2@ W5.29954311
W5.29954311Jul 28@ W6.09974200
W6.09974200Jul 22vs 
L7.093114033
L7.093114033Kyle Bradish · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 15@ W6.09337422
W6.09337422Aug 8@ L6.09845012
L6.09845012Aug 2vs L3.05332222
L3.05332222Jul 27@ W4.293410155
W4.293410155Jul 22@ W6.08944111
W6.08944111SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Kyle Bradish
IPERAKHBB
vs NYY4.74.50below6.34.02.3(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
May 13vs W6.010071300
W6.010071300May 2@ L4.08946455
L4.08946455Sep 28@ L4.06985022
L4.06985022home starts4.44.09avg3.31.73.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 2vs L3.05332222
L3.05332222Jul 11vs W6.29652211
W6.29652211Jun 28vs L4.08521534
L4.08521534Trends · NYY
- NYY are 7-2 vs BAL this season (9 games).
- NYY are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 5-5 in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 3-2 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 2-3 in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
- NYY average 2.8 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY average 1.4 runs/game in Gerrit Cole's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 games.
- NYY are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- NYY are 1-4 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 5 starts.
- NYY are 0-3 to the over in Gerrit Cole's last 3 away starts.
Trends · BAL
- BAL are 2-7 vs NYY this season (9 games).
- BAL are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 4-6 in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 3-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
- BAL average 3.6 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL average 5.2 runs/game in Kyle Bradish's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- BAL are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- BAL are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- BAL are 1-4 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 5 starts.
- BAL are 0-2 to the over in Kyle Bradish's last 2 home starts.
Weather · Rainy
77°F, Wind 12 mph SSE
· Rain possible (63%)
Flags · 5
- NYY bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- BAL — Kyle Bradish: recent opponents low-K: PHI 13%, TBR 14% — recent opponents make less contact; today's lineup may be tougher
- WEATHER: rain risk 63% — game delay or conditions may affect performance
- WEATHER: wind across the field 12 mph from the SSE — little effect on carry either way
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL East) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
AI Analysis
Cole's dominance and NYY's dreadful 49 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 argue for a quiet game, but a 63% rain risk adds too much variance to commit at these numbers.
WSN @ TEX8:05 PM · Globe Life Field (Retractable)
WSN @ TEXMatchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
Andrew Alvarez L
xERA3.90 (avg)ERA2.60 (elite)K%16.9 (below)
More Stats
HH%37.5 (avg)Barrel%4.2 (elite)IP/gs5.8 IP/gsH/gs2.7PC/gs76BB%7.7
TEX vs LHP · last 6
wRC+89 (below)12+95 (avg)K%19.8 (above)HH%40.6 (above)Whiff%17.4 (elite)
Jacob deGrom R
xERA4.43 (avg)ERA6.97 (poor)K%28.8 (elite)
More Stats
HH%43.3 (below)Barrel%6.7 (good)IP/gs3.4 IP/gsH/gs5.3PC/gs77BB%13.5
WSN vs RHP · last 6
wRC+77 (poor)12+96 (avg)K%22.4 (avg)HH%28.4 (poor)Whiff%20.0 (above)
Bullpens · Last 12
WSN
xERA 3.90 (avg)ERA 3.59 (good)2d stress Elevated (4.3 IP/1g)
TEX
xERA 3.88 (avg)ERA 4.84 (below)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalWSN+152+1.5 (-156)O7.5 (-110)TEX-158-1.5 (+135)U7.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalWSN+140+0.5 (-113)O3.5 (-146)TEX-176-0.5 (-115)U3.5 (+112)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/UWSN3.5 (+108/-135)1.5 (-105/-125)TEX4.5 (+120/-140)2.5 (+114/-145)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UAndrew Alvarez4.5 (+105 / -124)14.5 (-149 / +116)Jacob deGrom6.5 (+111 / -140)15.5 (-112 / -113)
Andrew Alvarez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14@ 
L5.27342122
L5.27342122Aug 8vs W5.17323111
W5.17323111Aug 3@ L6.18153322
L6.18153322Jul 27vs L4.1*8034311
L4.1*8034311Jul 20@ W4.17426333
W4.17426333Jacob deGrom · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 13@ L2.05336122
L2.05336122Aug 8vs W5.08893111
W5.08893111Aug 1@ L3.19137555
L3.19137555Jul 26vs L5.09047011
L5.09047011Jul 20vs L4.29767255
L4.29767255SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
Jacob deGrom
IPERAKHBB
vs WSN7.00.00elite8.02.00.0(1)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jun 7@ W7.08182000
W7.08182000home starts4.74.44avg6.35.71.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 8vs W5.08893111
W5.08893111Jul 26vs L5.09047011
L5.09047011Jul 20vs L4.29767255
L4.29767255Trends · WSN
- WSN are 1-1 vs TEX this season (2 games).
- WSN are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 2-8 in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 2-3 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-4 in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.
- WSN average 4.4 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN average 3.0 runs/game in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- WSN are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 games.
- WSN are 3-7 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- WSN are 2-3 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 5 starts.
- WSN are 1-2 to the over in Andrew Alvarez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · TEX
- TEX are 1-1 vs WSN this season (2 games).
- TEX are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 1-4 in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 3-2 in Jacob deGrom's last 5 home starts.
- TEX average 3.2 runs/game in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
- TEX average 5.8 runs/game in Jacob deGrom's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- TEX are 2-8 to the over in their last 10 games.
- TEX are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- TEX are 3-2 to the over in Jacob deGrom's last 5 starts.
- TEX are 2-1 to the over in Jacob deGrom's last 3 home starts.
Weather · Retractable
Flags · 11
- TEX — Jacob deGrom: avg 3.4 IP/gs — short outings, bullpen likely needed early
- WSN bullpen elevated (4.3 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TEX bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent bullpen appearance: 2026-07-27, 2026-07-12 — may affect pitch count or availability
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: last start: 73 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- WSN — Andrew Alvarez: recent opponents high-K: CIN 35%, NYM 27% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- TEX — Jacob deGrom: last start: 53 pitches — short outing, possible injury concern or early hook news ↗
- TEX — Jacob deGrom: high-K outing 2026-08-08 (9 Ks vs avg 5.0) — stuff can dominate; may not repeat
- TEX — Jacob deGrom: recent opponents high-K: HOU 26%, LAA 26% — K stats may be inflated vs strikeout-prone lineups
- WEATHER: wind blowing OUT 7 mph from the S (retractable roof — conditions apply only if open) — supports the over and HR props
- TREND: TEX — was shut out 6-0 last time out — due for some offensive regression
AI Analysis
deGrom's volatile short outings and the shutout-regression angle for TEX pull in opposite directions, leaving no clean edge at the posted prices.
LAA @ HOU✓8:10 PM · Daikin Park
LAA @ HOU✓Matchup · SP Last 3 / Team Last 6
G. Rodriguez R
xERA2.76 (elite)ERA4.80 (below)K%30.2 (elite)
More Stats
HH%33.3 (good)Barrel%8.3 (avg)IP/gs5.0 IP/gsH/gs3.3PC/gs90BB%11.1
HOU vs RHP · last 6
wRC+74 (poor)12+70 (poor)K%25.8 (below)HH%36.0 (avg)Whiff%25.1 (below)
Peter Lambert R
xERA2.65 (elite)ERA3.45 (good)K%26.2 (good)
More Stats
HH%25.0 (elite)Barrel%7.5 (good)IP/gs5.2 IP/gsH/gs4.0PC/gs92BB%10.8
LAA vs RHP · last 6
wRC+97 (avg)12+78 (poor)K%25.8 (below)HH%36.0 (avg)Whiff%27.7 (below)
Bullpens · Last 12
LAA
xERA 2.63 (elite)ERA 4.09 (avg)2d stress Fresh (2.0 IP/1g)
HOU
xERA 3.13 (good)ERA 2.73 (elite)2d stress Elevated (5.0 IP/1g)
Betting Odds · best of DK / FanDuel / Fanatics
Full Game
MLSpreadTotalLAA+164+1.5 (-136)O8.5 (-105)HOU-174-1.5 (+115)U8.5 (-114)
First 5 Innings
MLSpreadTotalLAA+144+0.5 (-104)O4.5 (-120)HOU-175-0.5 (-125)U4.5 (-108)
Team Totals
Full Game O/UF5 O/ULAA3.5 (-106/-120)1.5 (-135/+105)HOU4.5 (-108/-110)2.5 (-110/-120)
Pitcher Props
K O/UOuts O/UG. Rodriguez4.5 (-111 / +100)15.5 (-102 / -117)Peter Lambert5.5 (-106 / -119)17.5 (-113 / -105)
G. Rodriguez · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs L4.08953233
L4.08953233Aug 9@ L4.08384434
L4.08384434Aug 4@ L7.09863122
L7.09863122Jul 29vs L5.09865222
L5.09865222Jul 24@ L4.08036255
L4.08036255Peter Lambert · Last 5 Outings
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs W5.09664222
W5.09664222Aug 8@ L5.09735323
L5.09735323Aug 2vs W5.28383222
W5.28383222Jul 28@ W5.09067122
W5.09067122Jul 22vs W6.08936222
W6.08936222SP vs Opp / At Park · last 3 (2 seasons)
G. Rodriguez
IPERAKHBB
vs HOU5.03.56good6.05.52.0(2)
at HOU—
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 29vs L5.09865222
L5.09865222Jun 8vs L5.19266223
L5.19266223Peter Lambert
IPERAKHBB
vs LAA5.53.24good6.06.00.5(2)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Jul 28@ W5.09067122
W5.09067122Jun 10@ L6.19165022
L6.19165022home starts5.43.33good5.74.32.0(3)
DateOppResIPPCKHBBERR
Aug 14vs W5.09664222
W5.09664222Aug 2vs W5.28383222
W5.28383222Jul 22vs W6.08936222
W6.08936222Trends · LAA
- LAA are 5-7 vs HOU this season (12 games).
- LAA are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 0-5 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 2-3 in G. Rodriguez's last 5 away starts.
- LAA average 4.0 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA average 4.2 runs/game in G. Rodriguez's last 5 away starts.
Over / Under
- LAA are 1-9 to the over in their last 10 games.
- LAA are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 away games.
- LAA are 3-2 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 5 starts.
- LAA are 1-2 to the over in G. Rodriguez's last 3 away starts.
Trends · HOU
- HOU are 7-5 vs LAA this season (12 games).
- HOU are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 4-1 in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 4-1 in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
- HOU average 5.4 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU average 5.2 runs/game in Peter Lambert's last 5 home starts.
Over / Under
- HOU are 4-6 to the over in their last 10 games.
- HOU are 5-5 to the over in their last 10 home games.
- HOU are 1-4 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 5 starts.
- HOU are 1-2 to the over in Peter Lambert's last 3 home starts.
Flags · 3
- LAA bullpen fresh (2.0 IP over 1g) — manager may hook starter early; lean SP K/outs UNDER
- HOU bullpen elevated (5.0 IP over 1g) — manager likely leaves starter in longer; lean SP K/outs OVER
- TREND: DIVISIONAL GAME (AL West) — familiarity between rivals tends to narrow the talent gap; the underdog can carry a bit more value than the price suggests
LAA @ HOU u8.5 (-110)
Both starters own elite recent form — Rodriguez at a 2.76 xERA over his last 3 and Lambert at 2.65 xERA over his last 3 — and each faces a punchless lineup: HOU is a 68 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (75 over its last 12) and LAA a 94 wRC+ vs RHP over its last 6 (83 over its last 12). Both bullpens back it up, HOU at 3.06 xERA and LAA at 2.58 xERA over their last 12. Two elite arms against two poor offenses with quality relief behind them does not support a 8.5, and the market has this priced as an average run environment.
G. Rodriguez o4.5 Ks (-111)
Rodriguez carries a 30.2 K% over his last 3 and has struck out 6, 8, and 5 in those starts, clearing this number even in the two four-inning outings. HOU whiffs at a 23.5 K% vs RHP over its last 6, and he got 6 per start across two meetings with them. The line sits well below his recent output, and even a short leash does not threaten it given how many he misses per inning.